In the past few days there has been a ramping up of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The Russian troops are nowhere near their objective of taking Kiev, the Ukrainians arguing that they have even forced them back from the suburbs of their capitol.The fifth Russian General has been killed in action. Russia’s response has to up their raining down of missiles and bombs, even to the extent of upping the ante dramatically by using hypersonic missiles. They still have not control of the air and most of the destruction is being launched from either from the border, or Belarus. In addition Putin, sweating the failure in over three weeks to achieve his objectives held a rally where he argued that this was a holy war of redemption and elimination of the neo Nazis of Ukraine. Biden got nowhere, for the moment, with Xi of China, who is figuring a response to his desperate newest best friend for food and guns. China however has everything to lose and Xi is as sociopathic as Putin. His trade with Europe and America is one and a half trillion dollars and with Russia a hundred and fifty million. Not a difficult calculation for the Chinese autocrat.
The overwhelming majority of the world are watching with horror the slaughter of civilians including children. Biden has skillfully created an international coalition but has balked at supplying Ukraine with aircraft and creating a no fly zone. He needs however to find a way to at least deliver S - 300 missiles which could take out the Russia’s only effective weapon - lobbing murder and destruction from outside of Ukraine. So where are we now in what is turning out to be a battle between good and evil and democracy and autocracy?
WHERE WE ARE NOW
The world, particularly the “North Atlantics” as the late Lady Barbara Jackson used to call the coalition of North America and Western Europe,” have identified with the Ukrainian bravery, resilience, determination and fighting to the death for democracy. The surrounding semi circle of former USSR countries, now mostly NATO members, are in particular solidarity having joined the struggle of the embattled Ukraine, providing military assistance and a safe haven for the three and a half million women and children who have escaped the barbarism of Putin’s onslaught. No countries know better the brutal yoke of Russian totalitarianism than the former members of the USSR. The common cause for democracy and the right of countries to decide their own destiny is refreshing in an age where inward looking nationalism seemed the order of the day.
Overhanging the support for Ukraine is guilt and shame by the democratic peoples of the world that the battle for democracy has been left to the Ukrainians who are being pounded to pulp. There is also a sense of helplessness as everyone stands by, doing very little compared to the sacrifices being made by the Ukrainians. In truth nations’ hands are tied because the Russian bully has nuclear weapons which he has threatened to use should the troops in the field become global. Nevertheless Biden has united the most of the world in enforcing crippling economic sanctions, providing arms that can wipe out tanks, armed vehicles and even fighter planes. Putin reeling from the devastating outcome of his “special military operation” has appealed to his newest friend XI, who while not condemning his invasion, has called for peace and overtly provided nothing.
This war, unlike any other is being captured live by the electronic media and the ability of every citizen with a phone to record every sickening moment. The iconic video of a mother and children been liquidated by a Russian bomb and of a pregnant mother on a homemade stretcher being carried out of the bombed Maripol Women and Children’s Hospital are etched into the shocked world’s psyche. These scenes as well as the wanton carnage on medical facilities, warehouses and apartment buildings are juxtaposed with the lying Lavrov stating that the episodes were staged. For those not privy to the extent of the pouring in of weaponry and support to Ukraine the repeated words of support have to ring hollow reminding them of the refrain in the musical My Fair lady, “Words words words, I am so sick of words…”. Without the billions of dollars of armaments and supplies Putin may well have achieved his dream by now.
So every daily action is overhung by the ongoings in Ukraine. It is impossible to eliminate from consciousness the burning apartment buildings and the knowledge that at least a hundred children that have been killed. The daily renderings of never ending streams of refugees with mothers clinging to their children some of whom are old enough to be terrified and others who are young enough to be oblivious to the fact that life will never be the same and that they may never see their fathers again.
It was against this background that the democratic world, led by the American President Joe Biden responded to the Ukrainian heroism, having originally banked on supporting a guerrilla war in Kiev, rather than a full blown battle across the whole country. (Blog: Zelensky’s Ukraine - Putin and Biden’s Miscalculations”).
BIDEN’S FINEST HOUR WITH FREEDOM ICON ZELENSKY AS HIS FOIL
Biden has galvanized a planet that was slowly but surely sinking into an autocratic populist quagmire to fight for the cause of democracy. In so doing he had to tread a careful line so as not to precipitate World War Three.
Biden has been more than mindful that his strength could be sapped if he didn’t have America behind him. When the Russian invasion begun three weeks ago one in four Americans backed a “no fly zone” now three in four do, even though they don’t understand that that means troops on the ground which they are overwhelmingly against. Biden’s immediate support for the Ukrainians set off the Trump faction who thought it was politically savvy to openly back Putin, “the genius”. Senate Republican leader, McConnell, was more subtle hinting that Biden’s inglorious exit from Afghanistan must have been part of Putin’s calculation. Now that is all changed, a bipartisan act of Congress to grant Ukraine thirteen billion dollars having already been signed into law. Trump’s sidekick deluxe Lindsey Graham proposed a resolution that was passed unanimously that Putin be charged as a war criminal. And on top of that thirty Republican Senators are saying Biden must do more.
Volodymyr Zelensky, the Churchillian icon for freedom addressed Congress for the second time. As with his initial intervention to Congress and those in the UK, Germany,Israel and Canada he was greeted with standing ovations. At all his appearances he was thankful for the help but laid a guilt trip that it wasn’t enough. His skillfully crafted speeches featured allusions to the specific countries crises which had or could threaten their existence. He hammered home that he needed a no fly zone while leaving room to be provided with the wherewithal to take out the missile and armory stations that were indiscriminately bombing his country.
Zelensky’s encore performance at the Capitol begs two questions- Why was Zelensky invited back and why is he making “the no fly zone” central to his survival? His latter demand has no bipartisan or NATO support with good reason - most of the carnage coming from the sky is from batteries either from the Eastern part of Ukraine or Belarus and creating a no fly zone could well result in World War Three. The Democrats control Congress so the invite had to come from them and Biden had to have agreed to it. So why would the POTUS want to set himself up to be criticized? He could expect the passionate heroic communicator to emphasize that it was a fight just as much for American democracy as it was for Ukrainian freedom. The Ukrainian President as he has done elsewhere peppered his inspirational oration with American allusions - we are after all “All Ukrainians”. Biden could go have gone forward without setting himself up for criticism and demands from the Republicans to do more.
Biden followed Zelensky with a stirring answer of his own promising another eight hundred million dollars. To the military cognoscenti the brief outline of the weaponry to be advanced indicated that there was the wherewithal to take on the Russian war machine in Ukraine. The other major take away Biden gleaned from Zelensky’s rah rah speech was that it gave him enough maneuverability to agree to any of the other NATO members who on their own might want to provide Zelensky with Soviet fighter planes or S- 300 missiles. Biden was personally attending the NATO meeting on March 23.
Helping Biden’s narrative is the fact that the media have non stop shown the Russian brutality on the one hand and the Ukrainian resilience and bravery on the other.
MEANWHILE BACK IN UKRAINE
Three and a half weeks into this aggression Russia have not much to show for their overwhelming fire power and military advantage. They have taken one city, Kershon, where they face daily demonstrations. They could not take Maripol so they have bombed it to ruble. (So much for taking cities and converting them with puppets to Russian enclaves), They have not achieved their objective of sealing Ukraine off from from the sea. Odessa remains almost as out of reach as is Kiev. The grand plan of the all conquering Russians with three military prongs from the South, North and the East blazing through the country and then taking Kiev appears unattainable at this rate.
Russian casualties have been estimated from anything from four hundred to seven hundred a day.Thus by day twenty - one the total estimated dead was between eight thousand four hundred to nearly fifteen thousand. This figure is humongous compared to the five soldiers a day they lost in Afghanistan. Zelensky claims to have shot down a hundred planes, even more helicopters and endless armed vehicles. The Russian troops are demoralized and there is no synchronization between air bombardment and troop movements. There are six hundred soldiers that are prisoners of war several of whom are cajoling their compatriots to call it quits. It is no wonder that the red on the map of Ukraine has remained static for three weeks.
However the Ukrainian toll for these feats is heavy as the streams of refugees indicate, whether they are pictured receiving food at the border or gingerly crossing a river whose bridge has blown up to thwart the enemies progress. The burning buildings, the rubble of Ukrainian homes and institutions, the curfews, the sirens, the bloodied victims, the dead citizens in mass graves, the citizen forces with their range of weaponry standing next to makeshift blockades, the endless interviews of families cramped in basements having taken the decision to see this out in Ukraine and more and more, Illustrate the sacrifices being made for independence.
MEANWHILE BACK IN RUSSIA
President Vladimir Putin still has the microphone having instituted draconian penalties for those even referring to his adventure as anything but a “special military operation”. None the less protests have taken place where fifteen thousand have been jailed. Dozens of journalists have been reported to have fled. The iconic protest by a Russian TV Producer in the number one TV propaganda channel certainly was a sensation outside of Russia but there is no way to measure its impact on its target audience.There have been open protest letters from thousands of signatories in the cultural and scientific communities. The statements by imprisoned opposition Navalny certainly are broadcast to the outside world. But the reports are that Putin is still firmly in control. However in a world that silence is safety who really knows what the situation is?
It boggles the mind that the majority of the Russian population cannot see the enormity of what has happened. Even they must reel at the draconian punishments that would be meted out if the special operation was labelled an invasion. Nearly every Western business has upped snd left. The extent of Western involvement in the Russian economy is evidence that Russia itself is far more Westernized than Putin would admit. Putin has now stated the obvious to his body politic, that they will be suffering. However he added, “This economic blitzkrieg from the West has failed”. He asked the Russians to mobilize in order to overcome the difficulties related to the massive sanctions. Putin admitted that “..it was not easy for us now”. He compared the moves against Russia akin to the anti semitic attack by the fascists. He reassured that the “operation” was successful. His rationale for the “operation” was to prevent Ukraine from being used as a springboard for aggressive actions against Russia, He claimed at his rally that it was glorious to die for one’s friends.
The fact that Putin had to give this apologia to the Russian public, has recruited Syrian mercenaries and has asked China for help is evidence enough that he is in deep trouble. Russia’s bonds have been designated junk status. His media censorship is working for any conventional platform, (Jay H. Ell used to get several hits for his blog in Russia and over the three week period they have been totally eliminated).
Putin went ballistic in his most recent broadcast spewing out his rationale for clamping down on internal opposition to his special military operation, “The Russian people will always be able to distinguish between true patriots from scum and traitors and simply spit them out like a fly that accidentally flew into their mouth. I am convinced that such a natural and necessary self- purification of society, our solidarity cohesion and readiness to respond our country, our solidarity,”
Putin faces many internal challenges as outlined in the last blog, The Security Police have arrested several of the intelligence operators. (“Zelansky’s Ukraine - Putin and Biden’s Miscalculation”). However it has to be the body bag count that will be his downfall. In addition more and more are gaining internet information in one way or another. Apparently Arnold Schwarzenegger’s appeal to soldiers to desist has gone viral. Mothers, wives, siblings, relatives and friends have not heard from their sons for over six weeks and are at the end of their wits. Regardless whether they swallow Putin’s garbage they want to know what has happened to their loved ones.
MEANWHILE BACK IN CHINA
China is between a rock and a hard place. They appeared to have recemented the Sino - Soviet love affair that broke up long before the USSR collapsed. However all they have in common is that Xi and Vlad are dictators and they both want chunks of land that they believe belong to the motherland. They also are terrified of their countries getting the democracy bug and thus share a hatred of the USA. China paradoxically has a policy of territorial integrity for nations. China in their clumsy balancing act have articulated the latter principle.
China have voiced the need for peace and that they are deeply disturbed by the atrocities in Ukraine. Never the less they back Putin’s narrative that this is an “operation”. They are apparently mulling over whether to give their newest best friend military and financial help and are deeply put out by America’s warning to them that they could face consequences. Every indication points to them not meeting Russia’s need for economic and military assistance. When push comes to shove China is not going to sacrifice the inroads it has made in world trade. If they send Russia ammunition and money they will join them as pariahs. Jay H. Ell is not an advisor to Xi so he will let him work this all out for himself.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Although there are peace negotiations going on and Zelensky has stated that he is not going to join NATO, it is hard to see the talks going anywhere. Putin would be toast if he has fifteen thousand dead for just retaining the status quo and Zelensky would be left with mass graves, rubble and a broken economy. Zelensky is going to need the big boys to negotiate for him. Russia are going to need reassurance that if and when they fold that the crippling sanctions will be withdrawn.
Biden has achieved his objective of uniting America behind him. With that in mind he can go to NATO and the EU with a free hand.
Sooner or later “The Republicans” will jump the bipartisan ship and blame Biden for the war or not doing enough or too much or whatever.
America is going to have to leave Fox’s Tucker Carlson, who gets more coverage in Moscow than in America, to Rupert Murdoch. Carlson is as infamous as Father Coughlin and the British Lord Haw Haw both who broadcast Nazi propaganda. If the American advertisers finally boycott his show Murdoch can easily get Russian commercial entities to advertise, But as the victim Tucker wails, “Putin has never called him a racist” or “Think why you don’t like Putin?”.
Trump has been strangely quiet this week as he has come to the realization that Putin maybe a loser too. His advice to Putin is, regardless of outcome, to tell the world you won the “operation”.
Biden whose intelligence service hasn’t failed him yet has indicated this is going to go on for a long while.
No one can take away the guilt that weighs on democratic loving people as they carry on with their daily lives as Ukraine battles for their democracy. Fareed Zaharia has argued if Ukraine loses so does world democracy.
Francis Fukuyama, the famed American political scientist, has articulated that Ukraine’s fight for democracy will reverse the world’s trend for populism and autocracy.
Some analysts doubt if Putin is going to be able to even put troops in Kiev and Odessa.
There is little doubt that the overwhelming majority of the world is behind Zelensky and “We are all Ukrainians” In Zelensky’s words, “The Ukrainian people are defending not only Ukraine; we are fighting for the values of Europe and the world”.
At the end of this day no one knows how this is going to end.
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