GEORGIA SENATE RUN OFF - FOR ALL THE MARBLES

There is a great big myth floating around the Southern State of Georgia, namely that it is purple. At this point in time it is not. It is Republican with two Democratic Senators and one is coming up for re election. Biden also surprisingly beat Trump by eleven thousand seven hundred and seventy nine votes in that state as well. So to date it has been pro "GOP" and anti - Trump.

 In the 2020 election Georgia was one of the places Trump rallied night and day. Trump was not very popular to put it kindly and Stacey Adams, a superb Democratic strategist, lost the 2020 Governorship by forty odd thousand votes. Both the Senators were running, against Trump endorsed candidates. 

Well one of those candidates the Reverend Warnock who preaches in the same Southern Baptist Church as the late Martin Luther King, is up again for re -election against a Trump backed candidate on December 6 2022. Although the Democrats have retained the Senate as Jay H. Ell will explain this race is a crucial contest for many reasons, political, legislative and to assess whether the ‘GOP” can get it together to win back the Senate seat. But first let Jay H Ell explain the importance of this run off and why it is for all the marbles.

GEORGIA SENATE RUN OFF - FOR ALL THE MARBLES

The question is why Georgia is so important even though the Democrats control the Senate when it is fifty fifty split with the Vice President Kamala Harris having the casting vote? The issue is one not really appreciated by the majority of citizens. Firstly, there are several bills in the Senate  where one or other of the Democrats are not in sync with the other forty nine members and so legislation cannot move forward. The “GOP’ are desirous too of appearing to stop the midterm momentum on “We the people" towards democracy and a woman’s right to control her life. The latter position which is so unpopular with the whole electorate is one that the “GOP” are stuck with as they ran on it in the midterms. 

Most important is the fact that while a fifty - fifty Senate gives the Democrats who occupy the White House the majority it results in an equal representation on the committees of the Senate. This will have the effect of delaying judicial appointments and has the potential of creating havoc when the Senate takes up investigations that will be axed by McCarthy in the House such as the January 6 Committee investigation. If the Democratic Party, (DP) has fifty - one votes they can constitute committees with a majority of their members thereby eliminating any potential chaos and delay. 

 

That is why this rerun is for all the marbles.

MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN GEORGIA 2022 AND THE 2020 GENERAL ELECTION THAT  PRECEDED IT

Following the 2020 election where Biden won the State by 11,779 votes, Trump intervened and tried to pressure the "GOP" Georgia State Legislature, Governor Kemp, Secretary Raffensperger and election officials to overturn the election result. It was an ongoing campaign involving his soul mate Senator Lindsey Graham, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Rudi Giuliani and a gaggle of other lawyers. Election workers were harassed and felt their lives were at risk and on and on. 

The Georgia hierarchy from Governor Kemp to the lowest Georgian election official stood firm. Their election results were accurate. All the stories of machines changing votes, suitcases of Biden votes were considered and found to be bogus or to use Trump’s term “Fake News”. 

This attempt has landed Trump in a pile of legal trouble as a fearless prosecutor is the Fulton County of Georgia is conducting a thorough investigation into Trump’s attempt to overturn an election and the Courts have ruled in every instance that all of the participating hobnobs appear for questioning by a Grand Jury must give evidence. In another related case a Federal Judge has maintained that Trump probably committed a crime in Georgia as well as perjury in his presentations to the court. However this is a story for another day in the not too distant future but it makes the point that the Georgian "GOP" establishment rebuffed Trump and stuck to their guns. That decision had a major impact in the 2022 midterm elections for Congress.

In the 2022 midterms Governor Kemp beat Stacey Adams by two hundred thousand votes, that is a one hundred sixty thousand votes more than in 2020. Brad Raffenperger won his Secretary of State position by a similar margin. In fact the Democrats won no State office positions and lost the State legislature soundly. The whole crowd that wouldn’t listen to Trump were re elected by bigger margins.

 The only ray of sunshine for the Democrats was that Senator Warnock in his bid for reelection beat his Republican opponent Herschel Walker by thirty - eight thousand votes. Herschel Walker was backed by Trump and won the Republican Primary. That was enough for two hundred and forty thousand Georgians to split their tickets from voting for every other Republican except Walker. The problem for Warnock is that in beating Walker he did not obtain fifty percent of the vote. Georgian law then requires a run off between the two top leading candidates.

WARNOCK v WALKER RUN OFF - WHY WALKER HAS A CHANCE TO WIN THIS TIME.

Common sense would dictate that Warnock, who really is an outstanding and highly respected candidate, is favorite to win the run off. This time there is a straight forward choice. Herschel Walker’s claim to fame, as one might expect of Trump nominees, is that he is a celebrity. He is considered an American College football legend as one of the great running backs of all time winning the prestigious Heisman trophy for the best player in College Football. All this while playing for the University of Georgia. That is where his relationship begins and ends with Georgia. His registered residence is in Texas. He lied that he graduated. He is against all abortions yet two women have claimed that he paid for their abortions with him being the father. He is for family values but his son claims he is an absent parent and a total phony. He allegedly pointed a gun at a woman’s  head and on and on. Yet he came close enough to Warnock in the 2022 midterms to force a run off.

The difference this time is that all the sick components of the “GOP”, (Blog: USA 2022 MIDTERMS: “WE THE PEOPLE DELIVER” November 20, 2022),  have coalesced behind him. Even Governor Kemp, vilified by Trump, beloved of the Georgian Republicans has backed him. Kemp has even  appeared in adverts for Walker as well as appearances at his rallies. Rick Scott who opposed McConnell as leader for the Senate is down in Georgia canvassing for him as is Senator Lindsey Graham, Donald Trump’s chief acolyte. Mitch McConnell who has criticized the standard of candidates that the Trump sect foisted on the "GOP", has backed good old Herschel. So united they stand the wrecked "GOP" party.

The impact of this “togetherness” is at this stage is uncertain.The most confusing  fact to the Georgian swing voter is the Kemp Georgian establishment “GOP” backing Walker. However Kemp doing one for the team may not do his personal position much good. Already he finds himself having to dissociate himself from Trump, claiming that racists have no place in this country. However Walker is Trump’s nominee the self same Trump that Kemp defied and got him re elected by an increased majority, 

WARNOCK v WALKER RUN OFF - WHY WARNOCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE TO WIN.

Warnock as the incumbent has to start as favorite. The one scientific poll shows him four and half points ahead, just in case anyone still believes in polls. What may well clinch it for the incumbent is that there has been a surge of support for him on the ground. The DP have literally thousands of voluntary and paid workers that are knocking on doors. This has resulted in him outraising Walker, having over fifty million dollars in the bank to Walker’s twenty one million due to small donations.

Two Georgian State Supreme Court decisions will help the Reverend’s cause, The court overruled the “GOP” State Secretary’s attempt to limit early weekend voting to one day allowing Counties the option of two days. Needless to say it was the DP run counties that opened up and on both days one hundred and eighty thousand voted with African Americans, who support the DP nine to one, disproportionately represented. They have stood in lines that stretched around the polls. Then on the Monday and Tuesday over a record three hundred thousand voted on each day thereby thwarting the move of  the “GOP” to limit the DP early vote.

In the same Georgian Supreme Court session that voting was extended, the court ruled that the six weeks Georgian "GOP" ban on abortion could be put in place. In case anyone had forgotten abortion was the main motivator for the young who voted nearly twice as much for the DP. The youth too were  also in the record voting line ups. 

Trump a gift that keeps on giving - Guess who came to Thanksgiving Dinner

Trump can be relied on to produce something that will put off the moderates and swing voters. It is obvious that he is living in his own reality where he must still believe that he can mobilize the base to make him President once again. He had Thanksgiving dinner at Mar a Lago with Kanye West, (Ye), who has lost all his advertisers because of flagrant anti semitism. So “Guess who Came To Dinner” with him? Michael Fuentes a holocaust denier and lead anti semite in America who has advocated the expulsion of Jews from America and hailed the January 6 attack on The Capitol as “awesome”. 

The news of the dinner was met by a stoney silence initially from the leaders of the Georgia “GOP” coalition. The only Republican of note was an almost declared candidate for the “GOP” 2024 nomination for President, Governor Hutchinson of Arkansas. His condemnation was followed days later by Georgia Governor Kemp stating outright on a Tweet, “Georgian Gov. Kemp on Trump’s dinner with antisemites and a white nationalist: ‘Racism antisemitism and denial of the Holocaust have no place in the Republican Party and are completely un American'”. Apparently Kemp forgot he had signed onto Team Trump to take one for the team. Trump responded that he was ashamed he endorsed Kemp in the midterms. So where does that leave the Trump voter?

Former Vice President Pence, another almost declared candidate for the “GOP” nomination. carried on his ridiculous two party race within his own persona, condemning the meeting but reassuring all that Trump was not an anti semite!. However Pence said that Trump should apologize. Florida Senator Marc Rubio, mindful of the number of Jews in Florida, kind of pretended Trump wasn’t there and just condemned the pair of antisemites and white racists. Ironically one was black, (Ye has produced a tee shirt claiming that white lives matter). The consternation that this dinner produced, finally, after a week, the two that really matter in the wobbly “GOP” coalition, namely the “GOP” leaders of the House Congressman McCarthy and Senate Mitch McConnell to speak out. 

McCarthy took the Trump line that he did not know who Fuentes was then lied that Trump condemned Fuentes. McConnell came out very strongly against Trump saying that what Trump  did not qualify to be President of the United States  So much for the coalition.  

Trump’s explanation for the dinner was that, “Ye had been very good to him and came to him for advice.”. He then maintained on his new platform, “Truth America”, that he didn’t know who Michael Fuentes was. Just as he claimed that he didn’t know who David Duke the former head of the Klu Klux Klan was when he supported him. 

So in the words of William Barr, “Bullshit”. Not only does he know who Michael Fuentes was, no one can get to see the ex President without being vetted because his security detail has to background check every one who comes into see the former President and inform him. Ye for example could have brought an assassin to kill Trump.

Meanwhile while Warnock is running ads of Trump resounding announcement for his support for Walker’s nomination for the Georgian Senate while the so called anti Trump, Governor Kemp is also running ads in his support. All the while Trump is ashamed for endorsing Kemp in the midterms! (if in fact he really did because Kemp has called him un American!}. Who on earth can sort this all out.

Election denial is a gigantic flop

The  total election denial strategy called for by Trump/Bannon has only been evident in Arizona and some obscure County in Pennsylvania. In Arizona it is led by Kari Lake the defeated  ‘GOP” TV anchor who ran for the Governorship and Michael Fincham who lost his attempt to become Attorney GeneraL. The two have not conceded their loss.  The Pennsylvania county under legal threat ratified their result leaving only the one in Arizona county hanging in there. The Attorney General of that County has refused to represent the Election committee as they broke the law. The Voting Supervisor admitted that their refusal was a protest at the Maricopa Count ratifying that the DP winning that County's crucial race and had nothing to do with their own results.

 

Trump’s support of seditious conspirators

The trials of the eight hundred leaders of the January 6 rush on Congress to prevent the ratification of the 2020 election proceeds apace. There are those who have pled guilty to seditious conspiracy to overthrow the American Constitution. There is no gathering of their followers around the Courts to stoke the Trump revolution. Many of the defendants in these marathon trial claim they were obeying President Trump’s bidding. 

The fact that two leaders have been found guilty of Seditious Conspiracy has to make Trump shudder as he is their leader. Also the January 6 Committee, the Justice Department as well as the Georgia Fulton County Grand Jury with the Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling that everyone has to appear at every lawful investigation are well into their investigations. Now Trump barks that all the January 6 participants are patriots and when he regains his rightful Presidency he would pardon them. There have been no outpouring into the streets with the trials or guilty verdicts.of the Oath Keepers. There are more trials to follow.

The Minority vote in Georgia - The Jews and the Asians 

Most significantly the twenty six percent of Jews that voted for the “GOP” in 2022 midterms which if the numbers are correct involve forty thousand citizens in Georgia. They have at least to give their devotion to Trump another thought. They were two major Jewish organizations involved in making appeals to Jewish voters.  There was AIPAC which supported only candidates that were pro Israel including sadly some who were “GOP” candidates that were election deniers. The other organization is JStreet which takes the line that if there is no democracy in America then all else is irrelevant. Richard Haas a former advisor to President Bush and well known author who had been a Republican all his life resigned two years ago and exhorted all, even in synagogues, whatever their politics were, to vote for democracy and therefore the DP in the midterms.

The other crucial minority in the Georgia run off are the Asian and Pacific Islanders whose turnout has doubled since 2016. There are nearly five hundred thousand citizens in that group who all recently were not proportionately active at the polls.They overwhelmingly vote DP. There is no reason to believe they are not participating in this voting blow out in the Georgia run off.  

It is the economy and inflation stupid. Or is I?

The “GOP” to a large extent, where they did look to issues, accentuated the "Disastrous Biden" economy and inflation. Inflation is currently down and did not effect ThanksGiving travel which was back to 2019 numbers. Also retail on Black Friday registered twelve percent higher sales than last year. However the biggest blow to this theory is the kicking in of  Biden’s economic benefits for the elderly. A  greater percentage of senior citizens pulled the lever for the “GOP” in the midterms. By now they will have all received a letter from the Social Security Services indicating that their monthly payments have increased by eight percent and that their Medicare deductions will be far less. Gas prices our down. Unemployment is still at a record low at three and a half percent. The Federal reserve has given up the ghost and has decreased the decreased the size of the interest rate hikes. All this cannot pass unnoticed.

It is Jay H. Ell’s belief that the economy and inflation will impact very little in the Georgia run off.   

The factors that ten percent of the voters in the midterms stated  in exit polls that were important in their voting decision making - Immigration. LGBT rights and Gun control

Immigration which the “GOP” punted to kingdom come in the midterms has not gained much traction as yet. Florida's Governor de Santis, who actually rounded up “illegal” immigrants in the State of Texas giving them false promises then, using Florida tax payers' money flew them to Martha's Vineyard. All this to make the point of the "illegal" immigrant problem. It had no resonance whatsoever. On balance de Santis has faced litigation as a result. For the moment immigration, a massive “GOP” talking point, has fizzled. In the Georgia run off they have hardly mentioned it.

LGBT Rights as a result of the mass murder of gays and the attack on the perpetrator by a Veteran who was at the club just to support his daughter, refocused attention on the hate that the extreme right had generated. This is an issue that was supported by a bipartisan law in the Congress as a result of public support for these rights. Justice Thomas of the Supreme Court, the darling of the right, had threatened to prohibit same sex marriage. Needless to say the “GOP” have avoided this issue like the plague in the run off.

Gun control - a slew of mass murders over the election period  resulted in a record number of six hundred have been recorded in America this year. Again the NRA, which is under a cloud, having not been backing up there cry that “They want to take away your guns”. The time is ripe for the banning of automatic weapons which no reasonable person can argue that you need to go hunting. 

THEN THERE WAS CRIME

Crime was a big deal in the midterms with Fox the major megaphone trumpeting that the it had increased under Biden and the DP. If their reporting is a parameter as to the problem of increased crime, it has dropped to almost nothing!

RACHEL MADDOW'S PODCAST

MSNBC number one anchor Rachel Maddow has  produced a podcast entitled ‘DUAL”. The content being a little known episode in World War !! where twenty three members.of Congress were paid by Hitler to promote Nazism. (Just for the record Charles Lindbergh was a Nazi supporter and  a friend of Hitler. His organization was called America First). 

Maddow discusses that the Congressmen were powerful enough to have two investigating prosecutors fired as a result and rather than face reality they proposed investigations into the Justice Department for their efforts. The trial for sedition ended in chaos and the defendants emerged scot free. One of the prosecutors released his report to the public which included oral and documentary support from Nazis and their files to support what they had discovered in the USA. The only outcome was that these Nazi backers received was that they were not re elected to the Legislature.

Maddow’s podcast has already had ten million hits the highest number in history and is still going strong. It is obvious that it hs a wider influence than just for the faithful.

Well this time round in 2022 midterms besides the election deniers mainly not being elected the Justice Department has promised that anyone involved will be prosecuted by the full weight of the law and have already obtained historical convictions of Sedition and Conspiracy of the leaders of the January 6 insurrection. The activities of the former President have been condemned by several members of the “GOP”. The outstanding exception being leader of the “GOP” in the House, Kevin McCarthy who has promised the extreme right in return for their votes to elect him speaker, investigations into the Justice Department and the Investigators. Jay H. Ell in his previous blog cast doubt that with the slim majority of the “GOP” that McCarthy could obtain the two hundred and eighteen votes needed to be Speaker.

  

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It looks as if Walker has given up the ghost. At the crucial only weekend voting, when Warnock was photographed in one of the long lines so as to register his vote, there was not a peep from the former running back who appeared to be running away from Georgia back to Texas.

Elon Musk has answered the question Jay H. Ell posed to him in the last blog - namely would he have given Hitler, Stalin and Mao a platform on Twitter. He would have.  

Barack Obama, the most popular political figure in America, is appearing in Georgia this week. He will be accompanied by Michelle.

The January 6 Committee is about to present its report and all their transcripts are available to the Department of Justice. It promises to be a blockbuster.

Bet you that Trump wishes that he and McConnell hadn’t blocked Attorney General Garland’s Supreme Court nomination.

Trump is still favorite for winning the “GOP” Presidential nomination.

Jay H. Ell predicts that Warnock, a worthy successor to the Martin Luther King legacy will win all the marbles for the Democrats. Kemp however is the big variable.