America itself and the world in general are staring at an existential threat to democracy. Orchestrating the peril are the former President of America, Donald Trump and the current life long President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, who go back a long way. Standing against them both is Joseph Biden who is not receiving adequate support from those who purport to hold democratic values. As the situation stands there are not going to be any fairy tale endings. Gigantic forces are aligned on both sides of the divide - dictators manifesting sociopathic behavior on the one side and democratic values on the other. The battlegrounds are in Eastern Europe where Putin sought to conquer and annex Ukraine and in America where Trump is orchestrating an ongoing coup to remain in. power
One fact is for certain if both Trump and Putin succeed the world order will change dramatically. They are allies and both see totalitarian dictatorships as the answer to government. The crisis is complicated by the Covid pandemic and all its sequelae, the fact that Europe is dependent on Putin’s energy supplies, and rampant worldwide inflation. In Putin’s Russia the pain has been exacerbated by the sanctions placed on its economy and the withdrawal of Western business activity in the country. In many ways this is a game of wills between two individuals against the forces of democracy. The problem is that Putin has behind him the full authority of Government and Trump the backing of one of the two political parties in America. Both individuals will go to the brink exuding confidence and power even though it is touch and go as to whether they can succeed.
Both Trump and Putin face challenges on their home turfs and any alteration of the status quo will dramatically change the political destiny of their respective countries.
TRUMP RUSSIA AND PUTIN
Lest there be any doubt as to whether Putin and Trump are on the same page their past history merges into the modern day Armageddon. Trump on the campaign trail in 2016 claimed it would be a good to have relations with Russia. At his nomination jamboree his campaign management removed all policies averse to Russia from the party platform. His campaign team as well as his Cabinet was littered with those that had communicated with Soviet operatives. It was conclusively resolved that Russia intervened on his behalf in the 2016 election and several of his staff and campaign were found guilty in courts as a result of their contacts with the Russian establishment. Trump sensationally sided publicly with Putin rather than his whole intelligence service when the former denied involvement in his campaign. What the subsequent investigation into the Russian involvement in the 2016 Presidential campaign did not prove was that the Trump campaign, in spite of their contacts with the Russian operatives, did not “collude” in the planning and execution of the intervention. A fact that allowed Attorney General Barr to whitewash the devastating detailed, longwinded report. The investigation revealed detailed endless contacts and meetings between Trump and Russian operatives.
Trump shares Putin’s views on the Western alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, (NATO), and the European Union, (EU). The two organizations included several member countries of the defunct Union of Soviet Socialist Republics much to the chagrin of Putin. According to cabinet members, Trump, who in public criticized NATO, had to be held back from withdrawing America from NATO. His disdain for the EU was similarly on display. There was no rationale for these decisions other than the desire to ally with Putin.
Then Trump defied the legislation passed by Congress to forward military aid to Ukraine’s Zelensky who was defending his country against ongoing attacks by Putin. Trump first needed a “favor” to be able to smear Biden. The Forty - Fifth President refused to put the stamp of approval of America’s relationship on Ukraine, Putin’s enemy. The whole sickening saga which involved the firing of ambassadors and aides culminated in his first impeachment which the McConnell “Republican” lead Senate blocked and enabled and empowered Trump even more.
Just in case anyone might have believed that former President Trump had dropped his bonds with the Russian dictator he praised his "genius" to the skies on the announcement of Putin’s declaration of two independent Republics in Eastern Ukraine. Finally, Trump has not intervened when Putin now claims that this Ukrainian invasion is a war against America and the West. Presumably he backs the war against an America that he is not President.
BIDEN, NATO, EU AND UKRAINE’S ZELENSKY
Firstly, Biden with bipartisan support immediately promised weapons to Zelensky who grabbed the admiration of the world with his singleminded defiance and bravery. Most significantly Biden united a demoralized NATO all of whom, to a lesser or greater extent, have made meaningful contributions to the Ukrainian struggle. His skill which is largely covert, together with his resolve, saw NATO members, like Germany become more involved and precipitated the desire of Sweden and Finland to seek membership. The EU which had been hit by Brexit and certain members defying its human rights policy also delivered by backing Zelensky to the hilt and even putting his application to join the EU on a fast track.
Biden had to play his hand shrewdly so as not to appear to provoke a third world war. This he did by calibrating the weaponry he provided to Ukraine - which was enough, combined with Ukrainian determination to thwart Putin’s Plan A to take over the country in a week. Now he is giving them long range weaponry to take on the assault in the East.
THE CHALLENGES TO TRUMP
Putin and Trump are ad idem as to how this situation is to be played in the West - blame Biden. The Russian dictator is blaming Biden for his “insane” sanctions on Russia for the worldwide inflation. Trump who held a meeting last week where Senator Tim Scott, a projected running mate in 2024, claimed that he could live with Trump’s nasty tweets if gas would be two dollars a gallon!
However as the January 6 House Investigation Committee elaborate the conspiracy which Trump is front and center of, it becomes less and less likely that he will be President in 2024. While he still is the most powerful force within the “Republican” Party his grip is gradually weakening in the country. But it does not require extra sensory perception to know that he is not going to relinquish power without a fight and that battle may rip the “Republican Party” apart. Generally speaking the “Republicans” are running in the midterms on the mantra that the Presidency was stolen from Trump, Biden’s “failures”, and no policy at all if McConnell gets his way.
As each day passes with the January 6 televised hearings it becomes more and more impossible for Trump to retain a majority of the electorate. There is despondency that his core religiously believes him and argue that the entire Republican witness list are sell outs and co conspirators with the Democrats to "The Steal”. If just five percent of the Republicans or Independents who voted for him previously desert him he is a goner. In addition as each day passes it becomes harder and harder for Attorney General, Merrick Garland, not to prosecute..
A barometer of the impact of the hearings can be gleaned by the actions of Fox News. Initially they refused to cover the hearings live. After the mind blowing opening salvo they recanted and are now doing wall to wall coverage. They are kinda ignoring them editorially but there is no doubt as to their assessment of the impact on the man they helped to make the forty - fifth President. Brit Hume one of the few correspondents left in that channel with some independence stated, “… that a great many Republicans would like Trump to go away… and the Republicans might end up grateful for the damage to former President Donald Trump …because I think that a great many Republicans think they can’t win with Trump at the head of the ticket again".
WHERE AMERICA IS NOW WITH TRUMP AND TRUMPISM
Notwithstanding the above Trump still controls the base of the Party. As the “Republicans” are more interested in power than their country half of their nominees thus far claim to believe in the “Big Lie” that Trump won the election. The obvious conclusion is that Trump may be axed but Trumpism will live on. A collection of baloney, conspiracy theories, racist ideology, vaccine nihilism, retrogressive social theories, book banning and revisionist history is the basis of the ideology and there are plenty of wannabes ready to step into his shoes. Interestingly enough, in the cacophony of the midterms, the Ukraine and Russia issue is very low down on the priority list. It is a toss up whether the new graduates of the midterms of 2022 will follow the current legislative bipartisan support of Ukraine. Ironically that for Trump is a top issue although he has shut up about the subject focussing on the litmus test for his support - swearing blind that the election was stolen from him.
And Trump knows better than anyone else that he has been written off time and again to emerge triumphant. If he is not caught up in some legal encumbrances he would likely win the Republican Primary to the dismay, according to Brit Hume, of a “great number of “Republicans” and the delight of Joseph Biden. Jay H. Ell wonders if any Trumpist could win the Presidency cause they would have to say they support "The Big Lie” otherwise Trump’s base would stay at home. The Texas Republican Convention has accepted “The Big Lie” as policy! The “Republican” mainstream want to run on inflation but Trump won’t let them. Trump wannabes, particularly Rick DeSantis, are gaining on him and this whole saga still has to play out.
The thousand pound elephant in the room is how will an indictment of Trump impact the political landscape ?
STATUS OF UKRAINIAN WAR AND WHERE THE “FREE” WORLD IS AT
Russia are having more success than early on but are still sustaining losses way and above experienced by the allies in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and multiples greater than the Russians did in the Afghanistan war in the nineties. Putin is in a very tight corner. Although he is slowly making ground in the East he has not captured a big town while the body bags are returning to Russia in a steady stream. Putin’s problems are the mothers who are demanding information about their sons, diminishing arms and no troop replacements. However his war is being financed by the rising price of energy. If he can hang in there he has two big bargaining chips - his energy and the world’s food supply as he can without blinking watch the billions starve if he doesn’t get his own way. To a large extent Putin is dependent on the West backing off and pressuring Zelensky to settle
Media attention is waning on Zelensky’s every move - January 6 hearings are now where it is at. Macron has indicated that he is not for humiliating Russia contradicting Biden who previously stated that Russia has to be seen to have lost. Kissinger has thrown in his five cents worth and told Zelensky, to the latter’s anger, to look to settle. However all the American top military brass believe that Ukraine could ultimately win if given the endless supply of appropriate weaponry needed. They feel Russia is in a very weak position. Former Admiral Stavridis has suggested that US battleships escort wheat transport from Odessa.
So Biden in addition to keeping the weapons flowing has to keep the coalition together so that Ukraine can emerge the “winner” with at least Russia having gained no new territory.
BIDEN
The media claim they don’t hear enough from Biden. There are two reasons for that - they are still covering Trump night and day and Biden isn’t a populist megalomaniac determined to dominate each news cycle. He is a public servant. The media would do well to explain that and also what is doing, has done and wants to do which he enacts largely behind the scenes. The crisis to democracy and the threatened world war precipitated by Russia has skillfully been managed by Biden and needs telling in the media.
Biden tells as it is. He cannot do anything more than he is doing about inflation which is the one point Republicans who aren’t running on the “Big Lie” are making central to their midterm campaigns. Biden is obviously going to stick with his values plan versus the cult dictatorship offered by the “Republicans”. Democracy is worth defending at home and abroad. Rights such as a woman’s right to choice and society’s right to gun control cannot be banished by the minority. America is a country for all its peoples that is what its Constitution aspires to - not just straight white men.
It is really amazing that this knowledgeable empathetic and principled leader is belittled because he is not a populist. This at a time when the country and the world need a reset to Western values. The moan is that he is “old”. For heaven’s sake would they rather have a younger Trump or whoever?
AT THE END OF THE DAY
With two major threats to democracy playing out on the world and home scene the results are still pending.
Donald Trump is behaving more and more like a cornered rat. Nevertheless, “The Republicans” have allowed him to take over their party at a great risk to America and the world. The good news is that only a miracle stands between him and criminal indictment.
It remains to be seen whether Biden’s mantra that “who we are” is more endearing than a temporary bout of inflation brought about largely by issues not under his control and/or the call to xenophobia and dictatorship by Trump and Trumpism.
While the Trump insurgency and the Putin invasion may appear world’s apart they are linked through their common objective to destroy democracy and the relationship between the two autocrats.
While there is blame to share a plenty, Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy and the cowardly “Republicans” are directly responsible for enabling Trump at the expense of their party and country for their love of power.
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