The stars have never been more aligned for change. There is turmoil in every sphere of activity whether it be political, social, global, economic, climatic, religious adherence or societal value systems by which people live by. These transformational episodes in history have often been associated with the way communication is effected between peoples. While planet earth is reverberating with conflicts it is the political order upheaval that is the central focus of this blog. In this week's news, for example, Italy has a new right wing coalition government and the Iranian theocracy is in flames. However, it is the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine that will decide whether the world’s nations will generally be governed by varying democratic processes or by a dictatorship where the people have no or few rights in return supposedly for safety and stability.
As history has shown again and again, leadership is key to deciding the direction of the future. It can be argued that the leaders are merely articulating what society wants but that is not the reality. Society perceives it the way it is reflected in the media, who report what direction, policy or action might occur. Invariably they will argue that “…. it is up to “Putin or Zelensky or whoever”. There are five leaders who are central to the current democratic crisis - Joe Biden, Vladimir Putin, Volodmyr Zelensky, Xi Jinping and Donald J. Trump.
Democracy as it has been understood to mean for nearly a century has been challenged by a world wide phenomenon called “populism” which is allied to the political systems in Russia and China. The traditional Western alliance is on shaky grounds from within and without. For the moment the conflict is being waged by internal struggles in the traditional democracies and by a war being conducted between Ukraine and Russia. The central battle within the a democracy is taking place in the world’s most powerful nation and oldest democracy, America. It is being led by Donald Trump who has hijacked one of the two political parties and who although his influence is diminishing he is still the leader of one of the two American political parties.
SOCIETAL AND POLITICAL UPHEAVAL FACILITATED BY COMMUNICATION ADVANCES
It has been shown that a change in communication modalities facilitate major cataclysmic societal and political change. The printing press heralded the Reformation that axed the Church’s absolute sovereignty in favor, ultimately of the nation state. The latter was preceded by religious wars that resulted in the death of a third of the European population. The twentieth century and its forerunner the Age of Enlightenment saw the rise of nationalism accompanied by the market economy and democracy expressed differently in the political systems of welfare societies, fascism and “Communist” autocracy. These three systems precipitated two World Wars and a “Cold War”, which lasted a half a century.
The means of facilitating this twentieth century change was via the radio, movie production and television It was in these formats that Stalin, Hitler, Churchill and Roosevelt and their successors dominated the world political, societal, values and belief system for over a half a century. “Communism” failed because it was never “Communism” but nothing but an imperial dictatorship, fascism collapsed because of its barbarism and reliance on racist ideology while democracy manifested through varieties of welfare states thrived. Francis Fukuyama the famed political scientist noted the dramatic rise of democracies from the nineteen seventies that were members of the UNO. Now nearly seventy percent have some form of democratic government. It was interesting to note that notwithstanding the positive nature of the political, economic and societal changes, the outcomes were decided by wars. Ideas sadly had to be backed by guns.
WHERE WE ARE TODAY
Today democracy is under challenge as unbridled free market philosophy and unchecked “democratic” power have produced inequities of wealth and opportunity, unashamed individualism, loss of community and disenchantment of the populace in it’s government, religions and social norms. The disenchanted, wittingly or unwittingly, have joined with racists, neo nazis, right wing extremists, radical religionists and the like to form coalitions against the establishment governments, who whatever their philosophy is they are perceived as the overlord establishment.
The protagonists modus operandi is wallowing in victimhood and blaming the "other" rather than help improve society. The internet with its instant global connections have allowed coalitions to form and in many instances magnify then unify forces that oppose democracy. Besides these groups two major powers have a vital interest in proving democracy a failure - Russia and China with India more than an interested spectator.
China has grown powerful by adapting the free market system which they have attempted to control by an authoritarian political approach. Russia on the other hand haven’t even bothered to build a manufacturing economy relying on their vast energy revenues to sustain their economy. The capitalism they resorted to was to dish out massive state enterprises to individuals referred to as oligarchs who in return for the favor support the President both politically and financially.
The globalization of the world, in this instance through the internet, has resulted in the ease of what appeared to be fringe political, social and religious groups becoming international agents for change. The internet has provided the platform for diverse groups, countries and movements to form a coalition against democracy.
Ironically the systems and politicians that have challenged democracy are today referred to as "populists", who cynically identify with the “oppressed” claiming that if elected to the position of unfettered power that “they alone can fix it”. Overtly and covertly they are being supported by Russia and China with India very much on the fence. These three major powers’ objective is to reassure their own citizenry that democracy is corrupt, inefficient and a non functioning method of government. This gives them license for their authoritarian dictatorial behavior and to savage opposition.
THE PARADIGM CHANGE IN THE WORLD ORDER BY THE TRUMP/PUTIN RELATIONSHIP
In relation to the changing world order nothing was more significant than the entry of Donald J. Trump onto the American political scene. Trump whether it be during his mass rallies, interviews, his appointments, or construction of the “Republican” election platform, from the get go, made it quite clear that Putin and his style of governing was what he favored. From early on he showed no allegiance to the traditional democratic institutions of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or the European Union. The Trump - Putin axis would form the nidus of all that followed. If anyone has any doubt as to the significance of this liaison they should read Peter Strzok's expose, Compromised. Strzok was a leader in the FBI counter intelligence operation into the Russian involvement in the 2016 Presidential election.
It is also no co incidence that Trump used the modern form of communication which could reach people instantaneously to great effect. He had a over a hundred million followers on Twitter and FaceBook. His usage and impact of this medium was a main contributor both to his election and to the organization of the January 6 undemocratic insurrection. His impact via Twitter was revealed by a whistleblower who has testified to the January 6 Hearing Committee. It is noteworthy that she explained to the Washington Post, that she saw unfettered Trump not only a threat to American Democracy but the manner in which it fostered violence and the like - a societal threat to our planet.
It is public record that Trump’s great admirer, Vladimir Putin, actively backed his candidacy for President. It requires no stretch of the imagination to accept that “populist” Trump and Russia’s Putin’s views of democracy were ad idem. Trump through his actions on behalf of America, which is the most powerful country and democracy in the world, threw the conventional democratic allies into a panic. Trump besides attacking his own institutions, administration and intelligence systems, by openly favoring Putin empowered the Russian dictator and his authoritarian views. When Trump threatened to bust NATO, the bulwark of the free world’s victory over Soviet totalitarianism, the USA military and civil servants did their best to paper the cracks.
Trump’s electoral coalition included, those that had financially suffered as a result of globalization, right wing groups from neo nazis to simple racists, religious fundamentalists and the members of the Republican Party who believed in their party and its leader, right or wrong. He seemed all set for a second term in 2020 and the majority of Americans shuddered with the “free world”.
Ironically it was Trump’s support of a racist group in a riot in Charlottesville Virginia that identified with the pro slavery Confederacy that provoked the elderly Joe Biden into announcing his candidacy for Presidency. He recognized the threat of a Trumpian United States being part of a world wide coalition of angry citizens, racists, neo nazis supporting the anti democratic agenda of Russia and China. Trump has proved far more dangerous and "semi" fascist than imagined. There is little doubt that whether Biden runs again is dependent on whether Trump or a sanitized Trump is the “Republican” nominee. Trump may be down but he is not out.
TRUMP ZELENSKY BIDEN AND RUSSIA AND THE “REPUBLICAN LEGISLATORS”
In retrospect Trump’s “perfect call” in July 2019 to Volodymyr Zelensky, three months after the novice was elected as President of corrupt and war torn Ukraine indicated much of what is now evident. Zelensky requested delivery of the money that had been allocated by Congress to fight his war against Russia who had already seized portions of his country. Trump made what could have been a simple request to the embattled President as a condition of releasing the moneys. He wanted dirt on the Bidens or at least announce that there was to be an investigation into them.
The fact that Zelensky, who had thus far only played a President on TV, failed to deliver what Trump demanded is unbelievable testimony to his integrity. The fact that Trump only released the money three months later when a whistleblower revealed the contents of his quid pro quo demand to deliver what Congress had ordered him to do is indicative of whose side Trump was on - if any further proof was needed. The stakes were tremendously high which again has now become evident - Putin wanted to smash NATO where the Ukrainians wanted to be and rebuild the old Soviet Union.
What is also significant is that in 2019 there were really only three people of consequence who considered the seasoned politician Joseph Biden as the next President. There was Biden himself, the highly respected Democratic operative James Clyburn and Donald J. Trump. Zelensky had to have a lot of nous not to mix into American politics. It is history that this disgusting episode by an American President, who besides siding with the enemy of an ally whom America was supporting in a war, resulted in his first impeachment. The “Republicans” did what they have done all along sacrificed their souls for political gain.
Like everything else with Trump this did not only involve a phone call there was a full court press to effect his objective involving the usual suspects such as Rudi Giuliani and anyone else he could pressure. The subsequent impeachment of Trump showed his behavior off in stark terms which would have made Richard Nixon blush. The trial in the Senate to remove him from office was only considered by a few "Republicans" as impeachable some of whom even thought he had “learned his lesson”. The “Republicans” were continuing their policy of appeasing a "populist" thug who was fashioning their party into an autocratic dictatorship. A thug who was conspiring with expansionistic neo fascist Putin whom Trump acknowledged “killed people”.
As Adam Schiff so eloquently warned, Trump would do this again and again. Trump’s initial acceptance of Putin “killing people” has escalated into the thousands in Ukraine. The Forty Fifth President to this day in his psychotic rants and adherence to Q,Anon conspiracy theorists, who love him and therefore he loves, still claims Putin is a “genius”. He is so desperate that he openly punts the theory that the world is run by pedophiles who control the dark state. Needless to say Trump has not got around to condemn Putin and Russia and has left little doubt as to who he will ally with if he becomes President in 2024.
In fact a simple read of the current position is that Trump regardless of his legal status will win the “Republican” Presidential primary.
PUTIN, XI PING AND THE NEW WORLD ERA IN FEBRUARY 2022
In February 2022 Putin believed that the time had come to put the jewel Ukraine back in the USSR crown, They had an inexperienced President with obviously no developed party and administation infrastructure. The democratic world were wary of America just having lived through the Trump era. They also had just stood by for eight years and accepted Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk as de facto part of greater Russia. Biden was weak within America and internationally and had an aversion to American involvement in battles far from home. He had taken the risk of just pulling his troops out of Afghanistan and taken the criticism on the chin. His irrelevance could not better illustrated by the fact that no one not even Zelensky heeded his warning that the Russian Premier was about to attempt to take over the whole of Ukraine.
The only unfinished business Putin had on his calendar was to go chat up his major ally Xi and off he went to detail his land grab. There was no better place to be seen publicly than at the Winter Olympics being held in Beijing. Xi had nothing to lose especially as he had similar plans for Taiwan. So just in case there was any doubt as to the standing of the relationship between the two super powers they issued a statement which was akin to a declaration of war. They declared:
“A new era in global order”, while endorsing one another in their Ukrainian and Taiwan ambitions. They challenged the liberal United States democracy as the model for the world and swore that, “Friendship between their two States, (Russia and China), has no limits, and there are no forbidden areas of cooperation”.
At that moment Xi was cock a hoop. Then his Covid figures were lower than anyone else. He had pulled off a Covid free Olympics that no one said he could do and he obviously agreed with Putin’s logic. (He should have questioned his intelligence gathering but dictators never do as anyone who brings them stuff they don’t like they tell them they are wrong. Hitler told his Intelligence operators not to bring him “defeatist statistics” and we all know what Trump told the world in Helsinki). They also hardly could given much thought to the capabilities of the new Ukrainian President
ZELENSKY
And so a new world hero was born Volodmyer Zelensky who emerged as an international icon in no time .He crushed any glimmer of hope that Kviv would be overrun in a few days rallied his country in great hardship was an articulate advocate for more and more aid while being exceedingly grateful for what they had already given. The Russian army suffered great losses and the position after six months is that old Volodymyer has them on the run. His troops have regained territory taken by the Russians and he has vowed to restore that seized in 2014. It is fair to say the comparison to Churchill is not hyperbole. There is little doubt too that no world leader in the democracy camp was talking about “Peace in our Time”:
He is also mindful that the Russian atrocities and war crimes have to be meticulously documented. Hopefully it will serve as a lesson and a reminder.
BIDEN
What the media and consequently the electorate don’t understand about Biden is you don’t really know what is going on as he is not on a soap box or social media fourteen times a day. He is the arch internal politician and to quote him, “He get’s things done”. Only now it has been learned that he has been warning Putin for months not to use nuclear weapons. For local recognition he has passed legislation which Congress had not done for years. No one knew he was talking to the fiftieth Democrat Joe Manchin who was publicly sabotaging Biden's agenda.
So it was full steam ahead with providing weaponry and creating coalitions to take Putin on. He had to be doing deals with Zelensky that he was phasing in the arms and was only to pleased that Zelensky was wailing that it was not enough. Biden had made it quite clear that he did not want to be involved in any action that would trigger off a Third World War while he and the rest of the "free" world were supplying the wherewithal to defend and then repel the Russians.
NATO hung tough and increased its membership dramatically with the addition of Finland and Sweden and the European Union promised to put Ukraine’s application for membership on a fast track. The Europeans have accepted that it is going to be a cold winter as Russia plays its last energy card as the arms and the money keep flowing in to Ukraine.
So Putin read Biden wrong as well as Zelensky, NATO, Sweden Finland and the EU.
WHAT NOW
Putin is in a royal mess being attacked by the left and the right. It will be a miracle if he survives. Hundreds of thousands have fled the country to dodge the draft. Even in the Russian Duma legislators are appealing for the truth claiming that, "The Russian people aren't stupid". There will be no election to vote him out. There will either be a deal or a coup. His ally XI with whom he was going to change the world order has raised “concerns” and India’s Modi has told him again and again that now is not the time for war.
Nobody knows Putin’s next move not even Putin. The latter blows up pipe lines which he will need, farcically annexes territory to convince those fleeing the country in the tens of thousands to come fight to defend their motherland. Bungles a partial mobilization of Russians causing criticism and protest to come out publicly and for him to apologize.
Biden who is not an alarmist has warned of a nuclear "Armageddon" at highest since the Cuban crisis in 1962.
Putin and Trump are the outcomes for those who seek simplistic solutions to complex problems. Let one man decide everything instead of a messy democracy, “I alone can fix it”. They can also destroy the world
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The American midterm elections have a disproportionate importance for the future of democracy both in America and the world. Biden needs to control the House and Senate and the Trumpian candidates need to be thrashed as well as their “Republican” hangers on. Sadly that is not the way democracy works. Each individual decides what the key issue is. (A large number don't even bother to vote). Fortuitously this time round this coincides with crucial issues such as a woman’s right to control her body, gun control and welfare programs. Others can rate their priorities as inflation that Covid produced or the social issues relating to what can be taught at school, gender identity and immigration.
As for the "Republican" Party they are a disgrace and history will judge them harshly. If democracy dies they will have more than done their fair share to hasten its collapse. Of course they have had more than a little help from their friends on the Trump Supreme Court.
