PUTIN'S COLONIAL DREAM DASHED BY ZELENSKY

One of the ironies of international political disputes is that they, more often than not, need armies to help decide who is right and who is wrong - so let it be with the first major conflict since World War II between Russia and Ukraine. Not that there have not been other wars but none where the “casi belli” has been so clearcut - whether or not Russia can colonize Ukraine and exert  control via a Moscow based autocracy. Putin has lamented that the breakup of the USSR as being the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the twentieth century and of all the "colonies" he grieved the loss of most, was Ukraine. 

 It would appear that of this moment Zelensky’s Ukraine has the upper hand. This is due to a variety of factors including guns and ammo provided by the EU and NATO and the morale of its citizenry who are literally prepared to die for what Ukraine now purportedly stands for.  

WHAT THE WAR IS ALL ABOUT

No one would argue that Russia is a Marxist state. In fact it is anything but. The “means of production” are not in the hands of the central Government. Rather the goodies have been dished out to oligarchs who share the spoils with Putin. Then the Putin based rule is hardly a "dictatorship by the proletariat”. So the struggle isn't about capitalism versus communism.

 Instead it is a conflict between, on the one side, a neo colonialist authoritarian quasi dictatorship where the opposition is locked up and there is no means for accountability of the regime. Ukraine, on the other hand is aspiring to be a Western style democracy while attempting to rid itself of the corruption that has so bedeviled it in the past. So the outcome will be whether or not Ukraine will be an independent country and be able to fulfill it’s desire to ally itself with like believing nations in the European Union, (EU), and in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, (NATO) or be a vassal colony of Russia 

RUSSIA AND CHINA WANT TO SHOW THAT THE EU/NATO POLITICAL SYSTEMS ARE INFERIOR TO THEIR MODUS OPERANDI

The struggle assumes another dimension in that Russia decidedly wants its own electorate to believe that Western style democracy is inferior to their model.The fear that the "people" will rise up and demand democracy can never be out of the minds of autocrats. Broadly speaking China shares this view. Hence Putin and Xi Jinping signed an ante bellum pact in February 2022. In the midst of the Covid crisis Putin travelled to the sanitized Winter Olympic Games being held in Beijing were the two solidified their alliance. 

Xi Jinping had to believe then that Putin would overrun Ukraine in a week. The land grab could serve as a dry run for a move on Taiwan.Their joint statement confirmed that Taiwan was part of China, (not really a colony), and it strongly supported Putin in his demand that NATO mustn’t expand. The Chinese Premier was wise enough not to have included any mention of Ukraine in the communique because, just maybe, his intelligence didn’t quite jive with Putin’s spiel. China now is in the process of trying to play the honest broker in an attempt to distance itself from thie debacle that its principal ally has found itself to be in. 

WHERE ARE WE NOW?

The lack of morale of the Russian fighters ia an open secret. There is a war of words between the leader of their mercenary force who was wise enough to point a finger at Russian military leaders and not Putin for the shambles. The Wagner mercenaries need more ammunition. Wagner has been shown, in released intelligence reports, to have attempted to engage Zelensky in separate deals. The casualties on the Russian side have been estimated at two hundred thousand. 

It is believed that well over a quarter of a million men eligible for the draft fled Russia while a similar number of Ukrainians returned from other countries to fight. Putin thus far has maintained his popularity with the proletariat but they are really not relevant as to whether he hangs in or not. The question will be if the Russians get smashed by the Ukrainian counter offensive whether the military or whoever will axe him. 

The fact that the discussion at the moment is when and where the Ukrainians are going to mount their much telegraphed counter offensive tells it all. This is a far cry from Putin organizing victory parades in Kiev for March 2022 when he had to be fantasizing grabbing Moldova, Latvia, Estonia, Macedonia and Lithuania as encores. The metaphor for how the mighty Russian military have fallen was the solitary tank in their annual victory parade in Red Square. The parade had been rained upon by two amateurish looking drones penetrating the defenses of the mighty Kremlin a few nights before. 

NATO has been strengthened as a result of Putin's thrust. All the members including Germany have increased their defense budgets and Finland has been admitted to the club with Sweden in the wings. The NATO Secretary General even visited Kiev signaling to the world that he at least backs Ukraine being admitted. Zelensky is careering around Europe, the UK, the Arab and G7 summits and has addressed the European Union who are considering Ukraine’s membership. Interestingly the South East Asian countries are publicly supporting Ukraine. They are more than mindful of the parallels of China eyeing Taiwan, their shared territorial waters and all manner of islands in the area. Russia/China have succeeded in creating a world wide alliance against their objectives.

THE AMMO

Biden who has been masterly in solidifying NATO and slowly upping the ante, not responding immediately to Zelensky’s demands for offensive weaponry but gradually giving more snd more sophisticated arms. He was driving home the point that he was not looking for World War III. A crucial game changer has to be the sharp change in the German stance, the EU’s most powerful member. Putin had to have reckoned that with Angela Merkel gone there would be no way that the EU countries let alone Germany would mix in. A turning point in the latter’s full commitment came when Chancellor Schultz made it quite clear that he would provide the tanks needed to push back the Russians if the Americans sent theirs as well. Adding these to the  American Hibar long range artillery as well as sophisticated drones has gone a long way in blunting the Russian offensive.

So NATO and the EU are delivering. The US has coughed up 55 billion dollars in aid to date and has supplied everything short of fighter planes which Germany and the Netherlands are on course to do.So while Zelensky wails that it is not enough he quickly follows up with the thank yous. 

The chief problem at the moment is ammunition which both sides have gobbled up in enormous amounts. The Hibar weapons have been able to penetrate the Russian ammo supply facilities up to a hundred miles from the battle lines forcing the Russian supply lines to retreat further and further back into their territory. The only good news with regard to ammunition is Russia is in a worse off position having emptied its arsenal. However if Zelensky wants to finish off the job he is going to need more ammunition - even more than he needs the fighter jets. Otherwise this is going to grind on and on.

MEANWHILE ON THE BATTLEFIELD

Well the latest was that the Russians were supposed to have a winter offensive which got stuck in a tiny town called Bakhmut. There is no one left and it is rubble but they desperately need to take it to show that they have achieved something over winter, even though it is small pickings. Even there the most recent missives claim that the Russians are in retreat.

 However as winter is over the next item on the agenda is the Ukrainian counter offensive. The Russians are having one last destructive go at “winning" by hitting Ukraine with a barrage of missiles including their much vaunted hypersonic missives, of which they have a very limited supply. This initiative gets them nowhere in the grand scheme of things as they should have learned that their wanton criminal destruction of civilian targets and infrastructure has not persuaded the locals to force Zelensky back into the new USSR. According to reports the Russians have fired eighty four costly missiles since March 9, eighteen of them on May 16. The bad news for them is that the ever increasing sophistication of the defense systems culminating with the American Patriot systems are knocking the missiles out. Russia apparently in this last desperate push have nearly exhausted their supply.

So the world awaits the Ukrainian summer offensive. Some believe it has already begun. There has been the derailing of trains and the bombing of military targets, fuel depots and infrastructure inside Russian borders and occupied territories.  Meanwhile Zelensky is keeping the enemy guessing as to when the real offensive might occur as he sends missiles here and there. Perhaps he is waiting for more ammo, the fighter jets and more significantly more disarray, confusion and arguments amongst the Russian leadership.

WHAT NEXT

It is fair to say the cause of Russian/China style governance has not gained any ground. The vulnerable former USSR countries can breathe a sigh of relief as the best Putin can hope for is he comes out of this is in one piece let alone rebuild the USSR. China and African countries want to mediate but this contest is going to have to grind to a conclusion. It cannot end like the other misguided twentieth century conflicts conducted by super powers. - you can’t just walk away and shrug your shoulders. Ukraine is determined to regain territory including Crimea. If they get enough ammo and the fighter jets, which Germany and Holland are negotiating, it may just happen. The Russians are digging in for a defense but this is not Stalingrad and the troops are underfed, underclothed, bereft of defense capabilities and just not motivated. 

The most likely scenario is that Putin gets axed and somebody new in Russia can talk his way out of this mess. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

There has to be an end of a day here and for the moment Western style democracy has outgunned the Russian version of governance. This could never have happened without Zelensky’s Churchillian leadership and the guts and fortitude of the Ukrainians -  both the civilians and armed forces.

Wouldn’t it just be great if Navalny was the next Russian head of State. 

Lest anyone forget, Ukraine is waging war on behalf of liberal democracies. No country is being entirely altruistic in supplying both human and hardware assistance.

China are hastily rearranging their priorities as the EU has the potential to be a massive trading partner. 

Xi Jinping has to be placing his Taiwan grab on the back burner especially as the G7 meeting is solidifying its support against the China/Russia neo colonial axis. 

The Chinese and the Russian cause is certainly being helped by the "GOP" holding the American economy hostage. 

WOULD CNN HAVE FEATURED JEFFERSON DAVIS?

There has been a central theme to both the defense and the prosecution counsels in the trials of  fourteen insurrectionists in the January 6 uprising - namely that Donald Trump instigated and instructed the mob to storm the Capital. The leader of the Proud Boys claimed that they were standing trial for what Trump called upon them to do while he was, (free), running again for President. The former and thirteen others have been found guilty of seditious conspiracy in that they conspired, by force, to prevent, the lawful transfer of power to the democratically elected President Biden. 

Trump has stated that he would pardon most of the convicted conspirators. The former President himself is under extensive investigation for his role in the illegal attempts to overturn the results of what had been found by his own Justice Department as a legitimate election. 

CNN, out of the blue, since the next Presidential election is eighteen months away, invited the said Donald Trump to a Town Hall in front of his own supporters

NO SUCH TREATMENT FOR JEFFERSON DAVIS

Jefferson Davis leader of the Confederates would have not been given a platform, with his cheering supporters in attendance, by the abolitionist media of the day after he fired those shots in Charleston in an attempt to overturn the Lincoln Government, even though he had the full support of the South. The fact that Donald Trump appears to have his party’s backing is therefore no more relevant than Davis having his.This all begs the question as to whether CNN would have invited Jefferson Davis to a Town Hall in front of his cheering supporters broadcasting to the whole of the United States the reasons as to why he wanted to overthrow the government.

WHAT WAS CNN THINKING BY HOLDING A TRUMP MINI RALLY?

For those who had the stomach to listen to CNN’s “Town Hall” with Donald Trump, held in front an audience of his acolytes, the question of why this was happening had to be central in their minds. Should there have been any doubt as to who the attendees were, the moment Trump appeared they stood up affording him a rapturous welcome. They had been recruited from central casting from “Truth Social”. If that wasn’t warning enough that the watching public were about to be subjected to the usual diet of lies, half truths, conspiracy theories, abuse, authoritarian policies, misogynist jibes, the paternalistic ignoring of the moderator and the worst of everything else that were hallmarks of a Trump rally, then nothing was. 

The question had to be what was CNN thinking? And the answer had to be ratings. In the full knowledge that Trump in a national debate against Biden had stomped all over a seasoned anchor Chris Wallace to expect thirty one year old Caitlyn Coilins to control him was either rank ignorance or cheerfuily sending a lamb to the slaughter for the sake of ratings. What is more CNN had to know that Trump would have not agreed to this indaba had he believed he could not fully control the proceedings. He has already stated that he is not interested in the debates of the Republican primaries and would not participate. 

There were only two groups who really had a stake in Trump’s command performance and they were both from the legal fraternity. Those litigating Trump were happy that their recording machines were on while Trump’s own lawyers had to be moaning that with a client like that the prosecution doesn’t need any other witnesses. 

Listening to the talented embarrassed CNN panel attempting to discuss in all seriousness the relevance of this infomercial about someone, who is about to be indicted for his role in overturning an election that he lost, was educational to the point of banality.. Trump had continued that the election that he had lost was rigged and that he had won. One cannot rationally debate someone who is a pathological liar. Who in addition laughs off the legal system and who has labelled CNN "Fake News". 

Jay H. Ell cannot  go through the litany of disgusting positions that Trump reiterated in his ninety minute monologue. Suffice to report that he advocated that “My Kevin” should see to it that the United States should not pay its debts and in effect declare bankruptcy and that he made it clear that he backed Putin in the war between the free world and fascism. 

The only positive part of the show and its aftermath was the focus group of nine participants eight of whom had voted for Trump in the past two elections. None of them believed that Trump had said anything new and only one of them after the evening’s infomercial had definitely decided for Trump in 2024. 

WHAT PRICE FREE SPEECH?

While everyone agrees in Free Speech and exchange of viewpoints this does have to occur within a framework of reality and the supposed trappings of a democracy. You cannot discuss the outcome of sixty court cases with someone who argues, with no supporting evidence, that the system is rigged against him, (including those judges he had appointed); you cannot debate why someone who refused to assist the beleaguered Congress claim that he offered ten thousand soldiers when there was uncontested testimony by his Minister of Defense that he didn’t; it is not possible to break bread with someone who in spite of a jury finding that his sexually abusive behavior was liable to the extent of a five million dollar penalty that this conduct is befitting for the star that he is and on and on. None of this was unexpected but can stir his base to do the most scary undemocratic actions. It also legitimizes this behavior to vulnerable minds coming from an ex President speaking on Prime Time TV.

The answer would appear that Trump or his likes should only be given a platform under controlled conditions such as a Presidential debate where each side’s microphones can be turned off after the allotted two minutes. One doesn’t need to hear from him till if and when the occasion arrives. If of course he is convicted of insurrection and therefore unable to stand for office there is no real reason to hear from him at all in the context of him being the star of a "Town Hall".

One fact is for sure. If he is indicted he wont have a word to say in the courts where he is expected to make several appearances in the near future. There speech is controlled by a set of rules that date back to time immemorial. Where calling the Judge a “whack job “ whether he  or she is or isn’t simply is not allowed although it would be greeted by guffaws at CNN Town Halls and hysteria at Trump rallies.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Thee is so much more to add that isn't being said elsewhere. 

Even Fox ignored the event discussing Hunter Biden’s corruption although they couldn’t really explain why Trump’s Department of Justice could find nothing in four years

God Save The King and God Save America 

CAN MCCARTHY CREATED ECONOMIC CHAOS ALTER BIDEN’S 24 TRAJECTORY?

 

Joseph Biden already the oldest US President on record and President Donald Trump, already the second oldest President to be elected, are set to be the contestants for the 2024 Presidential election. As matters stand Biden would win if the election was held today and even tomorrow. 

The “GOP’ have no coherent policy to run on. Trump, who totally dominates the “GOP” message, is running on the mirage that he won 2020 election. What policies the "GOP" have are at total odds with the electorate, eighty percent who want gun control and sixty percent who want abortion to be allowed up to twenty three weeks. Trump too is compromised up the ying yang and the last election cycles have shown that he has lost three crucial demographics - the suburban former Republican women, the independents and some of the blue collar workers in the MidWest. In addition the youth have become involved as never before because of gun reform and a woman’s right to choose. 

 “My Kevin” McCarthy, the Leader of the House of Representatives is Trump’s handmaid and the tactic is to change the narrative to favor Trump. This he can do only by throwing the country into economic chaos and then refer to the “Good old days” under Trump. The mechanism to crash the economy via the McCarthy controlled House is by the refusal to automatically raise the “Debt Ceiling”. So what is the Debt Ceiling and why is it important? 

THE DEBT CEILING 

Each year Congress passes a budget and seventy - eight times in the last sixty years the moneys allocated for the budgetary items have been insufficient to cover the cost. The Government had reached what is called the Debt Ceiling. The procedure under these circumstances is for Congress to raise the Debt Ceiling which they have done 49 times under Republican Presidents and 29 times under Democratic ones since 1960. In effect by so doing they are increasing the amount of money the Government can borrow to pay for items that Congress had already passed. The latter includes government employee salaries, medical and entitlement costs and bond holders - local and foreign. In short by not raising the debt ceiling a fiscal crisis will be created in America and the world plunging it into a recession if not a depression. The full faith and credit worthiness of the American Government will be lost in the process.

Only once in the past sixty years has the party in control of the House of Representatives not automatically raised the Debt Ceiling. Republican Speaker Boehner demanded budget changes before supporting paying the country’s debts. In effect he was holding the country to economic ransom for political gain. That was when Obama was President and Biden was Vice President. The belief was that Obama would cave as he was responsible for the country’s economy. However he didn’t and the impact on the financial markets was disastrous.  Boehner quickly recanted and this move impacted negatively on the Republican Party. So why on earth would they try again to risk wrecking America’s economy and standing in the world?

WHY MCCARTHY IS RISKING AMERICA'S ECONOMY

Boehner was a rational actor and McCarthy isn’t. Both were responding to pressure from the Freedom Caucus to put the economy at risk. Boehner subsequently resigned as he could not function as the Speaker with the right wing pressure. Paul Ryan his successor exited the job for the same reason. McCarthy ranks being Speaker above everything else. The other variable in relation to McCarthy is that he is “My Kevin” and the “My” is, as he proudly acclaims, none other than Donald J. Trump. 

McCarthy approached his task recklessly to get everyone in his thin majority on board this potential train wreck. He basically accepted every provision the wild right demanded and promised the moderates to introduce legislation that was in sync with the “American Room”.

So the McCarthy Debt Ceiling resolution was conditional on Biden emasculating his legislative triumphs with the electorate suffering. "My Kevin" has no maneuverability even if he wanted to negotiate in good faith.  Most of the MAGA Freedom Caucus are anarchists in terms of normal politics. McCarthy agreed in fact that any one member could bring a motion of no confidence  to the floor if they believed he wasn’t sticking to the script they had laid out when they finally agreed to him becoming Speaker. To reinforce the cost of their acquiescence they only called their opposition quits after fourteen votes. They really don’t care if they turn America upside down as anyway they want to remake it in their own image. So there is no way McCarthy who believes being Speaker is more important than anything that America stands for will back off. Also “My Kevin” owes it to Trump to create the economic chaos that might just allow him to have a shot at becoming President again. 

WHAT ABOUT BIDEN CAVING?

So if McCarthy is not going to back off like Boehner did what are the chances of Biden caving? Biden has been around the block and then some. He has to be the most astute politician around. He has quietly legislated a revolution, won and retained the Senate and avoided the midterm slaughter in the House of Representatives. His calculous is that the “GOP” cannot carry through with this as the responsibility of not paying the country’s debts will rest on their shoulders. With Obama he outstared Boehner last time round and the Republicans paid for their recalcitrance. He is being asked to nullify the significant progress that has been made. If he backs down he will also weaken his position in the Presidential run off against Trump. He can and has offered to negotiate the next budget with McCarthy but he cannot surrender his and the Democratic Party’s achievements and agenda.

 Biden has rarely been on the wrong side of a political calculation. He knows if he surrenders on this issue America is kaput anyway with his agenda negated and Trump elevated to a fighting chance in 2024. Everyone, perhaps unrealistically, is looking to him to weave some political magic but he has to know that this one is out of his hands. He has delivered the goods to the electorate so he has to hope that will somehow impact on the "GOP" moderates in the caucus.

The stakes have never been higher. Biden has to believe that the pressure within the “GOP” caucus will force McCarthy to back off since the impact on the constituencies of at least thirty “moderates” will be vast.   

WHAT OTHER FACTORS ARE AT WORK

One of the motivators of Boehner calling it quits was big business pressuring him as the markets began to crash. There doesn’t appear to be that much interest yet and so far the markets have ignored the crisis.

McConnell can’t be too happy with the whole idea. He knows that on balance the “GOP” will have to shoulder the blame in a Debt Ceiling debacle. He wants to win the Senate and knows that this can’t help. His approach at the moment is publicly shut up. .

Four extremists didn’t sign onto the motion one more and it loses. Anything could upset one of this lot as McCarthy has to wiggle around the fears of the moderates, particularly the eighteen that are in Biden won districts. The Democrats have already begun campaigning in some of these districts so the pressure is going to build. The moderates are in the worst possible position as this motion will go nowhere and they are left with this vote and nothing to show for it. Their constituents will not be impressed that McCarthy told them the motion was just to initiate negotiations!

Another of the “GOP” problems is that in at least thirty seven of the “GOP”  constituencies the voters benefit by the increased number of jobs that Biden’s new energy program and infrastructure and CHIPS legislation has produced.

The markets are going to get jittery as the period for America to  reach the Debt Ceiling draws nearer. Janet Yellen has just announced the possibility of a June date. Interest rates will rise even more and inflation will get worse. 

The back off for both sides may come via the “Problem Solvers” Caucus in the House. 

PROBLEM SOLVERS’ CAUCUS

The Problem Solvers caucus is a group of 63 Congress members 31 Republicans and 32 Democrats, who seek compromise in situations like this. By the Group’s very nature their work is not public and they keep a low profile. While their commitments are obviously to their respective parties they seek to avoid catastrophe and catastrophe is where this stand off is heading. The members also recognize that they have no power or standing. They acknowledge that in spite of their efforts that they may not be able to avoid crises such as the Debt Ceiling. 

They have put forward a four step plan to confront the issue. Firstly, suspend the debt ceiling till December 23, 2023 and till after the 2024 election if three further commitments are made.They are to establish an independent commission to recommend a package that could stabilize debt and deficit; adapt budgetary controls for the 2024 budget and change the budget process in a manner which will allow for more consultation and debate through committee work. All in all a reasonable approach but one that the Freedom Caucus would never agree to.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It looks like this is heading for an economic crisis. 

This is not Biden’s first rodeo. There is absolutely no way that he will cave. He will be waiting for a break from the other side, which is as brittle as a twig. If that occurs it will come via pressure on the “GOP” caucus via big business and or the constituencies of the moderates. May be The Problem Solvers will exert pressure?.... 

Biden knows how tenuous McCarthy’s hold on the Speakership is. The latter is already getting antsy moaning in Israel, of all places, that the President has not contacted him yet…..

There is a possibility that the crisis that is already shaping up will be blamed on Biden and that the GOP either have another candidate and or that Trump has not been convicted of anything serious. In that event Biden’s trajectory to another term will be blunted. Whichever way this is viewed trust in America will have taken another blow.