As Putin ratchets up the ante, changes his narrative, and acts more and more irrationally, his undisciplined incompetent armed forces are making a bizarre hash of their objective. As the atrocities pile up the West has to face up to the reality that sooner or later they might have to take him on. The only other alternatives are that he is subjected to a coup, or even less likely Ukraine cause the Russian forces to retreat. There is one other shot and that is to cut off the revenues from oil and gas which is Russia’s last economic lifetime. The latter would cause much world wide pain. Notwithstanding the obvious political downside President Biden has been visiting the possibility of US not purchasing Russian oil. These options are only possible because of the leadership of the Ukrainian leader Zelensky whom the prestigious New Yorker magazine has called the current Winston Churchill.
In the meantime chasing after oligarchs’ yachts when a devastating nuclear explosion may well be in the offing, children’s cancer hospitals are being bombed and millions are fleeing Ukraine is not providing any comfort for the beleaguered Ukrainians, Zelensky has urged that the surest way to help would be to create a no fly zone over Ukraine. That would mean NATO engaging with Russia. This is the one option that is off the table for NATO and the EU.
Biden has made it quite clear that should Putin show any aggression to a NATO country it will be World War 111. To the concerned citizens of the world, as opposed to their governments, the distinction between a genocidal attack on Ukraine, a wannabe NATO nation and an actual NATO country is hard to fathom. If war with Putin is inevitable there would be no better time than now. Obviously those with streams of intelligence and the responsibility of decision making are best placed to decide. Americans and the world can breathe a sigh of relief that it is Biden that is leading the charge in this crisis and not Trump who would probably want an investigation into Hunter Biden before delivering the support that Ukraine needs to defend itself against his friend, “the genius” Putin.
HOW PUTIN GOT TO WHERE HE IS NOW TEN DAYS INTO THE "MILITARY OPERATION"
As Jay H. Ell has blogged Putin believed that this was the most advantageous time to restore Russia’s former glory, (“Putin Will He Or Won’t He - He Won’t Because Trump Has Gone” and “Unhinged Putin - Make Russia Great Again”). Putin misread the situation completely, particularly the leadership of President Biden and Premier Zelensky. The latter he regarded as a joke and he believed Biden was weakened by his ally Trump who was leader of the Republican Party. So all that the Russian Premier anticipated was a weak America, an ineffectual NATO and a disintegrating Europe who collectively would put in token sanctions. It is history that he underestimated Biden’s ability to get the West in line and that his assessment of Zelensky was wishful thinking.
The intelligence Putin received was either atrocious or alternatively, he, like Hitler in the bunker when confronted with the reality of what has happening on the ground responded, “Don’t bring me defeatist statistics”. Plan A was that the overwhelming force he massed on the Ukrainian border together with the nuclear exercises would scare Zelensky into folding his hand and sue for peace whereupon he would install a puppet regime and that would be that. Zelensky did not oblige. In fact he pretended to believe Putin’s narrative that he was not going to invade. Putin thus moved to Plan B
Plan B entailed a blitzkrieg operation where he would attack Ukraine from three sides of the compass and in three days he would have seized the capitol Kiev. His army would be welcomed by the Ukrainian Russians who would be finally liberated from the Ukrainian yoke. Putin had forgotten that thirty years ago Ukraine had a ninety percent vote in favor of independence while Zelensky was swept into power in 2019 with seventy - five percent of the vote. So after three days when the food and fuel ran out he was absolutely nowhere near Kiev and enforcing Plan B. In addition Biden had spent the previous months getting his NATO and EU ducks in a row as well as igniting sanctions that knocked Putin's plans out of the park. So Plan B morphed into Plan C.
Plan C was all out war that had worked in Chechnia and Aleppo when the West were hardly even covering the news as it would get viewers grabbing for their remotes. This would be unashamed carpet bombing concentrating on the schools, the hospitals and flattening the country so as to knock the morale out of the population. His sheer fire power and numbers had to ensure victory. However there was no control over the troops, a large number of which didn’t even know they were going to war. Some even deserted. Putin would have been better advised to pay attention to the Afghanistan precedent where the USSR had been routed. This led to the breaking up of the Soviet Empire which Putin was trying, like Humpty Dumpty, to put it together again.
His convoy from Belarus from the North which is forty miles long could not proceed for a host of reasons not the least of which was lack of fuel, provisions and break down of antiquated equipment. As matters stand the facts relating to this column are shrouded in mystery. The snow is thick there and trees surround the road. All adding up to the fact that Zelensky’s team could pick them off one at a time. Perhaps there is too much air cover to effect this, The anti tank and anti aircraft weaponry that the Ukrainians now possess is ideal for the task. One fact is for certain the Russians are not motionless by choice the Ukrainians claiming that they are inflicting losses on this ponderous war machine.
So as matters stand Putin is steam rolling from the South with colossal losses and has one town, Kershon, to show for his troubles. It is estimated that his armed forces have been degraded by at least five percent which represents seven thousand troops dead. In fact that is about the number the Ukrainians have reported that have been killed. There appears to be no discipline or coordination as witnessed by the stupidity of nearly creating a nuclear disaster that would have wiped out Eastern Europe and Western Russia. It took hours to get the message that they better let the firefighters in to put out the flames. The major success Putin can reassure himself with is that he is killing civilians. He, Jay H. Ell supposes, can sleep well at night that his army outnumbers and outguns Zelensky’s forces and that he has to win in the end, whatever winning means.
Putin has no Plan D on how to fight off the insurgency that follows if he is indeed able to finally occupy Ukraine. Nor on how to hold the cities in the South so he can move onto Kiev.
WHAT PUTIN IS FACING IN THE WORLD AS MARCH 6 BECKONS
The fall of the Cold War’s other super power could not have been more vividly portrayed as it was in the result of the UNO General Assembly vote where Russia was condemned for its attack on Ukraine and “ordered” to withdraw all its troops immediately. Voting against the resolution were only four other countries - Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea and Syria. China abstained as did India as did Russian allies such as Cuba and Nicaragua. United Arab Emirates voted against Russia having abstained the day before in the Security Council. When Hungary and Poland vigorously oppose Russia autocracy and aggression, Putin has to know he is on his own. So the mighty former world super power has been reduced to four rogue allies.
China’s abstention was accompanied by calling the scenes in Ukraine “heart wrenching” and the Chinese representative reiterated Beijing’s policy for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries. Together with the Chinese Foreign Minister’s telephone call to his Ukrainian counterpart, China made clear which side of the fence they were falling onto. Added to this abandonment Putin also had to have pondered what had happened to his partners in OPEC. Saudi Arabia who had to date not condemned Russia also voted for the strong resolution. (It has been reported that the Biden administration was working hard with the OPEC countries to jack their production up and abandon their newest best friend in OPEC, Russia).
So with almost unanimous support for sanctions and help for Ukraine which included Switzerland historically breaking their neutrality, Germany sending weapons and doubling their defense budget and the South East Asian countries joining in, Putin has every right to feel that the whole world is against him. He now faces stronger and more united EU and NATO. There is also an ominous commitment to go to war with him if he makes any aggressive moves against any NATO country. Against NATO his underperforming army would face two million troops.
WHAT PUTIN IS FACING IN RUSSIA AS MARCH 6 BECKONS
Biden robbed Putin of any pretense in the real world that Ukraine had provoked the war by daily broadcasting intelligence that Russia was about to attack. Putin denied the latter to the world and to Russia. Hence he had to give good reason to his electorate as to why he was launching a “military operation”into brother Ukraine. He argued that the Russians in Ukraine, which really belonged to Russia, were being trodden on by an illegitimate Neo Nazi government all of whom were drug addicts. He declared that this was a military operation and not an invasion or a war. It was a criminal offense to label it the latter. His “”operation” was proceeded by televising his declaration of two Eastern Ukrainian provinces, Donesk and Luhansk, as independent states. There were also similar theatrical productions where Department Heads were called upon one by one to support his peace keeping forces to these areas and his “operation”. All these incidents looked like comic skits. The giant rooms were so gaudy that they made Mar - o - Largo appear to be the epitome of good taste.
Then there were the Russian protests which have not subsided but to date have not been overwhelming. However the fact that the military have been reported firing on them just shows how edgy Putin is to keep Russians in line. There was the banning of the spectrum of media that even slightly deviated from the Party Line. Jay H. Ell cannot believe that the Russians don’t know that something is amiss when lifelong penalties are threatened for demonstrations and the anemic opposition is silenced. But the conventional wisdom is that the older Russians have swallowed the “neo Nazi” bit and the younger one’s haven’t. In case the older one’s need convincing the devaluation of the ruble to less than a cent, the cost of living and interest rate shooting up and the long lines to obtain a few dollars from ATMs surely must tweak their thought processes. Maybe some - one will ask why their Mastercards and Visa’s don’t work and Western companies have closed down their operations?
What will really shock the Russians are the body bags. Putin now admits to nearly five hundred killed plus well over a thousand injured in his “operation”. He has promised the widows sixty - five thousand dollars and forty thousand dollars to the families of wounded soldiers. Note the pay out is in dollars not rubles! And the world has to believe that the Russian are swallowing all his garbage.
Nobody knows what is going on behind the scenes in Russia but Putin is so isolated neither can he. Some of those guys have to be talking to one another…. If they aren’t you can’t hide body bags and if Putin remembers that is what got his glorious USSR decimated in the first place.
BIDEN AND THE LOCAL POLITICAL SCENE
BIden took a colossal risk in a political climate where he was being pilloried by the Republicans and his approval was at an all time low. However he has rallied the country behind him. Eighty percent of the Republicans back his decisions on the war. His State of the Union address where he outlined his Ukrainian initiatives received standing ovations from both sides of the Chamber. A zoom meeting that Zelensky had with US Congress people on March 5 reinforced bipartisan support and could lead to him obtaining airplanes and up to ten billion dollars more in aid.
Trump and his Fox echo chamber with their support of Putin and the Russians have been made to look ridiculous. Trump in an under reported speech at the CPAC conference condemned the invasion and applauded the Ukrainian resistance, while still acknowledging his admiration for good old Vladimir. Apparently nobody believes him or cares. However at another Conservative Party Action Committee meeting, where the Majorie Taylor Greenes of this world were featured, Putin and Russia were lionized. The audience shouted “Putin, Putin”. It is a sad state of affairs that this section of the “Republicans” believe the real enemy is Biden and the real ally is Putin. Former Republican Vice President Mike Pence riding the current sentiment of the majority of the “Republicans” has stated that there is no room in the Party for “Putin apologists”. One fact is for sure the six percent of Americans who approve of Putin are well represented on Fox News and are the tail that wags the “Republican Party”.
Biden will do everything he can to see that his efforts don’t worsen the current inflation but he has warned that the citizenry might have to share the burden in the fight for freedom.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The.ball is in Putin’s court. He still can do a deal with Zelensky who will probably give him his separatist states or something so he can declare victory while sitting at his tatty white long table with its Trump colored gold stripes. In the lunatic asylum that is the Russian Duma they have legislated that if you call the “operation” a war or an invasion you can go to jail for fifteen years. So the option fro negotiation is remote as Putin seems to be resolved to live or die for his “operation”. The Israeli Prime Minister followed a procession of world leaders who have tried to negotiate peace.
Three current number ones : Icon for freedom - Zelensky; Leader of the Free World - Biden and Pariah of the Universe - Putin.
If the Russian forty mile column to the North of Kiev is demolished those Russians battling in the South can go home. They can ask Putin what Plan E is.
Zelensky is understandably furious. He believes that the time has come to declare Ukraine a no fly zone. He and his people have fought the good fight and resentment is boiling over that the Ukrainians have to bear the brunt of holding up the free world. He has to be of the opinion that “they” need to finish Putin off.
Zelensky obviously reckons war with Putin is inevitable. NATO obviously has intelligence that the “genius” Putin’s Plan F involves nuclear weapons. (He has as much said so). In this situation, as painful as it is to watch Ukraine shoulder this battle on their own, one has to bow to Biden’s experience, savvy and intelligence and accept his and his military brass’s decision. NATO nations leadership and intelligence are ad idem on a no fly zone.
Biden is the genius not Putin or Trump. Putin would like nothing more than to announce to the Russians that the Ukrainian “operation” was to prevent the real aggressors, NATO, from invading Russia.
The feeling of helplessness continues as the world stands by and watches the sadistic, sociopathic bully practice genocide and firing on women and children refugees……
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