For almost light relief Jay H. Ell will write this blog about President "Old Joe" Biden. We all need a break from the dark Trump and the global horrors. Besides no one else is featuring him, which incidentally is to his advantage. The media scream at him to get his message out while implying that he is too moribund to do it. Yet all they do is run stories on Trump.
The 2024 election is going to be a referendum between two elderly "old" gentlemen and it is a well known electoral fact that whoever the contest is about is far more likely to lose. But that ignores the reality that Biden smashed the negative narratives doing the rounds in all the media, starting with his State of the Union, (SOTU), address, followed by a string of rallies, largely ignored by the media. Not that "Old Joe" doesn't face problems but more of that at the end.
Joe Biden who was written off as a walking corpse, delivered the world a master class as he kicked off his presidential campaign in the State of the Union address, by illustrating his uncanny skills as a politician. The MAGA narrative of “Sleepy Old Joe”, backed by the political hit job the special counsel, Robert Hur, who pontificated in his paternalistic gratuitous assessment of the mental apparatus of the President of The United States. The argument that Biden had degenerated to “A well meaning elderly man with a poor memory” was shattered in front of the nation. Hur, a Trump nominee, had been appointed by Biden’s Attorney General Garland, indicative of the latter's obsession to fall over backwards to project impartiality, to investigate "Old Joe's" inadvertent retention of classified documents. Hur was humiliated by the Democrats at a hearing the MAGA GOP held at Congress and proved biased by the panoramic display of Biden’s mental fitness at the SOTU address.
“ELDERLY,” OLD JOE
So a very low bar was set for the 46th President as the critics settled down for what they prognosticated would be a boring bipartisan insipid SOTU speech, praying that “the mumbler in chief” would at least not fall asleep at the podium. They all scrambled to rewrite their assessments changing their tunes in record time. One seriously wonders on what these overpaid pundits based their pompous observations on. If they had just reflected on what has happened before their own eyes over the past three years and even in the past three months or weeks they would not have been surprised at what they witnessed on March 7 2024 in the Capitol, which he reminded them was the self same venue as January 7, 2021.
This was the same "Old" Joe Biden who made a surprise trip half way across the world to resuscitate the shell shocked Israelis and can hold two thoughts at once - the right of the Israelis to defend themselves and see to the needs of the Palestinians caught in the middle. The same geriatric who organized the Covid response with troops in the cities and then in spite of protestations from the learned economists flooded the country with relief money. Following that he oversaw an economic recovery which was the most profound throughout the world even besting gangbusters China. This led Larry Kudlow, Trump’s former director of the National Economic Council, to exclaim that, numbers on the economy were outstanding,“We cannot view this through a political lens”.
None of this had any impact on the perception that the demented "Old" Joe was stumbling along the corridors of the WhiteHouse talking to the paintings of the former Presidents. instead the pundits took their cue from Biden’s low approval ratings. The latter is a reflection of the public looking for a “performer” rather than a leader in addition to their general disenchantment with politics. Well he displayed that that he could "perform" with the best of them. He can sound like a populist when the need arises. It is not his preferred shtik but it is what it is. He can ad lib and even feeds off hecklers. As any seasoned stand up can tell you, "...if you have the mike you have the room". Incidentally he has a wry sense of humor which he displayed with aplomb.
Then there was the question of his being “elderly”. "Old Joe" took that bogeyman on with more subtlety that Ronald Reagan famously did. Incidentally he threw Ronald Reagan’s mantra in the sneering “Republicans” faces. Reagan characterized America’s role in the world as that “Shiny City On the Hill”. He has also gently reminded during his campaign, that the “Other fella” is no spring chicken himself. The near record viewership, including nearly 6 million on FOX NEWS, were treated to a passionate interpretation as to “Who we are”.
THE ISSUES AND BIDEN’S POLITICAL SKILL SET
Jay H. Ell just cannot let go of the, even now, liberal media’s obsession with Biden’s age, while accepting the “elderly” slurring mumbling Trump’s invective incoherence as,"Just Trump being Trump". They had to have been aware that even if "Old Joe" wanted to there was no off ramp for him. Sadly in America the Presidential campaign is 2 years long. He would have had to back off and become a lame duck when Merrick Garland was half asleep in the Justice Department on appointing an Investigation into January 6 leaving the country not having a definitive judicial ruling on Trump’s sedition. Who better than he, the victim of Trump’s attempted coup, to place the issue foursquare in front of the electorate?
Then it was Biden who was prosecuting the war against Putin. It was Biden with his fifty year experience in foreign affairs, who knows every world leader by name, who put together that incredible NATO and EU coalition to fight for democracy in Ukraine.
The central theme of his campaign has been “Freedom” in all its aspects. He opened his SOTU speech by referring to the threat that hung over the world in 1941 when fascist dictatorships threatened Europe and very soon thereafter America. This has to hit a high note with what is still left of the old GOP. Trump has announced to his Nuremberg style rallies that America was going to become isolationist, a circumstance that even at this point in time when at least a third of the “GOP” in Congress don’t support his abandonment of the Reagan mantra.
However the crucial freedom, that has cost the MAGA GOP countless interim elections as well as referenda some even in the darkest red states, that of a woman’s right to control her own body, was front and center in the oration. The ramifications of the Trump engineered reversal of Roe v Wade have resulted in disaster as horror story after horror story is regaled in the media. Supreme Court Justice Thomas’s interpretation of the axing of Roe is the banning of contraception and already in vitro fertilization is on the block. One can hardly see the crucial Republican suburban woman vote that helped tip the balance in 2020 switching back to Trump. In addition not much has happened or is about to follow will clear up his image as to how he regards and treats women.
The blue collar workers that swung back to Biden from Trump in the MidWest, in 2020, have no reason to ditch him now as the Biden economy have increased job opportunities and most significantly the influential Autoworkers Union's demands have been met. His appeal isn’t that he is the billionaire backer of the workers he was on the picket line with them - the first President to do so.
His tax policy is where the mainland is at where there will be no increase in taxes for anyone with a net income of $400,000 - an income he claims he only reached when he became President!
He has deftly, thus far, prevented the Israeli/Hamas conflict mushrooming into an all out war in the Middle East. He has brought in aircraft carriers, created a coalition to keep the shipping lanes open and taken out Iran backed terrorists in Sudan, Iraq and Syria.
He has wholeheartedly supported America’s ally Israel affirming that they could fight the just war that Hamas had savagely started but they needed to do so “justly”. Throughout he has insisted that the civilian casualties were too high and finally stated that Netanyahu was not waging the conflict in Israel’s best interests. He knew Netanyahu’s game, that inspite of all the USA’s unlimited aid, the Israeli Premier would argue that America could not dictate policy and run on that in the next election. So Biden got in first when the green light was given to Senator Schumer to attack him telling him to call an election.
Biden’s weakest position is on immigration where again he outmaneuvered the “GOP” by being prepared to accept all their recommendations to bolster up border security in what would have been a bipartisan resolution. Trump, who has visceral skills, immediately kiboshed the deal as this was one of his trump cards for 2024. Jay H. Ell can see the TV ads playing at election time zeroing in the most conservative "GOP” Senator James Langford of Oklahoma, the "Republican" negotiator on. the deal, mouthing the words that what Biden claimed, “was true”, while the rest of his colleagues tried to howl Biden down.
IT IS THE ECONOMY - “OLD" JOE IS NOT STUPID
The polls, on this crucial issue, remind Jay H. Ell of those conducted on health care providers where the majority of respondents claimed that all doctors were uncaring, However to the question as to how they viewed their own doctor the majority stated that their doctor was empathetic and listened to them. So it has been in some exit polls on the economy where the overall assessment is that it sucks but as to how they were doing only a minority claimed that they were faring “worse”
However one needs to examine the facts and figures and see whether there is the basis for individual perceptions to change. To date there is record unemployment under 4 percent and inflation is down from 9 percent to 3 percent. Also at the current rate America’s deficit is projected to be cut by 3 trillion dollars over the next 10 years. But groceries are still up and mortgage rates make it prohibitive to purchase a home.....
Besides the Covid relief money which saw the country through the epidemic, Biden through his bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and Inflation Reduction Bill has poured $442 billion into the economy. There are 50,000 discrete projects ranging from roads, bridges, rail, broadband, clean energy, public transportation, airports, ports, freight rail, water and the mind boggles. Most of the money is directed to rural and underdeveloped areas which translates to mainly the “Red” States which are 12 of the 18 largest recipients,
There are 8 more months for this to kick in. So the economy just has to remain on track without inflation flaring up so that the independent Federal Reserve can lower interest rates.
“ANY DEMOCRAT COULD BEAT TRUMP MORE EASILY”
It was the consensus that any generic Democrat could beat Trump more easily. Really?. When running on his own Trump has been a tough nut to crack. In 2015 he demolished a star studded field across the Republican spectrum from Jed Bush to Ted Cruz and another half a dozen between. He sleepwalked into his third “GOP”nomination So the only opponent who has beaten him when he is actually on the ballot is Biden. The latter also cruised past him in the Presidential debates.
Trump has cruelly and effectively lampooned his rivals one by one - Biden not so much. Trump and Hur have tried to stick “The Sleepy Old Joe” label on him but it just won’t stick. As Ron Klain his former Chief of Staff answered in a sickening NY Times 45 minute podcast where the interviewer never, but never, stopped hammering him about Biden’s age and whether he had admitted to anyone that he was only going to be in office for one term. Klain argued with conviction that Biden’s faculties were spot on and that he was the best candidate to defeat the red monster.
Even after the Republicans last hope Special Counsel Robert Hur to trumpet the lie that Biden was demented failed miserably, The NY Times headline screamed, “Special Counsel In Biden Documents Inquiry fiercely Defends Report”. This after a hearing where the Democrats exposed Special Counsel Hur as a political hack who refused to deny that he would accept a post in Trump”s Justice Department should Trump win the election Who needs Fox News when the liberal media do the work for Trump? Jon Stewart and Bill Maher and the rest all initially had joined in the crusade all but arguing that Biden had lost his marbles.
Biden is the genuine article, Lindsey Graham, that Trump poodle, confided after the January 6 insurrection. '…..he, (Biden) maybe the best person to have, (In answer to the question who was the best person to bring the country together). I mean how mad can you get at Joe Biden?“.
THE PROBLEM
There is little doubt that Biden's support for Israel with the resulting high casualties in Gaza has angered sections of the youth vote, (certainly not the large movements that include David Hogg’s March for Lives and The Run For Something Movements), as well as the Muslim community mainly in Michigan. No doubt he is aware and sensitive to their position and during the Primary elections the narrative was that these Democratic voters have every right to register their disapproval. He argued that he was not ignoring that aspect of the existential threat to Israel.
There is a big debate as to where the Latinos are polarizing to. Most polls show they are switching to the right but the picture is mixed. Where this will matter is in Texas, Florida and Arizona. The latter swing state being a target of the MAGA GOP. Kari Lake, the MAGA GOP nominee, an election denier both of the 2020 Presidential election and her own gubernatorial election is a toxic personality. At the moment the Democrat Ruben Gallego, who as his name implies is Latino, is way ahead in the polls and women in the swing state have moved increasingly into the Democratic column. It is difficult to see Trump and his fellow traveller Kari reversing the status quo.
Overall approximately 1 in 10 Democrats registered a vote either for another candidate or "uncommitted". This is about the same for any incumbent President. At the end of the day if these people vote for Trump and he somehow wins it will be the last time all of us have the opportunity to participate in an election. If they were motivated enough to vote in a Primary they have to have the insight to be aware of that reality.
Moreover, the Trump "negative" vote was more than double that of Biden's and he too was running as an incumbent - if you don't believe Jay H. Ell ask Trump himself and his MAGA crowd. Notably Trump's "negative" votes are more likely to abstain or vote for Biden as the ever increasing number of former employees and even Republican Primary contestants have indicated.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Jay H. Ell hopes that everyone has enjoyed this break from Trump and the Middle East.
As matters stand it is hard to see how The Donald can regain the WhiteHouse. He and his MAGA GOP are strapped for cash which is another colossal advantage Biden has over him. In addition with is daughter in law in the driver seat the Republican National Committee have made his election a top priority, which leaves the other candidates on their own, minimizing their chances to mobilize the votes for all of them.
Harold MacMillan, a former British Prime Minister when asked what was the most challenging situation that leadership of a country posed, replied “Events dear boy events”. There are plenty more events on the Trump horizon. One wonders what the impact will be, now that the Emperor has been exposed to have no money, on his following let alone the “undecided” who he has made no attempt to win over anyway. Then there is the documentary on the porn star “Stormy” Daniels and the salacious trial to follow and who knows maybe the January seditious conspiracy litigation….
Meanwhile "Old" Joe is just biding his time.
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