The question of how the Ukrainian war might end as well as the role NATO and more specifically the USA may play is coming more and more into focus as Putin exponentially increases his indiscriminate bombing of civilians their homes and institutions. One consensus is that it becomes more and more obvious that sooner or later Putin’s army is about to suffer a defeat akin to the humiliating failure in Afghanistan. Another consensus is that the sociopathic Putin will never surrender! This latter fact is born out by the ridiculous “negotiations” between the two country’s foreign ministers where Putin’s terms were that Zelansky surrender.
All this is playing out to the background that Putin is planning chemical warfare and Biden has intelligence, as to what will trigger a Russian nuclear response, namely the Americans creating a fly free zone. So far Biden has not declared a red line where he would get involved. Biden’s objective to reassure Putin that he is not involved in a war against him has taken a hit with the Russian establishment claiming that the economic moves constitute a war.
At present the Russian forces have not taken much of Ukraine’s territory. The Russians have depended on long range missiles and the “successes” have been mainly in the South where his troops have been occupied for over two weeks. The plan is to siege the towns which means the troops from the South cannot join in the Kiev fight. The big fight in the South is take Maripol which has put up massive resistance and are withstanding the siege, So far only one town Kershov is under Russian control. But the damage has been humungous. Putin’s much vaunted military attack on Kiev from the North has hardly moved an inch and they are now dispersing with a view to surrounding Kiev. The Ukrainians maintain that the dispersion is to hide from their attacks. There are estimated to be up to at least thirteen hundred dead civilians including children, The Russian response has been they are not at war with Ukraine while at the same time they are not targeting civilians!
Putin, a student of history, is trying to reverse the disintegration of the USSR that the Afghanistan catastrophe engendered. He has never come to terms with that shattering outcome and in his recounting of Russian infallibility blamed the West for the dissolution of the Russian Empire. Key to the rebuilding of the USSR is the amalgamation of Ukraine which is larger than France, where Russian is widely spoken and the Greek Orthodox Church dominates. Culturally and historically it belongs to Putin’s Russia he feels. The population of over forty million is about thirty percent of Russia’s itself.
On March 7 the London Mirror estimated that Russia had already lost eleven thousand troops, forty - four war planes and a similar number of helicopters,, three hundred and eighty - five tanks, one thousand armored vehicles and one hundred and nine artillery systems. The figure that Putin has to worry about is those in coffins or body bags. If the Mirror is right they have sustained as many casualties in the years long Afghanistan war,
PUTIN’S TIME PRESSURE
The official line is Putin has time on his side. Putin, however, has to be under time pressure. His country has been brought to its knees by the economic sanctions imposed upon it by virtually the whole world, by the exiting of almost all foreign businesses, the nobbling of his commercial air power even within the country and its isolation from the world in every conceivable area of activity. The currency is useless, inflation and interest rates are sky high while their stock exchange has been closed for over two weeks. Over fifteen thousand protestors have been arrested not cowered by the draconian sentences introduced for this behavior. There have been six thousand calls to the Ukrainian hot line from Russian relatives enquiring as to the whereabouts of their sons/brothers/husbands. The Ukrainians estimate is that they there are fifteen thousand dead soldiers. Sooner or later, if Putin has nothing to show for this toll, which has to be increasing by the minute, it will end his reign one way or another. In all this his nuclear arsenal hangs over the unfolding tragedy like a mushroom cloud. In fact the potential threat is so ominous that it has cowered NATO to publicly frame their actions to avoid direct confrontation with Russia.t
WHERE PUTIN IS NOW
As Putin’s inhumanity drags on it is the first war that is.being witnessed in living rooms around the world as it tragically unfolds. The revelations of the atrocities on civilians and the wholesale slaughter of women and children and the institutions such as hospitals, schools and kindergartens are the media’s lead story in the West. This has led to the “free’ world uniting in a fashion not witnessed since the Second World War. The shocked citizenry has even led authoritarian countries such as Hungary, Turkey and Poland to declare that they are solidly behind Volodymyr’s Zelensky’s Churchillian determination to hold on to democracy.
Vladimir Putin has made miscalculation after miscalculation using as a mantra that Ukraine is not a country, that the Russians in that “non country” were being suppressed by a neo Nazi Government who were all drug addicts. His ill prepared and underfed army who when given the order to invade had already been hanging around in freezing weather for weeks on the Ukrainian border. This while Putin lied to the world that he wouldn’t invade. Putin in truth was hoping that the television comedian Zelensky would fold and surrender before he fired a shot, that the war weary Biden, facing a resurgent Trump, would introduce a few token sanctions and the disunified and inward looking members of NATO and the EU would just make disapproving noises. Like everything else he misread Biden big time, who if Zelansky is this millennium’s symbol for freedom, Biden is its statesman.
WHAT WILL PUTIN DO?
The good news for the Russian dictator is that with the news block his propaganda is still working with the elderly. There is a campaign in Ukraine for the eleven million citizens that have relatives in Russia to keep calling them to disabuse them of the Russian propaganda.
Putin has a number of options, none of them good. The conventional wisdom is that he will double down which was the diplomatic message at the Turkey meeting. Both the CIA Director and the Director of National Intelligence maintained, when addressing legislative forums, were of that opinion. The CIA Director reported that Putin was “angry” and that he cannot “allow himself to lose”. With the casualties mounting and his army nowhere remotely having taken Kiev let alone holding it, Putin has to soldier on mainly with his long range armory. All his options include adding nuclear and or chemical warfare.
Putin is dealing with demoralized troops with now three Generals wiped out. There is a daily procession on Ukrainian TV of captured Russian soldiers detailing how they have been misled and imploring their colleagues to desert. This must sooner or later, be circulated on Russian clandestine social networks.
There is of course the option to bring in more forces. This obviously is not on as the current force was not entirely made up of conventional troops several being policeman and many being rookie conscripts for example. It has been reliably reported that he is trying to recruit Syrians to join the battle.
The most likely outcome is that Putin will plod on till he is either stopped in the Russian streets, or is subject to a coup. Putin is out of touch with even the reality of what could be going on his own office. There have been two public TV displays of the Russian leader’s disdain for his cabinet and department heads. It is reported that he often does not come into his office. Now of course he has to have his informers. But they must be evident to potential plotters. Putin is no more immune from this type of attack than Hitler was. The latter was in regular contact with his sycophantic heads. Now even though Putin has purged anyone perceived not to be a hundred percent loyal there are those in all arenas whose agenda he is wrecking.
Several oligarchs have outright verbalized their opposition. Their ties to Putin have become unfastened with the impounding of their assets. Mikhail Fridman was the first to speak out against the war. Another, Mordashov, distanced himself from the “operation”. Oleg Deripaska, of Trump election fame, opined that “negotiations” must begin immediately, while Oleg Timkov has maintained that “this” was “unacceptable and unthinkable”. Vladimir Putatin yet another Russian oligarch has warned that if Putin nationalizes foreign businesses he will take the country back to 1917.
The oligarchs are supported by other high profile figures in Russia in literary and cultural figures. A former military General had cautioned against Putin’s move as the troops languished in Belarus. Retired General Leonard Ishavov who is head of all Russia’s Officers’ Assembly who he claims are behind him, called for Putins resignation.
However what Putin must be fearing most be from the current security and military cabinet members, The Washington Post named two, Nikolai Patrushev ,secretary of the Russian Security Council and Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the Federal Security Service as well as other current and former senior security officials. Between them they are in direct control of hundreds of thousands of armed personnel and law enforcement authorities. Putin has axed eight Generals as a result of the Ukrainian calamity. So the internal enemies have to be building up. It is hard to believe that discussions aren’t taking place around water coolers.
Finally, there are the streets and the protestors and Navalny shouting the odds from prison. The jails have never been as full with protestors and there is literally standing room only. Even on Russian State TV one of the announcers have called for the war to be called off. The most important spur for removing hopefully the last Tzar or Russia has to be inside his own cabinet.
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN AMERICA?
The American population have, as a result of the graphic ongoing images on TV depicting Putin’s barbarism and the brave resistance of Zelansky’s Ukraine, backed up Biden’s actions to the hilt. However the fact is that this is at the expense of the devastation of Ukraine, death of civilians and nearly two and half million refugees. Seventy percent of Americans are prepared to pay more at the pump to support the Ukrainians. A similar amount will back a no fly zone which Biden obviously has intelligence that this is Putin’s nuclear line in the sand
Trump’s nominees in Primaries have taken a hit for backing his love of Putin and his initial response of calling him a “genius” for the war. This also has led to Republicans campaigning that Biden is weak and that more shall be done. There has been a bipartisan vote for a thirteen billion dollar support package for Ukraine. Biden’s approval numbers are inching up as has proved a stable yet forceful leader courting bipartnership nationally and internationally.
It is fair to say that the American administration misread the outcome of this confrontation. They like Putin underestimated the Ukrainian resistance and overestimated the Russian military. Everyone was prepared for an urban fight. Plans were made to airlift Zelensky and his inner circle to be a government in exile. As Zelensky countered he needed ammunition not a ride. This fight has now continued for over two weeks and in Putin’s frustration he is adapting a scorched earth policy. America need to rethink its policy as to whether they provide Migs somehow or other as those long range missiles and artillery have to be taken out before they reduce Ukraine to rubble. Zelensky needs the wherewithal to win this war. The removal of Russian’s so called “favored nation” trade status will just not cut it.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The longer this carries on the more this becomes a battle between democracy and autocracy. America as the leader of the free world have to see it as such. Zelensky has convinced the world that this is what this conflict is all about.
Standing around waiting for Putin to be axed is not a policy. The more he perceives he is vulnerable the more outrageous and desperate his actions will become.
Like in Syria Putin has threatened chemical warfare by claiming that this is what the Americans were planning as a false flag operation. Obama claimed that their use in Syria was a red line in the sand and then chickened out. Biden in spite of his aversion to conflict needs to draw some lines in the sand. He has America and the world behind him. So far his line in the sand does not to extend Ukraine and he insists it won’t.
At the end of the day the Russians still have no endgame.
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