PRELUDE
In 2013 following Barack Obama’s second term victory, Reince Priebus, the then head of the Republican National Committee commissioned a “Special Report” which opined that with the changing USA demographics, the Party could no longer be predominantly white and survive. In 2016 Donald Trump hijacked the party creating the MAGA “GOP” with the objective of one way or another creating a white autocracy.
THE MIDTERMS
The USA 2022 midterm elections are ending with the best results in ninety years for the political party who has a first term Presidential incumbent. (Obama shed sixty five House seats and Trump forty). Against all odds - the gerrymandering, the threats to poll workers and voters, the attempts at Republican State Legislation to suppress the African American vote, the poll predictions outrageously in favor of “Republican” big majorities with all the media going along and the supposed most important issues being rampant inflation and economy outstripping all the other election priorities. The Democrats emphasized that the midterms were a referendum on democracy itself and the the lives of women. The Democrats won out. The divined Red Wave wasn’t even a Red Drip.
Whatever they were all saying they were ignoring the two elephants in the room, President Joseph Biden and Former President Donald Trump. Their two visions were front and foremost of this midterm race. Biden’s “Democracy and women’s rights were on the ballot” turned out to the big winner and Trump’s autocratic “Only I can save America and was robbed in 2020” the big loser. Their alter egos former President Obama and Trump’s Stephen Bannon fared second best or worst as the case .
Not to say that this imperfect aspirational Republic is not still divided but nevertheless over sixty to forty percent prefer democracy, The divisions in the “Republican” Party run deeper and are still to play out. A key futuristic factor - Trump is down but far from out. He will systematically bring the whole “GOP” House down or attempt another coup. His historically early announcement as a candidate for the 2024 Presidential race is testimony to that. His naked agenda is to avoid legal jeopardy. That is a task seemingly impossible with the appointment of s special counsel and the Georgia State case wrapping up
However there is much behind it all and much to follow so let Jay H. Ell begin.
POLIITICAL STRATEGIES. AND OUTCOME - DEMOCRATIC PARTY
The bottom line is that the DP’s tiny majorities under the leadership stuck together, respecting the wings of the Party, from Bernie Sanders to Joe Manchin, the eye was on the ball. Just remember how every Presidential candidate dropped out of the Primary in 2019 when Joe Biden emerged, still behind in delegates, as the obvious winner.
There is much second guessing going on as to how the Democratic Party, (DP), in particular spent its money. However even when in USA midterm elections enough money is spent to run a moderate size country for a year there have to be choices. In 2022 seventeen billion dollars was splurged crashing a previous record in 2018 by nearly four billion dollars. The “Republicans”, “GOP”, had more than half, most coming from big donors while numerically the DP outpaced them alarmingly. As early as June 2022 the DP lead was sixty five million versus twenty seven million of contributions of less than two hundred dollars. The conventional garbage in all the media at the time was that the DP supporters were disengaged while the “GOP” voters were gung - ho.
The DP for the first time in history spent more money on their “ground game” than on TV adverts and other media modalities. This resulted in the DP focussing on State races with the firm objective to deny the six swing States decision making power to change the result of an election. Notably in Wisconsin they avoided a super majority in the State legislative body that could override the veto of the DP elected Governor. (Wisconsin is an example of the gerrymandering and inequity of the districts in certain States. The “GOP” with only thirty percent of the electorate are sure fire winners in six of the eight House Seats in the legislature).
The DP gamble paid off. Every decision making election denier who could reverse a voter outcome lost. Three Governorships changed hands to the DP as well as three State legislatures. The most sensational victory being in Arizona where Trump’s biggest supporter TV anchor Kari Lane lost in a photo finish. More tellingly the State gains were in the MidWest Rust belt of Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania where Presidential elections are won and lost.
The House of Representatives and the Senate.
Of course the focus of the world was on the those that make up the central legislative bodies. House of Representatives and Senate. For the first time since 1914 the DP were the only political party in any election midterm or presidential not to lose a single member. In the process they also turned a Senate seat in crucial Pennsylvania. The House losses were kept to a minimum. The “GOP” needed five victories to wrest control and there were already eight constituencies that had been “altered" to turn Democratic held seats to a strong "GOP" bias. Furthermore there were another eight that Trump had won in a landslide that the DP were occupying. That giving the "GOP" sixteen pick ups before the race was off. The DP reduced that gain by turning six “GOP” into their column. So far with a number of results still outstanding it appears that the final tally will look like “GOP”. 213 - 222. With Democratic gains they have basically kept gains down to the redistricting.
The Future
There is tremendous positivity around what is to come. The DP are quietly talking about getting as much done as possible in the lame duck session ending on January 6 2023 when the “GOP” takes over the House. They will attempt to pass legislation on the basis of Roe versus Wade. The DP with bipartisan support have enshrined marriage rights immediately post election. The latter were threatened for extinction by Justice Thomas. (The “GOP” got one message from the electorate where in exit polls over seventy percent supported the gay rights). They are also looking to pass the debt raising limit which Kevin McCarthy the current “GOP” leader of the House has threatened to block unless Medicare, Social Security and Ukraine funding are re examined.
They also will tout the impact of the Bipartisan Infrastructure and Job Act as the bridges and roads get built while the rural areas receive broadband… What jobs are lost as a result of the Federal Reserve fight on inflation will be replaced by that endeavor. In addition drug prices can now be negotiated by Medicare, insulin has been capped, and out of pocket medical expenses for an individual will be limited to two thousand five hundred dollars. In addition Biden is able to axe Trump’s tax cuts for the rich. Notice has been served that the highly effective January 6 Committee report will be out.
On the leadership question probably the most effective political leader of this era, Nancy Pelosi, has at the age of eighty - three stepped down as have the entire trio of House leadership including Steny Hoyer and the remarkable Jim Clyburn. There seems to be unanimity as to who will succeed them as a younger generation who have been schooled in that self same tradition. No - one is challenging Chuck Schumer DP leader in the Senate. However if he the time is ripe he will follow suit. Likewise everyone is behind President Biden who if he doesn’t stand there are a strong bench of charismatic contenders such as Governor Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro. The previous contenders such as the sharpest tool in the shed Pete Buttigieg have also have to be in the mix.
It is fair to say that the DP are unified and ready for all that is to come.
POLIITICAL STRATEGIES. AND OUTCOME - “REPUBLICAN PARTY.
The bottom line is that the “GOP” went into this election disunited and with several strategies and tactics with attacks on individual candidates for their stances. There were the Trump faction, which ran on election denial, those led by Senator Scott who put forward an a one page agenda and those who rated crime, inflation, economy as the top issues. Finally, the “GOP” Senate leader McConnell ran on just attacking Biden’s alleged "disastrous record" putting no agenda before the electorate.
Notwithstanding the above there was no concerted effort even by the non Trumpists to take on Trump.
The “GOP” relied largely on individuals or Political Action Committees to back their flavor of what the Party should stand for. They ensured that they won their Primaries and therefore became the candidates in the midterms. This turned out to be disastrous as they lost State legislature seats. Where they were priorities they were inflation the economy immigration and anti a woman’s rights.
As far as money for the State elections the gaps were filled as referred to earlier. Interestingly but not unsurprisingly those “GOP” candidates who did not support election denial fared better than those that did. The problem that the State electors were saddled with was the supposed agenda they had to defend. This included axing Social Security and Medicare, two of the holiest cows in the American safety net. The latter were being threatened by various factions claiming that it should be reviewed from immediately, every year and every five years. The result was as reflected above loss of State seats all round and every decision maker in all swing states defeated.
The House of Representatives and the Senate.
The Republicans boasted of a red wave yet they are with a slim majority in the House and outright defeat in the Senate. Their elected national representatives are as diverse as they were before the election. The House of Representatives now contains one hundred and forty odd election deniers, an increase of about ten. There is no possible way they will be able to pass any meaningful legislation in the House which would be at least show their supporters that they will carry out the issues they ran on such as inflation, crime and immigration. Interestingly there was much about the candidates being Christian and some even implying they were G - d’s will. The crisp point is they never announced any details of any issues because they have no plans apparently.
The Future
The “GOP” are hopelessly split as the blame game for the mess is on big time and the “GOP”’s future is very much tied with its present. The House says that its agenda is to investigate Biden through his son Hunter. That subject was seventieth in importance on the priorities of voters in the exit polls. Then Majorie Taylor Greene a luminary of the Trump cult is leading the charge to impeach Biden, Attorney General Garland and the like. See how much traction all that gets. Most have to answer for their support or non condemnation of Trump as the open and shut court cases proceed. They have the albatrosses around their necks of challenging the very existence of social security and medicare. They will be investigating Nancy Pelosi for the lack of security resulting in January 6 while the insurrectionists one by one get lengthy jail sentences and they will have to respond to the violence that Trump has threatened when his indictments arrive. They will continue to persist that attempted coups on Democracy are as same as the riots, “That black lives matter” following the airing of videos of the murder of George Floyd.
As far as leadership is concerned the old are not peacefully making way for the new. There are open election fights amongst the losers. McConnell’s leadership was challenged and he won by thirty seven votes to ten with presumably three abstentions. The House leader McCarthy received one hundred and eighty eight votes with a determined right wing vote of thirty one dead against. There will be two hundred and twenty two “GOP” members at best and he needs two hundred and eighteen of them to be Speaker of the House. Here and now that can never happen. The DP two hundred and thirteen will hang tight and all they need is five other non Trumpists to elect a neutral Speaker that is not a member of the House. Or maybe they will just stick around and watch the chaos as vote after vote doesn’t reach two hundred and eighteen and the “GOP” go back into caucus after caucus.
With regard to the “GOP” nominee for President a totally lusterless Republican Governor de Santis, who has not taken a position on any significant national matter, has been touted as nominee but there are several other candidates putting their names forward. Trump still has to be favorite if the “GOP” hasn’t the discipline, which it patently hasn’t, to agree on one nominee thereby deny him winning the nomination with thirty five percent of the GOP primary vote.
THE LOSER IN MIDTERMS - TRUMP
Besides decisively losing the right to subvert the intent of voters via State elections, Phillip Wallach a Senior Fellow at the American Institute Enterprise has quantified the impact of Trump endorsement and election denying. He analyzed a hundred and fourteen races where the margin of victory by either side was fifteen points or less ahead. The Trump endorsed candidates underperformed by five points whereas those that weren’t gained two point two above the 2020 Trump support. Wallach in his Washington Post article claims that this cost the Republicans at least five seats and a candidate such as Lauren Boebert only gaining a narrow victory. (Jay H. Ell believes that Wallach is being very conservative in his estimates).
However just in case this creates a false impression of Trump’s overall support he overachieved by one point six basis points where the DP had next to nothing of a ground game in Trump territory.
Trump is still very much a player although weakened. As the Mack The Knife song goes, “….and the line forms from the right dear now that loser Trumpie is still in town…..” The sell outs are in three groups, - the first, mainly the party’s intellectuals and organizers at nomination day up the 2020 election, a rush of mainly jurists, retired judges and a few politicians after January 6 coup attempt and finally the mad exiting following the 2022 midterms. From Chris Christie his chief election preparer, Pompeo and Esper his Secretaries of State and Defense respectively not to mention a slew of Governors, former members of his administration and finally his Vice President Mike Pence, who seemed to be running against himself for the “GOP” nomination all bolted for the door. Pence was so disingenuous that he could not explain why he could dismiss Executive Privilege in his aptly titled best seller, “So help me God” BUT not under oath to the January 6 Committee. One just cannot forget Bill Bar, trump's personal Secretary of Justice who carried Trump’s water till it all hit the fan. He, McConnell and McCarthy occupy special places in hell. Then the unkindest cut of them all first daughter Ivanka and son in law Jared copped out.
All this can be summed up by the fact that Nick Malvaney, one of his five former Chief of Staffs, claimed that Trump was the only candidate that could lose against Biden. And nobody but nobody of any “GOP” significance pitched up to his low energy candidature for Presidency At the same time all the big donors fled. The only bright spot was that Elon Musk in an attempt to save his forty - four billion ill gotten gains invited him back to Twitter which is in opposition to his, Trump’s own company, under investigation of course, “Truth Social”. But his biggest media backer Murdoch ditched him as well cutting of his national microphone.
As ongoing testimony to Trump’s negative effect look no further than Georgia. In the midterms “GOP” Kemp, who refused to overturn the 2020 election result, beat a rising star of the DP, Stacey Adams, by eight points but Trump’s nominee for Senate, Walker lost to DP’s Warnock by a percentage point. Warnock’s first ad in the run off to follow was Trump speaking at a rally supporting Walker!
THE WINNER BY A DISTANCE - BIDEN
Biden achieved in spades what he set out to do - make this a referendum about democracy with Trump the poster child for autocracy. It was not about him but Trump and of course Trump obliged. The President spent election night congratulating winners and losers of both parties. He said democracy had worked. He declared victory didn’t even wait for all the results and cleared off to shore up the coalition for Zelensky at the same time averting World War III. He was doing what USA President’s are supposed to do. If the polls were right are his approval number of forty odd percent a true reflection of reality?
What evidence has Biden have that democracy won. (He has plenty of support for DP initiatives as exit polls showed). The DP did not lose one case in the courts which involved unfair limitation of the franchise. The turnout was a record and early voting went unimpeded. There were no riots and revolutions by people or candidates. The overwhelming number of Trumpists conceded when they lost. The notable exception was Trump’s newest best friend Kari Lane, TV Star, and defeated “GOP” candidate for Arizona Governor. She even pitched up to Mar - a Lago to cheer him on.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Democracy has far from won the day conclusively. In the words of Churchill this could merely signify, “The end of the beginning”
It is a sad state of affairs but not too surprising how dependent America is on money for the their democracy.
The American electoral system is not reflecting the democracy it purports to represent.
When Trump gets indicted Jay H. Ell bets that violence won’t break out as predicted.
The scandal ridden Supreme Court with its lowest approval rating in history better right its ship. The only way Chief Justice Roberts can have any legacy is to resign and give Biden another pick to make up from the three stolen from the Democrats.
At the end of the day there were enough individuals with integrity and the institutions stood firm.
A new dawn is breaking.
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