UNHINGED PUTIN - "MAKE RUSSIA GREAT AGAIN"

Vladimir Putin, as Joseph Biden predicted by using detailed intelligence that would have certainly stopped a more rational leader, announced that he would once again “Make Russia Great Again”. This objective the Russian Premier would achieve by annexing Ukraine as the latter’s democracy and move to the West has become more and more of a threat to his own dictatorship. 

Putin, exhibiting none of the coolheaded sophistication that had been on display prior to his isolation for two years in the Covid pandemic, made his criminal intention clear in a long rambling speech in which he gave a revisionist history as to the relationship between Russia, the USSR and Ukraine. Putin exhibited frightening paranoia in his move which toppled the world order. A paranoia noted by President Macron.

Objectively Putin has with his tiny economy, (less than half of California), has more than shoved his weight on the world stage to date. Russia metaphorically speaking is a gas station in front of a nuclear power plant. Their economy is otherwise as unsophisticated as any in the third world. Yet Putin has picked his fights thus far with surgical skill - until Ukraine.

IMPACT ON DEMOCRACY v AUTOCRACY 

Putin’s action puts the world fight as to whether democracy or autocracy will be the dominant form of government in the twenty second century in stark focus. It will have an impact in America where there is an internal battle between the autocratic Trump led Trump Old Party, (TOP) and the Democrats. In Russia there is a similar struggle as evidenced by the large scale national anti war protest that began spontaneously following Putin announcing his plan. Social media was awash with protests.These demonstrations were in spite of Putin warning that the offenders would earn criminal records that will mar them for life. More significantly for Putin was a further drop in the ruble and the bottom falling out of the stock market.

Putin announced his “military operation” at 6.00am Russian time surprising his populace at what appeared to be an inexplicable attack on “brothers”. Putin went full press on trying to convince the Russians of the legitimacy of the war for “security” reasons against an “illegitimate” nation. Presumably President Zelensky’s plea to the Russian people for peace will reach the masses one way or another. As most of the democratic leaders in Russia are jailed and none are allowed to stand for election it is difficult to quantify the forces for and against autocracy. 

VLADIMIR PUTIN

So Vladimir Putin has attempted to defy history and push back the clock to when Russia was a great power. In the process he rocked the world by putting full blame for the conflict on the West whom he somehow fantasizes was responsible for the 1991 break up of the USSR. Putin was determined to continue the unhappy history of Russia with their despotic leaders dominating their sad sad proletariat. Whether it be the Tzars or Lenin, Stalin, Kruschev, Brezhnev or even Gorbachev, the desire for central control with concomitant bloodshed has punctuated the sad sad history of Russia. Simply put the Russian Premier, who has not so quietly fumed that the Western States of the Soviet Union have gone West, could not tolerate what he believes is a large chunk of the "original" Russia leaving the mother country. As Jay H. Ell has blogged in “Putin: Will He Won’t He - He Can’t Because Trump Is Gone”, the autocrat had reasons to believe that this was the ideal time to move

Putin has made three cardinal mistakes, in the form of Biden, Zelensky and NATO, which puts him ultimately in a lose - lose situation. Putin could further have not imagined that the countries in the United Nations would be so unified in their condemnation of his neo - colonial aggression. The reluctance of the participants of his theatrical meeting with his Security Council on live TV more than hinted at the Russian establishment's doubts. So Putin is on his own in history where he wants to be. In fact his desire to be up there with Stalin and Lenin is the strongest deterrent to him using nuclear weapons because if he does there will be no Russia left to have a history about.  

VLAD AND DONALD

Jay H. Ell  recently blogged “Putin: Will He Won’t He - He Can’t Because Trump Is Gone”. The assumption for this assessment was the Putin that everyone knew was a savvy cautious operator. He has emerged from Covid isolation as a rambling paranoid. Jay H. Ell in addition failed to realize that by Putin’s reckoning Trump has not gone. He is the de facto leader of the "Republican" Party and probable 2024 candidate who openly supports Putin labelling his illegal land grabbing gangsterism as “genius”. The “Republican” leader of the House attacks “weak” Biden at a time when the nation should be united against the most ominous totalitarian threat since Hitler. Tucker Carlson, Trump’s Fox megaphone has nightly supported Putin’s right to incorporate Ukraine by force. In short Putin is supported by the last American President and some of his Party. Trump to add insult to injury is possibly the next American President and shares the same disdain for NATO and democracy as Putin does, 

Trump’s relationship with Russia goes way back. That is what the Mueller investigation was all about - “Russia are you listening”. Attorney General Barr whitewashed the Mueller report while the shameless “Republicans” stood by. Trump’s first campaign manager, Paul Manafort, was maneuvering tor the Russians to have a chunk of Ukraine. He like the others in Trump's inner circle, were in cahoots with the Putin cabal. They were subsequently pardoned by Trump for their criminal behavior relating to the Russian intervention in the 2016 election. However, when the bombs started dropping and the troops started marching Trump, his ear ever close to the ground of public opinion, reflected to Fox, “How sad it was”. He acknowledged that people were going tp be killed and reassured the faithful that this would never have happened if he was still President. There is little doubt that Trump will lessen the opprobrium directed at his alter ego Putin, should he, heaven forfend, become President again.

ZELENSKY

Volodymyr Zelensky President of Ukraine, a former television media star, has proved as tough as nails. The perception was that he was in over his head. Putin had to have believed that with the massive show of force he would cave. After all Belarus folded without a shot fired. In spite of all the provocation and attempts at false flag operations Zelensky has kept his cool and has hung tough. His 2019 landslide electoral victory leaves little doubt that he is in charge. His resolve played no small part in rallying NATO and support at the United Nations for his cause. 

In the 2014 Russian land grab the Ukrainian resistance limited their country's losses to Crimea and the Eastern provinces, in some instances even throwing the Russians out of small towns. The resistance is far greater now both in conventional military terms and on the ground. 

Zelensky is his own man. Biden cautioned him not to leave Ukraine to attend the Munich summit on the crisis but he pitched up all the same. There he pleaded to the nations assembled that they needed to do more. While he still has to be disappointed that other sanctions haven’t materialized it appears that Biden has been sharing intelligence with him so he has to have known for months this was coming. A ton of aid poured in and apparently they have enough stinger missiles to knock out every Russian tank. 

All in all the Ukrainian Premier was in sync with not reacting to Russian vexing maneuvers helping to bolster the narrative that this was, “A war without cause”. He has become a symbol for freedom and democracy and Putin’s objective is to replace him with a puppet before the body bags pile up. The West have to have put in place a safety net so if necessary he can become head of an Ukrainian government in exile.

BIDEN

Putin like everyone else underestimated Biden. The latter has handled the existential threat to world peace with aplomb and skill. This he has executed in spite of the risk of further weakening his local political position. In the teeth of being attacked by the Trump flank and the legislative “Republicans” whose only common ground on this issue is that everything that Biden does is wrong, the POTUS stuck to his guns. He achieved the impossible getting Europe and NATO on sides, The Europeans are going to be in the brunt of the blowback of the Russian sanctions. Biden was honest with the USA electorate, who are experiencing rampant inflation, informing them that siding with those fighting for freedom may well worsen their day to day predicament - "But this is who we are". Ironically he will be also attacked for not doing more but in order to maintain the incredible unified front he could only go as far as the allies concurred.

The POTUS by declassifying intelligence robbed Putin of any surprise and any credibility in the eyes of the world. Putin lied to everyone including notably President Macron of France as well as his own people that he would not invade. The reward of Biden's shrewd daily exposures led all the so called “non aligned” nations from India, to Kenya waxing eloquent at the UN Security Council about Russia’s neo colonialism. 

Biden has put America, for the moment at least, back as the world leader for democracy. It took great trust and know how to cobble this coalition together. There is every confidence that he will continue to lead the world in this perilous time.  

CHINA

Putin did not attend the opening of the Winter Olympic Games In Beijing to compare it with his jamboree at Sochi. At the very least he gave Xi Jinping the head’s up that this venture was on the cards. One cannot imagine that the Russian President  offered open support but Putin was probably reassured that he could do what he had to do but not untill the Games were over. There is not much in it for Xi to go out on a limb for Vladimir. They are playing totally different hands at the moment. Xi is out there as a real world power still ostensibly Communist but with a highly developed free market economy, China has a massive infrastructure “Belt and Road” project which stretches from East Asia to Europe. This is to gain allies and trading partners. The very countries screaming at Russia at the United Nations are the ones Xi is aiming to influence. At the same time Xi wants to annex Taiwan. However any thought of the latter has to take a back seat to his world wide trade ambitions and at the risk of being wrong again Jay H. Ell thinks he really is rational!

So where does this leave China in the dispute, after all my enemy’s enemy is my friend?  It leaves them as their words have shown, on the fence. They have denied backing the assault. They have called for talks. They have bought wheat from Russia. However their representative at UNO first called on both sides to desist from war, then when Putin declared his attack on the “nazis” Beijing's representative stated that his government had their own way of impacting this conflict. Just in case there is any doubt as to the risk to the Chinese carefully laid out foreign policy, Biden warned that any country that backed Russia would be a pariah. Biden has refused to comment on any discussions he may or may not have had with Xi.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It is a long way off to the end of the day but with the forces arraigned against Russia it is hard to imagine any scenarios where they come out on top when this all over, in spite of the fact that Ukraine will be in tatters. 

Putin is dealing against a sophisticated army who have more weaponry than Russia faced in Afghanistan. In addition not too many countries gave a hoot as to what was happening in Afghanistan. Now he has the world against him.

Putin is out of touch with everyone and everybody including the country he rules. One just hopes he does not blow up the world in frustration. If he does he cannot go down in history with the Tzars and all the others. 

There are those that are putting this down to a diplomatic failure by the West. Suppose all bases have to be covered. 

Like it or not our destiny is in the hands of single actors. Would you buy a used car from Trump let alone hand him the keys to the nuclear code again?

Think "Republicans" - Trump has more in common with Putin's Russia than Biden's America.

This travesty is so disgusting that it is unbearably painful to listen to the news.

TRUMP: JAIL TIME? CIVIL WAR? 47th POTUS?

Every political action at the moment involving leader Trump devolves around keeping him out of jail and setting into motion elections that will ensure white minority power - starting in 2022 midterms and culminating in the triumphant return of Il Duce in 2024. The only reason that such a scenario can seriously be muted is that the “Republicans”  have abandoned all principles and are in one way or another supporting this outcome. The sad truth is that they are quite prepared to live with Trump if it means political survival. They cannot defy Trump as they could well lose their Primary nomination encounters. This situation has created a right royal mess in the “Grand Old Party” which in a midterm election with raging inflation and an incumbent President with low approval numbers would under normal circumstances be poised to take both the House and the Senate. The presence of an unhinged Trump with all the attendant problems has altered that certainty.

TRUMP RESORTS TO INCITING "PROTEST" AND "RIGGING" ELECTIONS AS THE “REPUBLICANS” JUST GO ALONG - COULD THIS MEAN CIVIL WAR?

The actions and words of former President Donald J. Trump combined with the reality that the “Republican Party” is really the “Trump Old Party” (TOP), no longer supporting democracy, has increased discussion about the inevitability of Civil War II in America.  Three erudite best seller books have fanned the flames of the prospect of that outcome - “How Civil Wars Start by Barbara Walters, “The Next Civil War” by Stephen Marche and “Divided We Fall” by David French. While the threat of a Civil War and the possibility of the USA becoming an autocracy are often discussed in the same breathe they are not necessarily synonymous. In Trump’s mind the distinction is irrelevant as long as he is President and above the law. However as Trump sees the fantasy of the 2020 election being reversed vanish, his behavior could be considered to be conducive to stoking a civil war type situation while simultaneously subverting democracy so as to be reelected in 2024. Civil War involves violence while an autocracy can be achieved by just manipulating the system to ensure power rendering democracy impotent. Trump is courting both to ensure his viability. He needs to be alive and kicking in 2024 so as to be around “to win” the Presidency. That means the “Republicans” winning in the midterms and, if it is not too late, halting the 1/6 investigation.

Members of the TOP, while they are for the most part repulsed at the violence spurred on by Trump, still have a stomach for an autocracy which will keep them and Trump in power. Jay H. Ell believes that the "violence" which Trump is inciting his supporters towards cannot realistically succeed in returning him or putting him in power. However as the legal probes proceed Trump seems to believe that he needs the threat of violence to protect him.The problem is the mess the non Civil War types in the TOP are facing as they happily back, at a State and National level, non democratic legislation in order to retain power. However this Faustian bargain includes swearing allegiance to Trump, playing down the Capitol insurrection and tolerating his current seditious talk. 

TRUMP GIVES THE CODE FOR A "VIOLENT" UPRISING

Donald Trump is understandably growing more and more desperate as the legal noose begins to tighten around his neck. If you follow his drift he has to create a milieu, a threat or reality to keep him from being indicted. Then if indeed charged  create the fear of G-d into anyone who might dream he was guilty. So he is racking up the rhetoric as his latest Nuremberg style rallies indicate. There are very few constitutional experts that have not interpreted his recent harangue in Texas as a call to arms and predict that the inevitable indictments handed down by prosecutors will include sedition. His words require very little interpretation as to what should follow, “If these vicious, racist prosecutors do anything wrong or illegal. I hope we are to have in this country the biggest protest we have ever had”. In case the latter words need any interpretation the last “protest” resulted in the Capitol insurrection. 

Now up till now his January 6 soldiers have been on their own.Trump has distanced himself from the defendants, whom “he loves” in the Capitol insurrection . However in Texas he gave them his full endorsement, They had been “very unfairly treated”. (Incidentally that is not what the sentencing judges have stated. They want to know why some of these insurrectionists have only been charged with trespassing). He would consider pardoning them, “..if he ran for President and if he won”. Wow if you deliver you will be pardoned as he said he might do. After all he had pardoned Stone, Manafort, Bannon and Flynn but to mention a few. 

The threats against "racist" prosecutors led to the African American Attorney General in Fulton County Georgia, who is well down the road in prosecuting Trump, to ask for protection from the FBI. Maybe some of the muscle that are awaiting trial for sedition in the Capitol invasion will rethink their possible cooperation pleas if they are just three years away from a Donald pardon 

This is all very desperate stuff and weakens the TOP Party no end as things are only going to get worse. Also what is really on the legal horizon and how would insurrection really go?

IMPACT ON THE “REPUBLICANS” OF TRUMP’S LATEST LINE.

The Democrats are supposed to be divided but they are a monolith compared to Trump’s TOP. The majority of “Republican” legislators just want to keep out of his way. In any constituency which is remotely marginal he is a liability. At the same time if you hit Donald’s radar and don’t do the blood oath thing then he will put a primary candidate against you. Then there of course there is his swooning following, they will keep making it difficult to make a concerted move against the lunacy. There are those who hover backwards and forwards like Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell who have however condemned the pardon story. Big time. There are three key players in the category of switching backwards and forwards. the former two and Kevin McCarthy all of whom at one time or another condemned the Capitol violence. 

As matters stand there is open warfare between Trump and the most powerful “Republican” legislator. Mitch McConnell. But they are united on the surface on regaining the House and the Senate. 

Now there is another key constituency - the other presidential hopefuls. The most powerful of these is Florida Governor DeSantis. He and Trump are at each others throats over Covid vaccination. Trump, of late, a supporter because after all he initiated “Operation Warp Speed”, which is accredited for the speedy arrival of a vaccine. DeSantis all but argues vaccination is unpatriotic. Then there is former VP Pence, whom Trump attacks night and day for not “changing the election results”, who has serious real conservative support. This plus a long list of wannabes who slightly distinguish themselves from Trump. None of this crowd have come out in support of Trump’s crescendoring rhetoric violence but they may soon have to comment one way or another as the midterms approach and Trump’s legal fate really gets hairy.

So it is fair to say that the Republican legislators in particular are at sixes and sevens as to how position themselves vis a vis Trump. Lindsey Graham epitomizes the dilemma. He is Trump’s best friend but has twice said enough is enough - most recently in response to Trump’s pardoning the rioters suggestion. Prior to that he warned McConnell that he would not vote for him as Senate Leader if he did not acknowledge Trump as the de facto head of the “Republicans”. Graham’s pitch is that, that is where the base is. The latest however in the back and forth between the pair is that Trump has attacked Lindsey calling him a RINO , that is a "Republican In Name Only". This spat is reminiscent of the fighting and make ups of lovers' tiffs.

This begs the question how really bad Trump’s legal jeopardy really is ? The worse that it becomes, the more central the issue becomes to members of the TOP as soon there will be no place to hide.

TRUMP’S WORSENING LEGAL POSITION

A fair indicator of the seriousness of the situation is Trump’s Texas “call to arms” if he is indicted. He is recruiting his supporters for the biggest “protest” ever. Although the New York and Georgia litigation is significant what may result from the House January 6 investigation can be devastating. The committee has been relentless having interviewed nearly five hundred witnesses and obtained thousands of documents including those that Trump initially tried to tear up and or withhold. The number of former Trump administrators and highly placed Pence staff including his Chief of Staff and Chief Legal Officer, all of whom can give first hand reports of Trump’s  role in attempting to remain in power, is legion. They can list the host of stratagems, from the moment it was obvious that he had lost the election, that Trump engaged in. While it would be nice if Rudi Giuliani would be given immunity in exchange for completing the picture it is hardly necessary. 

The House Committee is going to put on an outline of all the evidence on prime time TV.  It is hard to imagine the Justice Department ignoring this overwhelming case. The long history  will be documented from November 2020 till date to be decided upon. The facts, Jay H. Ell is size will show prima facie evidence of his intent at sedition and a list of other crimes, 

Merrick Garland the Attorney General is a conservative and thorough jurist who should have been on the Supreme Court were it not for McConnell’s infamy. He has pointedly remained independent and is obviously of the belief that it is only in banana republics that you charge your political opposition. However it is going to be more difficult to duck his responsibility with this mountain of proof. Trump in response if his modus operandi is an indicator, is going to up his ante, witness tamper further and in effect call for a revolt. 

Assuming Trump is charged then what?

TRUMP IS INDICTED SO WHAT?

The prospect of a Trump indictment is the basis of the wild speculation of a Civil War. Implicit in a Civil War are two opposing forces, usually armies, fighting it out. Who are the Trump supporters? Well they have to be similar to the crowd that pitched up at the Capitol on 1/6.  He will need new leaders cause many will be still locked up. He can’t pardon them yet as he isn’t President. Jay H. Ell will take any odds that his backers in the TOP won’t be tripping over one another to lead the mob. 

What can the Trumpist "revolutionaries" do? Invade the Capitol again and if successful declare themselves the government and Trump President? There would be a lot more bloodshed as this time they could take their guns out of their cars and hotel rooms. In addition there could be bombings of post offices and other  government buildings. They could pitch up to Trump’s trial and scrap with the counter protestors........ 

In short it could be ugly but no Civil War. The army are not going to go out and join them. No law enforcement entity in any meaningful numbers will defy their oaths and join the resisters. Most significantly those smug members of TOP will have to make choices and lead their constituents one way or another. Very few if any will back the losing side. They will have to do what they should be doing now. How do they really believe this scenario will end?

It is obvious that the “Republicans” are just hoping it will all go away and they can proceed to win the midterms with their voter suppression, gerrymandering of constituencies and the Trump base turning out in full. Their greatest prayer is that Trump will shut up, not back unelectable candidates in the primaries and stop incriminating himself further and further every time he opens his mouth. But that latter is just not going to happen. They are also ignoring the fact that Biden and the Democrats are not going to stand around and do nothing. They have a message of achievement to sell, the inflation should be at least controlled by the midterms while McConnell has admitted that their election is platform is just Biden. Well, Jay H. Ell has news for him, the de facto leader of McConnell’s “party” believes it is he Donald J Trump that is the issue and he will increasingly be out on the hustings to prove it. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Predictions of a Civil War, as polarized as the country may be, are unrealistic. Sabotage and violence are a possibility but nothing that cannot be overcome by law and order. 

Donald J Trump will inevitably face legal liabilities which in addition to triggering support by his radical base will force the leadership of the “Republicans” to make choices. They would be far better to cut themselves loose from Trump now and try and rebuild a party that challenges philosophically and politically the economic and social policies of the Biden Administration.

There are many outcomes to this story from on the one end Trump not being charged and going onto being the forty - seventh President - to the other where his candidates do not even win the 2022 Primaries and him being in jail in time for 2024.

Not to be nosey or anything but did they ever build that wall? And if they did who paid for it? Mexico?