Every political action at the moment involving leader Trump devolves around keeping him out of jail and setting into motion elections that will ensure white minority power - starting in 2022 midterms and culminating in the triumphant return of Il Duce in 2024. The only reason that such a scenario can seriously be muted is that the “Republicans” have abandoned all principles and are in one way or another supporting this outcome. The sad truth is that they are quite prepared to live with Trump if it means political survival. They cannot defy Trump as they could well lose their Primary nomination encounters. This situation has created a right royal mess in the “Grand Old Party” which in a midterm election with raging inflation and an incumbent President with low approval numbers would under normal circumstances be poised to take both the House and the Senate. The presence of an unhinged Trump with all the attendant problems has altered that certainty.
TRUMP RESORTS TO INCITING "PROTEST" AND "RIGGING" ELECTIONS AS THE “REPUBLICANS” JUST GO ALONG - COULD THIS MEAN CIVIL WAR?
The actions and words of former President Donald J. Trump combined with the reality that the “Republican Party” is really the “Trump Old Party” (TOP), no longer supporting democracy, has increased discussion about the inevitability of Civil War II in America. Three erudite best seller books have fanned the flames of the prospect of that outcome - “How Civil Wars Start by Barbara Walters, “The Next Civil War” by Stephen Marche and “Divided We Fall” by David French. While the threat of a Civil War and the possibility of the USA becoming an autocracy are often discussed in the same breathe they are not necessarily synonymous. In Trump’s mind the distinction is irrelevant as long as he is President and above the law. However as Trump sees the fantasy of the 2020 election being reversed vanish, his behavior could be considered to be conducive to stoking a civil war type situation while simultaneously subverting democracy so as to be reelected in 2024. Civil War involves violence while an autocracy can be achieved by just manipulating the system to ensure power rendering democracy impotent. Trump is courting both to ensure his viability. He needs to be alive and kicking in 2024 so as to be around “to win” the Presidency. That means the “Republicans” winning in the midterms and, if it is not too late, halting the 1/6 investigation.
Members of the TOP, while they are for the most part repulsed at the violence spurred on by Trump, still have a stomach for an autocracy which will keep them and Trump in power. Jay H. Ell believes that the "violence" which Trump is inciting his supporters towards cannot realistically succeed in returning him or putting him in power. However as the legal probes proceed Trump seems to believe that he needs the threat of violence to protect him.The problem is the mess the non Civil War types in the TOP are facing as they happily back, at a State and National level, non democratic legislation in order to retain power. However this Faustian bargain includes swearing allegiance to Trump, playing down the Capitol insurrection and tolerating his current seditious talk.
TRUMP GIVES THE CODE FOR A "VIOLENT" UPRISING
Donald Trump is understandably growing more and more desperate as the legal noose begins to tighten around his neck. If you follow his drift he has to create a milieu, a threat or reality to keep him from being indicted. Then if indeed charged create the fear of G-d into anyone who might dream he was guilty. So he is racking up the rhetoric as his latest Nuremberg style rallies indicate. There are very few constitutional experts that have not interpreted his recent harangue in Texas as a call to arms and predict that the inevitable indictments handed down by prosecutors will include sedition. His words require very little interpretation as to what should follow, “If these vicious, racist prosecutors do anything wrong or illegal. I hope we are to have in this country the biggest protest we have ever had”. In case the latter words need any interpretation the last “protest” resulted in the Capitol insurrection.
Now up till now his January 6 soldiers have been on their own.Trump has distanced himself from the defendants, whom “he loves” in the Capitol insurrection . However in Texas he gave them his full endorsement, They had been “very unfairly treated”. (Incidentally that is not what the sentencing judges have stated. They want to know why some of these insurrectionists have only been charged with trespassing). He would consider pardoning them, “..if he ran for President and if he won”. Wow if you deliver you will be pardoned as he said he might do. After all he had pardoned Stone, Manafort, Bannon and Flynn but to mention a few.
The threats against "racist" prosecutors led to the African American Attorney General in Fulton County Georgia, who is well down the road in prosecuting Trump, to ask for protection from the FBI. Maybe some of the muscle that are awaiting trial for sedition in the Capitol invasion will rethink their possible cooperation pleas if they are just three years away from a Donald pardon
This is all very desperate stuff and weakens the TOP Party no end as things are only going to get worse. Also what is really on the legal horizon and how would insurrection really go?
IMPACT ON THE “REPUBLICANS” OF TRUMP’S LATEST LINE.
The Democrats are supposed to be divided but they are a monolith compared to Trump’s TOP. The majority of “Republican” legislators just want to keep out of his way. In any constituency which is remotely marginal he is a liability. At the same time if you hit Donald’s radar and don’t do the blood oath thing then he will put a primary candidate against you. Then there of course there is his swooning following, they will keep making it difficult to make a concerted move against the lunacy. There are those who hover backwards and forwards like Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell who have however condemned the pardon story. Big time. There are three key players in the category of switching backwards and forwards. the former two and Kevin McCarthy all of whom at one time or another condemned the Capitol violence.
As matters stand there is open warfare between Trump and the most powerful “Republican” legislator. Mitch McConnell. But they are united on the surface on regaining the House and the Senate.
Now there is another key constituency - the other presidential hopefuls. The most powerful of these is Florida Governor DeSantis. He and Trump are at each others throats over Covid vaccination. Trump, of late, a supporter because after all he initiated “Operation Warp Speed”, which is accredited for the speedy arrival of a vaccine. DeSantis all but argues vaccination is unpatriotic. Then there is former VP Pence, whom Trump attacks night and day for not “changing the election results”, who has serious real conservative support. This plus a long list of wannabes who slightly distinguish themselves from Trump. None of this crowd have come out in support of Trump’s crescendoring rhetoric violence but they may soon have to comment one way or another as the midterms approach and Trump’s legal fate really gets hairy.
So it is fair to say that the Republican legislators in particular are at sixes and sevens as to how position themselves vis a vis Trump. Lindsey Graham epitomizes the dilemma. He is Trump’s best friend but has twice said enough is enough - most recently in response to Trump’s pardoning the rioters suggestion. Prior to that he warned McConnell that he would not vote for him as Senate Leader if he did not acknowledge Trump as the de facto head of the “Republicans”. Graham’s pitch is that, that is where the base is. The latest however in the back and forth between the pair is that Trump has attacked Lindsey calling him a RINO , that is a "Republican In Name Only". This spat is reminiscent of the fighting and make ups of lovers' tiffs.
This begs the question how really bad Trump’s legal jeopardy really is ? The worse that it becomes, the more central the issue becomes to members of the TOP as soon there will be no place to hide.
TRUMP’S WORSENING LEGAL POSITION
A fair indicator of the seriousness of the situation is Trump’s Texas “call to arms” if he is indicted. He is recruiting his supporters for the biggest “protest” ever. Although the New York and Georgia litigation is significant what may result from the House January 6 investigation can be devastating. The committee has been relentless having interviewed nearly five hundred witnesses and obtained thousands of documents including those that Trump initially tried to tear up and or withhold. The number of former Trump administrators and highly placed Pence staff including his Chief of Staff and Chief Legal Officer, all of whom can give first hand reports of Trump’s role in attempting to remain in power, is legion. They can list the host of stratagems, from the moment it was obvious that he had lost the election, that Trump engaged in. While it would be nice if Rudi Giuliani would be given immunity in exchange for completing the picture it is hardly necessary.
The House Committee is going to put on an outline of all the evidence on prime time TV. It is hard to imagine the Justice Department ignoring this overwhelming case. The long history will be documented from November 2020 till date to be decided upon. The facts, Jay H. Ell is size will show prima facie evidence of his intent at sedition and a list of other crimes,
Merrick Garland the Attorney General is a conservative and thorough jurist who should have been on the Supreme Court were it not for McConnell’s infamy. He has pointedly remained independent and is obviously of the belief that it is only in banana republics that you charge your political opposition. However it is going to be more difficult to duck his responsibility with this mountain of proof. Trump in response if his modus operandi is an indicator, is going to up his ante, witness tamper further and in effect call for a revolt.
Assuming Trump is charged then what?
TRUMP IS INDICTED SO WHAT?
The prospect of a Trump indictment is the basis of the wild speculation of a Civil War. Implicit in a Civil War are two opposing forces, usually armies, fighting it out. Who are the Trump supporters? Well they have to be similar to the crowd that pitched up at the Capitol on 1/6. He will need new leaders cause many will be still locked up. He can’t pardon them yet as he isn’t President. Jay H. Ell will take any odds that his backers in the TOP won’t be tripping over one another to lead the mob.
What can the Trumpist "revolutionaries" do? Invade the Capitol again and if successful declare themselves the government and Trump President? There would be a lot more bloodshed as this time they could take their guns out of their cars and hotel rooms. In addition there could be bombings of post offices and other government buildings. They could pitch up to Trump’s trial and scrap with the counter protestors........
In short it could be ugly but no Civil War. The army are not going to go out and join them. No law enforcement entity in any meaningful numbers will defy their oaths and join the resisters. Most significantly those smug members of TOP will have to make choices and lead their constituents one way or another. Very few if any will back the losing side. They will have to do what they should be doing now. How do they really believe this scenario will end?
It is obvious that the “Republicans” are just hoping it will all go away and they can proceed to win the midterms with their voter suppression, gerrymandering of constituencies and the Trump base turning out in full. Their greatest prayer is that Trump will shut up, not back unelectable candidates in the primaries and stop incriminating himself further and further every time he opens his mouth. But that latter is just not going to happen. They are also ignoring the fact that Biden and the Democrats are not going to stand around and do nothing. They have a message of achievement to sell, the inflation should be at least controlled by the midterms while McConnell has admitted that their election is platform is just Biden. Well, Jay H. Ell has news for him, the de facto leader of McConnell’s “party” believes it is he Donald J Trump that is the issue and he will increasingly be out on the hustings to prove it.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Predictions of a Civil War, as polarized as the country may be, are unrealistic. Sabotage and violence are a possibility but nothing that cannot be overcome by law and order.
Donald J Trump will inevitably face legal liabilities which in addition to triggering support by his radical base will force the leadership of the “Republicans” to make choices. They would be far better to cut themselves loose from Trump now and try and rebuild a party that challenges philosophically and politically the economic and social policies of the Biden Administration.
There are many outcomes to this story from on the one end Trump not being charged and going onto being the forty - seventh President - to the other where his candidates do not even win the 2022 Primaries and him being in jail in time for 2024.
Not to be nosey or anything but did they ever build that wall? And if they did who paid for it? Mexico?
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