One of the ironies of international political disputes is that they, more often than not, need armies to help decide who is right and who is wrong - so let it be with the first major conflict since World War II between Russia and Ukraine. Not that there have not been other wars but none where the “casi belli” has been so clearcut - whether or not Russia can colonize Ukraine and exert control via a Moscow based autocracy. Putin has lamented that the breakup of the USSR as being the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the twentieth century and of all the "colonies" he grieved the loss of most, was Ukraine.
It would appear that of this moment Zelensky’s Ukraine has the upper hand. This is due to a variety of factors including guns and ammo provided by the EU and NATO and the morale of its citizenry who are literally prepared to die for what Ukraine now purportedly stands for.
WHAT THE WAR IS ALL ABOUT
No one would argue that Russia is a Marxist state. In fact it is anything but. The “means of production” are not in the hands of the central Government. Rather the goodies have been dished out to oligarchs who share the spoils with Putin. Then the Putin based rule is hardly a "dictatorship by the proletariat”. So the struggle isn't about capitalism versus communism.
Instead it is a conflict between, on the one side, a neo colonialist authoritarian quasi dictatorship where the opposition is locked up and there is no means for accountability of the regime. Ukraine, on the other hand is aspiring to be a Western style democracy while attempting to rid itself of the corruption that has so bedeviled it in the past. So the outcome will be whether or not Ukraine will be an independent country and be able to fulfill it’s desire to ally itself with like believing nations in the European Union, (EU), and in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, (NATO) or be a vassal colony of Russia
RUSSIA AND CHINA WANT TO SHOW THAT THE EU/NATO POLITICAL SYSTEMS ARE INFERIOR TO THEIR MODUS OPERANDI
The struggle assumes another dimension in that Russia decidedly wants its own electorate to believe that Western style democracy is inferior to their model.The fear that the "people" will rise up and demand democracy can never be out of the minds of autocrats. Broadly speaking China shares this view. Hence Putin and Xi Jinping signed an ante bellum pact in February 2022. In the midst of the Covid crisis Putin travelled to the sanitized Winter Olympic Games being held in Beijing were the two solidified their alliance.
Xi Jinping had to believe then that Putin would overrun Ukraine in a week. The land grab could serve as a dry run for a move on Taiwan.Their joint statement confirmed that Taiwan was part of China, (not really a colony), and it strongly supported Putin in his demand that NATO mustn’t expand. The Chinese Premier was wise enough not to have included any mention of Ukraine in the communique because, just maybe, his intelligence didn’t quite jive with Putin’s spiel. China now is in the process of trying to play the honest broker in an attempt to distance itself from thie debacle that its principal ally has found itself to be in.
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
The lack of morale of the Russian fighters ia an open secret. There is a war of words between the leader of their mercenary force who was wise enough to point a finger at Russian military leaders and not Putin for the shambles. The Wagner mercenaries need more ammunition. Wagner has been shown, in released intelligence reports, to have attempted to engage Zelensky in separate deals. The casualties on the Russian side have been estimated at two hundred thousand.
It is believed that well over a quarter of a million men eligible for the draft fled Russia while a similar number of Ukrainians returned from other countries to fight. Putin thus far has maintained his popularity with the proletariat but they are really not relevant as to whether he hangs in or not. The question will be if the Russians get smashed by the Ukrainian counter offensive whether the military or whoever will axe him.
The fact that the discussion at the moment is when and where the Ukrainians are going to mount their much telegraphed counter offensive tells it all. This is a far cry from Putin organizing victory parades in Kiev for March 2022 when he had to be fantasizing grabbing Moldova, Latvia, Estonia, Macedonia and Lithuania as encores. The metaphor for how the mighty Russian military have fallen was the solitary tank in their annual victory parade in Red Square. The parade had been rained upon by two amateurish looking drones penetrating the defenses of the mighty Kremlin a few nights before.
NATO has been strengthened as a result of Putin's thrust. All the members including Germany have increased their defense budgets and Finland has been admitted to the club with Sweden in the wings. The NATO Secretary General even visited Kiev signaling to the world that he at least backs Ukraine being admitted. Zelensky is careering around Europe, the UK, the Arab and G7 summits and has addressed the European Union who are considering Ukraine’s membership. Interestingly the South East Asian countries are publicly supporting Ukraine. They are more than mindful of the parallels of China eyeing Taiwan, their shared territorial waters and all manner of islands in the area. Russia/China have succeeded in creating a world wide alliance against their objectives.
THE AMMO
Biden who has been masterly in solidifying NATO and slowly upping the ante, not responding immediately to Zelensky’s demands for offensive weaponry but gradually giving more snd more sophisticated arms. He was driving home the point that he was not looking for World War III. A crucial game changer has to be the sharp change in the German stance, the EU’s most powerful member. Putin had to have reckoned that with Angela Merkel gone there would be no way that the EU countries let alone Germany would mix in. A turning point in the latter’s full commitment came when Chancellor Schultz made it quite clear that he would provide the tanks needed to push back the Russians if the Americans sent theirs as well. Adding these to the American Hibar long range artillery as well as sophisticated drones has gone a long way in blunting the Russian offensive.
So NATO and the EU are delivering. The US has coughed up 55 billion dollars in aid to date and has supplied everything short of fighter planes which Germany and the Netherlands are on course to do.So while Zelensky wails that it is not enough he quickly follows up with the thank yous.
The chief problem at the moment is ammunition which both sides have gobbled up in enormous amounts. The Hibar weapons have been able to penetrate the Russian ammo supply facilities up to a hundred miles from the battle lines forcing the Russian supply lines to retreat further and further back into their territory. The only good news with regard to ammunition is Russia is in a worse off position having emptied its arsenal. However if Zelensky wants to finish off the job he is going to need more ammunition - even more than he needs the fighter jets. Otherwise this is going to grind on and on.
MEANWHILE ON THE BATTLEFIELD
Well the latest was that the Russians were supposed to have a winter offensive which got stuck in a tiny town called Bakhmut. There is no one left and it is rubble but they desperately need to take it to show that they have achieved something over winter, even though it is small pickings. Even there the most recent missives claim that the Russians are in retreat.
However as winter is over the next item on the agenda is the Ukrainian counter offensive. The Russians are having one last destructive go at “winning" by hitting Ukraine with a barrage of missiles including their much vaunted hypersonic missives, of which they have a very limited supply. This initiative gets them nowhere in the grand scheme of things as they should have learned that their wanton criminal destruction of civilian targets and infrastructure has not persuaded the locals to force Zelensky back into the new USSR. According to reports the Russians have fired eighty four costly missiles since March 9, eighteen of them on May 16. The bad news for them is that the ever increasing sophistication of the defense systems culminating with the American Patriot systems are knocking the missiles out. Russia apparently in this last desperate push have nearly exhausted their supply.
So the world awaits the Ukrainian summer offensive. Some believe it has already begun. There has been the derailing of trains and the bombing of military targets, fuel depots and infrastructure inside Russian borders and occupied territories. Meanwhile Zelensky is keeping the enemy guessing as to when the real offensive might occur as he sends missiles here and there. Perhaps he is waiting for more ammo, the fighter jets and more significantly more disarray, confusion and arguments amongst the Russian leadership.
WHAT NEXT
It is fair to say the cause of Russian/China style governance has not gained any ground. The vulnerable former USSR countries can breathe a sigh of relief as the best Putin can hope for is he comes out of this is in one piece let alone rebuild the USSR. China and African countries want to mediate but this contest is going to have to grind to a conclusion. It cannot end like the other misguided twentieth century conflicts conducted by super powers. - you can’t just walk away and shrug your shoulders. Ukraine is determined to regain territory including Crimea. If they get enough ammo and the fighter jets, which Germany and Holland are negotiating, it may just happen. The Russians are digging in for a defense but this is not Stalingrad and the troops are underfed, underclothed, bereft of defense capabilities and just not motivated.
The most likely scenario is that Putin gets axed and somebody new in Russia can talk his way out of this mess.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
There has to be an end of a day here and for the moment Western style democracy has outgunned the Russian version of governance. This could never have happened without Zelensky’s Churchillian leadership and the guts and fortitude of the Ukrainians - both the civilians and armed forces.
Wouldn’t it just be great if Navalny was the next Russian head of State.
Lest anyone forget, Ukraine is waging war on behalf of liberal democracies. No country is being entirely altruistic in supplying both human and hardware assistance.
China are hastily rearranging their priorities as the EU has the potential to be a massive trading partner.
Xi Jinping has to be placing his Taiwan grab on the back burner especially as the G7 meeting is solidifying its support against the China/Russia neo colonial axis.
The Chinese and the Russian cause is certainly being helped by the "GOP" holding the American economy hostage.
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