The imminent demise of Donald J. Trump has been a thing ever since he ventured into a property development in Manhattan in 1971. From the get go Trump sought to be the center of the news cycle both with his oversize personality and outlandish projects while always raising concerns of one sort or another about money transactions. Fifty years later the future of Trump seems to be finally reaching its denouement. As he all but trumpets his third run for the Presidency, the Attorney General has made it quite clear that he will seek to hold anyone who was responsible for the attempt to interrupt the peaceful of transfer of power from one administration to another. For the umpteenth time a Trump weary world look at his projected comeuppance with bored disbelief. The cynicism was shattered with last weeks events surrounding criminal investigations into his behavior hot on the heals of the explosive January 6 House Investigation hearings.
Trump is throwing the dice once again. In the past even if they rolled against him he lived to fight another day. This time it appears to be duck or no dinner. He is either going to be the Forty - Fifth President all over again or a defendant in the dock. This time if he fails there is no hiatus between disasters. Even if it was possible as he suggested, in his sick return to Washington to the faithful, that if he disappeared from the scene they would stop persecuting him, - “a friend told him that he was the greatest persecuted person in American history”. It is just not going to happen.. He has rolled the dice once too much. Trump can reflect back that it has been a great run, but in the words of Sinatra, “It was just one of those things”. Trump to date has believed that if he commits crimes in public he cannot be prosecuted but there had to be a reckoning. He can gain comfort from the fact that “the crazies” agree with him that he is not a “loser”.
Having explained all that, even bearing in mind criminal liability, the big question still remains will Garland prosecute a former President?
WHO IS MERRICK GARLAND?
When Barak Obama nominated Merrick Garland as a Supreme Court Justice in 2016 he did so in the knowledge that there was not a judicial soul who had a negative word to say about him. He was regarded as the epitome of a non prejudicial jurist with carefully thought and researched opinions in his role as Chief Justice of the DC Court of Appeals, the second highest court in the land. He had never ever been reversed by the Supreme Court. The Garland Supreme Court nomination hearings would make it virtually impossible for the Republican controlled Senate not to confirm him. That fact led Mitch McConnell, who in morality is the very opposite of what Garland represents, not to take the slightest chance. He did not allow the nomination to be even put forward and waited a full year to pass. Then the totalitarian hurricane hit. Trump was elected and between the unholy duo of Trump and McConnell they sealed their ignominy by appointing three judges who misled the public as to their judicial philosophy. One of them Amy Barrett, McConnell rushed through in record time just days before a Presidential election as opposed to a year which he said was too close to an election to consider Garland. To put an exclamation point on the high regard of Garland, in this day of partisan extremism, his nomination to Attorney General garnered seventy votes.
As the January 6 House Hearing Committee proceeded with their breathtaking exposes of the coup, Merrick Garland plodded on ahead investigating and charging Trump’s foot soldiers, Frustration burst through all round. The criticism mounted in every circle, all but screaming that the ponderous arcane jurist was not cut out for the chief prosecutorial job. Even Biden was anonymously reported to have muttered frustration.
There was some ambivalence on the issue. Trump was a former President of an opposing political party and all things being equal would win the “Republican” Party nomination for 2024. Prosecuting him could appear more in line with banana Republics than the world’s oldest democracy.
THE DAYS ROLL BY AND THE WORLD CHANGES FOR TRUMP
As the days rolled on 2022 the “Republicans” with a favorable midterm election in the offing did not need a crisis where they would have be forced to take sides on Trump so they did what they have done for five years in relation to the travesty that has made a mockery of their party - nothing!. More significantly Trump, who will never give in, would thwart any candidate that he hadn’t backed to exercise his waning power. Any election wherever and whenever it was held would be about him.
Ford had pardoned Nixon. It cost him his Presidency. Those in prosecution were furious but as the years passed and Nixon blended into a traditionalist post presidency the attitude changed. The late Leon Jaworski the Special Prosecutor in the Watergate probe finally concluded that Ford had been brave in his “To Heal a Nation” effort. However as the mal fides of the Trump regime became broader and deeper the growing resentment towards this precedent became wide spread. Although not legally binding it was all there was in history to lean on. The consensus was that was enough to keep the conservative attorney general busy chasing after Trump’s cannon fodder and leave Trump to the voters and history.
The Hearing Committee, after its chilling expose where Trump was shown to actively spur on the insurrection and the death of his Vice President, released daily videos which were more and more damning. These included illustrating from the original text what Trump had personally crossed out in his speech on January 7 which was supposedly to condemn the insurrection. They also well exploded his lie, that was being perpetuated by his choir in Fox News that he had ten thousand troops on the ready.
The pressure was mounting on the silent Department of Justice. But in a flash the bonsai escalated. Murdoch had already on one day had two of his lesser components of his evil empire, The New York Post and The Wall Street Journal condemn Trump. What followed rocked the existing narrative. During the day Pence and Trump Fox went to Washington, seventeen minutes of Pence was live on Fox and nil on Trump. On that very same day it was leaked that Vice President Pence’s legal council and Chief of Staff had appeared before a Grand Jury. It soon followed that Cassidy Hutchinson was cooperating with the Department of Justice. According to Alyssa Farah Griffin, Trump’s former Communication Secretary other WhiteHouse officials are confabbing with the Department of Justice. To put the cherry on the top the publicity shy Merrick Garland gave a sensational interview with NBC’s Lester Holt claiming that no - one was above the law.
GARLAND’S COMING OUT PARTY
Merrick Garland claimed that the Justice Department investigations into the attempt to hinder the peaceful transfer or power was the most wide ranging in the history. He stated that his investigations were outside the public eye. Holt pressed home the point when Garland indicated that “no one is above the law” - Garland matter of a factly countered that Presidential candidates don’t alter his schedule.
HOLT: ‘The indictment of a former president, and perhaps a candidate for president, would arguably tear the country apart. Is that your concern as you make your decision down the road here, do you have to think about things like that?’.
GARLAND: “We intend to hold everyone, anyone who was criminally responsible for the events surrounding January 6, for any attempt to interfere with the lawful transfer of power from one administration to another. That’s what we do. We don’t pay any attention to other issues like that”.
Garland acknowledged the incredible role that the House Investigating Committee had played. It appeared obvious that both sides have information the other has not. At this stage of the game there is no reason why the House files, which are massive, should not be moved across the street. Arrangements have been made for the first batch.
In retrospect Attorney General Garland with his judicial history is the only one who could have gotten away with such an historic statement. Fox News hardly commented. What would have raised a storm with anyone else has been acknowledged by all as a fact of life.
WHERE TO NOW?
Trump
As matters stand Trump still controls the largest chunk of the “Republican” Party. He is in this fight till the bitter end. It is all about him. It literally is “duck or no dinner”.He knows that if there are more than two candidates in the Republican Primary nothing will stop him getting the plurality of votes. Whether indicted or not he is going to run. He has been counted out time and again and stood up and come back firing. He is not remotely interested in “Republicanism””. In fact no one more than him would like to see Merrick Garland on the Supreme Court at this point in time. He does not give a hoot about abortion, second amendment rights and the environment. (If Cassidy Hutchinson is anything to go by you can put a “f….ing” in front of each of those subjects).
Up to time of going into print the herd of sad sycophantic cynical “Republican” legislators have not deserted him and his collection of Senate candidate losers. Even Pence whom he wanted to string up in the public square talks fondly of the Trump/Pence years. De Santis thinks he can create a line going to the right of Trump…. Of the motley crew that are on the list of possibles. Pompeo, Halley, Christie, Abbott and Uncle Tom Cobbley and all, none of them have publicly condemned him. Even those candidates who are taking on the MAGA elite in the midterms are talking about irregularities in the 2020 election. By the time they wake up it will be too late as already fifty - five percent of their “Party” want another candidate. The penny has dropped at least for Secretary Pompeo who, following a string of other cabinet members, is giving a deposition to the January 6 Committee,….
Trump will just not keep out of the news in the belief that any news is good. His hosting of the Saudi breakaway golf tournament brought heaps of criticism from several quarters including the families of the 9/11 victims who Trump had admitted to that the Saudis were involved. Trump backtracked as he kept ringing the cash register.
There is a cottage industry gathering around the MAGA name raking in the shekels. Peter Navarro a former advisor who is awaiting trial for failing has warned the former President that they are a collection of grifters. In fact Trump is at sixes and sevens. All that he knows is that he has over two hundred million dollars in his own re election account. There is but nothing that will stop him running again.
Trump’s Other Legal Woes
There are two legal investigations well under way conducted by two fearless African American women lead prosecutors. In Georgia the Fulton County District Attorney, Fanni Willis, has a grand jury investigation which has had top Georgia Republicans including the current Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger testify. Both of whom refused under massive pressure to “find” eleven thousand seven hundred and eighty votes which was, “One more than we need”. She is also investigating what the Trump operation admitted was a “fake elector scheme”. Ms. Willis has subpoenaed Trump allies such as Rudi Giuliani and Lindsey Graham, Trump’s chief side kick de luxe. Where this goes is not nearly as important as it was a few days ago now that Garland is deep into the prosecution.
The New York Attorney General Letitia James has remained steadfast in smashing the Trump Organization tax embezzlement and fraudulent valuations of his properties depending on whether to pay taxes or obtaining loans. She has won challenge after challenge and Trump and his children have to sit for depositions which were postponed to mourn for the death of Trump’s first wife Ivana. This can hit in the arena he cares for most - his pocket. New York generally is where he had to pay a twenty - five million dollar fine for his “fake” University and close down his Charitable Foundation and pay a two million dollar penalty.
Then there is the usual business as usual for Trump as has been for the more than four thousand five hundred litigations that he has been party too these last fifty years making a total mockery of the US justice system. So besides the rape defamation, the innumerable civil suits some are involving police officers that were victims of the January 6 insurrection form part of his unenviable portfolio. Then his new Public Company in the making, “Truth Social” is in front of a Grand Jury. As they used to say at the old vaudeville fairs - “Every shot a coconut”.
The House January 6 Hearing Committee
Ending their first series of tightly packed made for TV hearings the January 6 Committee are producing a daily diet of revelations as they continue full tilt with their in camera depositions and fact finding. Trump’s speech on January 7 with all its omissions, under threat of being chucked out by his cabinet, was annotated by comments from Ivanka, Jared and the laconic irritated Pat Cippolone whose claims of executive privilege were tolerated as he provided crucial evidence.
Then the Trump lie, which he repeated and was repeated on Fox friend Hannity’s nightly show no less than forty three times, that he commissioned ten thousand National Guards for January 6 but it was Speaker Pelosi’s fault that weren’t deployed, was bust wide open when his Defense Secretary’s closed deposition was released for the world to see that he did no such thing. The revelation was all that sensational because Secretary Miller, supposedly a member of “Team Normal” lied on Fox News that Trump had done so!
The elimination of Secret Service text messages and other textsis yet another focus that is being scrutinized. The Trump head of the Department of Investigations is being accused of a cover up.
Apparently after Cassidy’s testimony the leads and offers just poured in. So inundated was the Committee that they promised another mini series in September. Before the “GOP” cry fowl that it will impinge on the midterms they need reminding how they unashamedly smeared Hillary Clinton with bogus investigations of her e mail server and the Benghazi Ambassador raid.
The fact that the Committee are now cooperating with the Department of Justice instead of wailing at the latter’s alleged inaction adds to their enormous gravitas.
Merrick Garland Now
So far the Department of Justice is batting on thousand convictions, admittedly mainly on the misled cavalry of Trump’s first battalion, “fighting like hell”. However the charges have included seditious conspiracy which are notoriously difficult to prove. The professionalism exhibited as well as attention to detail is spectacular. The polished non political prosecution of Steve Bannon for contempt of the subpoena of the Hearing Committee was a clinical execution of justice. Garland has acted already towards Jeffery Clark who Trump wanted to install as Head of Justice and John Eastman, Trump’s outside lawyer, who dreamed the scheme for Mike Pence to override eighty - one million voters. Rudi Giuliani the lead outside lawyer has already been raided. Garland has the cooperation of Kenneth Klowouski, the lawyer Clark suddenly appointed to draft the bogus letter that Clark wanted to send out to Secretaries of State claiming that the Department of Justice had found corruption in their elections. Klowouski was recommended by John Eastman. There are also links to Justice Clarence Thomas’s wife Ginni and Charles Koch one of the major sources of dark money.
The fact that Merrick Garland has applied his legal judicial mind in prosecuting should send shivers down anyone who is in his sights. He would never have gone public the same day that Pence’s “normal team” had delivered evidence in the Grand Jury investigation if he wasn’t well into his probe of the whole conspiracy. The next day Cassidy Hutchinson’s cooperation was leaked with all the others.
Garland has a cast of characters that could turn on Trump from Eastman, Giuliani, Powell and the other teams of lawyers that face long terms of imprisonment. There are persistent rumors that Mark Meadows Trump’s Chief of Staff is cooperating with Garland. That latter fact would make the decision not to prosecute him for contempt of his subpoena to the January 6 Committee.
McConnell and McCarthy are relying on the disaster that is Biden, with nine percent inflation, to win the midterms.
BIden and the Democrats
Jay H. Ell blogged on the Democrats chances on July 24 and there has been major movement since then. Biden’s approval figures are irrelevant at this stage. If push comes to shove he won’t stand In 2024.
The last move by Manchin who is backing Biden’s Build Back Better agenda in the form of an inflation buster, to coin a phrase, is a game changer. This involves tax of the rich and a minimum of fifteen percent of tax on companies. In addition the bill includes no increasing insurance payments for Obamacare and a provision that will ensure that drug prices will not increase as a Bush provision that Medicare cannot bid for prices from pharmaceutical companies is being axed. There is a massive climate control component in the seven hundred billion Bill. Biden and Schumer’s patience with Manchin has paid off. So the angry youth will think schlepping out to vote is worth it.
Biden has successfully navigated the Ukrainian crisis without involving America in the third world war. Besides Zelensky turning around the ground war, the coalition is holding, the Russian economy is in a state of collapse. He also stood firm in his conversation with China’s Xi Ping.
The Democrats still have the abortion issues and guns from the activist Supreme Court. With the daily disasters climate change is finally gaining traction. Jay H. Ell has to believe that not only will they win the Senate in November the House may now just be that little more in play.
The Republicans 2022 and 2024
The Republican leadership response has been to stick with Trump. They have done nothing to extricate themselves from the chaos that is unfolding before their eyes. They are standing around waiting for Godot. Every candidate is going to be faced with whether they support an indicted leader or not. As matters stand Trump will still will the nomination in 2024. If he does Jay H. Ell believes that Liz Cheney will stand as an Independent to give the fifteen percent or so Reagan Republicans a conscience vote so as to allow whoever is the Democratic nominee to win, or more to the point Trump lose
If unemployment stays at three and a half percent and wages increase McConnell will have a tough time of it. The line is now that Biden is senile and should be removed via the Twentieth Amendment. They are obviously projecting the fact that Trump’s Cabinet was discussing the Amendment as Fox’s Hannity had warned and the January 6 Committee has heard evidence thereof.
THE END OF THE DAY
It is finally getting near the end of the day…. A day without dinner for Trump who will go down saying he won his third election a row.
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