Vladimir Putin, as Joseph Biden predicted by using detailed intelligence that would have certainly stopped a more rational leader, announced that he would once again “Make Russia Great Again”. This objective the Russian Premier would achieve by annexing Ukraine as the latter’s democracy and move to the West has become more and more of a threat to his own dictatorship.
Putin, exhibiting none of the coolheaded sophistication that had been on display prior to his isolation for two years in the Covid pandemic, made his criminal intention clear in a long rambling speech in which he gave a revisionist history as to the relationship between Russia, the USSR and Ukraine. Putin exhibited frightening paranoia in his move which toppled the world order. A paranoia noted by President Macron.
Objectively Putin has with his tiny economy, (less than half of California), has more than shoved his weight on the world stage to date. Russia metaphorically speaking is a gas station in front of a nuclear power plant. Their economy is otherwise as unsophisticated as any in the third world. Yet Putin has picked his fights thus far with surgical skill - until Ukraine.
IMPACT ON DEMOCRACY v AUTOCRACY
Putin’s action puts the world fight as to whether democracy or autocracy will be the dominant form of government in the twenty second century in stark focus. It will have an impact in America where there is an internal battle between the autocratic Trump led Trump Old Party, (TOP) and the Democrats. In Russia there is a similar struggle as evidenced by the large scale national anti war protest that began spontaneously following Putin announcing his plan. Social media was awash with protests.These demonstrations were in spite of Putin warning that the offenders would earn criminal records that will mar them for life. More significantly for Putin was a further drop in the ruble and the bottom falling out of the stock market.
Putin announced his “military operation” at 6.00am Russian time surprising his populace at what appeared to be an inexplicable attack on “brothers”. Putin went full press on trying to convince the Russians of the legitimacy of the war for “security” reasons against an “illegitimate” nation. Presumably President Zelensky’s plea to the Russian people for peace will reach the masses one way or another. As most of the democratic leaders in Russia are jailed and none are allowed to stand for election it is difficult to quantify the forces for and against autocracy.
VLADIMIR PUTIN
So Vladimir Putin has attempted to defy history and push back the clock to when Russia was a great power. In the process he rocked the world by putting full blame for the conflict on the West whom he somehow fantasizes was responsible for the 1991 break up of the USSR. Putin was determined to continue the unhappy history of Russia with their despotic leaders dominating their sad sad proletariat. Whether it be the Tzars or Lenin, Stalin, Kruschev, Brezhnev or even Gorbachev, the desire for central control with concomitant bloodshed has punctuated the sad sad history of Russia. Simply put the Russian Premier, who has not so quietly fumed that the Western States of the Soviet Union have gone West, could not tolerate what he believes is a large chunk of the "original" Russia leaving the mother country. As Jay H. Ell has blogged in “Putin: Will He Won’t He - He Can’t Because Trump Is Gone”, the autocrat had reasons to believe that this was the ideal time to move
Putin has made three cardinal mistakes, in the form of Biden, Zelensky and NATO, which puts him ultimately in a lose - lose situation. Putin could further have not imagined that the countries in the United Nations would be so unified in their condemnation of his neo - colonial aggression. The reluctance of the participants of his theatrical meeting with his Security Council on live TV more than hinted at the Russian establishment's doubts. So Putin is on his own in history where he wants to be. In fact his desire to be up there with Stalin and Lenin is the strongest deterrent to him using nuclear weapons because if he does there will be no Russia left to have a history about.
VLAD AND DONALD
Jay H. Ell recently blogged “Putin: Will He Won’t He - He Can’t Because Trump Is Gone”. The assumption for this assessment was the Putin that everyone knew was a savvy cautious operator. He has emerged from Covid isolation as a rambling paranoid. Jay H. Ell in addition failed to realize that by Putin’s reckoning Trump has not gone. He is the de facto leader of the "Republican" Party and probable 2024 candidate who openly supports Putin labelling his illegal land grabbing gangsterism as “genius”. The “Republican” leader of the House attacks “weak” Biden at a time when the nation should be united against the most ominous totalitarian threat since Hitler. Tucker Carlson, Trump’s Fox megaphone has nightly supported Putin’s right to incorporate Ukraine by force. In short Putin is supported by the last American President and some of his Party. Trump to add insult to injury is possibly the next American President and shares the same disdain for NATO and democracy as Putin does,
Trump’s relationship with Russia goes way back. That is what the Mueller investigation was all about - “Russia are you listening”. Attorney General Barr whitewashed the Mueller report while the shameless “Republicans” stood by. Trump’s first campaign manager, Paul Manafort, was maneuvering tor the Russians to have a chunk of Ukraine. He like the others in Trump's inner circle, were in cahoots with the Putin cabal. They were subsequently pardoned by Trump for their criminal behavior relating to the Russian intervention in the 2016 election. However, when the bombs started dropping and the troops started marching Trump, his ear ever close to the ground of public opinion, reflected to Fox, “How sad it was”. He acknowledged that people were going tp be killed and reassured the faithful that this would never have happened if he was still President. There is little doubt that Trump will lessen the opprobrium directed at his alter ego Putin, should he, heaven forfend, become President again.
ZELENSKY
Volodymyr Zelensky President of Ukraine, a former television media star, has proved as tough as nails. The perception was that he was in over his head. Putin had to have believed that with the massive show of force he would cave. After all Belarus folded without a shot fired. In spite of all the provocation and attempts at false flag operations Zelensky has kept his cool and has hung tough. His 2019 landslide electoral victory leaves little doubt that he is in charge. His resolve played no small part in rallying NATO and support at the United Nations for his cause.
In the 2014 Russian land grab the Ukrainian resistance limited their country's losses to Crimea and the Eastern provinces, in some instances even throwing the Russians out of small towns. The resistance is far greater now both in conventional military terms and on the ground.
Zelensky is his own man. Biden cautioned him not to leave Ukraine to attend the Munich summit on the crisis but he pitched up all the same. There he pleaded to the nations assembled that they needed to do more. While he still has to be disappointed that other sanctions haven’t materialized it appears that Biden has been sharing intelligence with him so he has to have known for months this was coming. A ton of aid poured in and apparently they have enough stinger missiles to knock out every Russian tank.
All in all the Ukrainian Premier was in sync with not reacting to Russian vexing maneuvers helping to bolster the narrative that this was, “A war without cause”. He has become a symbol for freedom and democracy and Putin’s objective is to replace him with a puppet before the body bags pile up. The West have to have put in place a safety net so if necessary he can become head of an Ukrainian government in exile.
BIDEN
Putin like everyone else underestimated Biden. The latter has handled the existential threat to world peace with aplomb and skill. This he has executed in spite of the risk of further weakening his local political position. In the teeth of being attacked by the Trump flank and the legislative “Republicans” whose only common ground on this issue is that everything that Biden does is wrong, the POTUS stuck to his guns. He achieved the impossible getting Europe and NATO on sides, The Europeans are going to be in the brunt of the blowback of the Russian sanctions. Biden was honest with the USA electorate, who are experiencing rampant inflation, informing them that siding with those fighting for freedom may well worsen their day to day predicament - "But this is who we are". Ironically he will be also attacked for not doing more but in order to maintain the incredible unified front he could only go as far as the allies concurred.
The POTUS by declassifying intelligence robbed Putin of any surprise and any credibility in the eyes of the world. Putin lied to everyone including notably President Macron of France as well as his own people that he would not invade. The reward of Biden's shrewd daily exposures led all the so called “non aligned” nations from India, to Kenya waxing eloquent at the UN Security Council about Russia’s neo colonialism.
Biden has put America, for the moment at least, back as the world leader for democracy. It took great trust and know how to cobble this coalition together. There is every confidence that he will continue to lead the world in this perilous time.
CHINA
Putin did not attend the opening of the Winter Olympic Games In Beijing to compare it with his jamboree at Sochi. At the very least he gave Xi Jinping the head’s up that this venture was on the cards. One cannot imagine that the Russian President offered open support but Putin was probably reassured that he could do what he had to do but not untill the Games were over. There is not much in it for Xi to go out on a limb for Vladimir. They are playing totally different hands at the moment. Xi is out there as a real world power still ostensibly Communist but with a highly developed free market economy, China has a massive infrastructure “Belt and Road” project which stretches from East Asia to Europe. This is to gain allies and trading partners. The very countries screaming at Russia at the United Nations are the ones Xi is aiming to influence. At the same time Xi wants to annex Taiwan. However any thought of the latter has to take a back seat to his world wide trade ambitions and at the risk of being wrong again Jay H. Ell thinks he really is rational!
So where does this leave China in the dispute, after all my enemy’s enemy is my friend? It leaves them as their words have shown, on the fence. They have denied backing the assault. They have called for talks. They have bought wheat from Russia. However their representative at UNO first called on both sides to desist from war, then when Putin declared his attack on the “nazis” Beijing's representative stated that his government had their own way of impacting this conflict. Just in case there is any doubt as to the risk to the Chinese carefully laid out foreign policy, Biden warned that any country that backed Russia would be a pariah. Biden has refused to comment on any discussions he may or may not have had with Xi.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
It is a long way off to the end of the day but with the forces arraigned against Russia it is hard to imagine any scenarios where they come out on top when this all over, in spite of the fact that Ukraine will be in tatters.
Putin is dealing against a sophisticated army who have more weaponry than Russia faced in Afghanistan. In addition not too many countries gave a hoot as to what was happening in Afghanistan. Now he has the world against him.
Putin is out of touch with everyone and everybody including the country he rules. One just hopes he does not blow up the world in frustration. If he does he cannot go down in history with the Tzars and all the others.
There are those that are putting this down to a diplomatic failure by the West. Suppose all bases have to be covered.
Like it or not our destiny is in the hands of single actors. Would you buy a used car from Trump let alone hand him the keys to the nuclear code again?
Think "Republicans" - Trump has more in common with Putin's Russia than Biden's America.
This travesty is so disgusting that it is unbearably painful to listen to the news.
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