All the polling parameters point to the Biden Presidency being in total collapse. The question on everyone’s lips is, “Is Biden imploding?”. His approval rating is 37.5 percent. Trump is favored by 70 versus Biden's 30 percent to be better able to manage the economy let alone the border problem. The media harp on Biden’s slips of the tongue and ignore Trump’s imbecilic utterances. The banal of lunacy is favored over the sanity of elderly normality. CNN sends pundits to the swing states who find that Biden’s slender majorities are in jeopardy. Apparently, the African Americans, the Latinos, the youth not to mention the workers are turning against him in droves.
The majority polled prefer “The Orange Jesus”, who short of a miracle, will be the “GOP” nominee. The stakes have never been higher as America if they favor the 45th President over the 46th are, to quote that arch conservative Liz Cheney,“sleepwalking into dictatorship”.
No opposing candidates’ personalities have ever been so contrasting - one sadistic negative and sociopathic the other caring positive and sympathetic. One who believes that current America sucks while the other knows, “Who we are”.
Jay H. Ell believes that Biden imploding is all baloney. He will examine the issues, the factors that influence the election, the swing States and the demographics.
MAJOR REASON THAT BIDEN IS ALLEGEDLY IMPLODING - THE ECONOMY - STUPID
Supposedly Biden’s major weakness is the economy but the Democrats rightly explain there is a disconnect. His achievements havn’t yet registered. In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic, where all his relief moneys foreshadowed an inflationary recession, there has been fourteen million new jobs created by his forward looking economic legislation. The unemployment rate is at a record 3.7 percent. (Five percent unemployment is a parameter often used to argue that there is full employment). Inflation is receding and most of his infrastructure moneys haven’t kicked in yet.
The stock market which was The Donald’s major indicator as to the well being of the economy is reaching new highs. America is leading the new revolutionary paradigm, for better or for worse, artificial intelligence which will keep the cash registers ching chinging.
There is a belief that the illegal immigrants are a drain on the economy. America has lead the world because of its regular injection of legal and or illegal immigration. The number of children per each adult women to maintain the population is 2.1, Currently America is at 1.64 way below the number merely to keep the population at 330,000,000. (Incidentally far above the European figures, Germany was near 1.1) So they need immigration.
So In spite of the deluge at the border there is work available at the moment they get papers while they wait for their amnesty arguments to be heard. The construction, agricultural and landscape industries for starters are crying out for labor. While this unholy mess of a border policy has to change nobody buys into the Trump mantra that Mexico is sending us rapists and murderers. In fact there is very little immigration from Mexico it is from Central America.
So in November 2024 will unemployment increase? Definitely not. Will inflation decrease? Highly likely. Will the Federal Reserve decrease interest rates? Definitely So mortgage rates will decrease which they are already doing without any help from the Fed. The bottom line is that if anything the employed, by November 2024, will believe things aren’t as bad as they imagined. At worst the economy will be a non issue for the average voter..
OTHER REASONS WHY BIDEN IS ALLEGEDLY IMPLODING
Security
The border doesn’t represent a security threat. No one really believes that America is going to be invaded by ISIS. Trump's real wail relates to foreign adventures. Trump will end both support for Ukraine and Israel if he sticks to his guns. The majority of "GOP" legislative representatives disagree. So that cannot be a winning issue for him. The base as always will cheer him on but they aren’t enough.
Anti Israel sentiment particularly by the youth and the far left will not precipitate them voting for Trump. The understanding of the Israeli response will lessen as the atrocity of October 7 becomes more and more evident. Most Americans realize that
Americans security is better served by backing countries fighting for their values than America itself putting boots on the ground.
The agony of the five year “persecution” of Biden's son, Hunter, and the attempts to link him to his son's misadventures.
The Trump appointed prosecutor appears to have wilted under GOP pressure from originally accepting that Hunter Biden was guilty of a 1 misdemeanor indictment to 9 felony indictments against him. The latter being the first criminal indictment for tax evasion in memory and for an “offender” who has already paid his back taxes and penalties.
Hunter has claimed that the effort is not just to hinder his father politically but emotionally as well as they are such a close knit family. To all the queries on this saga which has dragged on for close on a decade the White House has responded that “The President loves his son”. Although it was Trump’s declaring that some of the white supremacist racists at Charlottesville that was the spur that got Biden to run, his children including his deceased son Beau clinched the deal. His friend and confidant Barack Obama counseled him, “You needn’t do this”.
The “GOP” in their quest to impeach Biden are claiming, when he was Obama’s Vice President, that he colluded with his son Hunter on foreign deals. Barr investigated the alleged crime for 3 years. The "GOP" hope that by various “investigations” to smear Bidden off the face of the earth. This would be a repeat of their calumny in 2016 when they probed Hillary Clinton up the ying yang and Kevin McCarthy preened that their efforts resulted in her defeat.
Biden’s age and his Vice President
Then Biden is geriatric while the obese Trump is ageless. Biden is senile while Trump has all his marbles and on and on. The dog whistles against Kamilla Harris flood the internet for those who even bother to disguise their racism. She is just a heartbeat away from the Presidency is the internet troll.
Biden’s coalition is collapsing
The youth and African Americans are abandoning him because of his support of Israel and the Latinos are dumping him for whatever. The independents are running away from him because, Jay H. Ell supposes, because of heavens knows what. Mainly it is '"The economy - stupid".
The coalition have all fled to Trump the savior who this time round will get around finally to make Mexico pay for the wall he never had time to build last time.
There is a major disconnect between what Biden has achieved and what they are alleging but first let us look as to the chief fundamentals in assessing outcomes of, in this instance, Presidential elections.
THE KEY FUNDAMENTALS
The fundamentals show that Incumbents usually win although three times in the last ninety years they didn’t - Jimmy Carter, George Walker Bush and the “Golden Jesus” himself. The interim elections including the midterms, the Wisconsin Judiciary election, the Pennsylvania and North Carolina State elections - all increased Democratic majorities or expectations. In many of these contests the Trump nominee was trounced. In fact there is a no case that comes to mind where a Trump candidate bucked the trend. In fact since 2016 Trump and his MAGA crowd are three time losers.
THE SWING STATES
It is argued that Biden won the key states by a total of less than 200,000 votes so on that basis alone with the African Americans, Latinos and the Youth turning against him he can easily lose. Looking at each state it seems improbable.
Georgia is where, arguably numerically, Biden is most vulnerable. Let us look at the fundamentals. Since 2020 they have voted in two Democratic Senators who beat Trump backed candidates. In addition the true Republican establishment has made it quite clear that they will not interfere with Fani Willis’s criminal charges against Trump. Many are scheduled to testify against him. It is plain that the electorate there are anti Trump as those he has supported lost while the 'GOP" state officials who failed to carry out his attempted coup have triumphed. .
The Mid West states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin with the possibility of the slither of white workers that went for Biden swinging back to Trump is likewise hardly likely. Biden has been a Trade Union man since way back and has supported them in their current major dispute against the motor car companies. So why would they vote for Trump who is pro business establishment? There is the argument that because of his Israeli support the 150,000 Muslims in Michigan will renege. Trump wants to kick them out of the country and Biden has condemned Islamophobia. So who will they choose? Michigan is legislatively Democratic in all its branches. Pennsylvania elected a Senator and a Governor convincingly against Trump's handpicked candidates.
So then there is Nevada where the Latinos reportedly might swing to Trump. They are largely unionized in the hotel and casino industry so why would they switch? Arizona is also apparently susceptible to the Latinos going into the Trump camp. Besides what Trump thinks of them Arizona is dominated by MAGA enthusiast, the electoral loser, Kari Lake who also believes Trump is running for a third term. Arkansas has elected two Democratic Senators so this state going into Trump’s column is also a stretch.
As a matter of a fact the “GOP’ have to be worried about Minnesota who will be voting to enshrine abortion in their constitution so they may just axe Trump in the process. Outside possibilities for Biden have to be Texas and Florida run by two way out Governors obsessed with their respective bigotries.
But what about the polls and the negativity of Trump himself to everyone who doesn't pitch up to his rallies?
THE POLLS AND TRUMP HIMSELF
The polls
With less than a year to go the elections the Democrats are claiming that the polls are meaningless and that Biden’s historic achievements will be recognized and confirmed at the polls. This far out from an election the polls are notoriously unreliable. The 2016 polls right up to the election let alone far out didn’t give Trump a ghost of a chance and the 2020 sample prognosticators were less accurate than any since 1995. It is obvious that they are becoming less and less of a predictor. They are for the most part landline events - who still uses landline? In addition who picks up the call when the cell phone shows that this a survey, an unknown number or probable spam? Polls will become even more irrelevant as times marches on.
Trump and criminal litigation
Nobody knows how the criminal litigation against Trump will impact his electoral chances. (No one is arguing that his base about 35 percent of the electorate will care one way or another). One of the criminal cases will definitely come to a conclusion before balloting. If he somehow dodges the insurrection trial which is scheduled for March he will have to have face the Stormy Daniels pay off litigation also scheduled for March. Even the judge in Florida on his espionage charges has scheduled May for a start. Just in case all these fall through Fani Willis in George has his number on the racketeering charges. Unlike the sleepy Attorney General Merrick Garland, who needed the January 6 Congressional Committee to wake him up, the Georgia investigation has been going almost immediately out of the starting gate when his interference in the Georgia election was publicly known.
The civil litigation rape trial is already in the damages phase and will serve as a healthy reminder as to where he stands in relation to the female gender.
At the very best for Trump his victimhood will energize his base. But what about the Independents and the waverers?
Trump and healthcare
Trump himself has resuscitated an issue the “GOP’ want to forget - health care. He is so obsessed with Obama that he wants to reverse Obamacare. The latter has put forty million Americans on insurance. It has been avoided like the plague by his party. He claims he has a replacement program which like Mexico paying for the border wall has yet to materialize.
THE ISSUES
Then a factor not taken into account - the major issue for suburban women and women in general - abortion. The support for Pro Choice in Republican states such as Ohio,Montana and even Kentucky have to be giving the Trumpists the most sleepless nights. This especially as every Republican State controlled legislatures seem to want to outdo themselves in restrictions - the latest being New Hampshire where there they have filed a 15 day abortion ban. Trump his good self recognizes the folly of his success in providing the judges that overthrew Roe v Wade. But he can’t have it both ways otherwise he would have the Evangelicals stay at home rather than vote for a Pro Choice candidate,
Guns and climate change in addition to a woman’s right to dictate her own destiny are the major issues of the youth. Are they going to pull the lever for Trump? They are highly organized and are even putting up candidates in “The run for something” campaign. Incidentally fifty percent of Republicans believe climate change is an issue.
THE NIKKI HALEY DONORS AND LIZ CHENEY
It is gratifying to observe that the major money donors that first gave us Trump are recognizing that, regardless of political philosophy, he is a wrecking ball to the very idea of what America purports to stand for. Led by the Koch brothers they are pouring tens of millions into the Nikki Halley challenge to Trump. It really is a lot too late.
The question is what they will do with the threat Trump poses when he wins the nomination? Does their loyalty to democracy extend to backing Biden? This is a job for Liz Cheney. The latter is a bred in the purple Conservative with a capitol C. She has abandoned all else to continue her task to save America from its demise. She needs to marshal these Haley forces behind Biden. Those that enabled the first Trump term have have a massive debt to repay. Biden does not need to scrape home. He needs a landslide victory.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The media want a horse race so they are blowing up the Trump threat out of proportion. Of course anything can happen. But as matters stand at the moment, if you must have a bet, back the favorite in a two horse race, it usually wins. The oddsmakers are making Biden the winner. The interesting number never mentioned, that regardless of the polls, Trump’s disapproval numbers are higher than Biden’s.
Let us dispense with Independent candidate Robert Kennedy a doyen of the dynastic Democratic Party family all of whose other members are against his candidacy. Ironically the MAGA mob are obsessed with the Kennedy name and waited for days in Dallas to await the return of John Jnr from the dead to be Trump’s VP. He will take more votes from Trump than he will from Biden with his crank theories.
Jay H. Ell obviously does not believe Biden is imploding. He can manage another term as he is not a micromanager. He is up there with both Roosevelts and Johnson. Maybe in two hundred years time the four will be lumped together with Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln. One can never evaluate the history one is part of.
Maybe Jay H. Ell lives in optimistic Lala land but he just cannot envisage the second coming of the “Orange Jesus”.
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