As America suffers from Trump fatigue, the pollsters are calling for a photo finish between an anticipated Biden/Trump rematch. While the media wallow in the prospect of a mud fight, Biden soldiers on. He is not much fussed about Trump et al absorbing all the frantic media oxygen - been there done that. Biden just carries on talking about the lowest unemployment figure in recent history, gun legislation, consoles victims of climate change disasters and reiterates a women’s right to choose. Of course there is “Our Freedoms” and “World Democracy”. Quietly he recently shored up South East Asia having a combined meeting with former arch enemies South Korea and Japan at Camp David. (Last item on the news).
Trump is occupying himself by totting up the criminal indictments which have the effect of an increasing number of those still in the “GOP” supporting him for President. The main event has been the “GOP” debate which without Trump was like Hamlet without The Prince. The media cackle on as if the world revolved around the pathetic Trump wannabes minus Chris Christie and Governor Hutchinson, (whose combined support barely registers 5 percent).
Just for the record the debate changed very little. DeSantis proved that he is useless, once again, Ramaswany successfully auditioned to be Trump’s Apprentice and Nikki Haley presented yet another Nikki Haley, but amongst that mediocrity, she shone.
Trump should know, as the talking heads prattled on as to how he “surrendered” at Fulton County Jail, which they of course covered as Trump took off and landed in what is left of the bankrupt Trump airlines, that even “The Apprentice” was cut because of sagging ratings. But the one fact that we have learned about Trump is that he never learns.
All this is irrelevant In 2024 if the American reality is examined, not to mention the demographics and issues facing the electorate. So even though nobody wants the rematch, it is what it is. But first onto the “GOP” Primaries which are about as irrelevant as Trump is in the next election.
GOP PRIMARY CONTENDERS
So let us look the candidates that the “GOP” that are running,. Well everyone knows what Trump is focussed on - 2020 and the stolen election. Most of the rest of the field, including second placed, Ron DeSantis, (17 percent), and tied third placed Haley and Ramaswany, (7 percent each) are running on that he would be OK as President even if convicted of attempting to overthrow the Constitution. They with the three other nonentities are supporting the narrative that Trump is a victim of double standards and Democratic persecution and want to be elected so they can pardon him. Only Hutchinson and Christie condemn outright his “insurrection”. DeSantis is Trump on steroids but apparently the “GOP’ electorate want the real deal. The two that are against him are not really making any impact. In fact Christie was strangely muted in the debate
Ron DeSantis is running against “woke” which he can’t define let alone can anyone else. For practical purposes he is out there on his own. He is the 2020 version of Jim Crow. At least he doesn’t want to Make America Great Again, he just wants America to become like Florida. There he wants to teach the children that slavery was an internship to a trade with free board and lodging. Mercifully it does appear that the “GOP” electorate are losing interest in him.
Then there is Mike Pence who also has a lane of his own. He has finally decided that Trump is bad news. No longer is his former running mate just only ‘“wrong” on the fact that he could reverse the election result, he is no longer, ‘“fit to be President”. Pence is for a national abortion ban and other than the Trump attempt to get him hanged, he is proud of the Trump/Pence 4 years.
The only real full throated anti Trump, Christie who is coming in at about 2 percent of the “GOP” electorate but has overtaken the anti woke guy in New Hampshire polls, Chris Christie has the highest unfavorable national rating of the lot. So don’t be tempted to back him at fifty to one odds.
Just in passing Trump is suffering from a bad case of hubris. He is not campaigning in Iowa like everyone else is. (Watch Nikki Haley). He has picked a fight with the popular Iowian Governor. He has basically told the Republican National Committee to jump in the lake. He won’t participate in their debates and he won’t sign a declaration that he will support the nominee if it is not him. No - one really knows what the poll figures mean and one poll showed that the majority of the “GOP” voters are prepared to axe him if he is convicted of a felony.
Well what are the “GOP” candidates’ stances on the issues?
GOP CANDIDATES ON THE MAJOR ISSUES.
They all agree that Biden is a disaster. They don’t argue with pundits who claim the current President is demented. Generally speaking they are more focussed on Trump then Biden. The economy is allegedly in free fall even though several are claiming credit for the projects that Biden has allocated money for in their districts. They are no longer focussing on health care although a central plank from 2008 was to get rid of Obamacare. Some however are advocating axing Medicare and Social Security which will eat into their geriatric base.
Most importantly they all are in favor of the Supreme Court decision of reversing Roe v Wade and are anti Roe to a lessor or greater degree. They all support the democratic right of everyone over the age of eighteen, to be armed with automatic weaponry. Without exception they are anti all that heavy climate change stuff. Some even are behind the oil industry who are beginning to diversify. All the top three candidates want to stop sending money to Ukraine.
Interestingly they all agree if Trump is the nominee Biden will beat him.
WHO AND WHAT ARE THE ELECTORATE AND WHAT ARE THEIR ISSUES?
Ever since 2018 Trump electorally has been a disaster. With a few exceptions his candidates have been smashed, So in three successive elections the Biden led Democrats have won over suburban women, retained the support of those of color, and won back a small but significant number of blue collar workers in the key swing states.
However the Democrats’ real impact has been with Gen Z, those between the ages of 18 and 29, who have woken up from their stupor. Their participation in elections is rocketing. In 2020 Biden got close of 70 percent of GenZ voters and about 60 percent in the age group 30 - 45. In 2020 GenZ represented 7.5 percent of all voters. In 2024 they will represent 13 percent of the voters, an increase of 8 million bringing their total up to 13 percent of the electorate.
What are the issues of GenZ? In one survey climate change was the numero uno. In addition they are for gun control and for women’s reproductive rights.
Prior to Trump and Roe the increase in GenZ voters would have just been interesting but not very relevant. However that demographic are mobilized like never before. The March for Our Lives Moment, had the biggest protest march since the Vietnam War, over 200,000 following the Parkland High School Shooting where 17 students were killed. They are country wide and are led by a survivor of that slaughter, David Hogg. In addition they are concerned with student debt.They are organizing on a large scale and are in the process of registering, electioneering and raising money for 2024. They are also looking for young candidates as are another very effective youth organization, Run For Something.
It is fair to say the GenZ are not ecstatic about Biden as a candidate but no - one can argue that he hasn’t their causes at heart!
FEMALE REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS.
The “GOP’ candidates are avoiding the Female Reproductive Rights like the plague. It is fair comment that they have no unified policy. Some such as Hutchinson and Haley are into allowing termination of pregnancy up to 15 weeks, Pence wants a national ban and DeSantis is at 6 weeks. However the Republican policy since Roe v Wade was enshrined into law 50 years ago was to axe it. Trump who blamed the 2022 losses on the rigid abortion policy but he was the one who promised and delivered three judges who did just that, “delivered”.
The Democrats for practical purposes are united on the stipulations as propounded in the Supreme Court decision nearly fifty years ago which allows termination up to 23 weeks. The “GOP’ candidates cannot outright say restore the decision because the Evangelicals would stay home and what was their fifty year struggle all about? Day after day tragic stories are run in the media. There was the 10 year old girl in Mississippi who was raped and forced to deliver a baby. There are those in Texas who are suing the State following complications of pregnancy as a result of not being treatable by terrified doctors on and on.
Already the issue has radicalized the women of America. In fact 27 percent of voters in the 2022 midterms claimed that their number one issue was on a “Woman’s Right to Choose” There have been several state wide plebiscites on the issue all with disastrous results for the “GOP”;
Montana, (Trump won by 16 percent), further restrictions on abortion as well as criminal penalties for doctors were defeated.
Kentucky, (Trump won by 26 percent) an attempt to enshrine in the constitution the fact that a women has no right to an abortion or funds for it was defeated.
In the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, which Biden won narrowly, elections that impacted on abortion rights were decided clearly in favor of reproductive rights.
In the blue states of Vermont and California there was resounding support for reproductive rights.
Finally in red Ohio, (Trump won by 8 percentage points), an attempt to forestall a referendum on the issue was soundly defeated by 14 percentage points.
As the impact of the ‘GOP” controlled states restrictive reproductive rights continue it is hard to imagine that this issue isn’t going to impact the 2024 election. To add insult to injury there is a “GOP” initiative to ban the use of drugs used in abortion. While “GOP” candidates may offer weak compromises on the subject the proof is in the actions of GOP State Legislatures.
WHAT COULD GO WRONG FOR BIDEN?
Well there is Hunter Biden who really appears to be a bad egg. He obviously lied to his father about his business with Ukraine and China. A Trump appointee Special Counsel has been installed to investigate. This has caused the Trump “GOP" to go ballistic as this could last forever. After 8 years of trying Trump has been unable to pin anything that Hunter did on his father.
The only way Trump won’t stand is if he is forbidden as an “insurrectionist’ by the Supreme Court. Then maybe a Hayley, or Christie could support gun restrictions, back the introduction of Roe’s stipulations and increase climate change legislation!
“No Labels” could announce a middle of the road candidate. They should change their name to “No Geniuses”.
Anything could happen. There could be a recession….
AT THE END OF THE DAY
We will be living with Trump night and day till 2024 and beyond.
History will rank Biden, as did Majorie Taylor Greene, as transformative as a Franklin Roosevelt and a Lyndon Johnson.
The happiest two spectators watching the “GOP” debate were Trump and Biden.
One of Trump's criminal cases will be concluded prior to the election. Jack Smith's referral is to be held on March 4 in Washington nearby the site of the coup attempt. Trump is not the first criminal defendant there as at least a thousand of the people he "loves" have been charged. Two Oath Keeper leaders have been sentenced to 18 years while the prosecutors are asking for a 30 year sentence for the head of the Proud Boys. No wonder nobody is pitching up to protest Trump's arraignments. This despite the fact that they have been "invited" by the defendant who forecast a national uprising if he was indicted. Maybe the rioters who are not in prison are also suffering from Trump fatigue.
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