ABORTION, THE SUPREME COURT, TRUMP, MCCONNELL AND THE MIDTERMS.

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The predictable Supreme Court reversal of abortion rights in the USA maneuvered by Trump/McConnell by the appointment of anti abortion judges is now all but a done deal. A leak of a draft  supported by five Supreme Court judges has shocked the country not only because of the adoption of sweeping restrictions which include no termination for rape, incest, fetal abnormalities and a women’s health but because the legal “reasoning” puts other privacy rights under threat.

 The issue is further complicated politically by the repeated playing on TV of the five judges supposed positions on the law known as Roe v Wade. It is fair to comment that they led everyone to believe that they wouldn’t tinker with the fifty year old right which has been reaffirmed time and again. The nonplussed Trump ensured his base that his three appointees would eliminate a woman’s right to choose and they appear to have delivered. McConnell literally stole two nominations from the Democrats by manipulating when the Senate would take up a nomination. So the pair, Trump and McConnell, who literally hate each others guts effected a “Republican”coup of the third supposedly equal branch of Government. 

The leak of the draft opinion which argued that a women’s right to privacy and control of her own body was unconstitutional ignored a half a century of precedents. The fear is that if this  argument holds then the right to contraception, LGBT equality, marriage between same sex  and mixed marriage and even the rights of individuals in criminal matters can be negated. Justice Alito who authored the draft states that this opinion has nothing to do with any other law. But who can believe him?

Is everyone aware that the Constitution states that with regard to the Supreme Court it “Permits Congress to organize it”? In fact the opposite has occurred repeatedly as the Court has reversed statutes involving voting rights and legislation limiting the amount of money spent on elections. Both actions have been promoted mainly by the Republican Party. Conversely they have refused even to take up cases of gerrymandering constitutional districts which have vastly favored the Republicans,

 This blog will concentrate more on the midterm elections and the role this decision may play in its outcome. The blogs, “Abortion, The Federalist Society and The Politicalization of The Supreme Court, December 6, 2021 and “Has The Supreme Court Become the USA’S Political Force?”, January 17, 2022  can be found by delving into the archives on the opening page of the website  and cover the abortion issues and the Supreme Court’s politicalization. 

One conclusion is for certain the Supreme Court is increasingly being perceived as a political arm of the Republican Party whether Chief Justice Roberts likes it or not, 

MIDTERM ELECTIONS IN AMERICA AND MCCONNELL

Historically midterms elections in the United States have been won by the party that is not in the WhiteHouse. One third of the Senate seats are up for election, all the House Constituencies and thirty four of the fifty Governorships. The percentage voter turn out is invariably below fifty percent. The rationale for the predicted outcome is that the President has not had the time to deliver on all of his promises and the election is a referendum on him. And that is exactly how the Machiavellian Mitch McConnell would like to play it. 

McConnell has stated that he is not putting any proposals forward he is running on the disaster that the Biden Presidency has been. He can point to the economy that although has resulted in the lowest unemployment percentage in decades, three and a half percent, and a marked increase in wages, is suffering from the worst inflation in memory. It is all perception and the two factors that influence voters are the price of gas and food. They are not persuaded that the supply chain, China’s lockdown, the Ukrainian war and the impact Covid had on production or even that they are employed and earning more. The upshot is that two thirds of those polled believe that Biden is making a hash of the economy. McConnell would add to that the catastrophe of the exit from Afghanistan and whether Biden has done too little or too much in Ukraine. McConnell will add that Biden has hindered fossil fuel production in the USA because of his misguided attention to climate change. 

However McConnell faces several challenges as to what the Republican focus should be in these elections. The bohaai has forced him to join in one other issue - abortion and even float the possibility of a national ban which is beyond just allowing each state to decide whether to ban it or not as the reversing of Roe would do.  

ALTERNATIVE REPUBLICAN NARRATIVES FOR FIGHTING THE MIDTERMS

The nearest to home that McConnell has opposition is the Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Senator Scott, who has allocated a large chunk of the re election money to his good self. He also has a tax plan which will impact the poor and legislation to end Social Security and Medicare. Needless to say McConnell with a number of colleagues have gone ballistic but Scott is in a powerful position and presumably the ads that he will produce will reflect his views.

Then there are those that want to run on cultural issues, chief among them is the Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He is at present the only serious challenger to Donald Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024. He is the leader against compulsory vaccination, wearing masks, fighting Critical Race Theory, negating LGBT rights and of course axing abortion rights. He was in the national news again when he initiated punitive moves against Disney for voicing objection to his directive on banning classroom instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity. He is heavily in favor of removing school books that might create the slightest guilt in white children about the country’s discriminatory past. 

The king of the war on abortion is Governor Greg Abbott of Texas who put into place a law banning abortion after six weeks which was to be policed by vigilantes who could sue perpetrators for ten thousand dollars.The Supreme Court refused to put a restraining order on the grotesque unconstitutional law while it went through the court system. Then there are about thirteen states ready to ban all abortions once the Supreme Court axes Roe.

There is little doubt that McConnell doesn’t want culture issues to be the focus of the Republican campaign in November, although he was a lynchpin in piloting the Supreme Court decision. Another opponent of McConnell’s approach who wants the discussion around him and not Biden is Donald J Trump.

DONALD J TRUMP STILL THE DOMINANT REPUBLICAN FIGURE IN 2022

The Forty - Fifth President Donald J. Trump is still the most powerful figure in the Republican Party and the kingmaker. He delivered on what the largest section of the base, the Evangelicals, wanted - judges who would axe Roe. He is not remotely interested in the Republican Party per se. As far as he is concerned it is the Trump Old Party. He is all about culture. Make America Great Again is a racist cultural movement. 

The overwhelming majority of candidates in the Primaries are fighting for his endorsement. He is on the path of destruction similar to that which won the Democrats the Senate in 2020 by stating that Republicans should not participate in the general election if his nominee in the Primaries get defeated. 

So Trump is making the midterms about himself. The central policy his candidates must embrace is that they agree that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Equally important are those he is opposing namely anyone who voted for impeachment,  those who voted for ratification of Biden and those who voted for the bipartisan Biden bill on infrastructure, He has interposed himself in over forty Congressional races, at least seven Senate seats and endless State elections particularly and significantly in Georgia. He is going for broke. If a number of his key endorsements fail he is weakened. Even if he is successful his way out nominees cannot afford to be beaten in the midterms cause that could relegate him to being ia non starter in 2024. Several of his cabinet and administration have written tell all books which haven't moved the electorate a jot. Some potential challengers in 2024 have emerged all of who have subtly differentiated themselves from him. 

To sum up Trump is still the dominant figure in the Republican Party but his support has dwindled. He can rely on the Evangelicals because they won’t forget who won them their fifty year battle to ban abortion. Where there are only a few candidates in the primary races he is not likely to make a difference in the outcome unless he is supporting the party nominee. In the Ohio Primary where there was a large field his candidate won with just over thirty percent. He made the difference.

But whichever way you look at it he is not interested in putting up the best candidate to beat the Democrats. He only wants sycophants or to take revenge on those who have thwarted him. He has to be a massive disrupter and his position has been solidified by delivering the votes to rid the country of abortion. In short he will not help McConnell to focus on Biden when he is the savior and he should be what it is all about - not Biden. 

 ABORTION RIGHTS AND THE MIDTERMS

The most recent poll on priorities of the electorate show the economy is number one on the list of half the participants. The poll was registered prior to the leak of the draft majority opinion on Roe. If abortion is to become an issue it will take some time to register. Meanwhile there have been daily increasing protests across the country. The movement for pro choice is colossal. One in four women in the USA have had an abortion by the age of forty - five. The fact that the legal argument is that the abortion is not enshrined in the constitution and the privacy implicit in the document has been rejected means that the draft opinion increases the support groups against the potential decision. The FBI have warned that right wing groups are organizing to attack the protestors and the Supreme Court has been surrounded with a protective fence. 

No Republican legislator wants to talk about the “victory” that they have ostensibly being fighting for. (The dog has caught up with the cart and doesn't know what to do). McConnell maintains it is not the contents of the leak that should be the subject of discourse but rather the disgraceful and unprecedented leak itself. The polling on this issue is disastrous for the Republicans. Close on seventy percent of the country want Roe to stand. That includes seventy percent of the Independents. Only eight percent of Texans, ground zero for “ProLife”, agree that abortion should not be banned for rape and incest. For the first time in an election early polling shows that abortion is a far more mobilizing issue for the Democrats than the Republicans. It also effects the key voting groups more profoundly - the youth, women in the suburbs and minorities - all of whom the Democrats fear wouldn’t pitch up to vote or in the case of suburban women would pull the lever for the Republicans. 

So bearing in mind this spontaneous upswell against the potential legislation Biden has joined in and is already making it a campaign issue, The Democrats are preparing to make the subject a centerpiece of their narrative. They are forcing a vote in both chambers to retain Roe. They know full well that they will never get sixty votes in the Senate but want all the legislators on record. It is Impossible to gauge the impact of the controversy  on the midterms at this early stage but one fact is for sure it has changed the narrative.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Sooner or later the power of the nine unelected Judges have on the laws of America have to be revisited. Nowhere in the Constitution, that the “Constitutionalists” on the Supreme Court refer to, is the Court given the right to become the final arbiter on anything and everything including matters of privacy and legislation that has been passed by Congress. Another fact that disturbs Jay H. Ell is that the Court is not satisfied in being the arbiter of public morality they make observations and law on their perceptions in specialized areas. For example in the draft the five Judges make definitive findings on when a fetus can feel pain. The scientist whose work is quoted claims that it is a total misrepresentation of his findings. Then they liberally quote a seventeenth century English legislator in support who also supported burning witches, marital rape and the death penalty of fourteen year old children. 

The leaking of the Court’s draft position on abortion rights has ensured that this issue is going to be front and central in the forthcoming midterm elections. This will further muddy the efforts of Mitch McConnell to focus only on Biden’s Presidency. As matters stand at the moment he already faced opposition from the Chairman of the Republican Senate Committee who insisted that the Republicans have a policy platform, the culture warriors and Donald Trump who is ensuring that it be about the fact that he won the 2020 Presidential election.

Nevertheless the Republicans are poised to take over the House and have a fifty fifty chance of regaining the Senate - “It is the economy stupid”. But there are still six months to go and the future aint what it used to be just one short week ago. 

The Democrats need to get their act together. They need to carefully craft a bill on choice and all privacy issues. They need to take State elections far more seriously. They need not be frightened by cultural issues. Biden won the Presidency when Trump had a strong economy by claiming, “That is not who we are”.