Joseph Biden already the oldest US President on record and President Donald Trump, already the second oldest President to be elected, are set to be the contestants for the 2024 Presidential election. As matters stand Biden would win if the election was held today and even tomorrow.
The “GOP’ have no coherent policy to run on. Trump, who totally dominates the “GOP” message, is running on the mirage that he won 2020 election. What policies the "GOP" have are at total odds with the electorate, eighty percent who want gun control and sixty percent who want abortion to be allowed up to twenty three weeks. Trump too is compromised up the ying yang and the last election cycles have shown that he has lost three crucial demographics - the suburban former Republican women, the independents and some of the blue collar workers in the MidWest. In addition the youth have become involved as never before because of gun reform and a woman’s right to choose.
“My Kevin” McCarthy, the Leader of the House of Representatives is Trump’s handmaid and the tactic is to change the narrative to favor Trump. This he can do only by throwing the country into economic chaos and then refer to the “Good old days” under Trump. The mechanism to crash the economy via the McCarthy controlled House is by the refusal to automatically raise the “Debt Ceiling”. So what is the Debt Ceiling and why is it important?
THE DEBT CEILING
Each year Congress passes a budget and seventy - eight times in the last sixty years the moneys allocated for the budgetary items have been insufficient to cover the cost. The Government had reached what is called the Debt Ceiling. The procedure under these circumstances is for Congress to raise the Debt Ceiling which they have done 49 times under Republican Presidents and 29 times under Democratic ones since 1960. In effect by so doing they are increasing the amount of money the Government can borrow to pay for items that Congress had already passed. The latter includes government employee salaries, medical and entitlement costs and bond holders - local and foreign. In short by not raising the debt ceiling a fiscal crisis will be created in America and the world plunging it into a recession if not a depression. The full faith and credit worthiness of the American Government will be lost in the process.
Only once in the past sixty years has the party in control of the House of Representatives not automatically raised the Debt Ceiling. Republican Speaker Boehner demanded budget changes before supporting paying the country’s debts. In effect he was holding the country to economic ransom for political gain. That was when Obama was President and Biden was Vice President. The belief was that Obama would cave as he was responsible for the country’s economy. However he didn’t and the impact on the financial markets was disastrous. Boehner quickly recanted and this move impacted negatively on the Republican Party. So why on earth would they try again to risk wrecking America’s economy and standing in the world?
WHY MCCARTHY IS RISKING AMERICA'S ECONOMY
Boehner was a rational actor and McCarthy isn’t. Both were responding to pressure from the Freedom Caucus to put the economy at risk. Boehner subsequently resigned as he could not function as the Speaker with the right wing pressure. Paul Ryan his successor exited the job for the same reason. McCarthy ranks being Speaker above everything else. The other variable in relation to McCarthy is that he is “My Kevin” and the “My” is, as he proudly acclaims, none other than Donald J. Trump.
McCarthy approached his task recklessly to get everyone in his thin majority on board this potential train wreck. He basically accepted every provision the wild right demanded and promised the moderates to introduce legislation that was in sync with the “American Room”.
So the McCarthy Debt Ceiling resolution was conditional on Biden emasculating his legislative triumphs with the electorate suffering. "My Kevin" has no maneuverability even if he wanted to negotiate in good faith. Most of the MAGA Freedom Caucus are anarchists in terms of normal politics. McCarthy agreed in fact that any one member could bring a motion of no confidence to the floor if they believed he wasn’t sticking to the script they had laid out when they finally agreed to him becoming Speaker. To reinforce the cost of their acquiescence they only called their opposition quits after fourteen votes. They really don’t care if they turn America upside down as anyway they want to remake it in their own image. So there is no way McCarthy who believes being Speaker is more important than anything that America stands for will back off. Also “My Kevin” owes it to Trump to create the economic chaos that might just allow him to have a shot at becoming President again.
WHAT ABOUT BIDEN CAVING?
So if McCarthy is not going to back off like Boehner did what are the chances of Biden caving? Biden has been around the block and then some. He has to be the most astute politician around. He has quietly legislated a revolution, won and retained the Senate and avoided the midterm slaughter in the House of Representatives. His calculous is that the “GOP” cannot carry through with this as the responsibility of not paying the country’s debts will rest on their shoulders. With Obama he outstared Boehner last time round and the Republicans paid for their recalcitrance. He is being asked to nullify the significant progress that has been made. If he backs down he will also weaken his position in the Presidential run off against Trump. He can and has offered to negotiate the next budget with McCarthy but he cannot surrender his and the Democratic Party’s achievements and agenda.
Biden has rarely been on the wrong side of a political calculation. He knows if he surrenders on this issue America is kaput anyway with his agenda negated and Trump elevated to a fighting chance in 2024. Everyone, perhaps unrealistically, is looking to him to weave some political magic but he has to know that this one is out of his hands. He has delivered the goods to the electorate so he has to hope that will somehow impact on the "GOP" moderates in the caucus.
The stakes have never been higher. Biden has to believe that the pressure within the “GOP” caucus will force McCarthy to back off since the impact on the constituencies of at least thirty “moderates” will be vast.
WHAT OTHER FACTORS ARE AT WORK
One of the motivators of Boehner calling it quits was big business pressuring him as the markets began to crash. There doesn’t appear to be that much interest yet and so far the markets have ignored the crisis.
McConnell can’t be too happy with the whole idea. He knows that on balance the “GOP” will have to shoulder the blame in a Debt Ceiling debacle. He wants to win the Senate and knows that this can’t help. His approach at the moment is publicly shut up. .
Four extremists didn’t sign onto the motion one more and it loses. Anything could upset one of this lot as McCarthy has to wiggle around the fears of the moderates, particularly the eighteen that are in Biden won districts. The Democrats have already begun campaigning in some of these districts so the pressure is going to build. The moderates are in the worst possible position as this motion will go nowhere and they are left with this vote and nothing to show for it. Their constituents will not be impressed that McCarthy told them the motion was just to initiate negotiations!
Another of the “GOP” problems is that in at least thirty seven of the “GOP” constituencies the voters benefit by the increased number of jobs that Biden’s new energy program and infrastructure and CHIPS legislation has produced.
The markets are going to get jittery as the period for America to reach the Debt Ceiling draws nearer. Janet Yellen has just announced the possibility of a June date. Interest rates will rise even more and inflation will get worse.
The back off for both sides may come via the “Problem Solvers” Caucus in the House.
PROBLEM SOLVERS’ CAUCUS
The Problem Solvers caucus is a group of 63 Congress members 31 Republicans and 32 Democrats, who seek compromise in situations like this. By the Group’s very nature their work is not public and they keep a low profile. While their commitments are obviously to their respective parties they seek to avoid catastrophe and catastrophe is where this stand off is heading. The members also recognize that they have no power or standing. They acknowledge that in spite of their efforts that they may not be able to avoid crises such as the Debt Ceiling.
They have put forward a four step plan to confront the issue. Firstly, suspend the debt ceiling till December 23, 2023 and till after the 2024 election if three further commitments are made.They are to establish an independent commission to recommend a package that could stabilize debt and deficit; adapt budgetary controls for the 2024 budget and change the budget process in a manner which will allow for more consultation and debate through committee work. All in all a reasonable approach but one that the Freedom Caucus would never agree to.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
It looks like this is heading for an economic crisis.
This is not Biden’s first rodeo. There is absolutely no way that he will cave. He will be waiting for a break from the other side, which is as brittle as a twig. If that occurs it will come via pressure on the “GOP” caucus via big business and or the constituencies of the moderates. May be The Problem Solvers will exert pressure?....
Biden knows how tenuous McCarthy’s hold on the Speakership is. The latter is already getting antsy moaning in Israel, of all places, that the President has not contacted him yet…..
There is a possibility that the crisis that is already shaping up will be blamed on Biden and that the GOP either have another candidate and or that Trump has not been convicted of anything serious. In that event Biden’s trajectory to another term will be blunted. Whichever way this is viewed trust in America will have taken another blow.
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