WHAT IF TRUMP LOSES 2024?

There is flat out panic among the Democrats, (D.P), largely engendered by the polls that see all the swing states within the margin of error coupled by the tied generic vote which the D.P. usually win hands down. Jay H. Ell believes that the polls in this evolving realigning political landscape are less reliable as predictors of the outcome. The other factor that is causing the D. P. angst is that the early GOP vote is higher than the traditional number. Ignored is the fact that the Republican Party is a cult and the cult leader told them to vote early this time around.

The polls don't seem to reflect what are the eyes are witnessing - enthusiastic rallies for Harris filling football stadiums and small unfilled venues for Trump where spectators stream out before the end. Nor can the polls calculate the full weight of the female vote, many of whom are silent and have been mobilized on reproductive care. Approximately 40 million have voted already with women representing 55 percent of that number.

Nor can the polls estimate the registered Republicans that are switched off by the fact that Trump has been labelled a Fascist. Most importantly what is left out is party organization. Harris is way ahead in the latter and for Trump to win he needs to get the low propensity young male voters to the polls. Hence Jay H. Ell blogged last week, "Why Harris Will Win in 2024". However because the general narrative is that Harris is on the way to an ignominious defeat nobody contemplates "What if Trump Loses?". 

 IF TRUMP LOSES

It is common cause what will happen if Trump wins. Even though he has done nought to organize his transition no one has any illusions as to what he will set about doing. He won't be able to do it all by a long shot and the institutions will hamper him somewhat but he will do enough to create chaos, social upheaval, an economic shambles internally and world disorder. More to the point what are the sequelae if he loses?  

There will be fruitless court challenges, attempts to persuade the states to change the  results and so on and so forth. He will challenge the results say they were manipulated, refer to the polls that his pollsters are currently flooding the zone with, blame crooked "sleepy Joe" and "corrupt KAmala" who registered the illegal immigrants to vote. He will warn that this corruption could cause violence, then "stand back and stand by" and  claim that whatever happens was "a protest against the election results".

 What Trump will do is predictable it is how the various constituencies around him will react and respond that is not. The latter include, the Biden administration, the legislative bodies, the legal system and his cult. How will outcomes be different this time around?

So let us look at the "Day After".

THE INSTITUTIONS POST ELECTION

Trump has no control over the Justice Department and most significantly any of the powers associated with the Presidency. Many of the shananogans seen last time out have been nullified by the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022. 

The Vice President who officiates at the counting of the electoral college slates is "lunatic, sh.t, dumb, low intellect, try for black, the worst Vice President ever", KA- ma- la. Harris is the Vice President and officiates over the vote count and her role has been legislatively confirmed as "nominal". So the ratification of the electoral college would have to go the vote of the legislators. Even assuming that Trump wins the Senate, (likely), and the House, (far less likely), the majority of Republicans in both the Senate and the House, in an electoral outcome most favorable to the Republicans would be at most ten of five hundred and thirty eight legislators. There will be enough votes from the Republican side in the Senate alone to see to it that the election results will be ratified. 

So Trump will have to try to sort it out at the State level. At best he could hope for delays in the ratification of results causing uncertainty, when of course anything can happen.

STATE SECRETARIES, ELECTORAL BOARDS AND LEGAL CHALLENGES

There are seven swing states six of them have Democratic Secretaries of State who oversea the elections. The seventh, Georgia, has Republican Secretary Raffensberger who refused last time out, when Trump was President to find him. "11,780 votes which is just one more than he needed". That phone call was recorded and Trump is facing State and Federal charges as a result. Trump thought he had hit the jackpot when the Georgia Electoral Board created rules whereby they could gum up the works if they just so desired. The Georgia State Court reversed their arbitrary efforts.  

What makes the ratification of elections dicey is because each county in each state has to ratify its own jurisdiction and it has been mooted that is where problems could arise. There are 3,144 counties in the United States.

Needless to say each party has mobilized an army of lawyers ready to act. If the 2020 election is anything to go by Trump initiated 62 legal challenges losing 61. The one case he won was on a technicality and changed nothing. However the legal threat is not negligible. All that is needed is one rogue judge. The Supreme Court record is not so hot either in a judgement in 2000 they declared George W Bush the winner of the election by overruling the Florida State Court where it had jurisdiction on matters of State affairs. Justice Anthony Scalia who wrote the majority 5-4 opinion openly stated that the decision was "shit", that it should not be regarded as a precedent and those protesting "should just get over it". However most of the issues that Trump brings before the courts are meritless and more often than not, just dismissed. Pre election attempts by Trump at voter suppression of groups that are more likely to favor Harris have been summarily dismissed thus far. 

It is fair comment that although Trump will go through the motions, his appeal to the decision makers in the swing states and  courts as well as his ability to exert the same pressure that he was able to exert on Vice President Pence in 2021 to stop the ratification of the election, all are minimal as compared last time around. The 2022 Electoral reform will make matters much more difficult. 

So what else may happen?

TRUMP'S CRIMINAL AND CIVIL LIABILITIES

If Trump loses, even if he wins, he walks slap bang into his sentencing for his 34 felonies on November 25th 2024. The legal fraternity have pointed out that even though he is a first offender, (sic), that if this was anyone else they would definitely facing prison time. He attempted to turn the proceedings into a circus and was found guilty ten times for contempt of court with the Judge even threatening to incarcerate him if he continued. In addition a factor in sentencing is whether the convicted felon shows remorse. Needless to say he has showed none, nada, nil zero. The judge can then decide whether or not he need go straight to jail or allow bail to continue while he appeals. 

Then there is all the other litigation, Federal and State criminal and wads of civil litigation. Federal Judge Chutkin in his arraignment for his doings on January 6 2020 will schedule hearings. She has shown no patience for his pleas that he is in a midst of an election. His documents trial which a Judge threw out, who he has incidentally indicated that she is on his short list to be his Attorney General, will be reversed on appeal and probably unceremoniously dumped off the case. 

He owes over $600,000,000 in awards against him in civil trials. Appeal Courts invariably reduce gigantic sums suggested by juries but you are still talking real money. Then there is a pile of civil litigation for those that claim damages for his alleged insurrection on January 6. All in all much to take in even for a seasoned litigant such as him.

The 64 billion dollar question is how this will impact his MAGA cult?

HOW WILL THE CULT REACT?

Implicit in all of this scenario is how will the Cult, the militant Cult that is, react. Last time out everyone knows what happened on January 6, why shouldn't there be a rerun? Trump hasn't called it quits yet, he still is claiming that he won in 2020. So it is a reasonable assumption that he is not going to give KAmala a call and say Mazel tov. He is already making it quite clear on the trail that the only way he can lose is if the election is stolen, or "rigged" as he likes to put it. What clues have we got that nobody is "standing by and getting ready?".

Trump called for support at every court appearance he has had since being the nominee. There has been no mass uprising or even big crowds of supporters. Maybe at best a hundred or so but for the most part curious bystanders. There have been threats of violence following his attacking Judges, witnesses and the like. Some really got violent such as the assault on the 82 year old husband of Nancy Pelosi.

  In fact there are no signs of an uprising. There is no overwhelming conviction to storm the Capital. Well over a thousand of the "patriotic political prisoners" are doing serious jail time. The leaders are doing up to twenty years. There have been no public demonstrations with new "patriotic" leaders  willing to step into the breech. 

This time out there will be security and police in place even if Trump once again calls for a "Day of Love" from the Elipse in Washington. So if Trump loses what else can happen?

COME JANUARY 6 2025

By January 6 2025 the court challenges will be over.  Trump  will claim foul and carrying on doing so. There may well be local protests and even in Washington. There will be isolated acts of violence.  There will be endless discussions whether Trump should be pardoned for his Federal Crimes. Even if he was there will still be the State charges and the civil litigation. So one way or another Trump will still be around for the foreseeable future. Maybe everyone will get tired of it all. Even "The Apprentice" was pulled for dwindling ratings. 

 AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Democrats should stop panicking and carry on with their comprehensive ground plan. Kamala should carry on packing the stadiums and get the message across that Biden's legislation specifically is directed at giving non college educated men, or women for that matter, "good paying jobs".