2024 IS NOT ABOUT TRUMP OR EVEN THE GOP

As America suffers from Trump fatigue, the pollsters are calling for a photo finish between an anticipated Biden/Trump rematch. While the media wallow in the prospect of a mud fight, Biden soldiers on. He is not much fussed about Trump et al absorbing all the frantic media oxygen - been there done that. Biden just carries on talking about the lowest unemployment figure in recent history, gun legislation, consoles victims of climate change disasters and reiterates a women’s right to choose. Of course there is “Our Freedoms” and “World Democracy”. Quietly he recently shored up South East Asia having a combined meeting with former arch enemies South Korea and Japan at Camp David. (Last item on the news).

 Trump is occupying himself by totting up the criminal indictments which have the effect of an increasing number of those still in the “GOP” supporting him for President. The main event has been the “GOP” debate which without Trump was like Hamlet without The Prince. The media cackle on as if the world revolved around the pathetic Trump wannabes minus Chris Christie and Governor Hutchinson, (whose combined support barely registers 5 percent). 

Just for the record the debate changed very little. DeSantis proved that he is useless, once again, Ramaswany successfully auditioned to be Trump’s Apprentice and Nikki Haley presented yet another Nikki Haley, but amongst that mediocrity, she shone. 

Trump should know, as the talking heads prattled on as to how he “surrendered” at Fulton County Jail, which they of course covered as Trump took off and landed in what is left of the bankrupt Trump airlines, that even “The Apprentice” was cut because of sagging ratings. But the one fact that we have learned about Trump is that he never learns. 

 All this is irrelevant In 2024 if the American reality is examined, not to mention the demographics and issues facing the electorate. So even though nobody wants the rematch, it is what it is. But first onto the “GOP” Primaries which are about as irrelevant as Trump is in the next election.

 GOP PRIMARY CONTENDERS

So let us look the candidates that the “GOP”  that are running,. Well everyone knows what Trump is focussed on - 2020 and the stolen election. Most of the rest of the field, including second placed, Ron DeSantis, (17 percent), and tied third placed Haley and Ramaswany, (7 percent each) are running on that he would be OK as President even if convicted of attempting to overthrow the Constitution. They with the three other nonentities are supporting the narrative that Trump is a victim of double standards and Democratic persecution and want to be elected so they can pardon him. Only Hutchinson and Christie condemn outright his “insurrection”. DeSantis is Trump on steroids but apparently the “GOP’ electorate want the real deal. The two that are against him are not really making any impact. In fact Christie was strangely muted in the debate

Ron DeSantis is running against “woke” which he can’t define let alone can anyone else. For practical purposes he is out there on his own. He is the 2020 version of Jim Crow. At least he doesn’t want to Make America Great Again, he just wants America to become like Florida. There he wants to teach the children that slavery was an internship to a trade with free board and lodging. Mercifully it does appear that the “GOP” electorate are losing interest in him.

Then there is Mike Pence who also has a lane of his own. He has finally decided that Trump is bad news. No longer is his former running mate just only ‘“wrong” on the fact that he could reverse the election result, he is no longer, ‘“fit to be President”. Pence is for a national abortion ban and other than the Trump attempt to get him hanged, he is proud of the Trump/Pence 4 years.

The only real full throated anti Trump, Christie who is coming in at about 2 percent of the “GOP” electorate but has overtaken the anti woke guy in New Hampshire polls, Chris Christie has the highest unfavorable national rating of the lot. So don’t be tempted to back him at fifty to one odds.

Just in passing Trump is suffering from a bad case of hubris. He is not campaigning in Iowa like everyone else is. (Watch Nikki Haley). He has picked a fight with the popular Iowian Governor. He has basically told the Republican National Committee to jump in the lake. He won’t participate in their debates and he won’t sign a declaration that he will support the nominee if it is not him. No - one really knows what the poll figures mean and one poll showed that the majority of the “GOP” voters are prepared to axe him if he is convicted of a felony. 

Well what are the “GOP” candidates’ stances on the issues?

GOP CANDIDATES ON THE MAJOR ISSUES.

They all agree that Biden is a disaster. They don’t argue with pundits who claim the current President is demented. Generally speaking they are more focussed on Trump then Biden. The economy is allegedly in free fall even though several are claiming credit for the projects that Biden has allocated money for in their districts. They are no longer focussing on health care although a central plank from 2008 was to get rid of Obamacare. Some however are advocating axing Medicare and Social Security which will eat into their geriatric base. 

Most importantly they all are in favor of the Supreme Court decision of reversing Roe v Wade and are anti Roe to a lessor or greater degree. They all support the democratic right of everyone over the age of eighteen, to be armed with automatic weaponry. Without exception they are anti all that heavy climate change stuff. Some even are behind the oil industry who are beginning to diversify. All the top three candidates want to stop sending money to Ukraine. 

Interestingly they all agree if Trump is the nominee Biden will beat him. 

WHO AND WHAT ARE THE ELECTORATE AND WHAT ARE THEIR ISSUES?

Ever since 2018 Trump electorally has been a disaster. With a few exceptions his candidates have been smashed, So in three successive elections the Biden led Democrats have won over suburban women, retained the support of those of color, and won back a small but significant number of blue collar workers in the key swing states. 

However the Democrats’ real impact has been with Gen Z, those between the ages of 18 and 29, who have woken up from their stupor. Their participation in elections is rocketing. In 2020 Biden got close of 70 percent of GenZ voters and about 60 percent in the age group 30 - 45. In 2020 GenZ represented 7.5 percent of all voters. In 2024 they will represent 13 percent of the voters, an increase of 8 million bringing their total up to 13 percent of the electorate. 

What are the issues of GenZ? In one survey climate change was the numero uno. In addition they are for gun control and for women’s reproductive rights.   

Prior to Trump and Roe the increase in GenZ voters would have just been interesting but not very relevant. However that demographic are mobilized like never before. The March for Our Lives Moment, had the biggest protest march since the Vietnam War, over 200,000 following the Parkland High School Shooting where 17 students were killed. They are country wide and are led by a survivor of that slaughter, David Hogg. In addition they are concerned with student debt.They are organizing on a large scale and are in the process of registering, electioneering and raising money for 2024. They are also looking for young candidates as are another very effective youth organization, Run For Something. 

It is fair to say the GenZ are not ecstatic about Biden as a candidate but no - one can argue that he hasn’t their causes at heart!

FEMALE REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS.

The “GOP’ candidates are avoiding the Female Reproductive Rights like the plague. It is fair comment that they have no unified policy. Some such as Hutchinson and Haley are into allowing termination of pregnancy up to 15 weeks, Pence wants a national ban and DeSantis is at 6 weeks. However the Republican policy since Roe v Wade was enshrined into law 50 years ago was to axe it. Trump who blamed the 2022 losses on the rigid abortion policy but he was the one who promised and delivered three judges who did just that, “delivered”.

The Democrats for practical purposes are united on the stipulations as propounded in the Supreme Court decision nearly fifty years ago which allows termination up to 23 weeks. The “GOP’ candidates cannot outright say restore the decision because the Evangelicals would stay home and what was their fifty year struggle all about? Day after day tragic stories are run in the media. There was the 10 year old girl in Mississippi who was raped and forced to deliver a baby. There are those in Texas who are suing the State following complications of pregnancy as a result of not being treatable by terrified doctors on and on.

Already the issue has radicalized the women of America. In fact 27 percent of voters in the 2022 midterms claimed that their number one issue was on a “Woman’s Right to Choose” There have been several state wide plebiscites  on the issue all with disastrous results for the “GOP”;

 Montana, (Trump won by 16 percent), further restrictions on abortion as well as criminal penalties for doctors were defeated.

Kentucky, (Trump won by 26 percent) an attempt to enshrine in the constitution the fact that a women has no right to an abortion or funds for it was defeated.

In the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, which Biden won narrowly, elections that impacted on abortion rights were decided clearly in favor of reproductive rights.

In the blue states of Vermont and California there was resounding support for reproductive rights.

Finally in red Ohio, (Trump won by 8 percentage points), an attempt to forestall a referendum on the issue was soundly defeated by 14 percentage points.

As the impact of the ‘GOP” controlled states restrictive reproductive rights continue it is hard to imagine that this issue isn’t going to impact the 2024 election. To add insult to injury there is a “GOP” initiative to ban the use of drugs used in abortion. While “GOP” candidates may offer weak compromises on the subject the proof is in the actions of GOP State Legislatures.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG FOR BIDEN?

Well there is Hunter Biden who really appears to be a bad egg. He obviously lied to his father about his business with Ukraine and China. A Trump appointee Special Counsel has been installed to investigate. This has caused the Trump “GOP" to go ballistic as this could last forever. After 8 years of trying Trump has been unable to pin anything that Hunter did on his father. 

The only way Trump won’t stand is if he is forbidden as an “insurrectionist’ by the Supreme Court. Then maybe a Hayley,  or Christie could support gun restrictions, back the introduction of Roe’s stipulations and increase climate change legislation!

“No Labels” could announce a middle of the road candidate. They should change their name to “No Geniuses”.

Anything could happen. There could be a recession….

AT THE END OF THE DAY

We will be living with Trump night and day till 2024 and beyond.

History will rank Biden, as did Majorie Taylor Greene, as transformative as a Franklin Roosevelt and a Lyndon Johnson.  

The happiest two spectators watching the “GOP” debate were Trump and Biden. 

One of Trump's criminal cases will be concluded prior to the election. Jack Smith's referral is to be held on March 4 in Washington nearby the site of the coup attempt. Trump is not the first criminal defendant there as at least a thousand of the people he "loves" have been charged. Two Oath Keeper  leaders have been sentenced to 18 years while the prosecutors are asking for a 30 year sentence for the head of the Proud Boys. No wonder nobody is pitching up to protest Trump's arraignments. This despite the fact that they have been "invited" by the defendant who forecast a national uprising if he was indicted. Maybe the rioters who are not in prison are also suffering from Trump fatigue.

WHY BIBI MAY WALK WHILE TRUMP'S TASK IS HARDER

 

Both BibI Netanyahu and Donald Trump need political solutions to their legal problems. The Israeli Premier hopes to have already solved his by using his tiny majority in the Israeli Knesset while the former President Trump, in spite of all his repeated pleas to the “GOP” majority in the House of Representatives to “Stop It”, is floundering. The Don  still can be saved if elected President in18 months time. Currently he is the "GOP" front runner for their Presidential nomination who has already been charged with 72 felonies. If convicted of just one, 60 percent of Republicans, have, in repeated surveys, vowed not to vote for him. (Bibi’s advantage is he is the sitting Premier while former President Trump is trying to leverage his position as the leading candidate for the "GOP” nomination for the 2024 Presidential election).

Both the USA and Israel are liberal democracies so why is Trump more likely to be facing jail time while Bibi is in with a much stronger chance to escape? This in spite of the fact that they both are narcissistic authoritarians who believe they are in fact their countries. In fairness to the Israeli premier he is attempting a parliamentary coup with no extra legal conspiracies and force involved. In addition Netanyahu's alleged crimes pale in relation to Trump's. 

However the key objectives of both is to escape jail time at the expense of their countries democracies. One rationale they have in common is that they both argue who the hell are unelected bodies such as the judiciary to interfere with those whom the electorate voted for!

To start with one has to define the components of what constitutes a State and a “Liberal” democracy and how could each of these countries have differed in reaching this stage where contrasting strategies have been exercised to escape the rule of law. 

HOW IS A STATE AND A “LIBERAL” DEMOCRACY  DEFINED

Historically the state has been defined, largely arising out of the work of German sociologist, Max Weber, as having a defined space where the power was vested only in the ruling party. (Weber emphasized the difference between a patriarchal state where the ruler dished out the goodies to family and friends and a merit based one where the bureaucrats were elected on merit). 

A liberal democratic state according to the political scientist Francis Fukuyama must exhibit “accountability” and the rule of law. The latter ensures that everyone, including the leaders, were equally subject to justice before an independent judiciary. The latter can also place curbs on what they consider illegal or unconstitutional acts. For practical purposes free and fair elections of all the citizens assured “accountability” of the ruling party. 

Also a liberal democratic nation developed institutions which helped maintain the state’s integrity, safety and liberal democracy.

THE STATE AND A “LIBERAL” DEMOCRACY - AMERICA

America following the Declaration of Independence and the subsequent war against British colonial rule had a large run up to their formation of a nation state allowing time for the creation  of a Constitution with three components to government. (Not to mention that each State had jurisdiction in several areas). These components were:  The Legislative body which itself was divided into two separate chambers elected by differing constituency methodologies; the Executive Branch under a President whose office was indirectly decided upon by the whole electorate and the Judiciary which was in several layers but under the aegis of a Supreme Court. The latter members were nominated by politicians and had life long tenure. 

The nine person Supreme Court is still the final arbiter of what is the law and is the adjudicator of all issues. Its jurisdiction covers what is or is not constitutional. Biden has called the current Court “wrong” on a number of occasions but there is no way he would tamper with it without a “broad consensus”, which was his advice to Netanyahu when the latter mooted all the "reforms" he had for the Israeli Supreme Court. 

This layer upon layer of judicial chambers has been misutilized by Trump all his life, scaring would be creditors, delaying decisions by motion after motion, making appeal upon appeal and countersuing, all to the extent of having been involved in 4000 suits. In addition he has had close on 70 legal attempts at reversing the 2020 election. Trump was exempt from criminal prosecution while President because of a weird rule of the independent Justice department that does not allow arraignment of a sitting Commander in Chief. A law that does not apply to the Israeli Premier.

But now is not the time to go into detail of the deficiencies of the American system other than to say that as Trump is no longer President he is being held to account where he has been thus far been charged with 72 felonies in three separate cases. He is following the dictum of the McCarthyite lawyer Roy Cohn by filing repeated frivolous motions, appealing and delaying the processes to the extent of spending at least 56 million dollars on legal fees in the past eighteen months. So however labored the process may be Trump may not be able to avoid prosecution in at least a few trials before the election. Being convicted does not rule him out as a candidate but virtually puts paid to his chances of being elected President again. 

At the time of writing it appears that the conspiracy and obstruction trial involving Trump’s attempts to hang on to power has the most chance of moving quickly. (Blog: 6/13/23, “Trump Indicted for Espionage - What Now and Later?” ). The elegant indictment is straight forward and Trump is the only one charged for the conspiracy. The Judge in question has held several similar other trials of the insurrectionists of January 6, 2019 and has already had Trump asking for her recusal. She also appears impervious to attempts to delay the trial.

THE STATE AND A “LIBERAL” DEMOCRACY - ISRAEL

Israel was declared a state in 1947, 2 years after WW11, rising from the ashes of the Holocaust. The moment that happened the Arab world descended upon it like vultures swooping down upon a carcass. The war really started in earnest in May 1948 when the British mandate for Palestine finally ended. The UNO had initially declared partition between the Israelis and Palestinians. As with that war and every other, Israel ended up with more territory than they started with. 

After the rag bag army in what was called “The First War of Independence” triumphed in 1949, the accent was on survival. There was not time for years of “Federalist Papers” and the like and prolonged debate about a Constitution. The Knesset or parliament was to be constituted on the basis of proportional representation of the large number of parties in Israel which is the situation to this day. A court system was gradually set up with the Supreme Court at the top. And that was that as the post war refugee Jews were accommodated in Israel together with what was and still is a 20 percent Arab population.

In the 75 years that followed Israel made remarkable progress and was considered an island of liberal democracy in a sea of authoritarian governments in the Middle East. It bounded ahead pioneering the purifying of sea water to drinking water and notably created  a high tech center considered second only to Silicon Valley. As the years rolled by the left wing Labor Party was ousted by the right wing Likud Party. Bibi Netanyahu was a rising star ever since the mid nineties to the extent that after the assassination of peace seeking Rabin he was accused of fomenting the environment in which it occurred. (Jay H. Ell has written often about Bibi who was to dominate Israeli politics in the second millennium. His most recent blog on April 5, 2023 was entitled,“Why Netanyahu Folded and What Is Next”). 

It is fair to say that initially Israel made every attempt to create a two party solution with what had to be the most generous offer in 2000 when Ehud Barack, according to Bill Clinton, gave into every Palestinian demand. In that proposal nearly a 100 percent of the  West Bank would be ceded to the Palestinians. Attempts were made on both sides thereafter till this day but gradually opinions hardened. The only bright spot after the turn of the millennium was when Ariel Sharon, a right wing Israeli Premier, ceded the well established Gaza to the Palestinian upending 21 Israeli settlements in the process. For his troubles the Iran sponsored Hamas took over and turned the territory into a hotspot for terrorist activities. 

In fairness to the Palestinians they have remained a political football for the powers in the Middle East. The leader of the Palestinians in the West Bank for decades and successor to Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas has no control of the territory not having held an election for a decade and a half. His impotence was on display when he was powerless to influence the Israelis from tearing up a refugee camp in pursuit of terrorists. Israel’s grip on the West Bank territory has grown tighter and tighter and Netanyahu’s current government has no intention of ever aspiring to a two state solution. 

All the while Israel’s tenuous liberal democracy held. There were regular fair and free elections and the Supreme Court provided equity regularly intervening on behalf of Palestinian rights and axing excesses by whoever was the ruling party. It developed, from Anglo Saxon courts, the concept of “unreasonable actions”. (The principle is also utilized in the judging of quasi judicial bodies such as professional medical bodies where a supervising court may disagree with the former’s decision but as long it was “reasonable” they would not reverse it). There are three examples of decisions where the current Netanyahu coalition are at odds with decisions that might be deemed “unreasonable” by The Court -  to appoint felons to the cabinet, allowing the government to fire and or ignore the Attorney General’s injunctions and that no group should be exempted from military conscription. 

Netanyahu did the unthinkable in the aftermath of the 2022 election, the fifth in four years, when he formed a coalition with the Religious Zionist Party who were hell bent on creating more Settlements and taking over the West Bank and the fundamentalist Haredi Parties, who wanted a law that legally exempted their children from conscription and that their schools need only teach religious studies with no science, math, English or civics. Bibi got his narrow majority by making promises to get the latters’ support. Now only the Supreme Court stands in his way. 

There was only one reason why Netanyahu would have risked the Israeli economy and why he was in sync with limiting the power of the Supreme Court which would inter alia allow him to get rid of the prosecuting Attorney General. He has to hope that the Supreme Court will defer to the elected representatives of the Knesset and not overturn the Knesset's decisions.

RESPONSE TO NETANYAHU’S MOVES

Bibi announced a range of "reforms" of the Supreme Court but the unbelievable protests that took place week after week as well as pressure from Biden and the international money markets made him hold back for thirty weeks on the first of the many laws that would emasculate the court.  With no Constitution to fall back on the only other accountability and check on the ruling coalition, who with the barest of majorities were committed to change the country from a liberal democracy to an authoritarian one, was the populace who delivered in spades. Besides the hundreds of thousands protesting every week, a the most recent survey shows that almost 70 percent of the Israelis are against tinkering with the authority of the Supreme Court.

The Premier was finally able to introduce one of his "reforms" namely that the Supreme Court was no longer able to use "unreasonableness" as a criterion for axing a Knesset decision.

There is one other factor that maintains a liberal democracy and that is its institutions. There are no more revered Israeli establishments than the armed forces and intelligence agencies, such as the internal - Shin Bet, military - Amman as well the famed Mossad. Every living past head of all these armed forces and intelligence entities, except one, condemned the right wing legislative coup. The Defense Minister originally was fired when he warned that the reservists were threatening not to report for duty. The current Chief of Staff of the armed forces sort, in vain, an urgent meeting with the Prime Minister for four days prior to the vote. The Police Chief resigned rather than use force to control the protestors.

Like, with the strikes even by doctors and the monumental protests, which served to protect the respectable international standing of the nation state, nothing helped. Bibi adjourned the Knesset till October when his coalition partners vowed to continue with “judicial reform”. 

Besides the Supreme Court which Jay H. Ell will get to in a moment, Biden has a moon shot plan presented via the New York Times famed opinion writer Tom Friedman. The latter wrote that the USA President was in the process of negotiating a defense  deal between the USA and Saudis which would include recognition of Israel. Conditional too was an agreement on the Settlements and  the ultimate independence of the Palestinians, (currently not a viable proposition). Bibi would then have to form a government with the opposition sans the fundamentalists). This would not keep Bibi out of jail and is unlikely. 

Otherwise the ball is in the Supreme Court as the massive protests roll on. 

SEPTEMBER AND THE SUPREME COURT AND THE CONSEQUENCES.

One month prior to the Knesset returning in October, The Supreme Court has to consider momentous decisions. First and foremost they have to consider whether the negation of the “Unreasonableness” law contravenes basic Civil and Human rights and should be voided. There are also petitions as to whether there is a conflict of interest between Bibi being Premier while his trial is proceeding and finally the legality of the Justice Minister refusal to convene the appointments committee of the Supreme Court.

The outcome of these trials will dictate the immediate future of Israel and could even result in  Civil War. The key institutions will no doubt uphold the law. But which law? The law of the minority government in the Knesset or that of the Supreme Court? 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Democracies are fragile and can be manipulated as Trump and Netanyahu have shown.

There is only one worse outcome for both Israel and USA than charging their leaders and that would be not to hold them responsible.