WHAT IF TRUMP LOSES 2024?

There is flat out panic among the Democrats, (D.P), largely engendered by the polls that see all the swing states within the margin of error coupled by the tied generic vote which the D.P. usually win hands down. Jay H. Ell believes that the polls in this evolving realigning political landscape are less reliable as predictors of the outcome. The other factor that is causing the D. P. angst is that the early GOP vote is higher than the traditional number. Ignored is the fact that the Republican Party is a cult and the cult leader told them to vote early this time around.

The polls don't seem to reflect what are the eyes are witnessing - enthusiastic rallies for Harris filling football stadiums and small unfilled venues for Trump where spectators stream out before the end. Nor can the polls calculate the full weight of the female vote, many of whom are silent and have been mobilized on reproductive care. Approximately 40 million have voted already with women representing 55 percent of that number.

Nor can the polls estimate the registered Republicans that are switched off by the fact that Trump has been labelled a Fascist. Most importantly what is left out is party organization. Harris is way ahead in the latter and for Trump to win he needs to get the low propensity young male voters to the polls. Hence Jay H. Ell blogged last week, "Why Harris Will Win in 2024". However because the general narrative is that Harris is on the way to an ignominious defeat nobody contemplates "What if Trump Loses?". 

 IF TRUMP LOSES

It is common cause what will happen if Trump wins. Even though he has done nought to organize his transition no one has any illusions as to what he will set about doing. He won't be able to do it all by a long shot and the institutions will hamper him somewhat but he will do enough to create chaos, social upheaval, an economic shambles internally and world disorder. More to the point what are the sequelae if he loses?  

There will be fruitless court challenges, attempts to persuade the states to change the  results and so on and so forth. He will challenge the results say they were manipulated, refer to the polls that his pollsters are currently flooding the zone with, blame crooked "sleepy Joe" and "corrupt KAmala" who registered the illegal immigrants to vote. He will warn that this corruption could cause violence, then "stand back and stand by" and  claim that whatever happens was "a protest against the election results".

 What Trump will do is predictable it is how the various constituencies around him will react and respond that is not. The latter include, the Biden administration, the legislative bodies, the legal system and his cult. How will outcomes be different this time around?

So let us look at the "Day After".

THE INSTITUTIONS POST ELECTION

Trump has no control over the Justice Department and most significantly any of the powers associated with the Presidency. Many of the shananogans seen last time out have been nullified by the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022. 

The Vice President who officiates at the counting of the electoral college slates is "lunatic, sh.t, dumb, low intellect, try for black, the worst Vice President ever", KA- ma- la. Harris is the Vice President and officiates over the vote count and her role has been legislatively confirmed as "nominal". So the ratification of the electoral college would have to go the vote of the legislators. Even assuming that Trump wins the Senate, (likely), and the House, (far less likely), the majority of Republicans in both the Senate and the House, in an electoral outcome most favorable to the Republicans would be at most ten of five hundred and thirty eight legislators. There will be enough votes from the Republican side in the Senate alone to see to it that the election results will be ratified. 

So Trump will have to try to sort it out at the State level. At best he could hope for delays in the ratification of results causing uncertainty, when of course anything can happen.

STATE SECRETARIES, ELECTORAL BOARDS AND LEGAL CHALLENGES

There are seven swing states six of them have Democratic Secretaries of State who oversea the elections. The seventh, Georgia, has Republican Secretary Raffensberger who refused last time out, when Trump was President to find him. "11,780 votes which is just one more than he needed". That phone call was recorded and Trump is facing State and Federal charges as a result. Trump thought he had hit the jackpot when the Georgia Electoral Board created rules whereby they could gum up the works if they just so desired. The Georgia State Court reversed their arbitrary efforts.  

What makes the ratification of elections dicey is because each county in each state has to ratify its own jurisdiction and it has been mooted that is where problems could arise. There are 3,144 counties in the United States.

Needless to say each party has mobilized an army of lawyers ready to act. If the 2020 election is anything to go by Trump initiated 62 legal challenges losing 61. The one case he won was on a technicality and changed nothing. However the legal threat is not negligible. All that is needed is one rogue judge. The Supreme Court record is not so hot either in a judgement in 2000 they declared George W Bush the winner of the election by overruling the Florida State Court where it had jurisdiction on matters of State affairs. Justice Anthony Scalia who wrote the majority 5-4 opinion openly stated that the decision was "shit", that it should not be regarded as a precedent and those protesting "should just get over it". However most of the issues that Trump brings before the courts are meritless and more often than not, just dismissed. Pre election attempts by Trump at voter suppression of groups that are more likely to favor Harris have been summarily dismissed thus far. 

It is fair comment that although Trump will go through the motions, his appeal to the decision makers in the swing states and  courts as well as his ability to exert the same pressure that he was able to exert on Vice President Pence in 2021 to stop the ratification of the election, all are minimal as compared last time around. The 2022 Electoral reform will make matters much more difficult. 

So what else may happen?

TRUMP'S CRIMINAL AND CIVIL LIABILITIES

If Trump loses, even if he wins, he walks slap bang into his sentencing for his 34 felonies on November 25th 2024. The legal fraternity have pointed out that even though he is a first offender, (sic), that if this was anyone else they would definitely facing prison time. He attempted to turn the proceedings into a circus and was found guilty ten times for contempt of court with the Judge even threatening to incarcerate him if he continued. In addition a factor in sentencing is whether the convicted felon shows remorse. Needless to say he has showed none, nada, nil zero. The judge can then decide whether or not he need go straight to jail or allow bail to continue while he appeals. 

Then there is all the other litigation, Federal and State criminal and wads of civil litigation. Federal Judge Chutkin in his arraignment for his doings on January 6 2020 will schedule hearings. She has shown no patience for his pleas that he is in a midst of an election. His documents trial which a Judge threw out, who he has incidentally indicated that she is on his short list to be his Attorney General, will be reversed on appeal and probably unceremoniously dumped off the case. 

He owes over $600,000,000 in awards against him in civil trials. Appeal Courts invariably reduce gigantic sums suggested by juries but you are still talking real money. Then there is a pile of civil litigation for those that claim damages for his alleged insurrection on January 6. All in all much to take in even for a seasoned litigant such as him.

The 64 billion dollar question is how this will impact his MAGA cult?

HOW WILL THE CULT REACT?

Implicit in all of this scenario is how will the Cult, the militant Cult that is, react. Last time out everyone knows what happened on January 6, why shouldn't there be a rerun? Trump hasn't called it quits yet, he still is claiming that he won in 2020. So it is a reasonable assumption that he is not going to give KAmala a call and say Mazel tov. He is already making it quite clear on the trail that the only way he can lose is if the election is stolen, or "rigged" as he likes to put it. What clues have we got that nobody is "standing by and getting ready?".

Trump called for support at every court appearance he has had since being the nominee. There has been no mass uprising or even big crowds of supporters. Maybe at best a hundred or so but for the most part curious bystanders. There have been threats of violence following his attacking Judges, witnesses and the like. Some really got violent such as the assault on the 82 year old husband of Nancy Pelosi.

  In fact there are no signs of an uprising. There is no overwhelming conviction to storm the Capital. Well over a thousand of the "patriotic political prisoners" are doing serious jail time. The leaders are doing up to twenty years. There have been no public demonstrations with new "patriotic" leaders  willing to step into the breech. 

This time out there will be security and police in place even if Trump once again calls for a "Day of Love" from the Elipse in Washington. So if Trump loses what else can happen?

COME JANUARY 6 2025

By January 6 2025 the court challenges will be over.  Trump  will claim foul and carrying on doing so. There may well be local protests and even in Washington. There will be isolated acts of violence.  There will be endless discussions whether Trump should be pardoned for his Federal Crimes. Even if he was there will still be the State charges and the civil litigation. So one way or another Trump will still be around for the foreseeable future. Maybe everyone will get tired of it all. Even "The Apprentice" was pulled for dwindling ratings. 

 AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Democrats should stop panicking and carry on with their comprehensive ground plan. Kamala should carry on packing the stadiums and get the message across that Biden's legislation specifically is directed at giving non college educated men, or women for that matter, "good paying jobs". 

 

WHY HARRIS WILL WIN IN 2024

 

A stark feature of the 2024 USA Presidential race is that the central dispute is not over issues but rather whether America should remain an imperfect two party liberal globalist democracy or a nativist isolationist xenophobic autocracy. In the frenetic pitches to the finish line neither candidate is hiding their vision. As a result the conventional priorities in these tussles such as the economy, health care and taxes, while still important, are taking a back seat to the life or death struggle of what America stands for. The race is a statistical tie but Jay H. Ell believes Harris will win but before he gets there, there needs to be an explanation as to the state of play in what is being touted as the most important USA election since the Civil War. 

The Republican Party has dramatically morphed into a Trump cult which has ditched it's traditional platform of small government, low taxes, minimal regulation, internationalism and pro immigration. The result of this transformation is that this election is very difficult to read as differing coalitions of voters are being rapidly assembled. Kamala Harris the Democratic Party nominee has skillfully assembled a swath of Reagan, Bushes, and Trump luminaries who agree naught with her economic programs but back democracy. The gestalt of the business world is epitomized in that the world's richest man Elon Musk is out on the stump for Trump while Mark Cuban, a high profile role model billionaire entrepreneur, is going full tilt for Harris. 

The 2024 American Presidential election has ramifications not only for America but for the world. Trump is running on the fact that he is the isolationist strong man. He argues, when he is able to string a sentence together, that he is the solution to the chaotic mess that he maintains America is in at home and abroad. So his mantra is "Make America Great Again", again.  

Kamala Harris the Democratic candidate thrown into this race at a late stage has turned the contest into a referendum on Trump arguing that she is the change candidate. Hence at her packed out rallies, the crowd chant, "We are not going back". As Trump's America is autocratic the cry of "Freedom"is her central platform with special reference to reproductive freedom and in answer to the Heritage Foundation's blueprint for a Trump Presidency, "Project 25".

Reality seems removed from this momentous clash with the electorate apparently split, half believing that Trump is the simplistic answer to America's and the World's complex problems. So what will decide the outcome in a race that is currently tied? Traditionally issues and immediate past elections are guides. However never before has America faced a presidential candidate who is unabashedly pushing an authoritarian agenda. In addition he is exhibiting, on steroids, the impact of aging that drove Biden out of this race. His cult following backed by the cult media interpret his unhinged deteriorating behavior as Trump's genius or Trump being Trump. Alternatively they sanitize  his word salad or his dissembling, which he calls "weaving", into coherent policy.

So what are the purported issues? 

THE ISSUES

The bread and butter issues are the ones that purportedly this election is mainly about. Jay H. Ell will argue that they are not really but for completeness sake he will deal with them. Just for starters age was considered the most important issue. Biden had a disastrous first debate attributed to age, so exit Biden. Trump had a far worse second debate but he is still standing. The voters, ostensibly 80 percent of them, did not want a rematch between Biden and Trump, now they haven't got one. They are still apparently happy. So age and the fact that there is a new face isn't as relevant as the polls indicated they were  initially.

There are several areas that the voters tell the pundits that they are considering, usually from a list they are given  - the economy, illegal immigration, female reproductive rights are the top three. Trump leads in the first two and Harris in the third. Objectively the American economy has never been stronger, 4.1 percent unemployment, wage growth beating inflation with the latter coming down steadily, the stock market at record highs but, for whatever reasons the respondents to the poll questioners want the good old days of Trump who tanked the economy over Covid. 

Trump axed a bipartisan Republican led border deal as he openly opined he wanted to run on an unstable border. So in spite of that and the failure of his first term promises on security such as to build a wall that Mexico would pay for, the likely voters trust him more on this issue. Reproductive freedom is trusted more for Harris than Trump but he has claimed that he has given women everything they asked for by axing Roe v Wade and he invented IVF and a sizable number of females are buying the cant. 

So how is Harris, at least  attempting to respond to the "real" issues.

HARRIS

Try as Harris may. by showing empathy that inflation is higher than they would like it to be, presenting her plans that include  providing assistance for home purchase, child care allowance, home care for seniors and lowering taxes for the middle class and decreasing drug costs the perception remains that Trump is far better for the economy. Similarly the insane argument that Biden/Harris let in tens of millions of criminals, lunatics, rapists, drug peddlers does not seem to resonate in the polls that Trump is not with the program with his ridiculous claims. 

Harris has strung together a remarkable coalition. She is prosecuting the case with unbelievable skill, empathy, strength and joy. She is fearless walking into the lion's den and being interviewed by the cult media, Fox News. The Democratic protagonist is tireless in the home stretch playing to packed out crowds. She has presented a coherent manifesto and if it mattered the economists, even Murdoch's "Wall Street Journal" back it over Trump's inflationary mumbo jumbo.

However Trump, with regard to the "real" issues maintains that with him "You never had it so good". He is soft on policy rather leaning into what this election is really about.

TRUMP

Trump is unashamedly trumpeting fascist slogans. -"The immigrants are spoiling the blood of the country" and "If I lose it will be the fault of the jews", He has said that his former Military Chief of Staff should be "executed" and has stated that the January 6 insurrection was "a day of love".His central election platform is to round up 11 million "illegals" place them in detention camps and deport them. He rants that "The Enemy Within" is a larger threat, by far than Iran, China and Russia. He continues that he would be entitled to sic his justice department on his enemies like the "lunatic leftists, fascists and Marxists the worst of which are Nancy Pelosi and 'Shifty' Adam Schiff". Projection, denial, deflection and lies are such a daily fare that it is impossible to focus on any scandalous outburst as the next five have already hit the airspace. 

Trump is so incoherent on the stump to the extent that at last the conventional media are questioning his cognition. George Conway a prominent conservative lawyer, who almost took a job in his first administration, runs a website maintaining that he is according to psychiatric criteria a malignant narcissist and sociopath. 

Trump's cult status by definition makes his followers immovable - a third of American voters believe that "the immigrants are spoiling the blood of the country"

So why on earth is Trump, according to the polls, still in a statistical tie with Harris?

THE NEW ALIGNMENTS AND WHY

There is a rearrangement of the traditional demographics backing the two parties. Simplistically this election is being characterized as being a gender battle as women are flocking to Harris in droves. There are no signs that the Republican suburban women who switched to Biden in 2020 have returned to Trump, in fact there has been a greater move towards Harris. Up to ten percent of former members of the Republican Party are said to be supporting Harris. They are putting country over party as democracy is on the ballot as is character. The Mormons who have always broken for the Republicans are moving, especially in Arizona, towards Harris

 The Trade Union support is not fore square behind Harris in spite of the Biden/Harris Presidency being the most pro worker since FDR. Trump if the polling is right has increased his support among the young men of all demographics, white, Hispanic and African Americans. The male youth are mainly non college educated. Amateur psychologists would interpret that they need the testosterone overloaded Trump to help them tolerate that the younger women are getting ahead of them. They favor Vance's attitude that the other gender should be barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen. Jay H. Ell would put some of the Union members in the same category. 

Hispanic voters in general are continuing their drift to the Republicans. In 2020 there was a drift of about 15 percent from Hillary Clinton's 2016 number. Harris  had to have made up some ground in her Town Hall on Spanish TV where in a similar setting Trump bombed. She now has to forcefully remind them that it will be their doors that will be busted open by the militia when they are searching for the "11 million illegals"

WHY ARE 90 PERCENT OF REPUBLICANS BACKING TRUMP?

So the question is why are 90 percent of the Republican Party supporting this despicable con artist, why are young males rebelling and what is it with the Union members?

The Republican Party members backing Trump fall into a number of categories. There is the one issue, particularly backed by the Evangelicals namely anti abortion and anti reproductive rights voters and Trump has delivered and he will continue to do so. There are the cynics who believe all politicians are corrupt and Trump is by far the better at it - a businessman, a thug which is what you need in this world of dog eat dog, and Harris is no better. There are those that feel that voting for the Democrats is a policy stretch too far while some argue Trump is better for their pocket books.

Then there is the cult. Strictly speaking all his supporters are a part of the cult. Why would anyone vote for a cruel authoritarian vulgarian to negate the very constitution they all swear blind they believe in. For argument's sake the "pure" cult are those really but really regard the "Big Lie" as gospel and believe every conspiracy theory and even that "the immigrants are poisoning the blood of the people".

WELL WHY IS HARRIS GOING TO WIN?

Accepting the two assumptions, namely that this race is tied and that the battle is in the seven swing states, why does Jay H. Ell believe Harris will win?

Firstly, Trump is unraveling before the nation's eyes. "Just watch his rallies", invited Harris. These are now being run on the internet and every channel. "Fox News" are cutting away from them as they become more and more the theater of the absurd.The latest in La Trobe Pennsylvania, which was the home of the famed golfer Arnold Palmer,  where he inserted vulgarity on a level never witnessed when he discussed the late legend's genitalia. This drew a sharp rebuke from Palmer's family.  He also called his opponent sh.t!

He announced on Fox News that he is going to enjoin Rupert Murdoch the "Fox News" owner to axe any appearance of an opposing voice and any negative ad on the channel. Fox followed that braggadocio with a really tough interview the day after! In addition Trump has cancelled a number of appearances owing to "exhaustion". The rallies now have rows and rows of empty seats and visuals of audience members leaving before the end. He has also held election meetings, when time is short, in states which have no impact on the electoral college. 

Harris at her rallies is featuring the unhinged Trump on the jumbo screen inviting the crowd to literally watch him run against himself. 

The male youth vote is being courted by the most popular current politico, President Barak Obama, who is working overtime in the swing states. Mark Cuban is also an effective surrogate for this group. Moreover there are multiple organizations that have been  registering and canvassing the GenZ demographic for years. There are 13 million more voters on the rolls since last time out and half are young women, the most impacted by the Trump reproductive position. 

The toughest nut to crack is the male Union worker and rural demographic where former President Bill Clinton and Governor Walz are concentrating. Trump has no surrogates of the former Presidents' stature. Also Republicans are out on the stump for Harris including Liz Cheney the doyen of the former Republican Party, 

The Democratic Party have concentrated on decreasing rural Republican majorities in the swing states with reported small success. Also there are reports that women in that demographic are trending away from Trump.

The percentage of women that vote is 54 and they are far more mobilized because of reproductive rights. There are also referenda on abortion in several states and some awful down ballot Republican candidates in swing states. The current polling indicates that tickets will be split. The rationale presumably is that voters will axe Trump endorsed candidates and then vote for Trump. This is counterintuitive, there has to be some spill over effect.

Early voting has shown record turnouts which favor the Democrats. 

Having outlined all of the above and the race is still tied what will decide this race?

VOTER TURNOUT WILL BE THE DECIDER

Voter turnout will decide this election. The latter depends on the ground game. Trump axed the Republican infrastructure and has outsourced the "get out the vote" to inexperienced conservative Political Action Committees, chief of which is controlled by Elon Musk. The latter is still advertising for canvassers and in desperation dishing out a million dollars a day to a lucky Trump supporter. (That is illegal incidentally but who cares. The lead story in "The Guardian" outlines the fact that has been circulating the internet, that the paid uncommitted workers are not even knocking on some doors. This mess contrasts with tight long standing operation of the Democrats.

Harris has 2,500 paid organizers in 350 offices that have been in place since Biden days as well as an army of hundreds of thousands of volunteers. The NY Times  reported that in one week the campaign knocked on 600.000 doors, made 300,000 calls and had 63,000 volunteer shifts. Harris has even more money than Trump, significantly a ton more from small donors which translates into commitment and involvement.  Besides a billion dollars collected in a 100 days she has a Political Action Committee that has $700 million dollars to put out ads. 

Basically Trump is relying on his charisma to engender the enthusiasm of his base to voluntarily rush to the polls. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

This race that is being fought on values and character and will be decided by turnout is trending Harris . The question is what does Trump do when he loses? But that is a story for another blog on another day.

  

 

WATERGATE v JANUARY 6

 

Richard Nixon must be looking down from above or up from below,   whatever the case may be, and has to be wondering how on earth is Trump still standing. Nixon in a scandal named Watergate was hounded out of the Presidency by his own party for a fraction for what Trump did in a scandal labelled January 6. Both had been found by bipartisan Legislative committees to have violated their constitutional oaths. So why did Watergate cause such a national and even Republican Party revulsion that Nixon was forced to resign in 1974? And why has the Republican Party embraced, to put it at its lowest, a flawed standard bearer of their party in 2024?

Watergate was a merely a cover up by a President of a break into Democratic Party offices in order to get dirt on the opponents for the forthcoming election. Juxtapose that latter fact that the same Republican Party fifty years later in 2024 have as its Presidential candidate, a twice impeached, a judicially adjudged rapist, a convicted felon and an individual after losing an election and where a Legislative Committee found that he had  perpetrated an elaborate scheme to remain in power culminating in instigating an insurrection where he sicced the mob to kill his Vice President. The scandal collectively is referred to as January 6. 

 A central factor in this sordid degradation of a political party, which has boasted such icons as Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower and Reagan, was how the American citizenry received and processed information in the 1970's versus the manner in which they do in the second decade of the twenty - first century.  Another cardinal feature in Trump's survival was the differing interpretations by the Nixon and Trump Supreme Courts of whether or not the President has the divine rights of  kings. 

NEWS DISSEMINATION AND RECEPTION - CIRCA THE 1970'S AND THE INVESTIGATIVE HEARINGS OF WATERGATE

In the 1970's television had come into its own as a communication medium. There were three national networks with news channels that were available to all - NBC, CBC and ABC. News was confined to the distinctive slots in the day and everyone saw and heard more or less the same objective factual comment. CBS was the dominant network and their famed newscaster Walter Cronkite's view of the world was accepted as gospel. The famed Watergate Bipartisan Senate hearings took nearly three months and were broadcast live on all three channels. Ninety percent of Americans tuned in at one stage or another. It is important to note that in this era of broadcasting the segment of "The News" was not considered a "cost center", that is on its own it did not have to cover the costs of the news coverage. .  

The Watergate hearings were dramatic. John Dean, Nixon's WhiteHouse Counsel, who went along with the cover up till he didn't, evidenced that he had finally confronted Nixon warning him that, "there was a cancer on the Presidency". There was a procession of co conspirators in the WhiteHouse from Nixon's Chief of Staff to aides, to members of his cabinet and his re election committee members, all of whom subsequently resigned and/or ended up in jail. The smoking gun was produced by Alexander Butterfield, a Special Assistant, who gave the explosive evidence that there was a tape system in the President's Office. 

The upshot was the unanimous bipartisan decision of the Senate Hearing to recommend to the House to conduct an Impeachment Enquiry.

The Watergate scandal really broke as a result of relentless investigative reporting, primarily, by "The Washington Post" investigator journalists Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein. They subsequently wrote the first two books  that were considered the definitive works on the affair. "All The President's Men", subsequently made into a blockbuster movie staring Dustin Hoffman and Robert Redford, was a best seller for eons and was followed up by "The Final Days", another gripping non fictional narrative of how the saga all came to an end.

To sum up: The story of the Watergate scandal was told in an era where there was a singular version of news. Facts were facts and where the interpretation of them was obvious it was accepted by the overwhelming majority of the population and the legislature that represented them.

NEWS DISSEMINATION AND RECEPTION CIRCA THE TWENTY - FIRST CENTURY. 

The decade preceding the twentieth first century saw the breakneck evolution of the expansion of the internet more or less contemporaneously with the formation of the Cable News Networks. By the first decades of the 21st Century the internet expanded exponentially providing omultiple social and chat platforms, podcasts.visual networks and endless blogs. There was 24 hour news coverage and opinion and news programs became cost centers. In other words they needed high ratings in order to obtain the money to pay for their production, unlike in the 1970's. 

The initial Cable News outlets as did the internet splintered the body politic into separate camps, presenting news that bolstered their viewpoints. However this was only the beginning more significantly the focus was less and less on the news per se but rather on "opinion makers" who presented their interpretation of events. Today the latter dominate the information being received by the body politic. 

These burgeoning outlets assumed more and more sinister proportions by creating a dystopian environment appealing to specific identities. If anymore evidence is needed to illustrate the importance of these entities, Kamala Harris the Democratic nominee, who came into the race late and needs to present herself to the electorate, in one week had interviews with five different news sources within the space of a few days, all of which had audiences of differing identities. 

Thus the third millennium heralded a method of delivering and perceiving facts in total contrast to the "Watergate" era. The new paradigm laid the door wide open for distortion of reality and the presentation of fiction as fact - a "Post Truth" world. 

" THE POST TRUTH WORLD - THE ERA OF DONALD J. TRUMP".

The whole era of what was to become characterized by the word of the Year in 2016 as "Post Truth" was dominated by Donald J. Trump. The domain of "Post Truth" allows the exponent to create his or her own reality, regardless of the objective facts. 

It is in the milieu of multiple news sources that Donald J. Trump, objectively a fabulist, thrived. As a skillful communicator and a salesman par excellence, he could and did create a cult like following. Trump manufactured his own world whether it was that he was the most successful businessman ever, and that he was the defender of America to maintain its white Christian national identify - a man you could trust to act in your interests and manage anything and everything. He summed it all up. "I alone can fix it as I am very stable genius". 

Trump will go down in history as Plato's original "Post Truth" exponent. In fact he developed fictional reality into art form fifty years earlier than the Oxford Dictionary named "Post Truth" the word of the year. From claiming from the word go that he was the most eligible "man about town and the smartest business man alive" he lived up to the maxim that any publicity was good publicity especially as news sources began to propagate his worldview without questioning it.  

Six bankruptcies later and married to his third wife he emerged as a national figure through his role in a TV series "The Apprentice". There he strutted and preened and convinced America that he was the greatest businessman the world had ever seen. There is also a movie on "The Apprentice" which does not agree with Trump's assessment of himself.  

Trump gained more and more prominence over "The Apprentice" years, his major construction over that period was a "Trump Tower" in Chicago. The latter venture has been so financially calamitous that it has been declared a permanent loss. He is also being investigated by the IRS for double dipping on claiming that financial loss. Prior to the 2016 election he settled a claim for having estanlished a fraudulent University for $25 million dollars . He claimed it was a "great deal" because the attorney general demanded  $40 million for the defrauded students. His political credentials were established by a serial disinformation campaign that President Obama was born in Africa.

Notwithstanding his evil buffoonery Trump won the Republican nomination in 2016, partly as a reaction to the arrogance and hubris of decades of the Dole, Reagan and Bush dynasty but more as a result of the splitting of the news sources including the internet and the cynical yet dominant Murdoch/Ailes Fox News Empire. Then in a Black Swan sequence of events including an opponent who as a female was considered a siren not just a "glass breaking" ambitious politician, an arrogant FBI investigator and with more than a little help from his friend Vladimir, he became President.

Trump's mendacious Presidency can be summarized in a footnote, namely, that in four years The Washington Post documented over 30,000 lies. Then came the biggest of them all, The Big Lie, that he never lost the 2020 election. He therefore felt entitled to concoct a multi layered conspiracy to overturn the result so as to remain in power. This months long effort culminated in him inciting an insurrection on January 6, the day designated to formerly count the electoral votes and announce the name of the newly elected President. The attack on the Capitol produced such a sense of shock that the whole Trump episode of trying to subvert the will of the people was labeled January 6 - much like Nixon's criminality was referred to as Watergate.

THE HOUSE COMMITTEE'S INVESTIGATION OF JANUARY 6

As the news sources that provided the information were now multiple aiming at different identities and groups the House of Representatives' January 6 investigation could not engender viewers that unified the revulsion seen in Watergate. The House of Representative Republicans refused  to participate in the investigation because they broadly agreed with Trump that this was a "partisan witch hunt". Two breakaway Republicans joined the Democrats in a months long journey which produced new and breathtaking revelations as to the scope of the conspiracy. 

In the 2020's there were not daily broadcasts of the "January 6" Committee's proceedings. When the Committee did hold a TV hearing it was an hour long and garnered less than ten percent of the population's viewership. Of that number the news was being influenced by the political slant of the Cable Channels and social media anchors.

 In this milieu Trump in the years thereafter was able to claim that the convicted insurrectionists were patriots whom he would pardon, the brutality was from the Capitol's police, it was the Speaker Nancy Pelosi's responsibility to obtain security and she had refused to call for help and that the charges against him for inciting this sedition were an attack on a political opponent and election interference for 2024. The multipolar news landscape comfortably allowed the Republican Legislative Members to go along with this tissue of lies. 

So how does the Supreme Court fit into all of this?

THE SUPREME COURT ON WATERGATE AND JANUARY 6

Both President Nixon and President Trump had appointed three judges to the Supreme Court. Both Presidents claimed absolute power for their offices. Nixon maintained he had rights similar to that of  King Louis XIV. Trump maintained that he could order the Navy Seals to eliminate a political opponent. The power of the Presidency ultimately had to be decided by the Judiciary, the final arbiter being the Supreme Court.

Within two months of the Federal District Court ruling against Nixon, the Supreme Court speedily heard arguments and issued a unanimous decision against Nixon. Nixon was persuaded by his own party to avoid being axed by as President to resign.

The Federal District Court rejected Trump's aargumrnts on December 1, 2023, maintaining that the Presidency didn't confer on him the divine right of kings. Trump appealed the ruling and the Special Counsel asked the Supreme Court to hear arguments urgently as the Court had done in the Nixon litigation. The Robert's court demurred and sent the matter to the Federal Appeal Court. Trump having once again lost in that court the 45th President  appealed to the Supreme Court. The latter deferred their opinion on the matter till July 1, 2024, 7 months after the District's ruling, making it impossible for Trump's criminal trial to be heard before the November election.

With regard to Presidential immunity the Robert's Supreme Court ruled that any "official" action could not be prosecuted. As an example of an "official;" action they referred to the section of the criminal case against Trump where he offered to make a lowly Justice Department Attorney General if he agreed to send a letter to the States stating that the Justice Department was investigating possible election corruption. They opined that the trial Judge should adjudicate which other of Trump's actions were "private" and which were "official". The majority of the Court gave Trump even more leeway, ruling that if the President was charged with a criminal "private" act any corroboratory evidence arising from his actions in his "official" capacity could not be used against him. 

In effect the Supreme Court majority have abandoned the unanimous Nixon precedent. They willfully ignored the urgency of the situation declining to adjudicate the merits of the allegations against a candidate running for the Presidency who had been indicted of an insurrection. Surely it was in the country's interest to have the matter adjudicated prior to the election? 

WHERE DOES THE LEAVE THE MATTER NOW?

In this bizarre transformative historical period Donald J Trump has, if the polls are right, an even chance of becoming President again. He has formed a transactional alliance with the richest businessman on earth who has poured five hundred million dollars into Trump's campaign. This billionaire, Elon Musk, who has been offered a job in Trump's administration also happens to own the largest social media platform in the world where he spreads misinformation, largely to benefit Trump.  Elon Musk has 200,000 million followers on his platform "x" and has generated message after message with misinformation so as to favor Trump's candidacy. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

If the current Supreme Court had been sitting in 1974 Richard Nixon would not have had to obey the Subpoena and there would have been not been a Watergate. Despite the overwhelming evidence already out in the open there may not be a January 6 either. 

Bob Woodward of Watergate fame has written books on Trump and has little doubt which President is the worse. He has a new book "War" which has more block buster revelations as to Trump's malevolence.

On the bright side the other major candidate for the Presidency is a woman, a first generation immigrant of Jamaican and Asian parentage. So maybe all is not lost but at the end of the day it is pretty scary.