In one way or another Trump keeps overwhelming the public space. The latest being the first American President to be indicted in a Federal Criminal Case. He turned his arraignment into a publicity circus which the media obliged by covering minute by minute from motorcade to court to motorcade to airplane to his fundraiser at his New Jersey summer residence.
He has defied the established political reality where a whiff of scandal or misstep doomed a career. Rather his success in life has followed the showbiz playbook that all publicity is good publicity.
The recent bizarre twist to this larger than fiction drama is the former President unbelievably indicted and arraigned on espionage charges for flagrant, defiant, narcissistic, shameless, sociopathic and almost public, (that is to the high paying members of his club and at least three suspicious foreigners), retention and dissemination of top secret and sensitive documents that could well have compromised the security of America and its allies.
The indictment has exacerbated the polarization of the country which probably is as divided as it was in1861. The whole happening galvanized his supporters claiming that this was a weaponizing by the Biden Justice Department to victimize his Presidential opponent.
Passions are being whipped up by Trump who is in the fight for his life.This time round rioters cannot cause a change in government.- not even a minor rebellion. The militia leaders are locked up and two thousand militants have been charged for various crimes. Including seditious conspiracy, following the January 6 insurrection.
Trump is campaigning and fundraising on the basis of the forty nine page thirty seven charges indictment, claiming inter alia that he is innocent, that he was entitled to do what he did, that the indictment was election interference - generally changing his story from one day to the next. He reassures the faithful that regardless of “what happens” he will never drop out of the Presidential race.The irony is that the riveting story that the indictment unfolds, as was in the case of the report of the January 6 Investigation Committee, is told by allies, in this instance, his employees, his lawyers and his good self, not by the Biden cabal.
Trump trots out the same old playbook. He is the victim of the “dark state”, the Marxist leftists, Biden and the fellow travelers. The cult and the cowed following in the “GOP” accept that it is only he and he “alone” that stands between them suffering a similar fate. They agree with the “what aboutism” cry, mixing his conspiratorial bluff with his wild paranoia, that Hillary, Pence and Biden were allowed to do exactly what he did.
But what now ?
FOR NOW
For now the con continues. His poll ratings are up and the small donor money rolls in. The faithful shout and cheer. There is little doubt that he has suffered naught politically with his base. While 80 percent of the American public believes that nuclear and military secrets should not be stored in ball and shower rooms only 38 percent of “Republicans” do and regardless of whether they agree on the indictment or not 80 percent of the population believe that “the action” was “political”.
In addition the "GOP" choir in the House of Representatives is singing loud and clear. The "GOP" Speaker, “My Kevin”, who is in desperate need to regain support from the MAGA cultists in his caucus, all of whom he has given key Committee positions, exclaims that “they are not going to stand for it”. Jim Jordan the “GOP” Chairman of the House Judicial Committee maintains that the former President can do what he likes with secret documents. There is little doubt that the House “GOP” will run as much cover as they can by deflecting with Investigations of Hunter Biden, and why the FBI investigated the Russian interference in favor of Trump in 2016. The hard core are suggesting impeaching Attorney General Merrick Garland.
The Senate "GOP" is generally more mooted. Several of them acknowledged the seriousness of the charges. Defendant Trump’s longest newest best friend Lindsey Graham is out on the talk shows supporting swearing undying allegiance. Mike Pence, his Vice President and a chanceless Presidential opponent, whom Trump sicked the mob on because Pence refused to effect a coup d’ etat, doesn’t believe that Trump should face criminal charges and claimed that he had hoped that he and the Justice Department should have sorted it out!. Just in case you can’t believe the forgiveness of someone who stood idly by as the rioters roared, “Hang Mike Pence”, he did add that Trump is no longer fit to be President.
The line up of “GOP” Presidential hopefuls other than Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson, both of whom are registering 1% in the polls, are condemning the indictment without commenting on guilt or not. Ron DeSantis who is a distant second in the polls, 22% was the most vigorous in his condemnation of the Biden Justice Department with Nikki Haley at 5% the next best in faux rage. (Secretly Jay H. Ell can confide that they are all hoping that the Justice Department can bring him down and they can tell his supporters that they stuck up for him).
It starts to become ugly with the calls for insurrection. Trump has put on Truth Social, “See you in Miami”. Kari Lake defeated “GOP” candidate for Governor in Arizona who, like Trump claims that she never lost her election, has called for “violence”. Representative Andy Biggs claimed that this was “war” and demanded “an eye for an eye”, while his fellow Congressman Higgins issued what was interpreted as military instructions.
Right wing social media sites have never been more active all this with the background that 4.4 percent of Americans support political violence. Last time Trump made the same call in New York it was a total damp squib. The Miami crowd was sparse as well. They expected up to 50,000 and there were about 500. Trump's prophesy was if ever he was indicated the "country would rise up".
The Trump camp have taken solace from the appointment of Trump appointee Justice Cannon who was castigated twice by a conservative Federal Appeals Court for blatant decisions favoring Trump during the documents investigation. There has been a wringing of the hands and a beating of the chests by the anti Trump media that she could delay or negate the Special Counsel legal theory or whatever. These fears have merit and there is a belief that she should recuse herself.
THE BAD NEWS FOR TRUMP
All of the aforementioned does not win Trump one new convert. All it does is consolidate the MAGA base that represent 30 percent of the electorate. He has open rebellion from a very eloquent and bulldog spokesperson Governor Chris Christie who claimed that the indictment was “damning”. A more refined Governor Asa Hutchinson felt Trump should quit the race. CNN held a Christie Town Hall where he trashed Trump to kingdom come. His Damascus moment came apparently when he concluded that Trump behaved like a spoilt brat on election night in 2020. It took him a bit longer to share his sparkling insight. For the moment good luck to him but what tells it all is that his approval rating when he retired as Governor of New Jersey was 18 percent - details to follow if necessary.
Perhaps Trump’s largest current liability is that he has lost his FoxNews echo chamber. Their first response was that this indictment was really serious. They gave Trump one last gasp with a friendly interview with his big mate Sean Hannity. Trump In spite of all the softballs served up to him he maintained that he could do what he liked. Just as he did in the CNN TownHall he hysterically argued that the Presidential Records Act gave him the authority.
FoxNews go to commentator on the issue is William Barr, literally Trump’s former Attorney General. Barr who has been vocal to anyone who will listen that Trump is “toast”. The indictment is not political he has voiced. Furthermore if Trump was guilty on just half the charges it was a disgrace. The former Attorney General concluded that his former boss was “totally wrong”. While establishment Mitt Romney’s condemnation was expected, Barr digs deep into the conservative wing of the “GOP”.
Trump is thus without a major news channel behind him and CNN who were trying to be evenhanded by giving him a home town audience to spout his drivel in the end did him no favors as he merely made statements that were legally damning. There is NewsNation but that channel is only frequented by the committed base and hasn’t the clout to command big advert money let alone anybody who doesn’t wear a red MAGA hat to bed. No TV distributors are paying big bucks for the right to broadcast their channel like FoxNews has.
Trump has become denuded of his lead legal team three resigning and one who has become a key witness against him in this trial. He has as yet been able to replace his counsel and it is being reported that several of the leading firms in Florida are declining the “honor” of representing the 45th President.
As the weeks roll by and the indictments increase some of the defenders will start distancing themselves from Trump. More significantly the big donors are looking for another candidate.
It is only going to get much worse later on.
FOR LATER
All this wailing about Justice Canon and that the jury pool in South Florida will find someone who will acquit Trump is not warranted. Special Counsel shrewdly scheduled the curtain raiser of his investigation in home territory for Trump with the local referee in charge. It also has not to be forgotten that it was from the same jury pool that a Grand Jury unanimously voted to indict Trump. But the Special Counsel’s main event has to be his January 6 investigation into whether Trump committed seditious conspiracy or whatever. And that has to be imminent.
Special Counsel Jack Smith has demonstrated remarkable skill in no time putting together a compelling narrative of espionage committed by Trump. He also runs an incredibly tight shop. None of the revelations leaked. The media was unaware even that there was a Grand Jury in Florida. So where can he be in relation to January 6?
With regard to the January 6 insurrection he has a mountain of evidence from the bipartisan Committees’s probe. There are a number of missing links to make Trump really “toast”. Smith needs to link the war room in Willard Hotel run by Bannon, Stone et al with the militia on the ground, Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and One Percenters and then with the WhiteHouse. There is one person that is central to all of that and that is Mark Meadows,
Trump’s former Chief of Staff. Mark Meadows provided the January 6 Investigating Committee with a documentary road map for their investigation which they acknowledged was the basis for their devastating expose. He then refused a subpoena to testify and the Justice Department inexplicably did not prosecute him. Now nobody has heard from Mark for the past year much to the chagrin of Trump and his former lawyers who think he may be cooperating with the enemy. Meadows can link the WhiteHouse to the war room as Cassidy Hutchinson testified. She persuaded Meadows not to go to the Willard Hotel so he joined the conspirators by phone.
It is either that Meadows is cooperating or he is being charged as a co conspirator. If it was the latter his legal team would be coordinating with his co conspirator Trump. There is one person that Meadows has spoken to and that is the Special Counsel.
There is so much more that is unknown. What, if any, cooperation is Smith obtaining from the convicted leaders of the militia in the insurrection? Fourteen have been sentenced to long terms for seditious conspiracy and most argued either in mitigation or as a defense that Trump sent them there. Surely there has to be some in the militia who want to mitigate their massive sentences.
Jay H. Ell would guess that it will not be too long before Jack Smith releases indictment two which really is the main event. The venue will be Washington DC where the Federal Judges there, regardless of who appointed them, have a deep knowledge of constitutional issues. So watch this space. And of course there is the Georgia announcement due at the end of July beginning of August. If the stars are aligned the Special Counsel will get in first.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Literally at the end of the day Trump held a fundraiser for his major donors at his summer club home in Bedminster New Jersey. He needs other peoples’ money for his best possible defense and his 2024 Presidential run. The bad news is that as of now the big donors aren’t committing and the Koch crowd, massive givers, are already running anti Trump ads.
Which ever way this is sliced and diced it is a dark sad day for America that the leading Presidential candidate of one of the two major political parties is facing multiple legal jeopardies. The ponderous legal process may not stop him from being a Presidential candidate with the terrifying prospect that .......
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