SOUTH AFRICA - THIRTY YEARS POST MANDELA’S INAUGURATION

 

South Africa has to occupy a unique place in modern day history. It witnessed a powerful governing minority voluntarily cede power to a subjugated majority. The White Nationalist authoritarian racist government which had given every indication that with its guns and money that it would dig its heels in and cling to power till kingdom come, entered negotiations that could only herald the end of their white rule. For those who lived through the jackboot days of naked racism and abrogations of the rule of law, dressed up in the canard of “Separate Development” which had been the euphemism for the despised term apartheid, it was a mind boggling transformation. 

 The dictum that dawn follows the darkest part of night could not have been more apt with regard to the setting into motion of the bloodless revolution that ended apartheid. The Nationalist Party Caucus had replaced the outgoing cantankerous and dogmatic Prime Minister Botha with its most right wing candidate Willem de Klerk. Little did anyone guess that within a few years de Klerk would lead the whites to accept a unitary South Africa. 

Thirty years later this great transformational event has been negated by disgraceful greed and South Africa is one step away from being a failed state. 

FROM APARTHEID TO UNITY TO DYSFUNCTION

There are many ways to tell this epic saga with many dramatis personae playing various roles. The colossus of the drama was of course Nelson Mandela who thirty years ago in a fairy tale ending to a dark story became the First President of a new South Africa. While there has been progress and remarkable integration of all aspects of South African life he may well have been furious at the turn of events which has seen sections of his beloved African National Congress, (ANC), and an elected leader, Jakob Zuma ,who served two terms as President, bring the country to the brink of bankruptcy through naked shameless corruption on an unimaginable scale. The upshot has been the nobbling of essential infrastructure, increasing unemployment, even more widespread poverty and a six fold devaluation of the currency. 

Thirty years post Mandela, a new administration tries to claw its way out of the byzantine mess caused by nearly two decades of mismanagement where the ideologue President Thabo M’Beki did nothing to further Mandela's progress followed by President Zuma who steered the country in a banana state direction. The hope is that Mandela’s purported original choice as a successor, Cyril Ramaphosa will somehow right the ship. 

There are many novels, historical works and biographies whose titles serve to tell the modern day story of apartheid and its end. Jay H. Ell will touch on a few.

FOUR STORIES

Alan Paton’s South Africa’s most famed author summed up the fifty year Apartheid era in several best selling works. The first, the heart breaking novel “Cry The Beloved Country” and a later, “Ah,  But Your Country Is Beautiful” are two that exemplify the tragedy of a country beset with racial discrimination. The former novel detailed the tragic outcome of the inequity of white and black South Africa and was a foretaste of the pain that was to follow as racial segregation and discrimination became enshrined in law and practice in the half century that followed. Paton’s later novel encapsulated the faint praise of visitors to the exquisitely “beautiful” South Africa as the dark age of apartheid settled In. It focussed on the earlier heroes that battled the system.  Nelson Mandela’s “Long Walk To Freedom” documented the icon’s interpretation of the tedious, dangerous and courageous battle towards change and equity. Finally, John Carlin’s “Invictus” heralded  Mandela’s joyful, positive, optimistic and healing approach to creating a “new” South Africa. Jay H. Ell believes that the messages of all the four works still ring true in some form or another to this day. 

Following Mandela’s first and only term as President the afterglow continued as he pursued tolerance, peace and causes such as the diagnosis, treatment and elimination of AIDS in Africa. The latter effort was particularly significant as his successor Thabo M’Beki was an AIDS denier. Mandela thus propped up the uninspiring terms of the ideologue Thabo M’Beki but the hangover effect could not survive the retrograde impact of two terms of a corrupt populist, Jacob Zuma.  But before we get there and discuss where we are today let us see what has happened those thirty years,

MANDELA THE PRESIDENT 

Amidst great fanfare, jubilation, and a general aura bordering on euphoria, in April 1994, Nelson Mandela won the Presidency of post apartheid South Africa, The event was all that more stunning in a milieu which everyone had predicted would be an endless bloody brutal suppressive struggle of propping up white minority rule. To all and sundry's amazement sanity, compromise and negotiation triumphed. Mandela’s unlikely partner in this unheard of ceding of political power was a doyen of apartheid and one of its chief architects, Willem de Klerk who had held the Cabinet Position as Minister of Bantu Education prior to his elevation by the right wing of his party to the Presidency. "Bantu" education didn’t even pretend to be “separate but equal”. 

In this remarkable display of largesse all round the percentage of the white electorate that didn’t go along with De Klerk was minimal, The “white” Party that opposed the new Constitution was headed by former military commander, Constant Viljoen and received two percent of the total electoral vote. Put another way nine out of ten whites voted for de Klerk who had negotiated away white political control. Viljoen himself had played a crucial role in preventing a violent right wing white uprising.

This societal optimism was matched by the economic possibilities that this outcome foretold. In truth the White Government had put in place a working infrastructure that could be built upon. The capital that was being promised to this future breadbasket of Africa allowed for the growth of employment and the Africanisation of the civil service and the economy. The latter outcome was essential so as not to make a mockery of the transition that had just taken place. In a study published by the International Money Fund the first ten years after the ending of apartheid saw the pace of growth doubling and inflation brought down to low levels. By the year 2011 the Gross Domestic Product had tripled but then it all began to hit the fan. The good times were not destined to last forever. 

JACOB ZUMA CORRUPTION AND STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES

Jacob Zuma, a populist, began his Presidency in the same manner he ended it - under a criminal cloud. President elect Zuma was charged with corruption for an arms deal which his financial advisor was convicted for. There was also a messy public trial for rape where he was found not guilty. When he was forced out of power in 2018 he faced 16 charges of corruption.

One of Zuma’s earliest moves - a highly contentious nuclear deal with Russia - was so off kilter that it was blocked by the Western Cape High Court. The problem Zuma created from the get go was his unashamed involvement with a family from India with whom he and his family had deals with and who appeared to have immense influence on governmental decision making, including cabinet appointments. It was over this period the many State Owned Enterprises degenerated from bad to worse. To this day there is the dreaded “load shedding” where the country has, daily, periods where there is no electricity. The South African Airways went belly up and the Railways are barely functional. The Post Office has become almost totally unreliable. Zuma succeeded in leaving South Africa with a junk bond rating and it has been left to Ramaphosa, his successor, to  bail the country out. 

RAMAPHOSA - INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL POLITICS

Ramaphosa, with a razor thin majority against a Zuma candidate in the ANC nomination process, still has to cope with corrupt administrators and politicians from the previous administration. Ramaphosa was immediately courted by Western Countries, being the first recipient of a State Visit to the United Kingdom where he was the personal guest of King Charles who bestowed honor upon honor on the South African President. Likewise President Biden gave him the full treatment with a WhiteHouse tour. All this in an effort to keep influential South Africa on the side of the West. However the ANC with very powerful Russian and Chinese influences still in evidence  resulted in South Africa declaring that they are in the “neutral” camp on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. South Africa are part of the BRIC group of Brazil, Russia, China and India. Recently they held joint military exercises with China and Russia, Obviously the hope is to obtain as much international support aa possible. 

The African National Congress is losing support and face the possibility of not having a majority in 2024. Also the party faces the embarrassment of the successfully run municipality of Cape Town and Province of the Cape both of which are under control of the Democratic Alliance, (DA). The DA’s success is compared to the shoddy administrations run by the ANC.The latter rather than allow the DA to gain a foothold in other municipalities has been forming coalitions with parties to the right of it such as the Economic Freedom Fighters. The latter have consistently gained about ten percent of the electorate while the DA has double the support.

Ramaphosa has been dealt an extremely difficult hand and the outcome of the next elections are crucial as to whether he can set South Africa on the right path. In the meantime he has to cope with a slow and steady brain drain which was exacerbated by the Zuma years. The latter created a despondency as his shoddy kleptocratic regime was responsible for the pathetic services provided by the state, increasing unemployment and the subsequent poverty and crime that these circumstances inevitably engender,

WHERE ARE WE NOW WITH THE FOUR STORIES

There is plenty about which to,“Cry the Beloved Country”. The hardest pill to swallow is the lost opportunity to consolidate the progress made by the creation of the new South Arica. The suburbs are under siege with barbed wire and privatized security very much in evidence. Infrastructure has suffered as billions have been syphoned off by Zuma and his cabal.

“Ah, But Your Country is Beautiful”, that reality mercifully has remained unchanged. Tourism post Covid is reaching record heights. Cape Town has been voted the number one destination by UK travelers. The area surrounding the Cape is seeing more and more wine farms opening with endless attractions, from wine tasting to restaurants to demonstrations on every manner of topics. The hotels are booked up all along up the Cape Garden Route and the prices are invariably marked up in dollars. 

Attractions such as animal sanctuaries often have two prices one for those with South African identities and another for the visitors. The game reserves are another unique destination. The top dollar reserves such as Sabi Sabi are up to $2,000 a night. But when the prices, like in the local restaurants are in rands, there are eighteen rands to a dollar, the fine cuisine is cheap by international standards.

Mandela could never have imagined that after the “Long Walk To Freedom” that the struggle’s success would be sabotaged by a collection of venal crooks who would argue that they never joined the ANC to be poor. The centuries' long struggle did not have as the objective to make office bearers of the ANC rich. However Mandela who had seen it all would have accepted the block in the road on the path to freedom and soldiered on.

WHAT NOW?

The 2024 election exactly thirty years after Mandela took office will have a great influence on the direction of the “Long Walk To Freedom”. If the ANC gets over fifty percent Ramophosa could be in a stronger position to introduce reforms. The fear is that if he doesn’t he will form a coalition with the Economic Freedom Fighters who are demanding nationalization of the means of production. Why wouldn’t the current Premier go in that direction? The current mess is as a result of state capture of essential services followed by inefficiency and corruption. Also, as former head of South Africa’s largest Trade Union and a successful businessman in the interim he fears that major companies won’t invest in SA under those circumstances. On the contrary money will flow out, a circumstance not conducive to sorting the current income inequities, poor public services and unemployment.  So maybe he better start talking to the DA and maybe the DA should once and for all get its act together. 

As for the celebratory  “Invictus”, Jay H. Ell optimistically jumped the gun when Ramaphosa was first elected, on November 19, 2019 that all would be well.(See blog, “Sport and Politics- Mandela and Trump”. To find the blog easily go to the blog page to the heading “Blog Archive”, click on 2019, then on November, Then click on the third one down!). 

So the ball is in Ramaphosa’s court who is a leader who is hampered by his own scandals. He is dealing with a party that is  still racked with corruption which he needs to take on otherwise history will lump him with the whole rotten crew.  

AT THE END OF THE DAY

No one can write off this remarkable country in Africa that  produced four Nobel Peace Prize winners in the twentieth century, but The Long Walk To Freedom has lengthened immensely.

There is one fact that cannot be blurred - the South African Government’s “neutrality” on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. If the situation for potential financial aid is that desperate so as to not to condemn the neo colonial expansionism, by force, led by a war criminal, the mess is even worse than it appears to be. 

WHY NETANYAHU FOLDED AND WHAT COULD BE NEXT.

The year 2023 in Israel heralded its 37th Government since Independence in 1947. Netanyahu cobbled together an extreme right wing and religious coalition; giving away as many promises to his partners as had Kevin McCarthy, to gain the Speakership of the House of Representatives. Netanyahu, like his former soul mate Donald Trump, had a far more pressing problem than the welfare of his country, namely the threat of prison that his ongoing trial of corruption foretold. 

The top priority of his bare majority administration was the axing of the Judicial system and the introduction of legislation that only allowed the Prime Minister to be removed if he himself so agreed or by a two thirds vote of the legislature, with no Judicial review.  These issues have taken up the entire three months of the new Government's agenda in spite of the fact that the subject was not part of the election campaign of the Likud party. 

Current Israeli law allows for a Prime Minister to be removed If a criminal investigation into him is imperiled by his conduct. The proposed legislation also annuls the separation of powers in the Israeli system and the issue precipitated the most widespread continuous opposition in the nation’s history. Besides the protests opinion polls show that two thirds of the population are against the legislation that has already passed the first of the three votes needed.

 NETANYAHU AND HIS FAMILY - ISRAELI ARISTOCRACY

The current Prime Minister Netanyahu is the longest serving Premier in the nation’s short history - fifteen years. This is his sixth term. The latter facts alone are indicative of the ambivalence that the electorate has of him as he goes in and out of power. He is highly secular and is currently standing trial for corruption charges which he vigorously denies.

Benjamin Netanyahu by every analysis is Israeli aristocracy. Bibi, as he is known. was the first Israeli Prime Minister born in Israel after its Independence in 1949. All the other other previous incumbents were immigrants to the eventual Israel State. What is more his father and alter ego rolled into one, emigrated to the territory in 1920 and was considered one of the  intellects of modern Israel. Bibi inherited his father’s drive and his giant chip on his shoulder. Benzion, the father, the foremost scholar on the Spanish Inquisition, had to move to the United States to further his academic career in the fifties. Not that daddy Netanyahu was a stranger to the United States having spent nearly a decade there as an activist to the founder  of Israeli revisionism, Jabotinsky. 

 Benzion Netanyahu had the unique distinction of opposing the UN decision to create the state of Israel in 1948 because he opposed the partition into Israeli and Palestinian States. Ironically his allies were the surrounding Arab countries and the Palestinians themselves who immediately declared war in what is now referred to as The First Israeli War of Independence. Benjamin in his own way has developed the same destructive attitude to the Sate of Israel but nobody could have ever accused Benzion of being corrupt and acting in any way other than to further what he believed the Zionist State should be

Bibi was the second son the eldest being Yonatan, one of Israel’s greatest war heroes. He was the head of the elite commander unit that conducted the successful audacious Entebbe rescue of the hostages held by the Arafat’s Popular Liberation Front. Of the 106 hostages four remained behind as did Yonatan who was the only Israeli soldier killed in the rescue.  Bibi’s eldest brother was a national hero, the raid being named after him ..  then there were the movies…. 

Bibi, although he served with distinction in the military never reached the top leadership positions, unlike several of the latter day premiers such as Rabin, :Peres, Sharon and especially Barak and Gantz. Both the latter are very much alive and kicking and championing the opposition to BibI’s attempt at selling Israeli democracy down the river, many believe to avoid a prison sentence, at the expense of turning Israel into a theocracy. 

ISRAEL’S JUDICIAL SYSTEM, THE “REFORMS” AND WHY

Israel like most democratic countries has an independent Judiciary. There are lower and higher courts, the highest being the Supreme Court. There are also separate military, religious, labor and administrative tribunals. The Supreme Court which has jurisdiction of all the other bodies as well as hearing appeals from the lower courts is the ultimate arbiter of the law and its interpretation, much like it is in the USA. However unlike the latter the politicians don’t control the membership. They have four representatives on the selection committee. Five of the nine members are made up of members of the Supreme Court, itself, (three), and members of the legal profession, (two). The Chairman of the Committee is the Minister of Justice who with the three current Supreme Court Justices may nominate a candidate who if elected is subject to a term and an age limit. 

The reforms suggested are fairly drastic. First and foremost any decision by the Court can be overturned by the Israeli Knesset, (Parliament), by a simple majority. The government in power will have the decisive say as to who will be on the body. Israeli cabinet ministers can ignore the legal advice of their legal team, which under the current system they cannot. 

One "reform" in which the court would not be able to review  - namely that the attorney - general is no longer entitled to call for the Prime Minister to resign has already been passed  However that law is still vulnerable unless the legislation to  emasculate the Supreme Court is passed. Hence the urgency to do so by the current regime

It is fair to say that the Court is regarded as secular and left leaning politically. For the extreme right the major criticism has been their protection of Palestinian rights particularly in East Jerusalem and for the ultra orthodox their recognition of LGBT rights and their inability to enforce jewish law in institutions. In addition the extreme orthodox still want their children exempted from army service. The Court at the moment can overrule any administrative decision. An issue currently is that the extremely religious have ruled that over the Passover holiday ordinary  bread cannot be brought to patients in hospitals. Under the "reforms" the Court would no longer be entitled to review this decision.

The net result of the introduction of all these "reforms" was that all hell broke loose in Israel.. 

THE PROTESTS AND REACTION

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For over three months now hundreds of thousands of Israelis have flocked to the streets waving flags and protesting. Bibi had to believe he could ride this one out but the numbers at protests have been growing. There is no central organization but there definitely has to be underground messaging to bring the masses out in short term notice. The crowds have literally on occasion brought the country to a standstill. When the USA Secretary of Defense visited Israel recently the roads surrounding the airport were blocked and the meetings with his counterpart had to be held at the Ben Gurion airport itself. 

As the inactivity and intransigence of the Bibi coalition grew the consequences escalated. Nation wide strikes were organized threatening to grind Israel’s buoyant economy to a halt. Banks, ports, restaurants, airports, and business particularly restaurants shut. There was an outflow of capital. The normally resilient Israeli currency dropped five percent in one month. Citi Bank has predicted even greater losses if the situation does not settle Then there was the threat that those in the professions especially those in the digital world would leave. So the constitutional crisis has become an economic one as well.

Previous Prime Ministers, cabinet officials, intelligence and military officers all adding their five cents worth told the current Premier to cut it out. Bibi hung in claiming that the mobs had been instigated by a minority. He had already been warned by his own Attorney General that he should not be involved in the judicial legislation as he was subject to a criminal indictment. Bibi all but told him to jump in the lake and soldiered on. 

The major crisis that ensued was what the Premier considered treasonous. The Defense Minister told him to drop the issue as reservists were stating that they would refuse to sign up under the current circumstances. Bibi then fired the Minister of Defense and threatened criminal prosecution of the reservists. As an indicator of Netanyahu’s loss of authority in the situation the Defense Minister refused to step down. 

The bottom line is that Bibi was beginning to realize that this was out of control. The cherry on the top was when Biden felt forced to publicly condemn the Israeli moves and American Jewry distanced themselves from the Netanyahu regime.

THE AMERICAN SCENE AND BIBI

Netanyahu had long laughed off the bulk of American Jewry who are members of the Conservative or Reform movements. This is not the shrewdest of tactics when world Jewry amounts to fifteen million, eight of whom live iIsrael and about six million plus in America. There has been a longstanding tussle as to how the Right Wing Israeli extreme orthodoxy view this group. 

Jewish organizations acted viscerally to the recent crisis. A 134 societies, religious groups and organizations, condemned the judicial legislation and petitioned Biden not to allow Bezalel Smotrich, Minister of Finance, a visa for a business trip to the USA. Smotrich is distressingly provocative claiming for example that the Palestinians are not a people. Biden never took away Smotrich’s visa but there was no contact on a Government level. The only Jewish organization in America not to condemn the ongoing travesty is AIPAC, a pro Israel lobbying group. They have remained quiet.

Bibi has stated that his allies In America are the Christian Evangelicals who are a pro Israel block. Their religion maintains that the Messiah cannot return unless the State of Israel exists. It does not bother the Israeli Premier that on the arrival of the Messiah if the Jews fail to convert they will be killed, as he is profoundly secular!

So Netanyahu with disdain for the overwhelming majority of American Jews has another cross to bear as it were. History will confirm that it was by his efforts he initiated the breakdown of bipartisan political support for Israel. In March 2015, in an unprecedented move he bypassed the Democratic President of the United States and accepted an invitation to address Congress from the Republican Speaker. In that speech he lambasted President Obama and his prospective nuclear deal with Iran. Ironically it was Obama’s Vice President, the current President, Joe Biden who attempted to heal the wound that had been created by Netanyahu’s intervention in American politics on American soil.

BIDEN - NETANYAHU 2023

There was much back and forth in private between the American and Israeli government officials as the Biden administration tried to get Netanyahu to back down. Secretary of State Blinken reportedly warned him that he would come out of this like like Viktor Orban the authoritarian leader of Hungary, who Biden had pointedly not invited  to his virtual indaba of a 120 democratic countries. But to no avail. Biden who rarely publicly negotiates, responding to immense pressure opined: “Like many strong supporters of Israel I’m very concerned,,,they cannot continue down this road. I’ve sort of made that clear. Hopefully the prime minister will act in a way that he can work out some genuine compromise, That remains to be seen”. 

To which Netanyahu responded, “Israel is a sovereign country which makes its decisions by the will of its people and not based on pressures from abroad, including from the best of friends”. Pretty rich from Bibi bearing in mind his mindless intervention in 2015 and that his coalition has not a plurality and two thirds of the Israelis are against his proposed legislation.

Biden’s rare public rebuke and non invitation of Netanyahu to the WhiteHouse sent additional shudders through the Israeli military and security establishments and exacerbated the financial implications of the move. Biden's warning plus the crescendering protests with their adverse economic and security impacts, resulted in the Premier calling it quits, at least for the moment. He agreed that he would not proceed with the legislation for a few weeks till the end of the Passover Festival. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The largest irony of this whole sorry saga is that the protestors  are the citizens responsible for the image of Israel that Bibi boasts about to the world - its economic success its leadership in technology particularly in start ups which rivals that of Silicon Valley with innovations such as desalination of sea water and WAZE, the original GPS. Also the security which he proudly states is his greatest achievement, is dependent on the military which is all but in open rebellion.

Likewise the source of the generous welfare provided to the ultra religious right has as its origin the entrepreneurship of the secular endeavors which has built the thriving economy, all of which is sinking as a result of the instability brought about the rush to axe the current democratic separation of powers. 

There is an argument that this judicial fight is a proxy clash between the growing demographic of the ultra orthodox right who have large families, immigrants from Russia, Arica and former Arab countries versus the left wing secular Zionists who originally were the majority population of Israel. The logic continues that even if the liberal secular group win out in this battle they will lose in the long run. Fareed Zakaria challenged Ehud Barak a former Israeli Prime Minister, who was also a former Chief of Staff and Israel’s most decorated soldier, with the latter contention. Barak countered  that the younger generation of the ultra orthodox demographic are more and more inclined to be educated in modern day curriculae and desire to do their share in military service. He stated that the issue for the moment was the ensuring of Israeli democracy.

There is little doubt that Netanyahu will not budge unless he is assured that he is not risking jail time. His flagrant disregard of his own attorney - general not to be involved in this judicial conflict is evidence, if any is needed, of that fact.

Jay H. Ell believes that if a deal is to emerge in this cooling off period between Gantz, Lapid and Barak on the one hand and Bibi’s Likud on the other it will be that members of the Likud party, two who are already at odds with the Premier, who will force it, Five are needed. Incidentally the protestors have made it quite clear that they are not about to fade.  

The whole episode may catapult Israel into yet another General Election. It would be the fifth in just over two years. 

The future of Israeli democracy for the meantime hangs in the balance.