Ever since “That wall came down”, Russia’s influence has waned dramatically. It is no longer the other super power, the USSR, rather it has become, as Barak Obama cruelly labelled it, a regional power. Now with the world in suspense as to whether it will invade Ukraine and the fact that it has a pipeline for Europe’s energy needs, Russia has regained prominence on the world scene. The conventional wisdom is that Putin will not back down in his quest to annex Ukraine. Jay H. Ell would like to put forward a contrarian viewpoint.
There is much to examine as to what has changed since Ronald Reagan proclaimed America as “that shinning city on the hill” and instructed, “Mr. Gorbachev to tear down that wall”. First and foremost Russia then controlled an empire, second of all it ostensibly had a political and economic policy that it followed and finally it had a sort of governmental infrastructure in the politburo which at least had some say and even had effected change. Before the USSR collapsed the government was apparently in total control. Today there is none of that. Instead there is a corrupt kleptocracy, internal dissent, a vastly reduced sphere of influence, a mediocre economy the size of Italy and unashamed totalitarianism without any philosophical justification.
PUTIN KEEPS RUSSIA GOING HAVING RECEIVED MORE THAN A LITTLE HELP FROM HIS FRIEND, TRUMP
What is holding this wobbly Russian infrastructure up is arguably the shrewdest leader on the world scene - Vladimir, Vladimirovich Putin. He has been in effective power in Russia since 1999 as the President with an interim period as Prime Minister. His leadership is now entrenched for a lifetime. What Putin has lacked, without super power status, he has made up with cunning, ruthlessness, megalomania, unparalleled venal greed and most importantly sociopathic manipulative influence by using asymmetrical warfare thereby magnifying his country’s waning strength. And of course he had Donald Trump backing him for four years even over America’s security interests.
In the world of the third millennium Putin, the elder statesman amongst the movement to authoritarianism, was vaulted into prominence when the leader of the world’s major superpower, Donald Trump openly allied with him and Russia from the get go. This to the extent that Trump’s inner circle were all entwined with the Kremlin while Trump’s 2016 “Republican” Party was supposedly at odds with its totalitarian traditional adversary. Putin reached his zenith during this period.
Thus Putin’s fragile ego is being bolstered with the knowledge that not so long ago in the Trump era he was a powerhouse. Putin’s influence depended on trashing democracy in favor of autocracy not only to afford him status but to help him keep control of his own country where he and his oligarchs commandeered all the wealth. America’s descent into the gutter of Trumpism was just the legitimacy he craved for his murderous dictatorship.Trump even backed his assassinations of dissidents. Moreover it proved to his populace, as he jailed and murdered his opposition, that democracy was a failure as even the leader of the world's greatest democracy agreed.
The one glaring proof that old Vlad was a paper tiger was the loss of the Russian Empire coupled with their increasing defection to NATO. The latter’s expansion even if not composed of lily white democracies was the evidence that Putin’s Empire was dwindling dramatically and his former territories were choosing the enemy. Exacerbating this loss was the disappearance, at least from the world scene, of his soulmate Trump. The latter holding NATO in disdain and contempt and willing to minister over its disintegration.
UKRAINE BELONGS TO RUSSIA AND NOW WAS THE TIME TO ACT
So as the new year 2022 began, Putin, his mate Trump in deep dodo and needing a bit of help, because believe it or not Trump’s echo chamber backs Putin’s right to walk into Ukraine. So with all that Vlad made his move. The time was as ripe as it would ever be, His bold thrust would be sure to have the impact of weakening Biden further. What was even more beneficial Biden was on a path away from globalism. The European kingpin of NATO, Angela Merkel was exiting the world stage at a time when Germany was more dependent than ever on Russia’s natural gas with a new pipeline to Europe in the offing and with a weakened Biden, Vladimir Vladimirovich decided to strike. The new pipeline would make him independent of a stable Ukraine where the current pipeline ran through. Also he and China's Xi Jinping were confabbing and closer together than they had been for a long long time. He even had to be feeling a ton more personally wealthy as the price of natural gas had increased four hundred percent.
It had been almost eleven years ago since he annexed Crimea and NATO had learned to live with it so maybe with all the stars aligned what the hell?. What is more Ukraine and Belarus have always been considered part of Mother Russia and Belarus recently called on Russia to put down a rebellion so why not put a non existent one down in Ukraine? Putin had maintained in 2014 when he seized Crimea, (although it wasn’t really him it was some Russian military dressed up in ordinary battle fatigues with a Russian military arsenal), “Russians and Ukrainians are one people”. He warbled on further, “Kiev is the mother of Russian cities. Ancient Russia is our common source and we cannot live without each other”.
One can almost understand Putin’s paranoia when one just glances at the map and sees NATO closing in on Russia, having all the old USSR and Warsaw Pact countries as members in one way or another of the West. The ring around the Russian Western border includes, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Rumania and Bulgaria. The latter had been a part of Russia just thirty years ago.
PUTIN TELEGRAPHS HIS MOVES
Towards the end of 2021 Putin started moving Russian troops to the Ukrainian border.The number estimated to be there, in Russian uniforms this time, is in excess of a a hundred thousand. Putin never one to let the world know that he was actually aware of what he is doing denied that there was any ulterior motive to deploying them there for their winter vacation. He in effect claimed that he was camping them there in anticipation of the NATO response which he would then consider a declaration of war. His Belarusian brothers offered to help. The Russians are already on the Belarusian border which abuts Ukraine.
Putin who on the one hand argued he was not threatening to invade Ukraine offered on the other not to invade if the following demands were met - that NATO withdraw troops and weaponry to where they were in 1997, (ie get out out of the old USSR), that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO and that no NATO troops be allowed to approach Russia’s Western border. Russia claimed that if the West could not guarantee Russia’s security this could lead to a similar response akin to the Cuban crisis in 1962!
On its face Russia would seem to be in a commanding position having surrounded Ukraine. However the Putin moves left him with very little room to maneuver if his demands weren’t met. The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians were pro NATO and the brotherly love was not mutual. In the not so distant past there had been an uprising to throw a pro Russian Premier out who then scuttled to Russia for protection. Russia would have to invade before spring when the slush would impede its weaponry and the occupying force would have to settle in to an Afghanistan like war. His newest best friend Xi Jinping would be pretty angry and distance himself from Vlad till the Winter Olympics were over in late February which would bring the date as close to spring that it hardly matters.
According to Wikipedia Ukraine has increased its military markedly since 2014. Currently it has over two hundred thousand soldiers, fifty three thousand border security guards, and a newly formed National Guard of sixty thousand.
BIDEN AND NATO’S RESPONSE
When Biden’s and NATO’s counter to Putin is examined one wonders what Putin’s intelligence must have been telling him for him to go out on such a limb. One wonders what on earth Putin was thinking although everyone seems terrified. Well Biden certainly wasn’t and made it his business to rally and unite NATO in response. The Russian demands were rejected out of hand. Biden threatened on the one hand sanctions of a nature never seen. It was reported that these included micro chips of which Russia has zilch and would grind the economy to a halt. On the other he sent Secretary Blinken to conduct diplomatic talks with Secretary Sergei Lavrov who Trump had invited into the Oval Office to tell him personally that he had fired the head of the FBI James Comey who was heading the investigation of Russian assistance to get Trump elected.
Biden offered and sent defensive weaponry to Ukraine. He withdrew all non essential personal from the US Embassy, as did the beleaguered Boris Johnson like they were expecting Russia to invade the next day. He put eight thousand five hundred troops on alert. These weren’t foot soldiers rather cyber experts and the like, The Americans have an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean which according to The Guardian it has put under NATO command. Biden apparently is putting a plan together to get natural gas to Germany, the ally most vulnerable to a Russian move to cut off the pipeline running through Ukraine.
Biden is publicly announcing that Russia is about to invade, or take over Kiev, or replace premier Zelensky with a Russian puppet or whatever so as to let Putin know the allies are preparing for war even if he isn’t. This tactic removes the threat and fear Putin is attempting to hold over NATO. All Putin’s efforts at creating suspense have fallen flat. Biden's matter of a fact line is that Putin is about to invade.
Currently there are two hundred American military “advisors” in Ukraine. NATO have over three million troops it could mobilize of which America has seventy five thousand stationed in Europe alone. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary General stated that everything would be executed to protect NATO’s security. Besides the major partners, even Denmark, for example, has sent a frigate to the Baltic and four fighter jets to Lithuania. Everyone is chipping in. Putin has succeeded to reunite NATO.
HOW WILL THIS ALL END
As the action ramps up the Russian rouble took a massive hit and banks had to stop currency trading. Their stock market plummeted but so did the rest of the world's. However Russia’s fragile economy can’t take too much more of this posturing. Ironically it is the Ukrainians who have told NATO to relax and that they are over reacting by withdrawing their embassy personnel. Biden does realize that he cannot humiliate Putin to the extent that he has to scurry back to Moscow because rather than that Putin might abandon his usual measured behavior and go nuclear. So there will have to be some sort of face saving solution.
Secretary Blinken will have discussions and negotiations. Biden will have another one on one with Putin. Honor will be satisfied. They will agree, for example not to have long range or middle range or whatever range ballistic missiles within x number of miles from the Russian Ukrainian border and/or nobody will hold joint exercises near the border and/or whatever,
Jay H. Ell may have read this wrong but Biden and NATO are not going to cave and Russia needs a full scale war like a hole in her head. Biden maybe not be going global and be prepared to put meaningful boots on the ground but he is anxious to let NATO know that “America is Back”. Under these circumstances Ukraine are unlikely to apply to join NATO but it appears they don’t have to as NATO is joining them.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Putin has to be hoping that his mate Trump stays out of jail and has to be backing the “Republican” voter suppression laws. Maybe he will make a guest appearance on the Fox Tucker Carlson show. Or even better Tucker will interview him in Moscow because he was so supportive of Vlad’s move on the Ukrainian border.
The hard part of democracy winning over autocracy is in America itself. Putin should stop trying to make democracy unworkable. Some of the NATO countries are doing a pretty good job of it themselves.
The only difference in the autocratic style of the “Republicans” and Putin is the latter decides who can stand for election and lets everyone vote. The “Republicans” let anyone stand but decide who can vote.
Everyone but everyone including the fake news outlets underestimate Biden.
Putin's best move is to somehow re install the usurped pro Russian leader of Ukraine and respond to calls for help by sending in a hundred thousand troops. If Jay H. Ell has thought of it so has Zelensky, Biden and NATO.
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