In spite of the fact that the House Committee investigating the January 6 insurrection produced what appears to be incontrovertible evidence of a conspiracy to conduct a coup by Trump, his Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Republican legislators, and members of his administration there is a belief that nothing will come of it all.There is an air of despondency and hopelessness hanging over the protagonists of democracy in the country. The euphoria that accompanied the victory of Biden has been eclipsed by the belief that Trump is omnipotent. The teflon “genius” who for seventy years has played the system has fooled his party, including the legislative branch of it, that insurrection and sedition is no big deal. All this sends shudders down freedom lovers who believe that the Democrats are powerless amidst this onslaught. They are expecting the inevitable as the omnipotent Trump vulgarly rides roughshod over every value this country purports to stand for.
The Trump opponents are punch drunk and sickened by his daily assaults on decency and his sullying of his office. To put his infamy in some perspective Boris Johnson’s premiership is in jeopardy because he allowed a Xmas Party in his office during Covid restrictions.
There is also blind indifference to the fact that the Republican Party is in a shambles. The latter can only be made worse by the fact that Trump, who has commandeered the GOP turning into the TOP, has not as his number one policy, abortion, guns or even “To Build That Wall” but loyalty to himself and as gospel that he won the 2020 election. With the same approach he managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with regard to the Senate. He is so paranoid that he told his soul mate Bibi Netanyahu to f…k off because the Israeli former Premier
acknowledged that Biden was President.
Trump’s pathology is not a winning formula. He needs to knock it off but he won’t because it is all about him. If he accepts that Biden is President then he has to accept that he is a “loser” and that is out of the question. His approval ratings are as low as they ever were and Biden who has seen the worst has a higher rating even now. The belief is that Trump will dodge the repercussions of the coup and run again and be President. It is just not going to happen.
THE TRUMP OLD PARTY, (TOP), “TENT” - THERE IS NO ROOM FOR THE FORMER GOP AT THE MAD HATTER’S TEA PARTY.
By necessity the two political parties in America have to be coalitions of interest groups. Unlike Germany or Israel, when the coalition takes place after the election, in America the differing groups join into one tent or the other before hand. The former Republican Party was a conglomeration of true fiscal and small government conservatives, the rural population, big business, non college degree citizens and right wing groups. Now there is only one criterion for acceptance in the TOP and that is acceptance that the election was stolen form Trump. Even more sinister is the corollary that this involves, in the future, the manipulation of elections, voter suppression and gerrymandering of voter districts thereby ensuring that G-d’s chosen one is crowned.
To ensure his hold over the TOP Trump has made it quite clear that every position in every State that matters will have his candidate in the “Republican” Primaries. Georgia is ground zero where he has candidates challenging the "Republican" Governor and Secretary of State. The political web site “Five Thirty - Eight”, ran a piece where they argued that Trump’s endorsements in the forthcoming midterm elections were, “Earlier, Bolder and More Dangerous” than in 2019. For example, at this stage in 2019 he had endorsed ten candidates as opposed to the forty - six he has given his imprimatur. Of the latter at least double are non incumbents as compared to 2019 therefore increasing his risk of being a “loser”. His poster endorsements at the moment are David Perdue to challenge the incumbent Republican Governor of Georgia as well as Kelly Tsibaka in Alaska against Senator Lisa Murkowski. Considering that the latter has once won in as a write in candidate in the past, has the backing of Senate Minority Leader McConnell and has a large war chest, this decision is politically insane but nobody has claimed that Trump is sane. Trump has signaled primary opposition to anyone that has voted for his impeachment, not opposed Biden’s electoral victory, and or voted for any Biden legislation thereby giving Biden a “victory” which implicitly obviously is a loss to him. Soon we will be talking big numbers.
Then there are those “Republicans” that pretend that the insurrection was not such a big “thing” and also accept that Biden is the President. Those include potential “GOP" presidential candidates Mike Pence and Chris Christie. The latter now states that Trump gave him Covid, another no no. They may want to remain in the tent but Trump will not let them. There are several others like Ron de Santis of Florida who have not officially announced that they will hold back if Trump runs….
In the legislature apart from a few diehards, the GOP Senate Caucus have no room at the TOP table either because they still back McConnell as their leader in spite of Trump’s maneuvering to get him axed. In the House things look a little better but Trump is not prepared to let sleeping dogs lie and has not forgiven House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy for his blistering attack on him following the January 6 insurrection. This allows loons like Majorie Taylor - Greene to state their unhappiness at McCarthy’s validity to become the next Speaker of the House. Trump further allows the absurdity of his former Chief of Staff’s repeated suggestion that Trump himself be appointed to the Speaker post prior to his 2024 election to a third term as President! This really is Trump siding with the Republican Freedom Caucus the successor to the appropriately entitled Tea Party Caucus.
The Freedom Caucus of the House Republican Party which is the group that is de facto Trump’s army in the House have as their most vocal representatives Majorie Taylor Greene, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Mo Brooks, Louie Gohmert, Devon Nunes and Lauren Boebert. Every one of these are ripe for Democratic Party adverts because they are so way off the charts that the fact that Trump regards them as his loyal foot soldiers is enough to send the independents in the other direction. In total The Freedom Caucus have forty - six of the two hundred and twelve Republican members of the House. Presumably all the others support McCarthy otherwise how would be leader at the moment? So Trump is even playing games with the House Republicans by not being behind their elected leader.. No room in the tent for all of them. That means Trump is at war with the leadership of the Republicans in both Houses as well as the majority of the legislators.
Trump is playing high stakes poker with a very poor hand. He still has the support of the majority of the base. But that wasn’t even enough to stop the loss of two crucial Senate seats to the Democrats in 2020. He is not much interested in policy. it is all about him and should he lose out on some of the key fights in 2022 his candidature for 2024 would be in jeopardy. However as Jay H Ell has blogged Trump will have been indicted by then.
TRUMP’S LEGAL WOES.
There is anger amongst the Democratic base that Biden’s Justice Department isn’t doing anything to put the seditionist Trump behind bars. While no one really knows what Attorney General Garland is doing there is enough going on in New York and Georgia to believe that an indictment is in the works, In New York the President and his Organization are facing criminal and civil charges. The Trump Organization and Chief Financial Officer have already been criminally charged for fraud. The New York Attorney General has subpoenaed Trump for a January 7 2022 deposition in the Civil case. In Civil litigation you cannot plead the Fifth Amendment you have to answer questions. However the answers can be used in criminal proceedings! Michael Cohen, Trump’s personal lawyer, who was jailed for doing Trump’s bidding, has stated that the documents that he has handed over to the New York prosecutors alone are enough to indict Trump and his children. In Georgia grand juries have been installed to decide whether Trump should be charged for attempting to interfere with that electoral result.
What Trump should be most worried about is the House of Representative’s enquiry into January 6. While the proceedings have been largely in camera enough has been leaked to point to a vast conspiracy to overthrow the duly elected President. There have been three hundred witnesses including fairly high level officials who had to know as much as the key people that are now resisting. Steve Bannon has been charged with criminal contempt. Mark Meadows has now decided not to cooperate having provided six thousand pages of documents to the committee. These include a power point print out of alternatives to change the result of the election, e mails to him and Congress members and the invoking of the National Guard to protect Trump supporters thereby implying that there was going to be violence. Meadows has argued that Trump’s claim for Executive Privilege has not been finally adjudicated on and he is waiting on that before agreeing to sit for a deposition. The committee is unmoved and in a live devastating meeting Meadows was referred for criminal prosecution.
Trump should take note that those being subpoenaed now are his inner circle. Three are going to plead the Fifth Amendment against self incrimination - Roger Stone, Alex Jones, and John Eastman. In so doing they are accepting that they are in criminal legal jeopardy for their actions. Bannon, who has already been criminally charged for ignoring the January 6 House Committee’s subpoena, wants to turn his trial into a circus and is not on the same page as Trump at the moment. These subpoenas mean that the committee is nearing the end of its investigative phase. Liz Cheney, the Republican Vice Chairman has stated that there are going to be weeks of publicly televised hearings.
The committee is waiting for the cherry on the top, Trump’s archival records of the period involved. Needless to say he has used his usual tactic of court challenges to prevent their emergence. However the courts have dealt with it at break neck speed and at latest the Supreme Court will get it in another two weeks. Commentators from all sides of the political spectrum are forecasting that either the Supreme Court won’t even hear the challenge or on the basis of the Nixon precedents Trump will lose and his records will be released..
If the outcome of the Committee’s findings are as expected criminal indictments will follow as sure as night follows day.
WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON
Trump’s militant supporters in the Charlottesville riots are all facing bankruptcy following civil litigation. One by one the insurrectionists who carried Trump’s water to the Capitol on January 6 are being charged and sentenced in the courts. Trump has abandoned them like he abandons anyone who can no longer be of any use to him. The more serious charges are still to follow. Judges have been scathing in their rulings of the genesis of this treason, many blaming Trump by name. The upshot is that Trump’s stormtroopers have been eviscerated, demoralized, bankrupted and jailed.
Then the two key Trump issues anti abortion and pro guns have been realized. Both are unpopular so they can only bring out his base which is not enough. All in all a sober assessment reveals that is not to rosy for The Donald.
BUT………
The fact that democracy came so close to being unravelled still lingers on the minds of many. The actions of "Republican" State legislators to suppress voting and even reverse results send shudders done the spine of Democrats. But what mostly terrifies them is the belief that Trump is some Houdini that can escape the forces that are closing in on him. The body politic have seen time after time behavior that would have ruined any Presidency go by without recriminations. Barr nullified the Mueller investigation into Trump's collusion with Russia and his obstruction of justice. He escaped two impeachments where his actions were egregious.
He has been involved in over four thousand litigations of one sort or another and there he is alive and kicking still collecting billions on phony schemes. He has tried them all - Universities, Foundations and even the Presidency and has survived. So those that think single handedly he can change American Democracy have much to base their fear on. Jay H Ell believes not but his calculations could also be clouded by wishful thinking!
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Charging political opponents with crimes is commonly associated with banana republics. However, Israel, France, South Africa and Italy have not hesitated in the recent past. In the American situation at this time the responsibility on the shoulders of attorney generals is humungous in a country that is so divided. There is only one outcome that is definitely worse for American democracy than prosecuting Trump and that is not prosecuting him.
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