WHY HARRIS WILL WIN IN 2024

 

A stark feature of the 2024 USA Presidential race is that the central dispute is not over issues but rather whether America should remain an imperfect two party liberal globalist democracy or a nativist isolationist xenophobic autocracy. In the frenetic pitches to the finish line neither candidate is hiding their vision. As a result the conventional priorities in these tussles such as the economy, health care and taxes, while still important, are taking a back seat to the life or death struggle of what America stands for. The race is a statistical tie but Jay H. Ell believes Harris will win but before he gets there, there needs to be an explanation as to the state of play in what is being touted as the most important USA election since the Civil War. 

The Republican Party has dramatically morphed into a Trump cult which has ditched it's traditional platform of small government, low taxes, minimal regulation, internationalism and pro immigration. The result of this transformation is that this election is very difficult to read as differing coalitions of voters are being rapidly assembled. Kamala Harris the Democratic Party nominee has skillfully assembled a swath of Reagan, Bushes, and Trump luminaries who agree naught with her economic programs but back democracy. The gestalt of the business world is epitomized in that the world's richest man Elon Musk is out on the stump for Trump while Mark Cuban, a high profile role model billionaire entrepreneur, is going full tilt for Harris. 

The 2024 American Presidential election has ramifications not only for America but for the world. Trump is running on the fact that he is the isolationist strong man. He argues, when he is able to string a sentence together, that he is the solution to the chaotic mess that he maintains America is in at home and abroad. So his mantra is "Make America Great Again", again.  

Kamala Harris the Democratic candidate thrown into this race at a late stage has turned the contest into a referendum on Trump arguing that she is the change candidate. Hence at her packed out rallies, the crowd chant, "We are not going back". As Trump's America is autocratic the cry of "Freedom"is her central platform with special reference to reproductive freedom and in answer to the Heritage Foundation's blueprint for a Trump Presidency, "Project 25".

Reality seems removed from this momentous clash with the electorate apparently split, half believing that Trump is the simplistic answer to America's and the World's complex problems. So what will decide the outcome in a race that is currently tied? Traditionally issues and immediate past elections are guides. However never before has America faced a presidential candidate who is unabashedly pushing an authoritarian agenda. In addition he is exhibiting, on steroids, the impact of aging that drove Biden out of this race. His cult following backed by the cult media interpret his unhinged deteriorating behavior as Trump's genius or Trump being Trump. Alternatively they sanitize  his word salad or his dissembling, which he calls "weaving", into coherent policy.

So what are the purported issues? 

THE ISSUES

The bread and butter issues are the ones that purportedly this election is mainly about. Jay H. Ell will argue that they are not really but for completeness sake he will deal with them. Just for starters age was considered the most important issue. Biden had a disastrous first debate attributed to age, so exit Biden. Trump had a far worse second debate but he is still standing. The voters, ostensibly 80 percent of them, did not want a rematch between Biden and Trump, now they haven't got one. They are still apparently happy. So age and the fact that there is a new face isn't as relevant as the polls indicated they were  initially.

There are several areas that the voters tell the pundits that they are considering, usually from a list they are given  - the economy, illegal immigration, female reproductive rights are the top three. Trump leads in the first two and Harris in the third. Objectively the American economy has never been stronger, 4.1 percent unemployment, wage growth beating inflation with the latter coming down steadily, the stock market at record highs but, for whatever reasons the respondents to the poll questioners want the good old days of Trump who tanked the economy over Covid. 

Trump axed a bipartisan Republican led border deal as he openly opined he wanted to run on an unstable border. So in spite of that and the failure of his first term promises on security such as to build a wall that Mexico would pay for, the likely voters trust him more on this issue. Reproductive freedom is trusted more for Harris than Trump but he has claimed that he has given women everything they asked for by axing Roe v Wade and he invented IVF and a sizable number of females are buying the cant. 

So how is Harris, at least  attempting to respond to the "real" issues.

HARRIS

Try as Harris may. by showing empathy that inflation is higher than they would like it to be, presenting her plans that include  providing assistance for home purchase, child care allowance, home care for seniors and lowering taxes for the middle class and decreasing drug costs the perception remains that Trump is far better for the economy. Similarly the insane argument that Biden/Harris let in tens of millions of criminals, lunatics, rapists, drug peddlers does not seem to resonate in the polls that Trump is not with the program with his ridiculous claims. 

Harris has strung together a remarkable coalition. She is prosecuting the case with unbelievable skill, empathy, strength and joy. She is fearless walking into the lion's den and being interviewed by the cult media, Fox News. The Democratic protagonist is tireless in the home stretch playing to packed out crowds. She has presented a coherent manifesto and if it mattered the economists, even Murdoch's "Wall Street Journal" back it over Trump's inflationary mumbo jumbo.

However Trump, with regard to the "real" issues maintains that with him "You never had it so good". He is soft on policy rather leaning into what this election is really about.

TRUMP

Trump is unashamedly trumpeting fascist slogans. -"The immigrants are spoiling the blood of the country" and "If I lose it will be the fault of the jews", He has said that his former Military Chief of Staff should be "executed" and has stated that the January 6 insurrection was "a day of love".His central election platform is to round up 11 million "illegals" place them in detention camps and deport them. He rants that "The Enemy Within" is a larger threat, by far than Iran, China and Russia. He continues that he would be entitled to sic his justice department on his enemies like the "lunatic leftists, fascists and Marxists the worst of which are Nancy Pelosi and 'Shifty' Adam Schiff". Projection, denial, deflection and lies are such a daily fare that it is impossible to focus on any scandalous outburst as the next five have already hit the airspace. 

Trump is so incoherent on the stump to the extent that at last the conventional media are questioning his cognition. George Conway a prominent conservative lawyer, who almost took a job in his first administration, runs a website maintaining that he is according to psychiatric criteria a malignant narcissist and sociopath. 

Trump's cult status by definition makes his followers immovable - a third of American voters believe that "the immigrants are spoiling the blood of the country"

So why on earth is Trump, according to the polls, still in a statistical tie with Harris?

THE NEW ALIGNMENTS AND WHY

There is a rearrangement of the traditional demographics backing the two parties. Simplistically this election is being characterized as being a gender battle as women are flocking to Harris in droves. There are no signs that the Republican suburban women who switched to Biden in 2020 have returned to Trump, in fact there has been a greater move towards Harris. Up to ten percent of former members of the Republican Party are said to be supporting Harris. They are putting country over party as democracy is on the ballot as is character. The Mormons who have always broken for the Republicans are moving, especially in Arizona, towards Harris

 The Trade Union support is not fore square behind Harris in spite of the Biden/Harris Presidency being the most pro worker since FDR. Trump if the polling is right has increased his support among the young men of all demographics, white, Hispanic and African Americans. The male youth are mainly non college educated. Amateur psychologists would interpret that they need the testosterone overloaded Trump to help them tolerate that the younger women are getting ahead of them. They favor Vance's attitude that the other gender should be barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen. Jay H. Ell would put some of the Union members in the same category. 

Hispanic voters in general are continuing their drift to the Republicans. In 2020 there was a drift of about 15 percent from Hillary Clinton's 2016 number. Harris  had to have made up some ground in her Town Hall on Spanish TV where in a similar setting Trump bombed. She now has to forcefully remind them that it will be their doors that will be busted open by the militia when they are searching for the "11 million illegals"

WHY ARE 90 PERCENT OF REPUBLICANS BACKING TRUMP?

So the question is why are 90 percent of the Republican Party supporting this despicable con artist, why are young males rebelling and what is it with the Union members?

The Republican Party members backing Trump fall into a number of categories. There is the one issue, particularly backed by the Evangelicals namely anti abortion and anti reproductive rights voters and Trump has delivered and he will continue to do so. There are the cynics who believe all politicians are corrupt and Trump is by far the better at it - a businessman, a thug which is what you need in this world of dog eat dog, and Harris is no better. There are those that feel that voting for the Democrats is a policy stretch too far while some argue Trump is better for their pocket books.

Then there is the cult. Strictly speaking all his supporters are a part of the cult. Why would anyone vote for a cruel authoritarian vulgarian to negate the very constitution they all swear blind they believe in. For argument's sake the "pure" cult are those really but really regard the "Big Lie" as gospel and believe every conspiracy theory and even that "the immigrants are poisoning the blood of the people".

WELL WHY IS HARRIS GOING TO WIN?

Accepting the two assumptions, namely that this race is tied and that the battle is in the seven swing states, why does Jay H. Ell believe Harris will win?

Firstly, Trump is unraveling before the nation's eyes. "Just watch his rallies", invited Harris. These are now being run on the internet and every channel. "Fox News" are cutting away from them as they become more and more the theater of the absurd.The latest in La Trobe Pennsylvania, which was the home of the famed golfer Arnold Palmer,  where he inserted vulgarity on a level never witnessed when he discussed the late legend's genitalia. This drew a sharp rebuke from Palmer's family.  He also called his opponent sh.t!

He announced on Fox News that he is going to enjoin Rupert Murdoch the "Fox News" owner to axe any appearance of an opposing voice and any negative ad on the channel. Fox followed that braggadocio with a really tough interview the day after! In addition Trump has cancelled a number of appearances owing to "exhaustion". The rallies now have rows and rows of empty seats and visuals of audience members leaving before the end. He has also held election meetings, when time is short, in states which have no impact on the electoral college. 

Harris at her rallies is featuring the unhinged Trump on the jumbo screen inviting the crowd to literally watch him run against himself. 

The male youth vote is being courted by the most popular current politico, President Barak Obama, who is working overtime in the swing states. Mark Cuban is also an effective surrogate for this group. Moreover there are multiple organizations that have been  registering and canvassing the GenZ demographic for years. There are 13 million more voters on the rolls since last time out and half are young women, the most impacted by the Trump reproductive position. 

The toughest nut to crack is the male Union worker and rural demographic where former President Bill Clinton and Governor Walz are concentrating. Trump has no surrogates of the former Presidents' stature. Also Republicans are out on the stump for Harris including Liz Cheney the doyen of the former Republican Party, 

The Democratic Party have concentrated on decreasing rural Republican majorities in the swing states with reported small success. Also there are reports that women in that demographic are trending away from Trump.

The percentage of women that vote is 54 and they are far more mobilized because of reproductive rights. There are also referenda on abortion in several states and some awful down ballot Republican candidates in swing states. The current polling indicates that tickets will be split. The rationale presumably is that voters will axe Trump endorsed candidates and then vote for Trump. This is counterintuitive, there has to be some spill over effect.

Early voting has shown record turnouts which favor the Democrats. 

Having outlined all of the above and the race is still tied what will decide this race?

VOTER TURNOUT WILL BE THE DECIDER

Voter turnout will decide this election. The latter depends on the ground game. Trump axed the Republican infrastructure and has outsourced the "get out the vote" to inexperienced conservative Political Action Committees, chief of which is controlled by Elon Musk. The latter is still advertising for canvassers and in desperation dishing out a million dollars a day to a lucky Trump supporter. (That is illegal incidentally but who cares. The lead story in "The Guardian" outlines the fact that has been circulating the internet, that the paid uncommitted workers are not even knocking on some doors. This mess contrasts with tight long standing operation of the Democrats.

Harris has 2,500 paid organizers in 350 offices that have been in place since Biden days as well as an army of hundreds of thousands of volunteers. The NY Times  reported that in one week the campaign knocked on 600.000 doors, made 300,000 calls and had 63,000 volunteer shifts. Harris has even more money than Trump, significantly a ton more from small donors which translates into commitment and involvement.  Besides a billion dollars collected in a 100 days she has a Political Action Committee that has $700 million dollars to put out ads. 

Basically Trump is relying on his charisma to engender the enthusiasm of his base to voluntarily rush to the polls. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

This race that is being fought on values and character and will be decided by turnout is trending Harris . The question is what does Trump do when he loses? But that is a story for another blog on another day.