PUTIN'S LAST DITCH STAND

 

Ukraine and Russia are involved in a stark battle which has far reaching ramifications for the geopolitical landscape of Europe and through NATO, the world. There is little doubt that should Ukraine lose then there will be a domino effect of Russian intervention on the surrounding countries comprising mostly of the former USSR and the Nordic nations. The unprovoked war was ostensibly only about liberating Ukraine from the neo Nazis that were in power so that it could once again part of Russia. However more broadly speaking it was a war against the democratic West and specifically against the USA. For the moment the Russian premier has a far limited objective. From expecting to have a victory parade in Kiev, (his forces were provided with parade uniforms), he just wants any conquest however small to show off and justify his crusade at the annual May 9 Victory Parade in Moscow, To ensure this he has amassed an army of sixteen battalions in the South East having been humiliated in the North West from where his army beat a retreat. 

It is now common cause that Putin, in his “Special Military Operation”, hopelessly misread the military and geopolitical outcomes as well as stimulating a world wide resurgence in the concept of democracy. The Ukraine war which is barely two months old has seen a reshuffling of the world order that is simultaneously taking place with wide spread inflation and on ongoing pandemic which is exacerbating the downward drift of economies. While the battle in Europe is between democracy and autocracy, several governments are facing revolts which appear to be more related to economic pressures and nationalism rather than the process of government itself. Nevertheless the central historical transformative event in 2022 is Putin’s unashamed naked brutal aggression and to a large extent the outcome is dependent on his subsequent behavior and whether the world will continue to cower to the bullying autocratic Putin or take the lead from Ukraine’s democratic Zelensky and supply him with the weapons which he so urgently needs.

WHERE WE ARE NOW IN UKRAINE - FROM PUTIN’S WORLD

There are three sources to help ascertain as to where the Russian President is at: reports from leaders who visit him; what he says and what he does. His unequivocal message to visiting world leaders is that he is winning the contest. He expresses the belief that this “Special Military Operation” was crucial to  Russia’s security. According to the Austrian President, who has made two sojourns to Moscow to make Putin aware of the extent pf the atrocities that were being perpetrated by his military, Putin was not fuzzed at all by the reality on the ground. There was no indication that the war crimes revealed to him were not part and parcel of his policy or at the very least he couldn’t care less.

To the Russian citizenry Putin has repeatedly stuck to his rationale for his “‘Special Military Operation”, - the Ukrainians are Nazis and are committing genocide on Russian speakers and NATO and Europe lead by the big “bogeyman” the USA are threatening to overrun Russia. He even held a rally ala his soul mate Donald Trump where the papered audience had to listen to the spiel live. Sadly due to technical difficulties his mike went dead so they had to hear the speech on TV that night. It was no loss because the whole show was meant for TV anyway. His repressive legislation against any opposition is evidence enough of his underlying fear that large sections of the population are not buying the humbug. Just in case they might be, he closed down all opposition media.

Putin was threatening the forces aligned against him and if his rhetoric was anything to go by things weren’t going so well. He warned the USA to stop arming the Ukrainians otherwise there might be “unpredictable” consequences. As one of his warnings earlier on was that he might use limited nuclear weapons it came as no surprise when the “unpredicted” consequences that he threatened Finland and Sweden with, was to put nuclear weapons on their borders if they joined NATO. All this bluster followed after he withdrew from his abortive attempt to take Kiev

His actions further confirmed that the “operation" thus far had been a disaster. He reportedly fired a hundred bureaucrats working in the Intelligence Services - someone had to be blamed for not telling him the obvious. A number of his inner circle were put under house arrest and his highly popular Defense Minister is no longer to be found at his side. He brought out of mothballs retired General Alexsandr Dvomikov, who was last seen in action in 2016, to conduct his South Eastern campaign where the chances of success were much higher. Alexsandr had gained many of his honors for his genocidal conduct of the Syrian war and had gained the reputation of being "The Butcher”. Notwithstanding Putin’s confidence in him it was still rather patriotic to step in as already eight Russian generals together with the twenty- thousand soldiers had succumbed in the battle to save Russia from the Nazi Ukrainians. He also made his glorious entry just as the pride of the Russian naval force was blown out of the waters. He would oversea the victory as the armed forces finally overcome Mariupol after a two months siege and then presumably march onto Odessa.

The South Eastern Dombas campaign has now become the real fight and the Russian people are being dutifully asked to forget what had happened before. Accompanying the new thrust was sporadic bombing of the rest of Ukraine in case they believed just because the enemy had retreated Putin had had lost the North West. So far Russian have not as yet shown any proclivity to fight on the ground, it has been all missiles and bombs. So it remains to be seen whether Alexsandr can convince them to fight hand to hand.

The big advantage of this phase is that Vladimir can use even a triumph over the rubbled Mariupol which will give him a thin land connection to Crimea and declare victory on May 9 and suddenly become serious about peace negotiations. 

RESPONSE TO PUTIN’S WORLD

Nowhere were Putin’s miscalculations more glaring than the world response to his unprovoked land grab. While the UNO condemnations and expulsions were almost unprecedented it was the coalition of European and NATO support with their vast material aid that hit Putin the hardest. NATO which he hates with a passion, which was on life support following four years of Trump, become unified in record time. The latest answer to his threats to Finland and Sweden have been ignored as both countries prepare to submit requests for admission at NATO’S June meeting. Both countries place no significance as to Putin’s statements or threats. The implicit interpretation is Putin will do what he likes regardless of what he says.  

The EU also emerged united.  Germany, who for seventy five years as a hang over from their twentieth century warmongering had spent virtually nothing on defense, dramatically increased their expenditure to two percent of their GDP and also promised the Ukrainians weapons. The Swiss  forsook their neutral stand and openly sided with Zelensky. Turkey who would be considered an ally to Russia was promoting peace talks and it was the Turkish drones that were highly lethal against Russian tanks. The former USSR Baltic states were allies looking after refugees giving what weapons they could and facilitating the transfer of weapons and humanitarian aid across the wide border with Ukraine. The EU itself invited Ukraine to apply for membership and gave one billion and three hundred million dollars in aid. 

The entity that Putin hates with an even greater fervor than NATO is the leader of NATO itself the USA, which brought together the UNO, NATO  and EU coalitions. The total aid allocated to Ukraine by Biden’s government exceeds sixteen billion dollars. Biden set limits on the weaponry he was initially prepared to provide Ukraine either believing where Russia’s red line on nuclear weapons was or having intelligence to that effect. Biden’s latest list of armory, however, includes long range weapons that require specialized training to operate. In the teeth of Putin’s warning that America should cut out its military support for Ukraine or face “unpredictable” consequences, Biden is providing training on how to use Howitzers. He had already taken a tough line within his own self made parameters warning Putin that an attack on an inch of a NATO  country would bring the combined forces, (two million), on Putin’s head and in the interim had called him a “Butcher” and his attack “genocide”. 

China may well be feeding Russian propaganda within China but there has been no recorded additional aid to Putin. Whatever Xi’s original intentions may have been they have to be blown away by the Covid resurgence in China. Shanghai with twenty five million citizens is in complete lockdown provoking rare protests. According to a CNN report up to four hundred million Chinese are under some sort of Covid restrictions. China’s policy on containment of the virus is obviously not effective and Xi has to be preoccupied with the health, political and economic fall out of his latest crisis. In any case on the international scene Xi has hardly been helpful to his closest soulmate Vlad. India have not halted trade with Russia but Modi recently had a protracted meeting with Biden. He has to see that he cannot continue to play both sides to the middle in the current conflagration. He also has been pressured by Boris Johnson who from early on has been providing Zelensky with offensive type weapons. Finally there is Orban of Hungary who also is a fat lot of use to Putin. Orban has not risked his NATO or EU membership to cement his friendship with the Russian Premier who incidentally like Trump, has claimed credit for Orban’s recent electoral victory. 

Without going into too much more detail Putin has not divided NATO which together with the EU are strengthened as a result of his attack. But the goalposts have been moved on that objective as well, as Lavrov, his Foreign Minister has explained - the only support they need is from the Russian people. 

PUTIN’S SUPPORT IN RUSSIA

According to opinion polls Putin has overwhelming approval ratings but opinion polls in a totalitarian regime are meaningless. Also the draconian punishments for the slightest challenges to Putin’s narrative make the fact that there have been any protests at all, noteworthy. The mere naming of the “Special Operation” as an invasion or a war is subject to a fifteen year prison sentence. Nevertheless close on twenty thousand have been arrested. The highly qualified have left the country in droves - an estimated two hundred and twenty thousand while within the country art, culture and even science has come to a halt. There were hundreds of signatories to a letter to Putin making clear their attitude on the Ukrainian venture. The massive new art museum is almost empty as artists have insisted that their works be removed. However this is the minority what about the masses?

There are a number of personages whose knowledge of the Russian electorate is more intimate and who can speak with authority as to how the Russians feel. There are two opposition leaders both of whom have been poisoned by Putin’s thugs. Both have voluntarily returned to Russia to face immediate arrest and imprisonment by the corrupt Justice system. Alexel Navalny who had six million YouTube subscribers has laid open wide the corruption of the Russian Premier and his oligarchs. He currently is serving a nine year plus sentence on trumped up charges. He has attempted to run for President on a number of occasions but has been effectively barred by guess who. While Navalny is the undisputed Russian opposition leader who has spurred on protests from prison another twice poisoned dissident, Kara Murza, has hit the headlines also returning from an oversea visit to be promptly arrested. Both these men are of the firm opinion that the majority of Russians want to be shot of Putin and it’s just a question of time before he is ousted one way or another.

There is yet another prominent Russian observer William Browder who corroborates Navalny and Murk’s Russian worldview. In fact Browder met with Murk prior to his return to Russia begging him not to go back as those who had poisoned him twice would imprison him. Browder’s Heritage Fund invested heavily in Russia and in 1997 was the best performing fund in the world. His commercial activism led to the inevitable banning from Russia and the seizing of his assets. His lawyer Sergei Magnitzky was arrested and died in prison. Browder then canvassed legislative bodies to pass an act which would pursue Human Rights violators. The subsequent legislation was termed the Magnitzky Act. The latter was a prime objective for removal by the Soviet operatives in their attempt to have Donald Trump elected in 2016. The reason for this spiel on Browder is to establish his credentials for understanding the current Russian electorate. 

Browder has remained in constant contact with those opposing the Russian regime and not only does he maintain that the Russians despise their dictator, he claims that the timing of this war was to boost his flagging popularity. He further argues that the electorate are aware that Putin and his oligarchs have drained the Russian treasury by over a trillion dollars which should have been spent on health care and improving the standard of living of the average Russian. Browder told Fareed Zaharia that Putin is afraid of being killed or jailed and the war is a diversion.

Oleg Tinkov a Russian billionaire has called the war insane, Presumably he is not beholden to Putin as he is not in the energy business. He claims that ninety percent of the Russians are against it. Tinkov joins a number of other oligarchs who have previously divorced themselves from the inhumane imperialistic adventure. 

 It stands to reason that the current sanctions cannot be helping the situation with the empty shelves reminiscent of the bad old days. The Mayor of Moscow stated that the loss of jobs has reached two hundred and twenty thousand in Moscow. 

What is happening in the inner circles of power no one can tell. However Putin’s enemies must have increased exponentially over this war and his putting the blame on everyone else has to have groups conspiring in little corners. All this adds up to Putin needing something really to crow about on Victory Day in Red Square on May 9.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Well it would appear that Zelensky’s appeal for weapons, weapons, weapons is being answered. Biden has allocated a second eight hundred million including heavy artillery. Zelensky has even received planes from an unknown source. While Zelensky’s supply lines are longer the exit of the Russians from the North West means that they cannot easily be stopped. The Russian army has been reinforced and their supply lines are no longer a problem. There is little doubt that they will bomb the bejesus out of the cities on the way to Odessa and may even take a few of them for a while. However there is nothing that has changed that has turned this lot into a disciplined fighting force. Nor has the Ukrainian resolve to defend their country waned. So Jay H. Ell will stick to his belief that Zelensky will triumph in the end. 

On May 9 Putin will have to conjure up some story to outweigh his retreat from the North, the sinking of the Moskva, the twenty thousand body bags and the eight dead generals and it better be good. He probably will be able to showcase the Russians controlling the rubble of what was once Mariupol and say he has now got his land connection to Crimea. 

Putin may even just take Mariupol and then tell Zelensky that he is ready for peace. He will be more than a day too late and a dollar too short. 

There is still a long way to go before the full ramifications of Putin’s war are realized. Jay H. Ell has also not entirely forgotten that he can still win and that indeed would be disastrous for Europe and the world. 

Putin has taken a far bigger gamble than he realized. It is duck or no dinner or Peter the Great II or the bottom of the rubbish bin of history. 

If Marine Le Pen wins the French Presidency it could change the ballgame somewhat.

 

ZELENSKY - REVOLUTIONARY LEADER FOR A NEW DEMOCRATIC ORDER

It has become increasingly more evident that in the twenty first century the central battle for political power will not be between competing ideologies as much as it will be centered on the way nations are governed - either by participatory consent or by a powerful elite.  It is thus serendipity that as the world wrestles between the opposing governmental systems of democracy and autocracy that the war between Russia and Ukraine is being fought by protagonists of each system. It is also obvious that the ability of the United Nations to effect its peace keeping mandate is even more ineffective in the twenty - first century in response to this change. The central figure in these transformative events is the Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. 

 Renowned political scientist Francis Fukuyama has gone as far as to say that the outcome of the titanic Eastern European battle will determine whether autocracy or democracy will triumph as the dominant political structure henceforth.  On the one side there is the poster child for autocracy Russia’s Vladimir Putin and on the other the newly designated leader for democracy Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. The former behaving like a brutal sociopathic imperialist “warmonger” while the latter surprised the world by emerging as the de facto luminary of democracy both in his country and the world by his determined fight for freedom..

However the outcome of this conflict and how it can be resolved is still very much up in the air. On the one hand Putin cannot tolerate any outcome that does not allow for him to declare some sort of victory and on the other Zelensky will continue until such time that Ukraine’s independence, direction to Western democracy is accepted and security is ensured. 

ZELENSKY

On its face it is amazing that an unassuming personage, who had no previous political or military experience, who is the head of a nation with the population of the order of California, could within the space of six weeks become the moral leader of the values that the Second World War ostensibly fought to attain and that the United Nations had been founded to preserve. In assuming this role the Ukrainian President has illustrated his unparalleled skills as a communicator inspiring his country to bravery, deprivation and even giving their lives for the objective of freedom. He has made addresses almost daily in legislative chambers throughout the world. Each was tailor made to the respective nation’s history and conflicts, The bottom lines however were the same  -  gratitude for the help so far but a warning that should Ukraine not receive the weaponry needed they will see the flattening of Ukraine and the wholesale slaughter of its peoples. His peroration has been, “Give us the wherewithal and we will do the fighting”, implicitly for Western democracy as well. Zelensky leads the resistance from the front, exposing himself daily to potential harm as he moves among the military and the citizens.

Superlatives have rained down as he dominates the world stage. Some critics have been derogatory in their assessment claiming he was just playing a role that his training and experience had prepared him for. Coincidentally, Sean Penn the Oscar winning actor and film producer was in the process of creating a documentary about the Ukrainian premier. He was there before the war and at his beginning. Penn, who is an activist on many fronts and has seen many in the forefront of causes and catastrophes, spoke of Zelensky almost in messianic terms, summing up that “he was ‘born for this”.

What is fascinating is the praise the military leaders have heaped on him, although they freely admit that he was helped by Russian incompetence. A former head of NATO compared him to George Washington whose military savvy with a ragbag army defeated the British and then he went on to be the political leader that put together the country after somehow persuading the disparate groups to join in the fight. 

However what really amazes Jay H. Ell is that he has basically called for a new world body of like thinking nations and rattled the cages of the complacent dysfunctional UNO. George Brown the former British Prime Minister has in the wake of this conflict mooted an organization of like minded democracies joining together in a new body presumably with trade and defense arrangements.

ZELENSKY AND A NEW WORLD ORDER.

It stands to reason that a body that had sought to maintain peace during the cold war when competing ideologies were the order of the day would be even more ineffectual when the system of government per se would be the central point of controversy. Whether state directed, run by corrupt cronies or open to the free market, capitalism in one form or another has been adopted. (Again to a lesser or greater extent social welfare schemes have been introduced even in the most capitalist of countries including the United States). 

The Charter of the United Nations was designed to uphold peace between nations, a principle that all members had signed onto. While the UNO had to a lesser or greater extent not been able to hold the participating nations to this objective its impotence is currently even more pronounced as brutally pointed out by Zelensky. He made it clear that if the body could not expel a naked genocidal aggressor such as Russia it should call it quits - only a  non politician could exclaim that the “Emperor had no clothes". In effect he was calling for a new world body that would uphold the ideals of protecting a member state against aggression. The current organization was powerless to caution a member who had been appointed, as all the allied powers were, with veto privileges, With authority Zelensky called out the United Nations Security Council who accepted his sweeping admonitions, affording him the respect that might have been reserved to a seasoned world statesman like a Mandela. 

The unorthodox head of state reminded the Security Council that there had been a pattern of this behavior by the Russians - Syria, Chechnia, Georgia, Muldovia and Crimea as well as in Eastern Ukraine which the Council had apparently been powerless to respond too. The body was not constituted for the task it had espoused as its number one priority - world peace.  A new organization was obviously needed of like minded nations.

THE RESPONSE OF NATIONS

There have been responses on many levels to the crisis engendered by the Russian invasion depending on a host of factors reflecting the situation of the countries themselves. The former USSR countries who voted with their feet to join NATO have accepted nearly four million refugees with Poland taking the lead. The spirit of welcome has been only matched by the organizational expertise that was needed to accommodate all these displaced persons. As has been highlighted again and again the EU and NATO have consolidated behind Ukraine in a manner undreamed off. They have been joined by nations across the globe including Switzerland who for the first time have dumped their neutrality role which they have used to great effect to become the funk hole of generations of wealth. Then there have been the group who are condemning the atrocities but are beholden or dependent on Russia to varying degrees so they are staying out of the line of fire without taking the tough public line like the rest. (Some still voting for sanctions in the General Assembly but most abstaining).

Finally there are those nations who should be the natural allies of Putin’s autocratic stance such as Hungary, Turkey and even Poland. Poland have already jumped ship and Orban, (still Putin’s friend), and Erdogan have publicly let it be known that they have told Putin to call it quits and have offered to broker a peace. It is also fair to say that even in the most ardent proponents of democracy there are strong movements for autocracy. To name just two - the Putin/Trump wing in the USA’S Republican Party and France’s Marine Le Pen who is mounting a serious challenge to President Macron. 

China, who recently signed an extensive pact of Kumbaya, cooperation and shared values and objectives with Russia, have become increasingly frustrated at their best friend’s behavior and isolation. While paying lip service by referring to the naked aggression as a “Special Military Operation” they have not voted for the Russians at the UN rather abstaining on motions of condemnation and even sanctions. While Putin’s objective is to bring back from the dead the old USSR, China’s vision is the whole world so that the longer this battle proceeds the more disenchanted the People’s Republic will become. They also must be making a mental note of what the response may be to a Taiwan grab. 

So there it is Russia for practical terms more and more isolated but still getting revenue from energy and what trade it is still has going with China, India and a few others.

WHAT IS THE SITUATION NOW?

It is widely acknowledged that Russia is losing the war on the ground largely due to an inept uncoordinated attack with no logistical support to the troops whose morale is low. The Ukrainian defenders have witnessed destruction of their cities, large scale civilian loss including over two hundred children. Brutal crimes against humanity have been documented against Putin’s forces. Putin’s  intelligence that he would be hailed as a liberator and within three days insert a puppet regime in Kiev has been shown to be hopelessly off the mark.

Russia has been driven from the North. That massive armored column that stretched for forty miles has been decimated with air power and anti tank missiles. Putin has claimed that the withdrawal is a goodwill gesture to promote peace talks but the consensus is that Russia has retreated, been defeated and is regrouping in Belarus for the fight in the East. On March 25, nearly four thousand Russian vehicles of war had been destroyed which included one hundred and twenty three aircraft, one hundred and twenty seven helicopters, five hundred and eighty four tanks, seventy - three fuel tankers, seven boats, sixty six unmanned aerial vehicles and eleven hundred general military vehicles. Recently it was revealed in the Washington Post that Russia had already lost nineteen thousand soldiers and an unknown number were wounded or captured. Putin’s Chief of Staff in a rare interview only seen in the West admitted that the Russians had sustained “significant” losses.

From the Ukrainian side it was acknowledged that thirteen hundred soldiers have died. There was no figures given for the wounded or captured. The Ukrainian devastation was its loss of civilians, buildings and infrastructure including the raising to the ground of  Mariupoi a city of four hundred thousand. The Ukrainians have lost one city to the Russians, even the ruins of Mariupol are not in the enemy’s hands. 

At present there is a relative lull in the fighting interspersed by the Russian long range missile attacks while they regroup for their Eastern assault in an attempt to create a land corridor from Russian held Donbas to Crimea. Odessa a sea port city in the South has to be a prized objective by Putin but much like Kiev it is a fantasy to think he could take it much less hang on to it. There are reports that Russia is to be joined by Chechnians, Syrians and the infamous Wagner group of mercenaries. 

In answer to the Russians regrouping, weapons are pouring into Ukraine. Secretary of State Blinken claimed that for every Russian tank there are ten anti tank missiles. Finally, Biden has agreed to replace Slovakian S - 300 missiles with a Patriot system which they would provide training for. The UK’S Boris Johnson, who has to date provided effective anti missile weaponry, on a visit to Kiev upped the anti missile support and they with others, notably Australia, are providing armored vehicles. Johnson was the fifth world leader to enter Kiev in support of the Ukrainian effort.

WHAT NEXT?

 Russia has become more and more isolated on the world scene - a reality which was acknowledged by Foreign Minister Lavrov when he retorted to the press that the only people he needed support from were the Russians. Internally Putin has to fear the economic deprivation that has already taken hold in Russia. The sanctions have resulted In an imposed financial iron curtain around Russia as well as inflation and scarcities being endured by the faithful. Sooner or later the narrative that Russia is the liberator and the atrocities are staged has to be questioned as information seeps in and families don’t hear from their loved ones in ever increasing numbers.

Now that annexing the whole of Ukraine as part of Russia is off the table the only choice left is consolidating Donbas and forging a land corridor to Crimea. With that in mind bombing that  Ukrainian part of the country to the Stone Ages still appears to be the playbook of the Russian autocrat. However there is only one alternative to gain ground and that is a ground fight. In the process he will carry out his willful attacks on civilians and refugees seeking out gathering places such as train stations. But that does not secure territory. The Ukrainians will be strengthened by forces that can be released from the North as there is as much chance of Putin returning there soon as the UN Security Council passing a resolution that Ukraine belongs to Russia.

There is talk of this going on for years. Putin cannot sustain his internal situation for years. In the light of the fact that it has already been proven that he can’t begin to match Ukraine on the ground the obvious conclusion is that he is going to lose the war. An option that the media find very difficult to articulate. This outcome will have a weighty consequences in the world order.

Putin can of course resort to chemical warfare or even limited nuclear weaponry but he has no idea as to what that will bring upon his head. If that was what he had in mind he would have let loose before he had to ignominiously retreat from Kiev.

The democracies need not hold back for fear of escalation, Russia is not the Russia when this contest began nearly seven weeks ago.

IF PUTIN LOSES

Leaving the internal Russian political situation aside for the moment as to whether Putin is able to survive by blaming everyone else how does this outcome impact the world situation. At this stage it no longer matters what Russia thinks about Ukraine joining NATO and the EU and maybe that is how it will end. If Francis Fukuyama is right Russia losing will strengthen democracy throughout the world, Certainly the former USSR countries will be safe to pursue democracy without constantly worrying about Russian aggression.

Most significantly Russia will have lost its gravitas. Zelensky’s suggestion of taking their veto power away from them will not become that controversial. Nor will Gordon Brown’s proposal for a new world body. The existing order has already been challenged. Already the almost unprecedented action of throwing Russia, one of the five veto powers, off the Human Rights Council has been enacted. The last time this happened was in 2011 when Libya was removed. Axing a major power is a big big deal and is a marker of the loss of standing the Russians have sustained in less than two months.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Whichever way this is viewed the future ain’t what it used to be. The powerhouse of the united Sino Soviet axis has to be wobbly. Russia is on its way to being a third rate banana republic with nukes. (At least Pakistan is a democracy). China has to rethink its designs on Taiwan. NATO and the EU have been rejuvenated and all those who are sanguine about the seductive choice of having an autocracy have to once agin be reminded that it is the slippery slope to hell.

In 2005 Putin opined that the collapse of the USSR was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century. How will he characterize the collapse of modern day Russia?

Ultimately this is a very difficult situation to predict with any degree of certainty. Jay H. Ell was wrong from the word go never believing that cold pragmatic Putin would be so stupid as to embark on this risky venture. Putin fantasized that it would make him look like Peter the Great but it has ended up in making appear more like Ivan the Terrible.

The good news is that the Russian armored column to the East is only four miles long. The bad news is that they will be joined by the Russian separatists and the supply lines will be much closer than in the North. 

Finally Putin has done his greatest admirer Trump another favor. By starting a war attention has been diverted from the daily revelations of Trump’s role in the 1/6 attempted coup