Everything points to a rerun of the 2020 Presidential election in 2024. Biden has led the Democratic Party to a historic midterm performance in spite of rising costs and inflation. This has consolidated his support within his party should he elect to run. Meanwhile Trump’s core base will not budge as a result of the devastating exposures of his illegal behavior even if these result in prosecutions and convictions.
The fact that Kevin McCarthy, the leader of the Republican majority in the House has swallowed the Kool-Aid and regards Trump's support as essential to his election as Speaker illustrates the MAGA boss's hold over the “GOP”. All the January 6 dramatic revelations will do is reinforce Trump’s and his cult’s belief in their victimhood. Moreover the majority of the “GOP” legislators will not cut him loose because they cannot win without his base. So once again, in 2024, in one way or another, it will be Trump v Biden, (or their surrogates), as it was in 2020 and the midterms. Jay H. Ell will outline what has led him to this conclusion.
ZELENSKY’S VISIT TELLS IT ALL
If any historical event `illustrates the difference between Trump and Biden it is the Ukrainian - Russian conflict and the attitudes of Trump and Biden towards Russia’s Putin and Ukraine’s Zelensky. Trump supported Putin over his own American Intelligence personnel. He refused to release Congress voted funds to Ukraine unless Zelensky provided dirt on the Bidens leading to his first impeachment. Biden’s role has been central to Zelensky’s success galvanizing NATO support for him.
Just in case anyone has any doubt where the Trump mob stand on Zelensky’s visit to the USA. Donald J. Trump Jnr tweeted that Zelensky was, “Basically an ungrateful international welfare queen”. For those who are not aware of the smear that Trump Jnr was alluding too, it was a depiction by Ronald Reagan, of those who were recipients of the Democratic Party’s welfare programs as being crooked freeloaders.
The irony is that baby Don’s freeloading dad has been exposed as a grifter and a tax cheat, who had his Charitable Foundation closed down because he spent other people’s donations for his own account and his University shut down after settling twenty -five million dollars to the students he defrauded.
There is little doubt that the Majorie Taylor Greene’s of the world agree with the Trump position and will make Kevin McCarthy’s position even more impossible much to the Democrats delight. The Freedom Caucus Squad made their feelings known at Zelensky’s speech to the Joint Congressional Hearing by literally sitting on their hands as their colleagues of both parties gave repeated and prolonged standing ovations.
For anyone with any political savvy the fact that the Republican leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell was a proud participant of the Zelensky visit while McCarthy was nowhere to be seen gives some indication that the “GOP” Legislators are not all one happy family.
While foreign policy is rarely central to USA elections the fact that the Trump “GOP” and its main barrel organ FOX NEWS are against foreign aid for Ukraine does not help their cause. Zelensky has an approval rating of seventy - two percent in the USA and was TiME’s Person the Year.
THE MIDTERMS - BIDEN’S LEADERSHIP
Jay H. Ell maintained that the underlying narrative for the 2022 midterms was Trump versus Biden. (BLOG: “The Midterms? They Are About Trump and Biden Stupid”, September 8, 2022).
Biden, in spite of criticism within in the Democratic Party. (DP), made it clear that the 2022 midterm election represented a “Fork in the road” in the future of America. To reinforce the enormity of the historical significance of the election, the Forty Sixth President chose as the venue for his election message, Independence Hall, Pennsylvania, where the original American Constitution was hammered out.
Biden coupled his appeal with support for a woman’s rights to an abortion, the removal of which the “GOP’ had engineered. The abrogation of this right had been as a result of the decision by the Supreme Court to axe it. Trump had promised that his Supreme Court nominees would deliver this outcome. Moreover Justice Thomas, whose wife was active in the movement to “Stop the Steal”, has threatened LGBT rights and a couple’s right to contraception.
Biden had been proved right with his message, (BLOGS, “USA Midterms: ‘We The People’ Deliver” and “Georgia Senate Run Off - For All The Marbles”, November 20 and December 1, 2022 respectively). The red wave that was predicted by the “GOP” and the media barely produced a trickle. In so doing Biden and the DP defied history as the average loss of the Party that occupies the WhiteHouse is twenty - six House seats as well as Senate losses. This electoral performance was in spite of the fact that the “GOP” made it more difficult for African Americans to vote and for Democrats to cast votes in their traditional way, prior to the actual election day.
THE “GOP” LEGISLATORS UNFASED BY REVELATIONS ON TRUMP
The question facing the “GOP” Legislative leaders was whether or not they would recognize that Trump was the antithesis of every value their Party once supported or would they continue on the path initiated by Nixon to try and establish America as a White Autocracy. (BLOG: “Genuine GOP Leaders Please Stand Up - How The Hell Did We Get Here”, December 10, 2022).
The verdict on the “GOP’s” central dilemma Is out. If we take, for example, the response of the “GOP’ members on the Ways and Means Committee in relation to the release of Trump’s taxes, they are loathe to cross the leader of their Party. Ironically the last President to try not to share his tax returns was President Nixon whom Jay H. Ell credits with setting the “GOP” on the path to negating the GOP’S historical mandate. Nixon eventually recanted and produced his tax reports. He was anxious to show the American public, “That their President was not a crook”. Trump and his Party have not such a lofty ideal.
To further add to the “GOP” Legislators slavish commitment to Trump, “GOP” House Leader McCarthy has promised that his agenda for the next two years will be to attack the investigators of the Trump coup attempt. McCarthy will also take up Trump’s original quest to Zelensky and investigate Hunter Biden. While “GOP” Senate Leader McConnell has responded that, “The entire nation knows who is responsible for that day. I don’t have any immediate observations”. He refuses to answer whether or not he would back Trump if he was the “GOP” nominee for 2024.
The question still remains as to what the evidence is as to where the American voter stands at the moment and where they might be in 2024.
BIDEN AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S CHANCES OF BEING IN POWER IN 2024
It is fair comment that in 2022 the “GOP” had everything in their favor yet they performed way below expectation. This was largely because the party is splintered. Even their attempt to maintain a united front in Georgia was shattered by Trump having dinner with antisemites and racists.
High inflation and poor economy were supposedly the priority for GOP voters for 2022 Midterms. While traditionally these are the factors that are central to decision making in elections, cultural issues, “stop the steal, democracy and a woman’s rights were crucial in 2022. The shadows of Trump and Biden thus overhung the proceedings. The Trump base was concerned with the “stolen election” of their cult leader. In the contested electoral contests these election deniers faired poorly, boding badly for Trump’s 2024 chances
Biden and the DP have plenty to look forward prior to 2024. At the time of writing inflation has begun to recede, gas prices are down almost to precovid levels and unemployment is at record lows. The threat of a recession has to be outweighed by the impact that the Biden economic stimuli will have on senior voters who have traditionally been the preserve of the “GOP”. The seniors will receive an dight percent increase in their social security checks, a marked decrease in their Medicare payments, decreases generally in their copays for medicines as Medicare negotiate prices and a cap on the price of insulin. In addition their out of pocket medical expenses will be cut to two thousand five hundred dollars.
Build Back Better and Infrastructure and Jobs Legislation.
A reduction of health care costs is in Biden’s “Build Back Better” legislation which is directed at improving standards of living of the middle class. The Act provides extensive home care support, expands opportunities for post school education as well as providing substantial funds for combating climate change. The Infrastructure and Jobs legislation which gained bipartisan support will provide an estimated two million jobs a year and the impact will begin to be felt in the next two years. It is aimed at creating Union Jobs as does the Build Back Better legislation.
It is well recognized that the infrastructure such as roads, bridges, electric grids are in need of upgrade and or repair. Also there is provision to improve and increase the transport service from rail to buses and provide high speed internet for the whole country. Inroads will be made to install facilities to provide electricity stations for cars and to electrify buses. Water purification has been a problem in certain areas and will be addressed as will be the devastation brought about by climate change.
Every sector of the population will be impacted by these programs which will be largely funded by the abolishing of tax cuts for the rich which were introduced by the Trump administration.
There is little doubt that the impact of these projects will ameliorate any setbacks produced by the pullback in the economy and the increase in interest rates thereby blunt the thrust of the “GOP” to run against a Democratic Presidency. The impact will be on all voting sectors.
The Prospects for the Swing States in 2024 with 2022 Midterms as a pointer
As a background to Biden’s and Trump’s approach to the 2022midterms they both mimicked their 2020 Presidential election scenarios. Biden was low key holding rallies in a few States and steering clear of any state where he might be a handicap to the DP Candidates. Trump was more than hands on. He dominated a host of Primary Races and in the subsequent closely contested midterm contests his candidates were literally thrashed. In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia his much vaunted candidates were beaten. In fact in the eight key races in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona the “GOP” only won two, the incumbent Senator in Wisconsin and the Governor in Georgia who led the Republican Office bearers who refused Trump’s efforts to “Find me 7,800 votes).
The DP improved on Biden’s numbers in 2020 with the exception of Nevada where there were still much that could encourage the Party for 2024. If the demographics of the voters in 2022 are analyzed the reasons for Biden and a positive DP outcome in 2024 become evident.
VOTERS FOR 2024 SLICED AND DICED
The probability of senior citizens viewing Biden and the DP more favorably have already been discussed above. There is also an increase in benefits for the Veterans of various wars who have been struggling to obtain health care for problems such as exposure to Agent Orange, Burn Pits and other toxic substances. The act allows survivors and their families to claim.
The youth voted in numbers greater than any other midterm In history. Their number one issue was abortion which as an issue will not go away in the next two years. The threat is also to contraception usage. The youth vote was up to thirty points higher for the DP in the swing states. In addition even in “GOP” controlled states, and the rural entities, the youth voted at least sixty to forty percent in favor of the DP.
Fifty - two percent of the voters were women and they represented fifty - five percent of those that cast ballots. The DP were the beneficiaries of this over representation. Elaine Kamarck of the Brookings Institution remarked that, “Analysts and pollsters underestimated the impact of abortion rights in driving the vote.”. Jim Messina, former Deputy Chief Of Staff in Obama Administration claimed that, “Once again it is the women who saved us”. It appears that the former suburban Republican woman voter has permanently moved across the aisle.
The Independent vote which is now is the key constituency with a third of registered electorate broke for the Democrats. This obviously played a crucial role in the swing states. Examples include, Arizona, (55 - 45). Nevada, (48 - 45), Georgia, (53 - 47), New Hampshire, (54 - 46) and Pennsylvania, (58 - 42).
The Hispanic vote which the “GOP” believed they were winning over, other than in Florida was still staunchly Democratic. According to NBC in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, Latinos have stuck with Democrats at a time when the Latino population growth has exploded. In Nevada there is no doubt that the Latinos delivered as sixty - two percent voted for the DP incumbent. There is myth that the Latinos are anti abortion. A Lake Research Project showed that seventy - four percent of Latino registered voters supported a woman’s right to exercise her own preference..
The trend is undoubtedly towards the DP.
BIDEN v TRUMP 2024
Whether or not Trump is the nominee, whether or not he is indicted and or convicted, he will have still have a constituency that will make or break any “GOP” nominee. His following may be reduced but will still be twenty - five to thirty percent of the electorate. He will either win the “GOP” nomination if the Primary field is large, stand as an Independent candidate or tell his cult followers to boycott the election.
One fact is for sure with all the exposes from the January 6 Committee as well as the exposure of his taxes will result in the Independents firming their support for Biden and the DP.
While the majority of the Democrats indicate they would prefer another candidate this is unlikely to happen as the Legislators want Biden's stewardship. Even the Leader of the Progressive Caucus of the Democratic Party in the House, Pramila Jaypal has pledged support. She maintained that Biden wasn’t even her second choice in 2020. The Progressive Caucus has over a hundred members..
AT THE END OF THE DAY
It will be a while before America is sanitized from Trump and the worst he brought out in America.
For those who don’t believe that leadership matters write a short essay on the impact of Putin, Xi Jinping, Trump, Zelensky and Biden on the course of history.
Biden’s genius of inviting Zelensky to America at this time was for the objective of gaining support for USA involvement in the war against Russia and to reinforce the values that America has stood for.
Finally, Biden has restored America’s leadership in the world. His management of the Ukrainian war and the uniting of NATO members as well as increasing their membership has been masterly. "America is back" as he proudly announced. The good news is they are probably back for at least six more years.
Merrick Garland is unlikely to prosecute Trump for any crime that would result in him not being able to run for office. The conservative jurist would probably consider that as intervening in the political process.
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