WHO CAN STOP KAMALA?

 

The Democratic nominee for President, Kamala Harris has momentum. There was an Obama like vibe emanating from the Democratic Party Convention. Kamala has raised 540 million dollars in five weeks and hundreds of thousands of volunteers have joined the stronger Democratic ground game. Donald Trump has extended Kamala's honeymoon, forecasting that she would receive a 2 to 3 percent post convention bump in her poll numbers because presumably that’s what happens, except, for him. That prediction would boost her to a nearly 6 point lead of all voters that would allow her to run the swing states that Biden chalked up in 2020. All in all pretty remarkable - the Administration candidate has become the change factor and the challenger the stale incumbent. But that is far from a done deal. There are demographics where Harris is behind.

The positive grateful humble Vice President Harris thus far has delivered a flawless campaign making a sharp contrast with the negative whining omnipotent victim that is her opponent. She is portraying the contrast between her and Trump, not in Biden’s dark terms but rather framing Trump as an “unserious man who can do serious harm", that he and his running mate Vance are “weird” and they are “out of their minds” with their policies. Joy and optimism versus darkness and fear.

The Democratic Party have refashioned their message. They, not the MAGA crowd, were waving flags and screaming USA USA. They, not the MAGA crowd, were claiming that America was the greatest country in the world. (The Trump team were adamant that America was in decline and the laughing stock of the world), They, not the MAGA crowd, were a big tent inviting everyone including former Republicans to come in. They, not the MAGA crowd, “were not going back” and “when we fight we win”.

The Harris ecstatic month long campaign with coach Walz success is reflected in the polls.Yet the stalwarts like former Presidents Clinton and Obama at the Democratic National Convention, warned the delirious crowd that the road to victory was paved with massive stumbling blocks which leads up to the question, “Who can stop Kamala?”. They are mindful of the fact that polls at best reflect trends, that elections are decided at the margins, that in reality to win convincingly one needs to persuade eligible voters that otherwise stay at home as well as swing voters, (only 67 percent voted in 2020 and 5 percent didn’t even register), that there are only 7 states that really matter, that a Presidential election tussle usually lasts two years and they had only 75 days to seal the deal, that certain key demographics were leaning towards Trump and that elections are won on the ground.

The exit of Joe Biden lightened the Democratic burden dramatically and once again made the election about the danger of a second Trump term. The demographics that Kamala has to focus on are crucial and to a certain extent overlap. One that is front and center is the white working rural class males in the Rust Belt, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If she won the latter she would win the election regardless of the outcome in the other purple states, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. 

THE WHITE MALE WORKERS IN THE MID WEST RUST BELT.

One of the reasons that Biden won in 2020 was that a slither of  Mid West white males came "home" .They were mostly without college degrees some of whom were in the rural areas. They had left the Democratic Party, (DP), in 2016 to vote for Trump. Biden had solid working class credentials which facilitated their  switch.

The MAGA Trump Party is now claiming to be the working class Party. The DP has reasserted its ownership as demonstrated at their Convention. The endorsement by nearly all the Unions, particularly and prominently the United Autoworker’s Union bears witness to their owning the mantle. Shawn Fain their leader is campaigning  and is “working on”  the 30 percent of the Union’s members who have supported Trump in the past. Harris et al are also parading Governor Walz, a regular rural football loving “coach” to  influence the turnout. Harris herself stood on the picket line but played a back seat to Biden so like with everything else has to introduce herself. 

The polls for the moment show her convincingly in the lead in the Rust Belt and interestingly Trump and Vance are campaigning in the area big time. It is believed that some of this turnaround since Biden exited is as a result of the pick up from other demographics such as the youth as well as the African American demographic rather than the white workers.

THE HISPANIC POPULATION

The DP has steadily lost the backing of the Hispanic peoples who are19 percent of the population. Since 2008 when Barak Obama captured 70 percent of the vote it has been downhill. Biden got 56 percent and his numbers were much lower at the time of his departure. Harris has picked up to match Biden's 2020 number and is on an upward trajectory. Voter Latino has for the first time in its history endorsed a Presidential candidate in supporting Kamala. 

The effort to mobilize the Latino demographic is ongoing and a 1000 are being registered to vote daily. The three States where they could swing an election are Nevada, Arizona with a very very outside chance in Texas. The DP has made an effort to nominate Latino candidates. Arizona has an excellent Hispanic candidate running for Senate, who like Jacky Rosen, (Nevada) and Colin Altred (Texas) were all well ahead of Biden in mid July. Polls show Harris benefiting from the down ballot. Obviously this is key area for Harris to improve in. These three states are near the border and in ads she is touting the bipartisan border policy which Trump got his minions to axe. 

The Hispanic surrogates are out with a vengeance especially Alex Padilla the eloquent and influential Senator from California.  This is Harris’s second toughest nut to crack in the limited time available. With a shocking MAGA election denier in the Senate race in Arizona she should win that State but the swing state of Nevada is another story.

THE YOUTH VOTE  

The youth vote across the board white, Hispanic and black were fazed out with Biden and have been energized by the Harris and Walz candidatures, Both are extremely popular on the social media sites. This time the DP are benefiting from the internet medium. The Gen Z's show potential for the Democratic ticket all round. They connect with the “touchy - feely” approach of the Harris led campaign.

The Biden Administration’s policy on the Israeli/Hamas war threatened to be a a youth issue that would mobilize against the DP with massive demonstrations during their Convention. This all proved to be hype and there were at most 3,000 demonstrators poorly organized from at least 10 organizations as opposed to 30 to a 100 thousand that the activists had promised. 

The Democratic response tone was set by the parents of a  hostage, Hersh Goldberg-Polin. in Hamas’s tunnels who  expressed empathy with the plight of the carnage that had taken place Gaza, While there was no daylight between what Biden has articulated, Harris came across in her inimitable style that has won the hearts and more importantly the votes of many. It is fair ro say that notwithstanding the fact that the DP position is where 90 percent of the country are the non presence of a Palestinian American speaker left a bitter taste in their proponents' mouths.

THE BLACK VOTE

There is hope that Harris can hit the Biden high of 92 percent of the Black vote in 2020. Biden had slumped to 77 percent in the polls and Harris has made up at least half the deficit. In the Rust Belt States of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin they are able to run up the numbers and could make the difference in Georgia which has a well oiled machine against the voter suppression tactics in that swing state. Georgia has voted against Trump and his candidates electing Democrats nationally. Trump has given his friends a little bit of help by attacking the Georgia Republican establishment who refused to collude in his election subversion tactics. 

THE GENDER GAP

Since 1996 there has been a gender gap among DP backers with more women than men favoring them. At present this is more marked with Kamala. However the important urban and suburban women vote remains solidly in her corner. With abortion referenda in several states this cycle the MAGA freak show is going to help the DP ticket. With regard to men it remains to be seen whether the EmhoffWalz version of the gender will fair better than the testosterone misogynistic rendition of MAGA.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Biden’s enduring political savvy is reflected in his choice of Kamala as the candidate. Harris’s nascent skills manifested with her pick of Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz is a Renaissance candidate with rural, Midwest, Muslim, youth and football support.

The September debate gives both candidates the opportunity to show their wares. These clashes have assumed  disproportionate significance as the first Biden/Trump event proved.

How long can Kamala go without making a mistake? Time will tell. Meantime she is on a trajectory to become the first woman to become President of the United States of America, something the MAGA King will not allow to happen without a protracted battle at least until inauguration day and if history is a guide, long after.