PUTIN - WILL HE? WON’T HE? - HE CAN’T BECAUSE TRUMP HAS GONE

 

Ever since “That wall came down”, Russia’s influence has waned dramatically. It is no longer the other super power, the USSR, rather it has become, as Barak Obama cruelly labelled it, a regional power. Now with the world in suspense as to whether it will invade Ukraine and the fact that it has a pipeline for Europe’s energy needs, Russia has regained prominence on the world scene. The conventional wisdom is that Putin will not back down in his quest to annex Ukraine. Jay H. Ell would like to put forward a contrarian viewpoint. 

There is much to examine as to what has changed since Ronald Reagan proclaimed America as “that shinning city on the hill” and instructed, “Mr. Gorbachev to tear down that wall”. First and foremost Russia then controlled an empire, second of all it ostensibly had a political and economic policy that it followed and finally it had a sort of governmental infrastructure in the politburo which at least had some say and even had effected change. Before the USSR collapsed the government was apparently in total control. Today there is none of that. Instead there is a corrupt kleptocracy, internal dissent, a vastly reduced sphere of influence, a mediocre economy the size of Italy and unashamed totalitarianism without any philosophical justification.

PUTIN KEEPS RUSSIA GOING HAVING RECEIVED MORE THAN A LITTLE HELP FROM HIS FRIEND, TRUMP

What is holding this wobbly Russian infrastructure up is arguably the shrewdest leader on the world scene - Vladimir, Vladimirovich Putin. He has been in effective power in Russia since 1999 as the President with an interim period as Prime Minister. His leadership is now entrenched for a lifetime.  What Putin has lacked, without super power status, he has made up with cunning, ruthlessness, megalomania, unparalleled venal greed and most importantly sociopathic manipulative influence by using asymmetrical warfare thereby magnifying his country’s waning strength. And of course he had Donald Trump backing him for four years even over America’s security interests.

In the world of the third millennium Putin, the elder statesman amongst the movement to authoritarianism, was vaulted into prominence when the leader of the world’s major superpower, Donald Trump openly allied with him and Russia from the get go. This to the extent that Trump’s inner circle were all entwined with the Kremlin while Trump’s 2016 “Republican” Party was supposedly at odds with its totalitarian traditional adversary. Putin reached his zenith during this period.

Thus Putin’s fragile ego is being bolstered with the knowledge that not so long ago in the Trump era he was a powerhouse. Putin’s influence depended on trashing democracy in favor of autocracy not only to afford him status but to help him keep control of his own country where he and his oligarchs commandeered all the wealth. America’s descent into the gutter of Trumpism was just the legitimacy he craved for his murderous dictatorship.Trump even backed his assassinations of dissidents. Moreover it proved to his populace, as he jailed and murdered his opposition, that democracy was a failure as even the leader of the world's greatest democracy agreed. 

The one glaring proof that old Vlad was a paper tiger was the loss of the Russian Empire coupled with their increasing defection to NATO. The latter’s expansion even if not composed of lily white democracies was the evidence that Putin’s Empire was dwindling dramatically and his former territories were choosing the enemy. Exacerbating this loss was the disappearance, at least from the world scene, of his soulmate Trump. The latter holding NATO in disdain and contempt and willing to minister over its disintegration.

UKRAINE BELONGS TO RUSSIA AND NOW WAS THE TIME TO ACT

So as the new year 2022 began, Putin, his mate Trump in deep dodo and needing a bit of help, because believe it or not Trump’s echo chamber backs Putin’s right to walk into Ukraine. So with all that Vlad made his move. The time was as ripe as it would ever be, His bold thrust would be sure to have the impact of weakening Biden further. What was even more beneficial Biden was on a path away from globalism. The European kingpin of NATO, Angela Merkel was exiting the world stage at a time when Germany was more dependent than ever on Russia’s natural gas with a new pipeline to Europe in the offing and with a weakened Biden, Vladimir Vladimirovich decided to strike. The new pipeline would make him independent of a stable Ukraine where the current pipeline ran through. Also he and China's Xi Jinping were confabbing and closer together than they had been for a long long time. He even had to be feeling a ton more personally wealthy as the price of natural gas had increased four hundred percent. 

It had been almost eleven years ago since he annexed Crimea and NATO had learned to live with it so maybe with all the stars aligned what the hell?. What is more Ukraine and Belarus have always been considered part of Mother Russia and Belarus recently called on Russia to put down a rebellion so why not put a non existent one down in Ukraine? Putin had maintained in 2014 when he seized Crimea, (although it wasn’t really him it was some Russian military dressed up in ordinary battle fatigues with a Russian military arsenal), “Russians and Ukrainians are one people”. He warbled on further, “Kiev is the mother of Russian cities. Ancient Russia is our common source and we cannot live without each other”.  

One can almost understand Putin’s paranoia when one just glances at the map and sees NATO closing in on Russia, having all the old USSR and Warsaw Pact countries as members in one way or another of the West. The ring around the Russian Western border includes, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Rumania and Bulgaria. The latter had been a part of Russia just thirty years ago.

PUTIN TELEGRAPHS HIS MOVES

Towards the end of 2021 Putin started moving Russian troops to the Ukrainian border.The number estimated to be there, in Russian uniforms this time, is in excess of a a hundred thousand. Putin never one to let the world know that he was actually aware of what he is doing denied that there was any ulterior motive to deploying them there for their winter vacation. He in effect claimed that he was camping them there in anticipation of the NATO response which he would then consider a declaration of war. His Belarusian brothers offered to help. The Russians are already on the Belarusian border which abuts Ukraine. 

Putin who on the one hand argued he was not threatening to invade Ukraine offered on the other not to invade if the following demands were met - that NATO withdraw troops and weaponry to where they were in 1997, (ie get out out of the old USSR), that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO and that no NATO troops be allowed to approach Russia’s Western border. Russia claimed that if the West could not guarantee Russia’s security this could lead to a similar response akin to the Cuban crisis in 1962!

On its face Russia would seem to be in a commanding position having surrounded Ukraine. However the Putin moves left him with very little room to maneuver if his demands weren’t met. The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians were pro NATO and the brotherly love was not mutual. In the not so distant past there had been an uprising to throw a pro Russian Premier out who then scuttled to Russia for protection. Russia would have to invade before spring when the slush would impede its weaponry and the occupying force would have to settle in to an Afghanistan like war. His newest best friend Xi Jinping would be pretty angry and distance himself from Vlad till the Winter Olympics were over in late February which would bring the date as close to spring that it hardly matters. 

According to Wikipedia Ukraine has increased its military markedly since 2014. Currently it has over two hundred thousand soldiers, fifty three thousand border security guards, and a newly formed National Guard of sixty thousand. 

BIDEN AND NATO’S RESPONSE

When Biden’s and NATO’s counter to Putin is examined one wonders what Putin’s intelligence must have been telling him for him to go out on such a limb.  One wonders what on earth Putin was thinking although everyone seems terrified. Well Biden certainly wasn’t and made it his business to rally and unite NATO in response. The Russian demands were rejected out of hand. Biden  threatened on the one hand sanctions of a nature never seen. It was reported that these included micro chips of which Russia has zilch and would grind the economy to a halt. On the other he sent Secretary Blinken to conduct diplomatic talks with Secretary Sergei Lavrov who Trump had invited into the Oval Office to tell him personally that he had fired the head of the FBI James Comey who was heading the investigation of Russian assistance to get Trump elected. 

Biden offered and sent defensive weaponry to Ukraine. He withdrew all non essential personal from the US Embassy, as did the beleaguered Boris Johnson like they were expecting Russia to invade the next day. He put eight thousand five hundred troops on alert. These weren’t foot soldiers rather cyber experts and the like, The Americans have an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean which according to The Guardian it has put under NATO command. Biden apparently is putting a plan together to get natural gas to Germany, the ally most vulnerable to a Russian move to cut off the pipeline running through Ukraine.

Biden is publicly announcing that Russia is about to invade, or take over Kiev, or replace premier Zelensky with a Russian puppet or whatever so as to let Putin know the allies are preparing for war even if he isn’t. This tactic removes the threat and fear Putin is attempting to hold over NATO. All Putin’s efforts at creating suspense have fallen flat. Biden's matter of a fact line is that Putin is about to invade. 

Currently there are two hundred American military “advisors” in Ukraine. NATO have over three million troops it could mobilize of which America has seventy five thousand stationed in Europe alone. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary General stated that everything would be executed to protect NATO’s security. Besides the major partners, even Denmark, for example, has sent a frigate to the Baltic and four fighter jets to Lithuania. Everyone is chipping in. Putin has succeeded to reunite NATO.

HOW WILL THIS ALL END

As the action ramps up the Russian rouble took a massive hit and banks had to stop currency trading. Their stock market plummeted but so did the rest of the world's. However Russia’s fragile economy can’t take too much more of this posturing. Ironically it is the Ukrainians who have told NATO to relax and that they are over reacting by withdrawing their embassy personnel. Biden does realize that he cannot humiliate Putin to the extent that he has to scurry back to Moscow because rather than that Putin might abandon his usual measured behavior and go nuclear. So there will have to be some sort of face saving solution.

Secretary Blinken will have discussions and negotiations. Biden will have another one on one with Putin. Honor will be satisfied. They will agree, for example not to have long range or middle range or whatever range ballistic missiles within x number of miles from the Russian Ukrainian border and/or nobody will hold joint exercises near the border and/or whatever, 

Jay H. Ell may have read this wrong but Biden and NATO are not going to cave and Russia needs a full scale war like a hole in her head. Biden maybe not be going global and be prepared to put meaningful boots on the ground but he is anxious to let NATO know that “America is Back”. Under these circumstances Ukraine are unlikely to apply to join NATO but it appears they don’t have to as NATO is joining them. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Putin has to be hoping that his mate Trump stays out of jail and has to be backing the “Republican” voter suppression laws. Maybe he will make a guest appearance on the Fox Tucker Carlson show. Or even better Tucker will interview him in Moscow because he was so supportive of Vlad’s move on the Ukrainian border.

The hard part of democracy winning over autocracy is in America itself. Putin should stop trying to make democracy unworkable. Some of the NATO countries are doing a pretty good job of it themselves. 

The only difference in the autocratic style of the “Republicans” and Putin is the latter decides who can stand for election and lets everyone vote. The “Republicans” let anyone stand but decide who can vote.

Everyone but everyone including the fake news outlets underestimate Biden. 

Putin's best move is to somehow re install the usurped pro Russian leader of Ukraine and respond to calls for help by sending in a hundred thousand troops. If Jay H. Ell has thought of it so has Zelensky, Biden and NATO.

HAS THE SUPREME COURT BECOME THE USA’S POLITICAL FORCE?

It isn’t in a vacuum that five Supreme Court Judges have alluded to the perception and the reality that their Court has become a political entity - this, in a political environment where  the Constitution has all but entrenched the minority’s ability to cause deadlock. This question has become forefront in a country that is experiencing a never ending pandemic in which close on a million of its citizens have perished. 

Nine Supreme Court Judges, who have received no electoral mandate nor specialist knowledge in arenas where they adjudicate, are the final arbiters of how America is run. The American Constitution and its Amendments are purportedly the instruments as to how to carry out the Founders Mission, “That all men were created equal” and that it is “We the people” that decide. The question is how does this eighteenth century document stand up in 2022 and whether the Court's rulings are in sync with that Mission? 

THE SUPREME COURT, AMERICA’S MISSION AND THE CONSTITUTION.

The Supreme Court’s current approval ratings are at its lowest ebb ever hovering at a forty percent, down from a once high of eighty - eight percent. The fact that the Constitution does not jive with the times should surprise no one. It was written at a time when there were no AK 47s, no science on foetal viability and no billionaires financing elections and appointments including those of Supreme Court Judges. Nor were there medications or vaccines to abort a public health crisis. 

The six Conservative Judges sitting on today’s court consider themselves, to a lesser or greater extent, strict Constitutionalists. The latter believe that the Constitution should be interpreted in the mindset and intent of those who wrote it in the eighteenth century. The Conservative Justices are all creatures of the Federalist Society whose credo is just that. The Federalist Society has financed conservative judges campaigns, nurtured and promoted them and offered their names up to the Republican politicians for appointment.

The Constitution was based on the writings of the Enlightenment philosophers and created the implicit contract that citizens would give up certain of their freedoms to elected officials in exchange for their safety and equitable management of society’s institutions and their rights. This objective was to be carried out within the framework of the mission statement as enunciated by Jefferson in the Declaration of Independence. The central irony for the Constitutionalist Supreme Court Judges was that Jefferson never believed that the Constitution as written could apply to future generations.

So before even beginning to look at the current threat to democracy that exists in the country it would be instructive to learn how Jefferson viewed the durability of the Constitution and the role the Supreme Court might play in the governance of society. As to the durability Jefferson shared his thoughts with James Madison his great friend, a future President and the Founder, who more than anyone else wrote the Constitution. (Jefferson is the selfsame philosopher politician who was Vice President Pence’s inspiration not to execute an illegal coup and throw over the 2020 democratically government)

Jefferson to Madison: “…. between society and society and generation and generation there is no mutual obligation…the Earth belongs to the living generation…Every Constitution and every law naturally expires after nineteen years. If it be enforced any longer then it is an act of force not of right…”

So Jefferson would appear to disabuse Justice Thomas’s interpretation, for example, that he had in mind and intent that the Second Amendment would enshrine the right for citizens to roam the streets with increasingly sophisticated weaponry such as AK47’s and that abortion was illegal because its right had not been written into the Constitution. Jefferson specifically stated that the Constitution should be interpreted by future generations and even abandoned. 

If the Constitution had not evolved neither Justice Amy Barrett nor Justice Thomas would be around to uphold their weird legal and philosophical edicts and force them on a long suffering public. Nor could have Jefferson et al imagined that the Court would take over the role of bodies of specialists whether they be medical, or any other. He might also have hoped for consistency at least in their rulings. But first and foremost he would have expected the Court to act in terms of the time they were operating in. 

WHAT EXACTLY DID THE CONSTITUTION SAY ABOUT THE SUPREME COURT AND WHERE ARE WE NOW?

So what did the Constitution say about the Supreme Court whom the Federalists swear blind are the arbiters of the way society should function? The simple answer is “Not Much”. It is all covered in Article iii Section I: “ The Judicial Power of the United States, shall be vested in one supreme Court,  and in such inferior Courts as the Congress may form from time to time ordain and establish. Although the Constitution establishes the Supreme Court, it permits Congress how to organize it. Little did the Founders guess that it would be the Supreme Court that in the year 2022 organizes the Congress and every thing else!

 The Constitution elaborated very few powers of the Supreme Court. It was left to Congress and the Court itself. It is fair to say the latter has not been shy to become the final arbiters of everything. In effect they had British law as precedent but the Court evolved literally into a powerful third branch of Government. Nowhere in the Western world has the Judicial system taken on such a dramatic central, powerful and political role.  

Nothing however is written in stone. For example the number of Judges has fluctuated over the centuries, Nothing is sacred about the body some of whose conservative judges have been ordained by the Federalist Society with millions and millions of dark money for campaigns to get them elected. A simple majority of one vote by a determined political party could increase their number to thirteen, for example. 

So onto a few examples of the far reaching rulings the life long arbiters of the way society is run that the Supreme Court has made in the past decade.

VACCINE MANDATES,  EXPERT EVIDENCE AND THE ALL KNOWING SUPREME COURT

One of the points that Chief Justice Roberts differs from his colleagues is that he aspires to just chip away at long standing societal norms rather than just axe them in one fell swoop. What the Court decided in relation to vaccine mandates serves to illustrate this point. The Court believes that they rather than expert bodies created by Congress should have the final say on Public Health.  OSHA, (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) and the CDC, (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) are the Congress sanctioned expert bodies to decide inter alia how workers should be kept safe. In other countries these bodies are also made up of the experts in their field and are afforded “quasi judicial” status. Their rulings can only be judicially overturned if the decisions they came too could not be those of reasonable men. Put another way - even if those sitting on the Courts disagreed with their opinions they could not overturn them if they were “reasonable”. The current Supreme Court shows no such humility or deference to knowledge and science that emanate from these Congress sanctioned specialist bodies.

Currently close on a million Americans have died in a pandemic, and hospitalizations are at their highest since the start of this plague. While the current variant of the offending Covid virus is not nearly as virulent as others it is devastatingly infective. Expert opinion was that the unvaccinated especially those with active Covid were putting even those vaccinated at risk especially the elderly and medically compromised. OSHA estimated that six thousand deaths and two hundred and fifty thousand hospital admissions could be avoided if the Government vaccination mandate that companies with over a hundred workers would execute. Those workers who refused for one or other reason would have weekly testing.

The learned majority of Conservative Judges were not much interested in these statistics and warnings and the fact that the knowledge was gleaned from expert bodies sanctioned by Congress and acted upon by a Constitutionally appointed President. They substituted their monumental misguided interpretation of  "Constitutional freedoms" for individuals at the expense of the innocents and the economy not to mention the situation of the hospitals which were at breaking point. Reading the transcript of the proceedings showed the glaring ignorance of the Court as a whole on the issue. You could have been excused if you thought you were listening to a right wing radio show with some of Justice Alito’s pontifications on the subject. 

Then in an inexplicable illustration of tautologous legal logic they allowed the recommendations to stand for the Health Care Workers who served Medicare and Medicaid patients. In this instance Justice Roberts and Kavanaugh joined the three liberal judges. Their rationale was that they were following the dictum that doctors should do no harm!

VOTING RIGHTS AND THE ROBERTS SUPREME COURT’s DEVASTATING IMPACT

Without laboring the point that all citizens white, black, male, female, land owners and non land owners would not have the right to vote if the strict constitutionalists would have their way, the country is facing its largest existential crisis since Jim Crow. Not only is there widespread voter suppression, voter legislation, which controls the procedure and who certifies the results, are on a line. This would never have happened had not the Roberts Supreme Court capriciously declared a section of the 1965 Voter Rights unconstitutional in 2013. They stated that the provisions of Section 5 were no longer necessary when they patently were, thereby nullifying Congressional legislation. No longer did the segregationist states need permission to introduce changes to their voting procedures. Let that sink in. Congressional Legislation was axed because the Roberts Court believed it was no longer necessary. The fact is that over two hundred discriminatory measures have been mooted and several put into legislation. This is as result of the Roberts Court interfering with a Law passed by Congress. All of which will impact the ability of minorities to vote.

Just in case this was not enough to emasculate free and fair elections the Roberts Court had previously dealt a blow in the “Citizen’s United Case” to the franchise. There the Roberts Court eviserated a bipartisan Campaign Reform Act which inter alia attempted to keep colossal sums of money out of American political campaigns.The essential rationale behind this bizarre ruling was that money was the equivalent to free speech so you could spend as much as you liked because you were exercising your First Amendment Rights. To overcome the problem that tons of this money came from corporations the Robert’s Court declared corporations as individuals. The Constitutionalists had changed the definition of who the Constitution gave rights too. Need Roberts, Thomas et al be reminded in their alleged strict interpretation of the eighteenth century document that corporations in the modern day sense did not exist. 

So whether Roberts likes it or not his Court has paved the way for Trump’s Big Lie to be enshrined in law.

THE ROBERTS SUPREME COURT JUDGES AND POLITICS

It is not surprising that five of the current Judges have  commented, in one way or another, on the fact that they are regarded as, to use Justice Amy Barrett’s term - political hacks. Justice Barrett opined that at an occasion fittingly hosted by the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, who rushed her nomination through. Her nomination was against his professed principle that in an election year you don’t appoint Supreme Court Judges. He refused to consider Merrick Garland’s nomination a year before the 2016 election but rushed Judge Barrett's through a week before the 2020 election.

If Justice Barrett didn’t want to be regarded as a political hack she might have shied away from that occasion where she was introduced by Plato’s original political hack, Senator Mitch McConnell. She also might have refused the nomination not only because of the circumstances in which it occurred but because President Trump announced that he was only appointing Judges that agreed with him. She attended a massive Covid spreading WhiteHouse event where Trump probably positive for Covid introduced her to the faithful.

Justice Thomas, who is the most “Constitutionalist” justice of them all stated at speech at Notre Dame University that “The Court that was thought to be the least dangerous branch may have become the most dangerous”. That was a rare insight from Justice Thomas who with his wife are considered right of Ghenghis Khan. While he may not have really agreed that the Court had become the “most dangerous”, his remarks acknowledged that the Supreme Court has become front and central in American politics. 

Justice Kavanaugh made his political feelings known  at his confirmation, “… (this) effort has been a calculated and orchestrated political hit, fueled with apparent pent up anger pent - up anger about President Trump and the 2016 election….” Kavanaugh too like Barrett had they had any ounce of integrity would have not accepted the nomination that belonged to Merrick Garland. Nor would he make it quite clear where he stood politically.

Then there is Chief Justice Roberts himself who has a strong sense of history and somehow believes he can escape it. If he had had four Judges who profess that they interpret the Constitution as Jefferson intended to be, as a living document and he was the swing vote, he may have had a chance. But tough luck he has been exposed by the duplicity of McConnell and his unholy alliance with Trump who have overwhelmed the court with “Constitutionalists”.The upshot is that he is no longer  the de facto leader of the Court. It is Thomas’s Court. 

In fairness to Roberts he did try to shut Trump up by commenting that there were no Bush Judges, Obama Judges nor Trump Judges, “There are just Judges”. In fairness his claim to a large extent is true in the lower Federal Courts but Jay H. Ell agrees more with Justice Sotomayor as to the Supreme Court. She when commenting on the patently political direction the court was moving when allowing the State of Texas to override the Constitution by simply using an unconstitutional mechanism to overturn a Federal law that was enshrined by the self same Supreme Court stated, “Will this institution survive the stench that this creates in the public perception that the Constitution and its reading are just political acts? I don’t see how that is possible.”.

WHAT NOW AT THE END OF THE DAY

So here we are waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on the whether they can uphold the Constitutional rights of both the elected Executive Branch and elected Congress. Private citizen Trump, who ostentatiously appointed three of the Judges because they were going to do what he wanted them to do, has appealed to the Court to negate a lawful subpoena for documents that rest in the National Archives. Bearing in mind the fate of democracy in the USA and the precedents on matters such as this the fact that this issue has been languishing in the Court for over two weeks when it should have been rejected by return of post is cause for concern.

Jay H. Ell does not believe that the current Supreme Court are functioning in terms of the Mission statement of the Declaration of Independence. 

Maybe it’s too late but the time has come to take the Constitution and Thomas Jefferson’s interpretation of it seriously and let Congress “Organize it”. It will need Biden winning both Houses in the midterms with at least fifty - two Democrats in the Senate because Manchin and Sinema have sided with Jefferson Davis over Abraham Lincoln. 

The unvaccinated Novak Djokovic can play in the US Open. The Supreme Court has granted him his freedom to play. After all the tennis court is his workplace and the Court has ruled that you can’t initiate vaccine mandates there. 

POST 1/6 : BIDEN v TRUMP - DEMOCRACY v AUTOCRACY

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With the sombre anniversary of January 6, 2021 just past, the empty side of the Republican Chamber, bar the Cheneys, at the memorial services at the Capitol was a metaphor for the “Republicans”, minimizing the internal terrorist assault that nearly effected a coup d’etat by the Trump inspired mob. It was a stark reminder that unlike 9/11 where there was bipartisan unity in the face of an external terrorist threat to the Republic, the “Republicans” were seen supporting an internal one. In a year they had transformed themselves into a lawless band supporting autocracy under the leadership of Donald J. Trump. 

The only democratic game in town is the Democratic Party. Their leader President Joseph Biden took off the gloves for the first time, all but calling Trump a terrorist, while crystallizing the future of the American Republic between a dictatorship and a democracy. The days of benign Uncle Joe were over. The question now was what lay ahead for America - autocracy or democracy? The most immediate challenges at the moment in the struggle for democracy were voting rights and the Supreme Court decision on whether to release the Trump WhiteHouse logs relating to the coup attempt, 

The former Republican Party, who are the ones now responsible for Donald Trump’s prominence, have given up the ghost in the fight for democracy and out of a desire for power have accepted that they are no longer the Grand Old Party, (GOP). They are the the Trump Old Party, (TOP). This leaves only the Democratic Party, (DP), to act on Benjamin Franklin’s iconic warning, that America would have a Republic, “If they could keep it”.

Leadership is what matters and whatever is said about Trump he is a leader. The world would have been a different place without Hitler or Churchill. Likewise America would be in a different place if Kevin McCarthy, “Republican” leader of the House and Mitch McConnell “Republican” leader in the Senate stuck to what they said about Trump when they were still in the old GOP. They are now obsequiously accepting that Trump is their leader. However the GOP/TOP is in a shambolic state. The only identifiable “policies” that they have is that they accept Trump controls their base and that the Big Lie is their gospel. In addition their sole objective is power and are on the side of autocracy versus democracy. 

Where the “Republicans” constitute the greatest danger to democracy is in the “Republican” controlled States where there is a shameless rigging of the voting system to ensure that, sans minority electoral participation, they can shepherd in an autocracy. The “Republican” States' co conspirators in the Senate are protecting their efforts hiding shamelessly behind a procedural mechanism, the filibuster, which was last extensively utilized  to fight the sixties’ Civil Rights. It is an irony that the “Republicans” are revisiting the freedom that many of them voted for in the sixties so as to entrench white power.  

LEADER BIDEN AND THE FUTURE

Biden’s leadership skills are underrated. While not processing the charisma of an Obama or a Trump, his lack of glibness lends a sincerity and conviction. Matt Lewis the conservative columnist was blown over by Biden’s 1/6  memorial address, claiming that it ushered him into “becoming President”. Biden cannot be dissatisfied with year one of his Presidency. There is consensus that the paralyzing Covid crisis will have receded by the end of the month, he has provided enough money in the Covid relief package and together with the large infusion of money in the infrastructure package the problem on the horizon is not stagnation but inflation. The unemployment numbers are less than four percent, a decades old low, and the companies are spewing out profits. The small agricultural owners are singing his praises as are most of the Governors for his Covid management. He obviously wants his social “Build Back Better” bill to get through but that has to take a back seat to the priority to save democracy.

Biden behind the scenes has mustered all that he is able  to convey the urgency and the importance of dispensing with the arcane filibuster so as to pass the Voting Rights Bills in the Senate. He is off to Georgia, which is ground zero in the battle, to campaign publicly. Senate leader Schumer is not delaying bringing the issue the floor for all the world to see the DP commitment and to test whether Manchin and Sinema will end up on the wrong side of history together with the “Republicans”. There is a need to push this issue to the forefront particularly as TOP lieutenant Mitch McConnell offers instead legislation to ensure that the Vice President legislatively cannot manipulate the outcome. For Senator McConnell’s information, the present incumbent of the position is a Democrat and it is a self serving “compromise” lest a Democrat try and subvert democracy in 2024 via the Vice President as was mooted by Trump. 

Politics is a zero sum game. For practical purposes it is still Biden versus Trump so it is useful to analyze where that is at.

LEADER TRUMP AFTER 1/6 ANNIVERSARY

Trump cancelled his competitive 1/6 Press Conference when he realized that he was not going to receive much live coverage. To his chagrin besides the usual suspects, CNN and MSNBC, both FOX and his newest best friend NEWSMAX covered Biden live. He issued the usual screed claiming that he is really the legitimate President tra la la. He stated that he was going to Arizona to hold yet another rally to tell his old story. Like ABBA’s Mamma Mia the show never ends. Just for the record the Republican Arizona election board have just told the “Republican” State legislature for the zillionth time that there was no fraud in that election. 

Trump’s major problem lies with the January 6 House of Representative investigation. They have gone gangbusters and obviously know everything there is to know about the months’ long conspiracy. When you are asking former VP Pence nicely to come to talk to you this obviously is as near to the end that makes very little difference. (Pence’s Chief of Staff has already testified so who needs Pence anyway?). With close on three hundred and fifty witnesses they obviously have the conspiracy down to a T and a minute by minute commentary on what Trump was doing while democracy was almost in its death throws. There is one piece that would seal the deal and that is hung up in the Supreme Court, but more on that later. 

The most scary scenarios for dear Donald is Liz Cheney, with her daddy by her side, who is commenting daily about a criminal referral to the Justice Department. The second terrifying story line is the open holdings the committee are scheduled to hold on the evidence they have. These hearings will make for compelling TV and will feature the conspiracy in every detail that they will be referring to Attorney General Merrick Garland. It will be stage managed. Can you imagine, for example, the impact of a the stream of convicted rioters confessing they did it because of what the Supreme Leader told them and now he has abandoned them?

Then there are the subpoenas from New York prosecutors where the finance investigations have proceeded non stop. With his company and his chief company financial officer criminally charged and with his life long accountant singing like all immunized, (against prosecution), birds, the noose is tightening. Then there is his most flagrant breech of election law, all on tape, being investigated in Georgia. And all the civil cases including those that have resulted from 1/6 added. 

The perception is that he controls the TOP even with those who are at heart of the old GOP and that his candidates will win the Primaries. Whether they do or they don’t they then have to win their respective elections. Jay H. Ell is not so sure that he still has the draw that he used to have as he is fresh back from a flop of a paid gig with him and Bill O’Reilly. So the time has come to look at his support as well as the problems they face. 

TRUMP’S, SUPPORT 

Just over sixty- five percent of the TOP, which has lost at least twenty percent of the old GOP, back Trump to the hilt and believe the Big Lie. Nothing gives the democratic news channel the giggles more than gleefully interviewing the Trump faithful and hear them say that there is overwhelming support that the election was stolen. It isn’t actually funny. Trump’s lingering power lies in this statistic and what has followed has been the legislative enshrining of the Big Lie in the swing States to ensure that “The Steal” will never have to be “Stopped” again.All this which to date has been backed up by the Murdoch propaganda machine which would have made Goebbels proud.

Trump’s voters are the rural inhabitants, non college educated, Evangelicals and white males, mainly blue collar former middle class working types. He has lost forever the Republican Bush/Cheney establishment group and for practical purposes all the real Republican intelligentsia who are regular features on all the sane channels. For the most part they have joined the DP as Steve Schmidt has rationalized, “I am a one issue voter and that issue is democracy”.Trump’s most vociferous group are the militia types who made up the ruck of the Capitol invasion - the Q,Anon conspirators, the Oath Keepers, The Proud Boys, the Three Percenters and so on. About fifteen percent of those are ex militia types. He has also legislatively a crew led by Matt Gaetz and Majorie Taylor Green and a couple such as Jim Jordan and Josh Hawley who are allegedly implicated in the conspiracy. 

The "intellectual" leaders of the militia type crowd are an amorphous lot from the anarchist Steven Bannon, Michael Flynn as well as the lawyers that represented Trump all over the show and produced memoranda as to how to subvert the constitution. According to reports they are all scrapping among themselves for money and position. The leaders that do the fighting are in jail or awaiting trial while Trump plays golf. 

Much is made of the militia types especially when the fear of civil war is brought up. However the facts that the Q of Q’Anon is no longer speaking, that the future symbol for the struggle, the Kenosha shooter Rittenhouse, claims that his Trumpy lawyers just used him to make money, that Q’Anon followers aren’t talking to Flynn because he claimed that the Q’Amon conspiracy theories were “nonsense”, that Alex Jones declared Trump “evil” because he supports vaccination and that Candace Owens wrote Trump off as “old” for the same reason, means that the gang leaders are very much at odds. In addition this crowd together with Rudi Giuliani are in deep deep money trouble. They with the leaders of the Charlottesville riot have had, in civil cases, astronomical sums awarded against them or are facing billion dollar claims for their outrageous defamatory claims that backed up the “Big Lie”.

What this beheading of Trump’s militant sycophantic followers’ leadership means at the voting booths no one can tell. It certainly has impacted the turnout of their 1/6 rallies in support of the “Capitol riot political prisoners”. The crowd at the main event in Washington could be counted in the tens and those throughout the country had smatterings. How this will play in the midterms no one knows but with both the white collar and mob leadership at sixes and sevens and as the trials in Washington proceed Trump is AWOL and distancing himself from those that were once “special” and whom “we loved”.

Trump has turned on his Fox echo chamber claiming that he will start a media company that will wipe them out. Fox star, Tucker Carlson is fighting with Ted Cruz who is the natural right wing successor to The Donald while Hannity is at a standstill while Fox decides how he should respond to the invitation to explain why he thought the Capitol invasion was a disaster. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Republic is once again under severe strain as it is half way to autocracy.

The immediate outcome of the vote in the Senate on Voting Rights is crucial both because of the battle between autocracy and democracy and the fact that the angry African American civil rights group demand action not words. They believe Biden can enact miracles. 

The Supreme Court decision on whether to hear Trump’s docket to stop the release of the WhiteHouse logs is highly consequential. The latter is all that the January 6 House Committee need to dot the I’s and cross the t’s in the conspiracy. The Court precedent is clear - Nixon, the Executive President, had to produce the tapes to the investigating Legislature - an unanimous Supreme Court decision. In this instance both Governmental agencies, the Biden Executive and the Legislature, are ad idem that the logs be released. Trump, a private citizen, has no standing. But as Associate Justice Sotomayor so aptly concluded the SupremeCourt is quite prepared to accept, “..the stench that…. The Constitution and its reading are just political acts”. So who knows? 

The Trump dominated Supreme Court is destined to play an oversize roll in the US political future in more ways way than one but Jay H. Ell will save that analysis for another day. 

It is a long long way to the midterms and sooner or later the high ratings for Biden’s policies have to impact his lower personal ratings. That will influence the midterms.

Will the Trump’s legal woes consolidate the support of his cult or enrage them against him? Likewise will the unfolding of the conspiracy on prime time TV in all its gory details result in a digging in on the Big Lie or unify the country as did the Watergate hearings?

It ain’t over till the fat lady sings and as you know she can go on forever as well.