IS KETANJE BROWN JACKSON A REAL AMERICAN?

Last week’s Senate Judicial hearing as to whether to put forward Ketanje Brown Jackson’s nomination for the Supreme Court’s was desecrated by the “Republican”  Senators who decided to use the opportunity to punt their policy on the culture wars, which would return America back to being “Great Again”. For the uninitiated this was the first salvo for the “Republican” Primaries for the upcoming 2022 and 2024 elections. The zealous senators are ignoring leader McConnell’s exhortation to have no electoral policy and merely run against Joe Biden’s record. While the de facto “Republican” leader Trump, who is way ahead in the polls as the 2024 candidate to oppose Joe Biden, has abandoned his original MAGA mantra in favor of campaigning that the 2020 election was stolen from him and that he was smeared that Russia supported his election effort in 2016. However the “Republican” legislators are sticking to what worked for Trump in 2016 - Keep America White. The “Republican” dominated State legislatures have already enacted Voter Suppression legislation designed to make it far more difficult for those whose skins aren’t white to vote. The Republican Senators used the African American Female Supreme Court nomination process as a proxy to continue their fight. 

JUDGE JACKSON’S IMPECCABLE CREDENTIALS

The fifty one year old African woman jurist according to the American Bar Association, (ABA), is a “Great Jurist Without Any Biases”. This finding was derived at after interviewing nearly three hundred judges, lawyers including prosecutors, police associations and other individuals that interacted with her and following an exhaustive review of her writings and judgements. This is the highest ranking the ABA awards to a prospective appointment to the Federal Court. However, Judge Jackson’s “Republican”tormentors on the Judicial Committee didn’t even pitch up to hear or question the ABA on their decision making process. The latter facts alone belie any respectability this disgrace to American democracy led by Messers Graham, Cruz and Hawley demonstrated in their opposition to Jackson’s nomination. 

Anyone who has read anyone of Judge Jackson’s five hundred and seventy six decisions would be impressed with her knowledge of the law and the Constitution. One of her recent opinions, was a hundred and thirty eight page carefully reasoned ruling which the Supreme Court immediately adopted by eight votes to one without hearing any further argument. Jackson ruled that Donald Trump’s White House documents be released to the January 6 Investigative Committee. The only vote against the prompt Supreme Court confirmation was that of Justice Thomas and that is a story for another day.

ORIGINALIST INTERPRETATION OF THE CONSTITUTION

All this begs the question as to whether the disgusting irreverent attack on the nominee was because she is an African American Woman. The whole sickening process was also utilized by “Republican” members to make it quite clear that they supported Judicial Originalists - those that interpreted the Constitution as the Founders’ wrote it. It bears repeating that the Founders were all white male Christians, mostly slave owners, who gave the franchise to only white men. The "Republicans", the inheritors of these privileged white men, whose MAGA philosophy was being perpetrated are also ensuring that those of color would find it difficult to vote. Lindsey Graham had sounded off previously that he was ok with black conservatives. In fact the other Senator from South Carolina is African American. However this show of “tolerance” doesn’t much impress Jay H. Ell because the apartheid government in South Africa exercised the same paternalistic acceptance towards Africans who believed in apartheid. The strongest Originalist on the Supreme Court is Justice Thomas whom the Founders would not even have afforded a vote, let alone sanction his inter racial marriage. Incidentally a vocal Originalist on the Senate Marsha Blackburn as a woman was not thought qualified enough by the Founders for the franchise either. 

“THIS AFRICAN AMERICAN WOMAN IS SOFT ON PORNOGRAPHY, GENDER DEVIANTS AND WANTS TO MAKE WHITE CHILDREN FEEL GUILTY THAT THEY ARE WHITE”

The cultural agenda that the “Republicans” want to run on was reinforced by the questioning but mostly speeches at the hearing. The aim was to define who is a real American and the values they should hold.  The not so subtle smear was that she was weak on crime, immoral as her leniency towards purveyors of pornography indicated and supportive of the LGBT group rather than traditional family values. The questions were not directed to her vast mastery of the constitution and whether her resume warranted her being put on the highest court.

 The hypocrites on the Judicial Committee became the arbiters of public morality. All of this lot supported Trump, who besides his broadcast opinions on tape as to what he does to those whom Marsha Blackburn would recognize as women, as well as the fact that he has credible accusations of sexual harassment including rape by twenty six woman. Brett Kavanaugh’s behavior too was defended vigorously by those who were impugning the moral character of the nominee.

A great deal of fuss was made about the fact that Judge Jackson refused to define who was a woman. The pathetic trick question was to get the Judge caught up in the latest tussle about transgender children participating in sport. Senator Blackburn, an obvious woman, knew the Founders did not forbid transgender children from participating in sport just like they didn’t decide the right to an abortion either. Judge Jackson.tried to explain that in her role as a Judge she decides on conflicting opinions not define theoretical abstract standards. In addition her personal views were irrelevant in ruling in disputes. 

That dynamo of intellect Ted Cruz then proved that he doesn’t only read comic books but children’s books as well. The point of it all was did the candidate believe babies could be racists. In addition why did Judge Jackson sit on a school board that had a curriculum that made white children feel guilty because they were white. It was an attack on Critical Race Theory, which of course was an obvious deliberate omission in the Constitution even though they had, for census purposes regarded slaves as two thirds of a person. While again the future Justice had no control of what was taught school children Senator Cruz did - he has sent his daughters to a private school that includes in its curriculum education the history of racism in America. To get back to the Originalist interpretation of the Constitution which guarantees  Freedom of Religious belief which shows up Lindsey Graham’s prejudice in questioning Judge Jackson as to her religious beliefs and the strength of them.

 

Jay H. Ell could go on and on but he is sure you get his drift even if you missed the hearings. Mercifully other than Hannity who played the choice pieces nobody took too much notice of the grandstanding of the Republicans though in fairness Senator Sasse apologized for the behavior of his colleagues. 

THE PUBLIC IMPACT OF HEAD OF THE DC CIRCUIT COURT KETANJE BROWN JACKSON

Not since the nomination of Chief Justice Roberts has there been such a positive rating in the polls of a Supreme Court nominee. Her poise, breadth of knowledge, humanity, politeness and respect in the face of outright rudeness and purposeful misunderstanding of the role of a judge have not only won her the admiration of the watching public but their support. The polls all give her well over fifty percent positivity and round about twenty - five percent disapproval resulting in a nearly thirty percent net popularity rating.. The only judge close to that on this bench was Justice Thomas who had over thirty percent positivity. (Guess what, that is about to collapse if it hasn’t already). Since 2005 the average positive rating has been ten. So in this day and age of polarization the empathetic and authentic Ketanje Jackson is a breath of fresh air. This of course will not translate into Republican Senate support where if she is fortunate she will gain three Republican votes.

THE BASIS FOR THE MISPERCEPTION FOR THE THREAT TO THE REAL WHITE AMERICANS

In 2012 Mitt Romney had lost to Barack Obama and the demographic data indicated that by 2050 the Whites would no longer in the majority in the USA. Reince Priebus, the then Chairperson of the then Republican National Committee, commissioned a report whose objective and conclusion was to attract minorities to the Republican Party. Donald Trump changed that all by galloping away with the Party nomination in 2016 and then going on to win the Presidency. Trading on a racist grievance mantra while railing against the white elites of both parties he hijacked the Republican Party into an autocratic  racist Party with a thinly disguised objective to keep America white and Christian with old American family and cultural values. He appealed to the lowest common denominator in society as well as those who had suffered financial loss in the era of globalization and digitalization. The latter were said to be losing out to the college educated elites of both parties, who were favoring the minorities, and LBGT groups. This group were under the impression that  society was economically dominated by non Christian Jews and threatened by non Christian Muslims. Aided by social media and even more importantly Fox News the biases and prejudices were magnified to the point that Trumpism became the dominant philosophy of the former Republican Party. The new prevailing attitude could be summed up when Bill O’Reilly, then the Tucker Carlson of Fox News, told Barack Obama that he was the privileged one and he, O’Reilly, was the disadvantaged American -  the victim.

To show the extent of the current paranoia, the perceptions of Americans as to the percentage of various groups in America as opposed to the reality are revealing. A survey of American adults by YouGov tells it all. The following groups were estimated to be twenty - five percent of the population when in reality they represent about two percent: Jews, Muslims, transgenders, gays and lesbians, bisexuals and atheists, The estimated number of blacks and Hispanics was well over thirty percent when the former are about twelve percent and the latter eighteen percent. There was a similar distortion of the number of first degree immigrants. Needless to say they underestimated the number of whites and Christians albeit by not such gigantic margins. 

When it is realized that the Trump dominated wing of the party are running on a distortion of reality, the disgraceful attacks of an elite African American Harvard Graduate  whose only saving grace is that she is Christian are not only comprehensible but to be expected. So the smear that she supports the perverts, who are overtaking our society, making us whites feel guilty and are trying to educate our children to be ashamed that they are not black, becomes more and more understandable. 

By the current “Republican” viewpoint Judge Jackson is not a real American.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The “Republicans” are going to be running on three approaches in 2022 and 2024, “Trumpism” per se, just attacking Biden’s record and then Trump and his acolytes will be arguing that the Russians didn’t help him win in 2016 and that he won on his own in 2020. In reality the electorate might vote for them all because of inflation. 

The Supreme Court will be graced by the presence of a great jurist in the person of Ketanje Brown Jackson. Meanwhile the Roberts' Court, which has its lowest rating in decades, faces its response to the impeachable behavior of the Originalist, Justice Thomas.

AT THE END OF THE OTHER DAY

Just as a final thought, why is everyone getting their knickers in a knot because President  Biden called for regime change from “the butcher” Vladimir Putin? The latter after all had as his original objective to remove Zelensky and his government. In addition Putin was responsible for regime change in America by the election of Trump and failed in his effort to prevent the Biden regime. What is more he sent assassination teams to kill Zelensky to effect a change of power. 

Now Putin is the big victim. Even Trump wants to nuke him.  

Biden only hopes, “in G-d’s name”, that Putin should retire to one of his castles or take a life long world cruise on his yacht. The USA State apartment should stop apologizing for Biden’s call for Putin’s exit because he is sticking to his guns. What this whole episode does indicate is the herculean effort Biden has made and has to continue to pursue to maintain allied unity. 

“WE ALL ARE UKRAINIANS”

In the past few days there has been a ramping up of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. The Russian troops are nowhere near their objective of taking Kiev, the Ukrainians arguing that they have even forced them back from the suburbs of their capitol.The fifth Russian General has been killed in action. Russia’s response has to up their raining down of missiles and bombs, even to the extent of upping the ante dramatically by using hypersonic missiles. They still have not control of the air and most of the destruction is being launched from either from the border, or Belarus. In addition Putin, sweating the failure in over three weeks to achieve his objectives held a rally where  he argued that this was a holy war of redemption and elimination of the neo Nazis of Ukraine. Biden got nowhere, for the moment, with Xi of China, who is figuring a response to his desperate newest best friend for food and guns. China however has everything to lose and Xi is as sociopathic as Putin. His trade with Europe and America is one and a half trillion dollars and with Russia a hundred and fifty million. Not a difficult calculation for the Chinese autocrat.

The overwhelming majority of the world are watching with horror the slaughter of civilians including children. Biden has skillfully created an international coalition but has balked at supplying Ukraine with aircraft and creating a no fly zone. He needs however to find a way to at least deliver S - 300 missiles which could take out the Russia’s only effective weapon  - lobbing murder and destruction from outside of Ukraine. So where are we now in what is turning out to be a battle between good and evil and democracy and autocracy?

WHERE WE ARE NOW

The world, particularly the “North Atlantics” as the late Lady Barbara Jackson used to call the coalition of North America and Western Europe,” have identified with the Ukrainian bravery, resilience, determination and fighting to the death for democracy. The surrounding semi circle of former USSR countries, now mostly NATO members, are in particular solidarity having joined the struggle of the embattled Ukraine, providing military assistance and a safe haven for the three and a half million  women and children who have escaped the barbarism of Putin’s onslaught. No countries know better the brutal yoke of Russian totalitarianism than the former members of the USSR. The common cause for democracy and the right of countries to decide their own destiny is refreshing in an age where inward looking nationalism seemed the order of the day. 

Overhanging the support for Ukraine is guilt and shame by the democratic peoples of the world that the battle for democracy has been left to the Ukrainians who are being pounded to pulp. There is also a sense of helplessness as everyone stands by, doing very little compared to the sacrifices being made by the Ukrainians.  In truth nations’ hands are tied because the Russian bully has nuclear weapons which he has threatened to use should  the troops in the field become global. Nevertheless Biden has united the most of the world in enforcing crippling economic sanctions, providing arms that can wipe out tanks, armed vehicles and even fighter planes. Putin reeling from the devastating outcome of his “special military operation” has appealed to his newest friend XI, who while not condemning his invasion, has called for peace and overtly provided nothing. 

This war, unlike any other is being captured live by the electronic media and the ability of every citizen with a phone to record every sickening moment. The iconic video of a mother and children been liquidated by a Russian bomb and of a pregnant mother on a homemade stretcher being carried out of the bombed Maripol Women and Children’s Hospital are etched into the shocked world’s psyche. These scenes as well as the wanton carnage on medical facilities, warehouses and apartment buildings are juxtaposed with the lying Lavrov stating that the episodes were staged. For those not privy to the extent of the pouring in of weaponry and support to Ukraine the repeated words of support have to ring hollow reminding them of the refrain in the musical My Fair lady, “Words words words, I am so sick of words…”. Without the billions of dollars of armaments and supplies Putin may well have achieved his dream by now.

So every daily action is overhung by the ongoings in Ukraine. It is impossible to eliminate from consciousness the burning apartment buildings and the knowledge that at least a hundred children that have been killed. The daily renderings of never ending streams of refugees with mothers clinging to their children some of whom are old enough to be terrified and others who are young enough to be oblivious to the fact that life will never be the same and that they may never see their fathers again.

It was against this background that the democratic world, led by the American President Joe Biden responded to the Ukrainian heroism, having originally banked on supporting a guerrilla war in Kiev, rather than a full blown battle across the whole country. (Blog: Zelensky’s Ukraine - Putin and Biden’s Miscalculations”).

BIDEN’S FINEST HOUR WITH FREEDOM ICON ZELENSKY AS HIS FOIL

Biden has galvanized a planet that was slowly but surely sinking into an autocratic populist quagmire to fight for the cause of democracy. In so doing he had to tread a careful line so as not to precipitate World War Three.

 Biden has been more than mindful that his strength could be sapped if he didn’t have America behind him. When the Russian invasion begun three weeks ago one in four Americans backed a “no fly zone” now three in four do, even though they don’t understand that that means troops on the ground which they are overwhelmingly against. Biden’s immediate support for the Ukrainians set off the Trump faction who thought  it was politically savvy to openly back Putin, “the genius”. Senate Republican leader, McConnell, was more subtle hinting that Biden’s inglorious exit from Afghanistan must have been part of Putin’s calculation. Now that is all changed, a bipartisan act of Congress to grant Ukraine  thirteen billion dollars having already been signed into law. Trump’s sidekick deluxe Lindsey Graham proposed a resolution that was passed unanimously that Putin be charged as a war criminal. And on top of that thirty Republican Senators are saying Biden must do more.

Volodymyr  Zelensky, the Churchillian icon for freedom addressed Congress for the second time. As with his initial intervention to Congress and those in the UK, Germany,Israel and Canada he was greeted with standing ovations. At all his appearances he was thankful for the help but laid a guilt trip that it wasn’t enough. His skillfully crafted speeches featured allusions to the specific countries crises which had or could threaten their existence. He hammered home that he needed a no fly zone while leaving room to be provided with the wherewithal to take out the missile and armory stations that were indiscriminately bombing his country.

 Zelensky’s encore performance at the Capitol begs two questions- Why was Zelensky invited back and why is he making “the no fly zone” central to his survival?  His latter demand has no bipartisan or NATO support with good reason - most of the carnage coming from the sky is from batteries either from the Eastern part of Ukraine or Belarus and creating a no fly zone could well result in World War Three. The Democrats control Congress so the invite had to come from them and  Biden had to have agreed to it. So why would the POTUS want to set himself up to be criticized? He could expect the passionate heroic communicator to emphasize that it was a fight just as much for American democracy as it was for Ukrainian freedom. The Ukrainian President as he has done elsewhere peppered his inspirational oration with American allusions - we are after all “All Ukrainians”. Biden could go have gone forward without setting himself up for criticism and demands from the Republicans to do more.

Biden followed Zelensky with a stirring answer of his own promising another eight hundred million dollars. To the military cognoscenti the brief outline of the weaponry to be advanced indicated that there was the wherewithal to take on the Russian war machine in Ukraine. The other major take away Biden gleaned from Zelensky’s rah rah speech was that it gave him enough maneuverability to agree to any of the other NATO members who on their own might want to provide Zelensky with Soviet fighter planes or S- 300 missiles. Biden was personally attending the NATO meeting on March 23.

Helping Biden’s narrative is the fact that the media have non stop shown the Russian brutality on the one hand and the Ukrainian resilience and bravery on the other.

MEANWHILE BACK IN UKRAINE

Three and a half weeks into this aggression Russia have not much to show for their overwhelming fire power and military advantage. They have taken one city, Kershon, where they face daily demonstrations. They could not take Maripol so they have bombed it to ruble. (So much for taking cities and converting them with puppets to Russian enclaves), They have not achieved their objective of sealing Ukraine off from from the sea. Odessa remains almost as out of reach as is Kiev. The grand plan of the all conquering Russians with three military prongs from the South, North and the East blazing through the country and then taking Kiev appears unattainable at this rate.

Russian casualties have been estimated from anything from four hundred to seven hundred a day.Thus by day twenty - one the total estimated dead was between eight thousand four hundred to nearly fifteen thousand. This figure is humongous compared to the five soldiers a day they lost in Afghanistan. Zelensky claims to have shot down a hundred planes, even more helicopters and endless armed vehicles. The Russian troops are demoralized and there is no synchronization between air bombardment and troop movements. There are six hundred soldiers that are prisoners of war several of whom are cajoling their compatriots to call it quits. It is no wonder that the red on the map of Ukraine has remained static for three weeks. 

However the Ukrainian toll for these feats is heavy as the streams of refugees indicate, whether they are pictured receiving food at the border or gingerly crossing a river whose bridge has blown up to thwart the enemies progress. The burning buildings, the rubble of Ukrainian homes and institutions, the curfews, the sirens, the bloodied victims, the dead citizens in mass graves, the citizen forces with their range of weaponry standing next to makeshift blockades, the endless interviews of families cramped in basements having taken the decision to see this out in Ukraine and more and more, Illustrate the sacrifices being made for independence.  

MEANWHILE BACK IN RUSSIA

President Vladimir Putin still has the microphone having instituted draconian penalties for those even referring to his adventure as anything but a “special military operation”. None the less protests have taken place where fifteen thousand have been jailed. Dozens of journalists have been reported to have fled. The iconic protest by a Russian TV Producer in the number one TV propaganda channel certainly was a sensation outside of Russia but there is no way to measure its impact on its target audience.There have been open protest letters from thousands of signatories in the cultural and scientific communities. The statements by imprisoned opposition Navalny certainly are broadcast to the outside world. But the reports are that Putin is still firmly in control. However in a world that silence is safety who really knows what the situation is?

It boggles the mind that the majority of the Russian population cannot see the enormity of what has happened. Even they must reel at the draconian punishments that would be meted out if the special operation was labelled an invasion. Nearly every Western business has upped snd left. The extent of Western involvement in the Russian economy is evidence that Russia itself is far more Westernized than Putin would admit. Putin has now stated the obvious to his body politic, that they will be suffering. However he added, “This economic blitzkrieg from the West has failed”.  He asked the Russians to mobilize in order to overcome the difficulties related to the massive sanctions. Putin admitted that “..it was not easy for us now”. He compared the moves against Russia akin to the anti semitic attack by the fascists. He reassured that the “operation” was successful. His rationale for the “operation” was to prevent Ukraine from being used as a springboard for aggressive actions against Russia, He claimed at his rally that it was glorious to die for one’s friends. 

The fact that Putin had to give this apologia to the Russian public, has recruited Syrian mercenaries and has asked China for help is evidence enough that he is in deep trouble. Russia’s bonds have been designated junk status. His media censorship is working for any conventional platform, (Jay H. Ell used to get several hits for his blog in Russia and over the three week period they have been totally eliminated). 

Putin went ballistic in his most recent broadcast spewing out his rationale for clamping down on internal opposition to his special military operation, “The Russian people will always be able to distinguish between true patriots from scum and traitors and simply spit them out like a fly that accidentally flew into their mouth. I am convinced that such a natural and necessary self- purification of society, our solidarity cohesion and readiness to respond our country, our solidarity,”

Putin faces many internal challenges as outlined in the last blog, The Security Police have arrested several of the intelligence operators. (“Zelansky’s Ukraine - Putin and Biden’s Miscalculation”). However it has to be the body bag count that will be his downfall. In addition more and more are gaining internet information in one way or another. Apparently Arnold Schwarzenegger’s appeal to soldiers to desist has gone viral. Mothers, wives, siblings, relatives and friends have not heard from their sons for over six weeks and are at the end of their wits. Regardless whether they swallow Putin’s garbage they want to know what has happened to their loved ones. 

MEANWHILE BACK IN CHINA

China is between a rock and a hard place. They appeared to have recemented the Sino - Soviet love affair that broke up long before the USSR collapsed. However all they have in common is that Xi and Vlad are dictators and they both want chunks of land that they believe belong to the motherland. They also are terrified of their countries getting the democracy bug and thus share a hatred of the USA. China paradoxically has a policy of territorial integrity for nations. China in their clumsy balancing act have articulated the latter principle. 

China have voiced the need for peace and that they are deeply disturbed by the atrocities in Ukraine. Never the less they back Putin’s narrative that this is an “operation”. They are apparently mulling over whether to give their newest best friend military and financial help and are deeply put out by America’s warning to them that they could face consequences. Every indication points to them not meeting Russia’s need for economic and military assistance.  When push comes to shove China is not going to sacrifice the inroads it has made in world trade. If they send Russia ammunition and money they will join them as pariahs. Jay H. Ell is not an advisor to Xi so he will let him work this all out for himself. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Although there are peace negotiations going on and Zelensky has stated that he is not going to join NATO, it is hard to see the talks going anywhere. Putin would be toast if he has fifteen thousand dead for just retaining the status quo and Zelensky would be left with mass graves, rubble and a broken economy. Zelensky is going to need the big boys to negotiate for him. Russia are going to need reassurance that if and when they fold that the crippling sanctions will be withdrawn.

Biden has achieved his objective of uniting America behind him. With that in mind he can go to NATO and the EU with a free hand.

Sooner or later “The Republicans” will jump the bipartisan ship and blame Biden for the war or not doing enough or too much or whatever.

America is going to have to leave Fox’s Tucker Carlson, who gets more coverage in Moscow than in America, to Rupert Murdoch. Carlson is as infamous as Father Coughlin and the British Lord Haw Haw both who broadcast Nazi propaganda. If the American advertisers finally boycott his show Murdoch can easily get Russian commercial entities to advertise, But as the victim Tucker wails, “Putin has never called him a racist” or “Think why you don’t like Putin?”. 

Trump has been strangely quiet this week as he has come to the realization that Putin maybe a loser too. His advice to Putin is, regardless of outcome, to tell the world you won the “operation”. 

Biden whose intelligence service hasn’t failed him yet has indicated this is going to go on for a long while.

No one can take away the guilt that weighs on democratic loving people as they carry on with their daily lives as Ukraine battles for their democracy. Fareed Zaharia has argued if Ukraine loses so does world democracy. 

Francis Fukuyama, the famed American political scientist, has articulated that Ukraine’s fight for democracy will reverse the world’s trend for populism and autocracy. 

Some analysts doubt if Putin is going to be able to even put troops in Kiev and Odessa.

There is little doubt that the overwhelming majority of the world is behind Zelensky and “We are all Ukrainians” In Zelensky’s words, “The Ukrainian people are defending not only Ukraine; we are fighting for the values of Europe and the world”. 

At the end of this day no one knows how this is going to end. 

ZELENSKY’S UKRAINE - PUTIN AND BIDEN’S MISCALCULATIONS

 

The question of how the Ukrainian war might end as well as the role NATO and more specifically the USA may play is coming more and more into focus as Putin exponentially increases his indiscriminate bombing of civilians their homes and institutions.  One consensus is that it becomes more and more obvious that sooner or later Putin’s army is about to suffer a defeat akin to the humiliating failure in Afghanistan. Another consensus is that the sociopathic Putin will never surrender! This latter fact is born out by the ridiculous “negotiations” between the two country’s foreign ministers where Putin’s terms were that Zelansky surrender.  

All this is playing out to the background that Putin is planning chemical warfare and Biden has intelligence, as to what will trigger a Russian  nuclear response, namely the Americans creating a fly free zone. So far Biden has not declared a red line where he would get involved. Biden’s objective to reassure Putin that he is not involved in a war against him has taken a hit with the Russian establishment claiming that the economic moves constitute a war. 

At present the Russian forces have not taken much of Ukraine’s territory.  The Russians have depended on long range missiles and the “successes” have been mainly in the South where his troops have been occupied for over two weeks. The plan is to siege the towns which means the troops from the South cannot join in the Kiev fight. The big fight in the South is take Maripol which has put up massive resistance and are withstanding the siege, So far only one town Kershov is under Russian control. But the damage has been humungous. Putin’s much vaunted military attack on Kiev from the North has hardly moved an inch and they are now dispersing with a view to surrounding Kiev.  The Ukrainians maintain that the dispersion is to hide from their attacks. There are estimated to be up to at least thirteen hundred dead civilians including children, The Russian response has been they are not at war with Ukraine while at the same time they are not targeting civilians! 

 Putin, a student of history, is trying to reverse the disintegration of the USSR that the Afghanistan catastrophe engendered. He has never come to terms with that shattering outcome and in his recounting of Russian infallibility blamed the West for the dissolution of the Russian Empire. Key to the rebuilding of the USSR is the amalgamation of Ukraine which is larger than France, where Russian is widely spoken and the Greek Orthodox Church dominates. Culturally and historically it belongs to Putin’s Russia he feels. The population of over forty million is about thirty percent of Russia’s itself. 

On March 7 the London Mirror estimated that Russia had already lost eleven thousand troops, forty - four war planes and a similar number of helicopters,, three hundred and eighty - five tanks, one thousand armored vehicles and one hundred and nine artillery systems. The figure that Putin has to worry about is those in coffins or body bags. If the Mirror is right they have sustained as many casualties in the years long Afghanistan war, 

PUTIN’S TIME PRESSURE

The official line is Putin has time on his side. Putin, however, has to be under time pressure. His country has been brought to its knees by the economic sanctions imposed upon it by virtually the whole world, by the exiting of almost all foreign businesses, the nobbling of his commercial air power even within the country and its isolation from the world in every conceivable area of activity. The currency is useless, inflation and interest rates are sky high while their stock exchange has been closed for over two weeks. Over fifteen thousand protestors have been arrested not cowered by the draconian sentences introduced for this behavior. There have been six thousand calls to the Ukrainian hot line from Russian relatives enquiring as to the whereabouts of their sons/brothers/husbands. The Ukrainians estimate is that they there are fifteen thousand dead soldiers. Sooner or later, if Putin has nothing to show for this toll, which has to be increasing by the minute, it will end his reign one way or another. In all this his nuclear arsenal hangs over the unfolding tragedy like a mushroom cloud. In fact the potential threat is so ominous that it has cowered  NATO to publicly frame their actions to avoid direct confrontation with Russia.t

WHERE PUTIN IS NOW

As Putin’s inhumanity drags on it is the first war that is.being witnessed in living rooms around the world as it tragically unfolds. The revelations of the atrocities on civilians and the wholesale slaughter of women and children and the institutions such as hospitals, schools and kindergartens are the media’s lead story in the West. This has led to the “free’ world uniting in a fashion not witnessed since the Second World War. The  shocked citizenry has even led authoritarian countries such as Hungary, Turkey and Poland to declare that they are solidly behind Volodymyr’s Zelensky’s Churchillian determination to hold on to democracy.  

Vladimir Putin has made miscalculation after miscalculation using as a mantra that Ukraine is not a country, that the Russians in that “non country” were being suppressed by a neo Nazi Government who were all drug addicts. His ill prepared and underfed army who when given the order to invade had already been hanging around in freezing weather for weeks on the Ukrainian border. This while Putin lied to the world that he wouldn’t invade. Putin in truth was hoping that the television comedian Zelensky would fold and surrender before he fired a shot, that the war weary Biden, facing a resurgent Trump, would introduce a few token sanctions and the disunified and inward looking members of NATO and the EU would just make disapproving noises. Like everything else he misread Biden big time, who if Zelansky is this millennium’s symbol for freedom, Biden is its statesman. 

WHAT WILL PUTIN DO?

The good news for the Russian dictator is that with the news block his propaganda is still working with the elderly. There is a campaign in Ukraine for the eleven million citizens that have relatives in Russia to keep calling them to disabuse them of the Russian propaganda. 

Putin has a number of options, none of them  good. The conventional wisdom is that he will double down which was the diplomatic message at the Turkey meeting.  Both the CIA Director and the Director of National Intelligence maintained, when addressing legislative forums, were of that opinion. The CIA Director reported that Putin was “angry” and that he cannot “allow himself to lose”. With the casualties mounting and his army nowhere remotely having taken Kiev let alone holding it, Putin has to soldier on mainly with his long range armory. All his options include adding nuclear and or chemical warfare. 

Putin is dealing with demoralized troops with now three Generals wiped out. There is a daily procession on Ukrainian TV of captured Russian soldiers detailing how they have been misled and imploring their colleagues to desert. This  must sooner or later, be circulated on Russian clandestine social networks. 

 There is of course the option to bring in more forces. This obviously is not on as the current force was not entirely made up of conventional troops several being policeman and many being rookie conscripts for example. It has been reliably reported that he is trying to recruit Syrians to join the battle. 

The most likely outcome is that Putin will plod on till he is either stopped in the Russian streets, or is subject to a coup. Putin is out of touch with even the reality of what could be going on his own office. There have been two public TV displays of the Russian leader’s disdain for his cabinet and department heads. It is reported that he often does not come into his office. Now of course he has to have his informers. But they must be evident to potential plotters. Putin is no more immune from this type of attack than Hitler was. The latter was in regular contact with his sycophantic heads. Now even though Putin has purged anyone perceived not to be a hundred percent loyal there are those in all arenas whose agenda he is wrecking. 

Several oligarchs have outright verbalized their opposition. Their ties to Putin have become unfastened with the impounding of their assets. Mikhail Fridman was the first to speak out against the war. Another, Mordashov, distanced himself from the “operation”. Oleg Deripaska, of Trump election fame, opined that “negotiations” must begin immediately, while Oleg Timkov has maintained that “this” was “unacceptable and unthinkable”. Vladimir Putatin yet another Russian oligarch has warned that if Putin nationalizes foreign businesses he will take the country back to 1917. 

The oligarchs are supported by other high profile figures in Russia in literary and cultural figures. A former military General had cautioned against Putin’s move as the troops languished in Belarus. Retired General Leonard Ishavov who is head of all Russia’s Officers’ Assembly who he claims are behind him, called for Putins resignation.

However what Putin must be fearing most be from the current security and military cabinet members, The Washington Post named two, Nikolai Patrushev ,secretary of the Russian Security Council and Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the Federal Security Service as well as other current and former senior security officials. Between them they are in direct control of hundreds of thousands of armed personnel and law enforcement authorities. Putin has axed eight Generals as a result of the Ukrainian calamity. So the internal enemies have to be building up. It is hard to believe that discussions aren’t taking place around water coolers.

Finally, there are the streets and the protestors and Navalny shouting the odds from prison. The jails have never been as full with protestors and there is literally standing room only. Even on Russian State TV one of the announcers have called for the war to be called off. The most important spur for removing hopefully the last Tzar or Russia has to be inside his own cabinet.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN AMERICA?

The American population have, as a result of the graphic ongoing images on TV depicting Putin’s barbarism and the brave resistance of Zelansky’s Ukraine, backed up  Biden’s actions to the hilt. However the fact is that this is at the expense of the devastation of Ukraine, death of civilians and nearly two and half million refugees. Seventy percent of Americans are prepared to pay more at the pump to support the Ukrainians. A similar amount will back a no fly zone which Biden obviously has intelligence that this is Putin’s nuclear line in the sand 

Trump’s nominees in Primaries have taken a hit for backing his love of Putin and his initial response of calling him a “genius” for the war. This also has led to Republicans campaigning that Biden is weak and that more shall be done. There has been a bipartisan vote for a thirteen billion dollar support package for Ukraine. Biden’s approval numbers are inching up as has proved a stable yet forceful leader courting bipartnership nationally and internationally.

It is fair to say that the American administration misread the outcome of this confrontation. They like Putin underestimated the Ukrainian resistance and overestimated the Russian military. Everyone was prepared for an urban fight. Plans were made to airlift Zelensky and his inner circle to be a government in exile. As Zelensky countered he needed ammunition not a ride. This fight has now continued for over two weeks and in Putin’s frustration he is adapting a scorched earth policy. America need to rethink its policy as to whether they provide Migs somehow or other as those long range missiles and artillery have to be taken out before they reduce Ukraine to rubble. Zelensky needs the wherewithal to win this war. The removal of Russian’s so called “favored nation” trade status will just not cut it.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The longer this carries on the more this becomes a battle between democracy and autocracy. America as the leader of the free world have to see it as such. Zelensky has convinced the world that this is what this conflict is all about. 

Standing around waiting for Putin to be axed is not a policy. The more he perceives he is vulnerable the more outrageous and desperate his actions will become. 

Like in Syria Putin has threatened chemical warfare by claiming that this is what the Americans were planning  as a false flag operation. Obama claimed that their use in Syria was a red line in the sand and then chickened out. Biden in spite of his aversion to conflict needs to draw some lines in the sand. He has America and the world behind him. So far his line in the sand does not to extend Ukraine and he insists it won’t. 

At the end of the day the Russians still have no endgame. 

IS WORLD WAR 111 WITH PUTIN INEVITABLE?

As Putin ratchets up the ante, changes his narrative, and acts more and more irrationally, his undisciplined incompetent armed forces are making a bizarre hash of their objective. As the atrocities pile up the West has to face up to the reality that sooner or later they might have to take him on. The only other alternatives are that he is subjected to a coup, or even less likely Ukraine cause the Russian forces to retreat. There is one other shot and that is to cut off the revenues from oil and gas which is Russia’s last economic lifetime. The latter would cause much world wide pain.  Notwithstanding the obvious political downside President Biden has been visiting the possibility of US not purchasing Russian oil. These options are only possible because of the leadership of the Ukrainian leader Zelensky whom the prestigious New Yorker magazine has called the current Winston Churchill.

In the meantime chasing after oligarchs’ yachts when a devastating nuclear explosion may well be in the offing, children’s cancer hospitals are being bombed and millions are fleeing Ukraine is not providing any comfort for the beleaguered Ukrainians,  Zelensky has urged that the surest way to help would be to create a no fly zone over Ukraine. That would mean NATO engaging with Russia. This is the one option that is off the table for NATO and the EU. 

Biden has made it quite clear that should Putin show any aggression to a NATO  country it will be World War 111. To the concerned citizens of the world, as opposed to their governments, the distinction between a genocidal attack on Ukraine, a wannabe NATO nation and an actual NATO country is hard to fathom. If war with Putin is inevitable there would be no better time than now. Obviously those with streams of intelligence and the responsibility of decision making are best placed to decide. Americans and the world can breathe a sigh of relief that it is Biden that is leading the charge in this crisis and not Trump who would probably want an investigation into Hunter Biden before delivering the support that Ukraine needs to defend itself against his friend, “the genius” Putin. 

HOW PUTIN GOT TO WHERE HE IS NOW TEN DAYS INTO THE "MILITARY OPERATION"

As Jay H. Ell has blogged Putin believed that this was the most advantageous time to restore Russia’s former glory, (“Putin Will He Or Won’t He - He Won’t Because Trump Has Gone” and “Unhinged Putin - Make Russia Great Again”).  Putin misread the situation completely, particularly the leadership of President Biden and Premier Zelensky. The latter he regarded as a joke and he believed Biden was weakened by his ally Trump who was leader of the Republican Party. So all that the Russian Premier anticipated was a weak America, an ineffectual NATO and a disintegrating Europe who collectively would put in token sanctions. It is history that he underestimated Biden’s ability to get the West in line and that his assessment of Zelensky was wishful thinking. 

The intelligence Putin received was either atrocious or alternatively, he, like Hitler in the bunker when confronted with the reality of what has happening on the ground responded, “Don’t bring me defeatist statistics”. Plan A was that the overwhelming force he massed on the Ukrainian border together with the nuclear exercises would scare Zelensky into folding his hand and sue for peace whereupon he would install a puppet regime and that would be that. Zelensky did not oblige. In fact he pretended to believe Putin’s narrative that he was not going to invade. Putin thus moved to Plan B

Plan B entailed a blitzkrieg operation where he would attack Ukraine from three sides of the compass and in three days he would have seized the capitol Kiev. His army would be welcomed by the Ukrainian Russians who would be finally liberated from the Ukrainian yoke. Putin had forgotten that thirty years ago Ukraine had a ninety percent vote in favor of independence while Zelensky was swept into power in 2019 with seventy - five percent of the vote. So after three days when the food and fuel ran out he was absolutely nowhere near Kiev and enforcing Plan B. In addition Biden had spent the previous months getting his NATO and EU ducks in a row as well as igniting sanctions that knocked Putin's plans out of the park. So Plan B morphed into Plan C.

Plan C was all out war that had worked in Chechnia and Aleppo when the West were hardly even covering the news as it would get viewers grabbing for their remotes. This would be unashamed carpet bombing concentrating on the schools, the hospitals and flattening the country so as to knock the morale out of the population. His sheer fire power and numbers had to ensure victory. However there was no control over the troops, a large number of which didn’t even know they were going to war. Some even deserted. Putin would have been better advised to pay attention to the Afghanistan precedent where the USSR had been routed. This led to the breaking up of the Soviet Empire which Putin was trying, like Humpty Dumpty, to put it together again. 

His convoy from Belarus from the North which is forty miles long could not proceed for a host of reasons not the least of which was lack of fuel, provisions and break down of antiquated equipment. As matters stand the facts relating to this column are shrouded in mystery. The snow is thick there and trees surround the road. All adding up to the fact that Zelensky’s team could pick them off one at a time. Perhaps there is too much air cover to effect this, The anti tank and anti aircraft weaponry that the Ukrainians now possess is ideal for the task. One fact is for certain the Russians are not motionless by choice the Ukrainians claiming that they are inflicting losses on this ponderous war machine.

So as matters stand Putin is steam rolling from the South with colossal losses and has one town, Kershon, to show for his troubles. It is estimated that his armed forces have been degraded by at least five percent which represents seven thousand troops dead. In fact that is about the number the Ukrainians have reported that have been killed. There appears to be no discipline or coordination as witnessed by the stupidity of nearly creating a nuclear disaster that would have wiped out Eastern Europe and Western Russia. It took hours to get the message that they better let the firefighters in to put out the flames. The major success Putin can reassure himself with is that he is killing civilians. He, Jay H. Ell supposes, can sleep well at night that his army outnumbers and outguns Zelensky’s forces and that he has to win in the end, whatever winning means.

Putin has no Plan D on how to fight off the insurgency that follows if he is indeed able to finally occupy Ukraine. Nor on how to hold the cities in the South so he can move onto Kiev.

WHAT PUTIN IS FACING IN THE WORLD AS MARCH 6 BECKONS

The fall of the Cold War’s other super power could not have been more vividly portrayed as it was in the result of the UNO General Assembly vote where Russia was condemned for its attack on Ukraine and “ordered” to withdraw all its troops immediately. Voting against the resolution were only four other countries - Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea and Syria. China abstained as did India as did Russian allies such as Cuba and Nicaragua. United Arab Emirates voted against Russia having abstained the day before in the Security Council. When Hungary and Poland vigorously oppose Russia autocracy and aggression, Putin has to know he is on his own. So the mighty former world super power has been reduced to four rogue allies.

 China’s abstention was accompanied by calling the scenes in Ukraine “heart wrenching” and the Chinese representative reiterated Beijing’s policy for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries. Together with the Chinese Foreign Minister’s telephone call to his Ukrainian counterpart, China made clear which side of the fence they were falling onto. Added to this abandonment Putin also had to have pondered what had happened to his partners in OPEC. Saudi Arabia who had to date not condemned Russia also voted for the strong resolution. (It has been reported that the Biden administration was working hard with the OPEC countries to jack their production up and abandon their newest best friend in OPEC, Russia).

So with almost unanimous support for sanctions and help for Ukraine which included Switzerland historically breaking their neutrality, Germany sending weapons and doubling their defense budget and the South East Asian countries joining in, Putin has every right to feel that the whole world is against him. He now faces stronger and more united EU and NATO. There is also an ominous commitment to go to war with him if he makes any aggressive moves against any NATO country. Against NATO his underperforming army would face two million troops.

WHAT PUTIN IS FACING IN RUSSIA AS MARCH 6 BECKONS

Biden robbed Putin of any pretense in the real world that Ukraine had provoked the war by daily broadcasting intelligence that Russia was about to attack. Putin denied the latter to the world and to Russia. Hence he had to give good reason to his electorate as to why he was launching a “military operation”into brother Ukraine. He argued that the Russians in Ukraine, which really belonged to Russia, were being trodden on by an illegitimate Neo Nazi government all of whom were drug addicts. He declared that this was a military operation and not an invasion or a war. It was a criminal offense to label it the latter. His “”operation” was proceeded by televising his declaration of two Eastern Ukrainian provinces, Donesk and Luhansk, as independent states. There were also similar theatrical productions where Department Heads were called upon one by one to support his peace keeping forces to these areas and his “operation”. All these incidents looked like comic skits. The giant rooms were so gaudy that they made Mar - o - Largo appear to be the epitome of good taste. 

Then there were the Russian protests which have not subsided but to date have not been overwhelming. However the fact that the military have been reported firing on them just shows how edgy Putin is to keep Russians in line. There was the banning of the spectrum of media that even slightly deviated from the Party Line. Jay H. Ell cannot believe that the Russians don’t know that something is amiss when lifelong penalties are threatened for demonstrations and the anemic opposition is silenced. But the conventional wisdom is that the older Russians have swallowed the “neo Nazi” bit and the younger one’s haven’t. In case the older one’s need convincing the devaluation of the ruble to less than a cent, the cost of living and interest rate shooting up and the long lines to obtain a few dollars from ATMs surely must tweak their thought processes. Maybe some - one will ask why their Mastercards and Visa’s don’t work and Western companies have closed down their operations?

What will really shock the Russians are the body bags. Putin now admits to nearly five hundred killed plus well over a thousand injured in his “operation”. He has promised the widows sixty - five thousand dollars and forty thousand dollars to the families of wounded soldiers. Note the pay out is in dollars not rubles! And the world has to believe that the Russian are swallowing all his garbage. 

Nobody knows what is going on behind the scenes in Russia but Putin is so isolated neither can he. Some of those guys have to be talking to one another…. If they aren’t you can’t hide body bags and if Putin remembers that is what got his glorious USSR decimated in the first place.

BIDEN AND THE LOCAL POLITICAL SCENE

BIden took a colossal risk in a political climate where he was being pilloried by the Republicans and his approval was at an all time low. However he has rallied the country behind him. Eighty percent of the Republicans back his decisions on the war. His State of the Union address where he outlined his Ukrainian initiatives received standing ovations from both sides of the Chamber. A zoom meeting that Zelensky had with US Congress people on March 5 reinforced bipartisan support and could lead to him obtaining airplanes and up to ten billion dollars more in aid.

Trump and his Fox echo chamber with their support of Putin and the Russians have been made to look ridiculous. Trump in an under reported speech at the CPAC conference condemned the invasion and applauded the Ukrainian resistance, while still acknowledging his admiration for good old Vladimir. Apparently nobody believes him or cares. However at another Conservative Party Action Committee meeting, where the Majorie Taylor Greenes of this world were featured, Putin and Russia were lionized. The audience shouted “Putin, Putin”. It is a sad state of affairs that this section of the “Republicans” believe the real enemy is Biden and the real ally is Putin. Former Republican Vice President Mike Pence riding the current sentiment of the majority of the “Republicans” has stated that there is no room in the Party for “Putin apologists”. One fact is for sure the six percent of Americans who approve of Putin are well represented on Fox News and are the tail that wags the “Republican Party”.

Biden will do everything he can to see that his efforts don’t worsen the current inflation but he has warned that the citizenry might have to share the burden in the fight for freedom. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The.ball is in Putin’s court. He still can do a deal with Zelensky who will probably give him his separatist states or something so he can declare victory while sitting at his tatty white long table with its Trump colored gold stripes. In the lunatic asylum that is the Russian Duma they have legislated that if you call the “operation” a war or an invasion you can go to jail for fifteen years. So the  option fro negotiation is remote as Putin seems to be resolved to live or die for his “operation”. The Israeli Prime Minister followed a procession of world leaders who have tried to negotiate peace. 

Three current number ones : Icon for freedom  - Zelensky; Leader of the Free World - Biden and Pariah of the Universe - Putin.

If the Russian forty mile column to the North of Kiev is demolished those Russians battling in the South can go home. They can ask Putin what Plan E is. 

Zelensky is understandably furious. He believes that the time has come to declare Ukraine a no fly zone. He and his people have fought the good fight and resentment is boiling over that the Ukrainians have to bear the brunt of holding up the free world. He has to be of the opinion that “they” need to finish Putin off.

Zelensky obviously reckons war with Putin is inevitable. NATO obviously has intelligence that the “genius” Putin’s Plan F involves nuclear weapons. (He has as much said so). In this situation, as painful as it is to watch Ukraine shoulder this battle on their own, one has to bow to Biden’s experience, savvy and intelligence and accept his and his military brass’s decision. NATO nations leadership and intelligence are ad idem on a no fly zone. 

Biden is the genius not Putin or Trump. Putin would like nothing more than to announce to the Russians that the Ukrainian “operation” was to prevent the real aggressors, NATO, from invading Russia.

The feeling of helplessness continues as the world stands by and watches the sadistic, sociopathic bully practice genocide and firing on women and children refugees……