Ukraine and Russia are involved in a stark battle which has far reaching ramifications for the geopolitical landscape of Europe and through NATO, the world. There is little doubt that should Ukraine lose then there will be a domino effect of Russian intervention on the surrounding countries comprising mostly of the former USSR and the Nordic nations. The unprovoked war was ostensibly only about liberating Ukraine from the neo Nazis that were in power so that it could once again part of Russia. However more broadly speaking it was a war against the democratic West and specifically against the USA. For the moment the Russian premier has a far limited objective. From expecting to have a victory parade in Kiev, (his forces were provided with parade uniforms), he just wants any conquest however small to show off and justify his crusade at the annual May 9 Victory Parade in Moscow, To ensure this he has amassed an army of sixteen battalions in the South East having been humiliated in the North West from where his army beat a retreat.
It is now common cause that Putin, in his “Special Military Operation”, hopelessly misread the military and geopolitical outcomes as well as stimulating a world wide resurgence in the concept of democracy. The Ukraine war which is barely two months old has seen a reshuffling of the world order that is simultaneously taking place with wide spread inflation and on ongoing pandemic which is exacerbating the downward drift of economies. While the battle in Europe is between democracy and autocracy, several governments are facing revolts which appear to be more related to economic pressures and nationalism rather than the process of government itself. Nevertheless the central historical transformative event in 2022 is Putin’s unashamed naked brutal aggression and to a large extent the outcome is dependent on his subsequent behavior and whether the world will continue to cower to the bullying autocratic Putin or take the lead from Ukraine’s democratic Zelensky and supply him with the weapons which he so urgently needs.
WHERE WE ARE NOW IN UKRAINE - FROM PUTIN’S WORLD
There are three sources to help ascertain as to where the Russian President is at: reports from leaders who visit him; what he says and what he does. His unequivocal message to visiting world leaders is that he is winning the contest. He expresses the belief that this “Special Military Operation” was crucial to Russia’s security. According to the Austrian President, who has made two sojourns to Moscow to make Putin aware of the extent pf the atrocities that were being perpetrated by his military, Putin was not fuzzed at all by the reality on the ground. There was no indication that the war crimes revealed to him were not part and parcel of his policy or at the very least he couldn’t care less.
To the Russian citizenry Putin has repeatedly stuck to his rationale for his “‘Special Military Operation”, - the Ukrainians are Nazis and are committing genocide on Russian speakers and NATO and Europe lead by the big “bogeyman” the USA are threatening to overrun Russia. He even held a rally ala his soul mate Donald Trump where the papered audience had to listen to the spiel live. Sadly due to technical difficulties his mike went dead so they had to hear the speech on TV that night. It was no loss because the whole show was meant for TV anyway. His repressive legislation against any opposition is evidence enough of his underlying fear that large sections of the population are not buying the humbug. Just in case they might be, he closed down all opposition media.
Putin was threatening the forces aligned against him and if his rhetoric was anything to go by things weren’t going so well. He warned the USA to stop arming the Ukrainians otherwise there might be “unpredictable” consequences. As one of his warnings earlier on was that he might use limited nuclear weapons it came as no surprise when the “unpredicted” consequences that he threatened Finland and Sweden with, was to put nuclear weapons on their borders if they joined NATO. All this bluster followed after he withdrew from his abortive attempt to take Kiev
His actions further confirmed that the “operation" thus far had been a disaster. He reportedly fired a hundred bureaucrats working in the Intelligence Services - someone had to be blamed for not telling him the obvious. A number of his inner circle were put under house arrest and his highly popular Defense Minister is no longer to be found at his side. He brought out of mothballs retired General Alexsandr Dvomikov, who was last seen in action in 2016, to conduct his South Eastern campaign where the chances of success were much higher. Alexsandr had gained many of his honors for his genocidal conduct of the Syrian war and had gained the reputation of being "The Butcher”. Notwithstanding Putin’s confidence in him it was still rather patriotic to step in as already eight Russian generals together with the twenty- thousand soldiers had succumbed in the battle to save Russia from the Nazi Ukrainians. He also made his glorious entry just as the pride of the Russian naval force was blown out of the waters. He would oversea the victory as the armed forces finally overcome Mariupol after a two months siege and then presumably march onto Odessa.
The South Eastern Dombas campaign has now become the real fight and the Russian people are being dutifully asked to forget what had happened before. Accompanying the new thrust was sporadic bombing of the rest of Ukraine in case they believed just because the enemy had retreated Putin had had lost the North West. So far Russian have not as yet shown any proclivity to fight on the ground, it has been all missiles and bombs. So it remains to be seen whether Alexsandr can convince them to fight hand to hand.
The big advantage of this phase is that Vladimir can use even a triumph over the rubbled Mariupol which will give him a thin land connection to Crimea and declare victory on May 9 and suddenly become serious about peace negotiations.
RESPONSE TO PUTIN’S WORLD
Nowhere were Putin’s miscalculations more glaring than the world response to his unprovoked land grab. While the UNO condemnations and expulsions were almost unprecedented it was the coalition of European and NATO support with their vast material aid that hit Putin the hardest. NATO which he hates with a passion, which was on life support following four years of Trump, become unified in record time. The latest answer to his threats to Finland and Sweden have been ignored as both countries prepare to submit requests for admission at NATO’S June meeting. Both countries place no significance as to Putin’s statements or threats. The implicit interpretation is Putin will do what he likes regardless of what he says.
The EU also emerged united. Germany, who for seventy five years as a hang over from their twentieth century warmongering had spent virtually nothing on defense, dramatically increased their expenditure to two percent of their GDP and also promised the Ukrainians weapons. The Swiss forsook their neutral stand and openly sided with Zelensky. Turkey who would be considered an ally to Russia was promoting peace talks and it was the Turkish drones that were highly lethal against Russian tanks. The former USSR Baltic states were allies looking after refugees giving what weapons they could and facilitating the transfer of weapons and humanitarian aid across the wide border with Ukraine. The EU itself invited Ukraine to apply for membership and gave one billion and three hundred million dollars in aid.
The entity that Putin hates with an even greater fervor than NATO is the leader of NATO itself the USA, which brought together the UNO, NATO and EU coalitions. The total aid allocated to Ukraine by Biden’s government exceeds sixteen billion dollars. Biden set limits on the weaponry he was initially prepared to provide Ukraine either believing where Russia’s red line on nuclear weapons was or having intelligence to that effect. Biden’s latest list of armory, however, includes long range weapons that require specialized training to operate. In the teeth of Putin’s warning that America should cut out its military support for Ukraine or face “unpredictable” consequences, Biden is providing training on how to use Howitzers. He had already taken a tough line within his own self made parameters warning Putin that an attack on an inch of a NATO country would bring the combined forces, (two million), on Putin’s head and in the interim had called him a “Butcher” and his attack “genocide”.
China may well be feeding Russian propaganda within China but there has been no recorded additional aid to Putin. Whatever Xi’s original intentions may have been they have to be blown away by the Covid resurgence in China. Shanghai with twenty five million citizens is in complete lockdown provoking rare protests. According to a CNN report up to four hundred million Chinese are under some sort of Covid restrictions. China’s policy on containment of the virus is obviously not effective and Xi has to be preoccupied with the health, political and economic fall out of his latest crisis. In any case on the international scene Xi has hardly been helpful to his closest soulmate Vlad. India have not halted trade with Russia but Modi recently had a protracted meeting with Biden. He has to see that he cannot continue to play both sides to the middle in the current conflagration. He also has been pressured by Boris Johnson who from early on has been providing Zelensky with offensive type weapons. Finally there is Orban of Hungary who also is a fat lot of use to Putin. Orban has not risked his NATO or EU membership to cement his friendship with the Russian Premier who incidentally like Trump, has claimed credit for Orban’s recent electoral victory.
Without going into too much more detail Putin has not divided NATO which together with the EU are strengthened as a result of his attack. But the goalposts have been moved on that objective as well, as Lavrov, his Foreign Minister has explained - the only support they need is from the Russian people.
PUTIN’S SUPPORT IN RUSSIA
According to opinion polls Putin has overwhelming approval ratings but opinion polls in a totalitarian regime are meaningless. Also the draconian punishments for the slightest challenges to Putin’s narrative make the fact that there have been any protests at all, noteworthy. The mere naming of the “Special Operation” as an invasion or a war is subject to a fifteen year prison sentence. Nevertheless close on twenty thousand have been arrested. The highly qualified have left the country in droves - an estimated two hundred and twenty thousand while within the country art, culture and even science has come to a halt. There were hundreds of signatories to a letter to Putin making clear their attitude on the Ukrainian venture. The massive new art museum is almost empty as artists have insisted that their works be removed. However this is the minority what about the masses?
There are a number of personages whose knowledge of the Russian electorate is more intimate and who can speak with authority as to how the Russians feel. There are two opposition leaders both of whom have been poisoned by Putin’s thugs. Both have voluntarily returned to Russia to face immediate arrest and imprisonment by the corrupt Justice system. Alexel Navalny who had six million YouTube subscribers has laid open wide the corruption of the Russian Premier and his oligarchs. He currently is serving a nine year plus sentence on trumped up charges. He has attempted to run for President on a number of occasions but has been effectively barred by guess who. While Navalny is the undisputed Russian opposition leader who has spurred on protests from prison another twice poisoned dissident, Kara Murza, has hit the headlines also returning from an oversea visit to be promptly arrested. Both these men are of the firm opinion that the majority of Russians want to be shot of Putin and it’s just a question of time before he is ousted one way or another.
There is yet another prominent Russian observer William Browder who corroborates Navalny and Murk’s Russian worldview. In fact Browder met with Murk prior to his return to Russia begging him not to go back as those who had poisoned him twice would imprison him. Browder’s Heritage Fund invested heavily in Russia and in 1997 was the best performing fund in the world. His commercial activism led to the inevitable banning from Russia and the seizing of his assets. His lawyer Sergei Magnitzky was arrested and died in prison. Browder then canvassed legislative bodies to pass an act which would pursue Human Rights violators. The subsequent legislation was termed the Magnitzky Act. The latter was a prime objective for removal by the Soviet operatives in their attempt to have Donald Trump elected in 2016. The reason for this spiel on Browder is to establish his credentials for understanding the current Russian electorate.
Browder has remained in constant contact with those opposing the Russian regime and not only does he maintain that the Russians despise their dictator, he claims that the timing of this war was to boost his flagging popularity. He further argues that the electorate are aware that Putin and his oligarchs have drained the Russian treasury by over a trillion dollars which should have been spent on health care and improving the standard of living of the average Russian. Browder told Fareed Zaharia that Putin is afraid of being killed or jailed and the war is a diversion.
Oleg Tinkov a Russian billionaire has called the war insane, Presumably he is not beholden to Putin as he is not in the energy business. He claims that ninety percent of the Russians are against it. Tinkov joins a number of other oligarchs who have previously divorced themselves from the inhumane imperialistic adventure.
It stands to reason that the current sanctions cannot be helping the situation with the empty shelves reminiscent of the bad old days. The Mayor of Moscow stated that the loss of jobs has reached two hundred and twenty thousand in Moscow.
What is happening in the inner circles of power no one can tell. However Putin’s enemies must have increased exponentially over this war and his putting the blame on everyone else has to have groups conspiring in little corners. All this adds up to Putin needing something really to crow about on Victory Day in Red Square on May 9.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Well it would appear that Zelensky’s appeal for weapons, weapons, weapons is being answered. Biden has allocated a second eight hundred million including heavy artillery. Zelensky has even received planes from an unknown source. While Zelensky’s supply lines are longer the exit of the Russians from the North West means that they cannot easily be stopped. The Russian army has been reinforced and their supply lines are no longer a problem. There is little doubt that they will bomb the bejesus out of the cities on the way to Odessa and may even take a few of them for a while. However there is nothing that has changed that has turned this lot into a disciplined fighting force. Nor has the Ukrainian resolve to defend their country waned. So Jay H. Ell will stick to his belief that Zelensky will triumph in the end.
On May 9 Putin will have to conjure up some story to outweigh his retreat from the North, the sinking of the Moskva, the twenty thousand body bags and the eight dead generals and it better be good. He probably will be able to showcase the Russians controlling the rubble of what was once Mariupol and say he has now got his land connection to Crimea.
Putin may even just take Mariupol and then tell Zelensky that he is ready for peace. He will be more than a day too late and a dollar too short.
There is still a long way to go before the full ramifications of Putin’s war are realized. Jay H. Ell has also not entirely forgotten that he can still win and that indeed would be disastrous for Europe and the world.
Putin has taken a far bigger gamble than he realized. It is duck or no dinner or Peter the Great II or the bottom of the rubbish bin of history.
If Marine Le Pen wins the French Presidency it could change the ballgame somewhat.
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