Yahya Sinwar the recently nominated political as well as being the military leader of Hamas, has flipped the narrative in the nearly year long Hamas/Israel war by barbarically cold bloodily brazenly murdering 6 young civilian hostages that were attending a Peace Festival on October 7. By so doing he has reminded the world what brought about this conflict. His shameless act has sequelae on many levels including reawakening the world's perception of his cause which certainly doesn't seek a "Two state solution". Rather it is "From the River to the Sea Palestine will be Free". Significantly it has bolstered the Prime Minister of Israel Bibi Netanyahu's argument to not conclude a hostage/cease fire deal which he reportedly accepted in April this year.
All this begs the question as to what Sinwar's objectives were in executing this move and how does it impact Israel, Israel's allies, the regional war and the Iran led "Resistance". One fact is for certain, this is a battle between the two decision makers who are both in a massive battle for survival - Sinwar for his life and Netanyahu for his political life, legal jeopardy and legacy. Notwithstanding the latter it has exacerbated the debate in Israel as to whether the return of their hostages or annihilating Hamas is the priority.
So onto Sinwar's modus operandi.
SINWAR THE UNCHALLENGED LEADER
Sinwar has no problems with his long suffering constituency. He has off handedly remarked that whatever number of Palestinians die in the aftermath of October 7 it would be a sacred sacrifice in a an Almighty cause. He relayed his motive for the September 1 barbarism through a spokesman maintaining that, that is his response when Israel attempts to rescue those he has sequestered in his tunnels.(A report in an Israeli daily newspaper claimed that he is surrounded in the tunnels by 22 hostages). He also believed, correctly, that the Israeli Premier would be subject to more and more pressure both externally and internally to agree to a cease fire in order to save the lives of those still living.
By unleashing October 7 the all powerful terrorist leader paradoxically gained unimaginable worldwide support. It brought latent anti semitism and hate to the boil as well as widespread advocacy for the Palestinian cause which grew and grew as the Hamas Department of Health reported its unverified casualty lists. September 1 made endorsement of his inhuman stand untenable. Prior to that the longer the war had dragged on the more distant October 7 had became and the more the media was dominated by the grey shambles and the death and misery the war was creating to the innocent Palestinians.
Not only is Sinwar unlikely to win friends and influence people he has placed his allies in an uncomfortable position. Iran which also have as a constitutional objective to get Jews off the land and into the sea, have made plaintiff noises via their new President, Massoud Pazeshktian, to alter the status quo as their natives become more and more restless as sanctions bite their economy. In addition much of their oil money is farmed out to their proxies. Thus far they have held back on retaliating to Israel's humiliating assassination of Sinwar's predecessor,The slaughter of innocents is hardly a spur for worldwide mass demonstrations in support in a shocked world.
Nor is it likely that the other "Resistance" members will up their games any further than they have already. Hezbollah the only other affiliate of the cabal that matters have repeatedly made it clear that they are not interested in an all out war with Israel. September 1 is unlikely to dissuade them.
Sinwar had to be pretty desperate to try this ploy but it is in his psyche. Behavior of religious jihadists don't change. Like all monsters they only have one playbook. He needs a ceasefire and a guarantee to a safe haven, He is no hurry to be the forty thousand and one Palestinian to be sacrificed for the cause, that is for the plebs.
Sinwar has done his worst and threatens more. So how will Bibi respond?
NETANYAHU RESPONDS
Bibi Netanyahu hasn't the luxury that his adversary has. The Israeli premier, up to the time of going into print, is in a democracy. Netanyahu has a fragile coalition dominated by two extremist parties, who represent an answer to Sinwar's absolutism. They would be happy to take Israel from "The Sea to the Jordan River" and both sides of the river if that was possible. But if opinion polls are right they and their handcuffed leader are by far in the minority. However the Israeli Premier still calls the shots even when the streets are chock a block with hundreds of thousands of protestors angrily frustratingly and imploringly demanding him to it call it a day and bring home the hostages. So what are the arguments?
The Israeli Prime Minister called a security cabinet meeting which leaked to the media. He argued that to bow to Hamas's barbarism was to reward their atrocities. He persisted with his deal breaking wrinkle to his negotiating strategy namely that he would not yield on Israel's right to maintain the territory outside of Gaza which was in fact Egyptian territory. Yielding the latter, "The Philadelphi Corridor", he debated would lead to another October 7, the hostages being moved out of Gaza and in summary an unacceptable threat to the security of the country.
The fight between the Israeli leader Defense Minister Gallant, who was backed by the chiefs of the armed forces and who was dismissive that the so called Philadelphi Corridor was crucial to Israel's safety burst into the public arena. It could easily be reconquered, should the need arise. Gallant blurted in word and in print and that Israel's decision maker's rationale was "A Disgrace". Due to the popularity of the Defense Minister's position there was no way Bibi could axe him from his Cabinet. This alone bore witness to the latter's insight as to how thin the ice was that he was standing on.
Israeli leaders soon joined Gallant with lengthy statements on TV. These included resigned members of the original National Unity War Cabinet, Bennie Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, both who have extensive military credentials. No one argued that the Corridor was not important but it could be easily be retaken if necessary. President Herzog the apolitical figurehead no longer felt constrained to remain quiet being mindful of the seething populations in the squares he lashed out that Netanyahu should seek unity and not even think of engaging in unilaterally changing the judicial system.
So the Prime Minister felt forced to hold a Press Conference, which he has avoided for months, to explain his strategy.
NETANYAHU'S PRESS CONFERENCE AND FOLLOW UP
In a disciplined fashion the Prime Minister outlined the security threat leaving the Gaza border would maintain, He also unprecedentedly made an apology to the families of the 6 dead youths.The problems arose with reporters' questions such as if the Philedelphi Corridor was so important why did he ignore it for 8 months? To the concept that it could be retaken he unbelievably maintained that the world wouldn't let him! He had no counter to the threat his decision would have on the fate of the kiboshing the deal on the table. He answered that no one had more empathy with the hostage families than him.
He grew testier and testier as the presser continued. He smeared, in authoritarian style, that the popular Gallant, a former Major General of the Army and Head of the Southern Command, of aiding the enemy Hamas. He expanded on his own average military career and sneered at a reporter's lack of it. Most significantly he has not uttered one coherent word about the day after. In this high stakes situation Netanyahu let the world know he was calling the shots.
Second thoughts emerged as the duplicitous Netanyahu's internal plight worsened. Rumors were buzzing that the heads of the Israeli Defense Force, Mossad and Shin Beit, the intelligence agencies, were ready to resign rather than be complicit in the abandonment of the hostages. Netanyahu leaked to the Press that he had informed the Qatari mediators that he would be prepared to leave the Philedelphi Corridor in the second phase of the deal if he was satisfied that the "smuggling" had stopped.
No longer could it be argued that there could be twin objectives - the total annihilation of Hamas and the release of hostages. A year into the war there had to be a choice.
WHAT ISRAEL CAN LOSE BY THE CURENT POSTURE
Biden has on the table a complicated deal that goes together with the ceasefire/hostage plan which will give Israel allies that it has only dreamed off. First and foremost Saudi Arabia which for its part will receive defensive weaponry in return. In addition a peace keeping force of Egypt, U.A. E. and Morocco are committed to takeover the responsibility of governing Gaza with a presence of the PLO. Israel security will be guaranteed. Netanyahu hasn't floated his obvious intent to occupy Gaza as the citizenry would not buy it.
An accord will allow a relieved Hezbollah to call it quits. Iran may well moderate its "retaliation" while with the powerful Sunni block on sides "The Resistance" may well look to a non aggression pact for the moment. The West Bank which at present is occupying 19 battalions might calm down with a ceasefire.
All this is lost because Netanyahu needs to show Sinwar who is the boss around here while hanging around in the hope that Trump will be elected and tell Israel "to do whatever the hell it wants to".
WHAT CAN BIDEN DO?
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