Whichever way the American scene is viewed it is a battle between democracy and autocracy. Democrats are in a frenzy about the Virginian and New Jersey election results and a section are blaming it on Biden. The old style Republicans believe that they can dump Trump after the showing of two old fashioned old style Republicans in the ten month elections after Biden’s installation. The wings of the Democratic Party are busy blaming each other and there is an air of doom and gloom from all and sundry. The only three that don’t seem much fussed themselves about Virginia et al are Biden himself, Schumer and Pelosi.
Whatever the old Republicans believe they are aiding and abetting Trump’s move to autocracy. Trump’s argument is that they won because his base came out is unlikely to be proved wrong. As Jay H. Ell blogged last week the GOP is the TOP, (Trump Old Party). Whatever the differences are in the Democratic Party there is consensus that democracy is the only choice for what America is supposed to be about.
Everyone needs to take a deep breath and look at this scene dispassionately and not from the view of most of the hysterical media and reassess the situation.
WHO IS TO BLAME FOR VIRGINIA ET AL
The idea that Biden is to blame for the outcome of the quarter term mini elections is ludicrous. The argument being because of his low poll numbers. Well he has low poll numbers because his Democratic caucus hadn’t delivered his agenda. In fact he empathizes with the electorate that rejected the Democrats, “People are upset and uncertain about a lot of things from Covid to school, to jobs to a whole range of things. If I’m able to pass and sign into law my “Build Back Better initiative, I’m in a position where you are going to see a lot of those things ameliorated quickly and swiftly”.
Well the Democratic caucus is one part of the problem. There seems to be a difficulty among the legislators that politics is all about compromise. No politician is going to go to heaven as she has to modify her position so as to present a unified front. A political party is a big tent accommodating a coalition of various constituencies. In America there is a two party system so the consensus building takes place within a party. In Israel and Germany with a host of parties it takes place between parties. Another misunderstanding among the Democratic caucus which reinforces that latter point is the difference between activists and politicians. The activist doesn’t have to compromise. She is advocating a position not collecting votes and does not have to modify her cause one jot to put it across. Activists can land up in heaven. So the Democratic caucus has to take a fair share of the blame for Virginia et al.
Then there are the technicals.Nothing bemuses the dilettante investor more when economists discuss the fifty day moving average and the like as when to buy or sell a stock. Surely that parameter has nothing to do with the value of the company. But the share price apparently obeys this irrational rule. So the technicals in Virginia and New Jersey foretold some of what was to happen. Only once in fifty years had the same party as the WhiteHouse occupant not lost the Governorships of New Jersey and Virginia. (The facts behind this technical are easy to follow. As American referendums are usually on whether the siting President has delivered or not on his promises it is rare that has happened within ten months). Another technical is no Democratic Governor has ever gained a second term in the last fifty years. So there you have it!
Then as Lawrence O’ Donnell pointed out there were the candidates. Both in Virginia and Georgia the Republicans ran on their Democratic opponents gaffes. The basis of Youngkin’s campaign in Virginia was built on Terry McCauliffe’s assertion that parents should not be telling schools what to teach. In New Jersey which has the highest tax rate the incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy maintained that if a citizen was moaning about that she was in the wrong state. Needless to say that became the focus of the Republican adds. Anyway Murphy scraped home so sucks to technicals even though he lost fourteen percent of the Democrats vote.
The Democrats are fortunate to have had this wake up call so they can adjust to the midterms. They are even more fortunate to have Joe Biden at the helm who at least understands how politics works and, who the Pope has reassured us, will go to heaven.
THE NAIVE BELIEF THAT THE GOP IS STILL THE GOP NOT THE TOP
There is a naive belief by some Republican Legislators that the quarter term results indicate that the GOP is still the GOP. They forget that no one gets past the Primary process unless The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Trump allows them to. Both Youngkin, (Virginia), and Ciatterelli, (New Jersey) were endorsed by Trump. Originally McConnell was dead against Trump’s milksop pick of Herschel Walker for the crucial Georgia Senate race in 2022 and now he has caved. (McConnell is daily humiliated by the former President but the power savvy Republican knows his fate is largely in Trump’s hands). The overwhelming majority of Republican have bought into the Big Lie and are not challenging Trump’s move to smear Republican Secretaries of State that found the 2020 elections fair and free. They have stood by as Trump endorsed Secretary of State candidates in the 2022 Primary elections that claim he was robbed in 2020. He is still having dummy recounts in the States claiming that there was fraud and corruption in the counting.
Trump is behind the legislation in the States that would allow the overturn of an election to be placed in the hands of politicians. In short the GOP is no longer a party of democracy. The former Republicans are all members of the TOP. The now TOP legislators refuse to support a voter protection bill authored by no less than the most conservative of the Democrats Joe Manchin.
Lead by Minority leaders McConnell and McCarthy they are members of the authoritarian TOP. If they don’t kiss the ring they will be primaried. Their only objective now is to cling to power. The few legislators such as Liz Cheney, Adam Kritizinger and Lisa Murkowski who have bucked the transformation from democracy to autocracy are targeted for abuse and victimization. When Congressman Kritzinger, who voted to impeach Trump, elected not to run for Congress in 2022 Trump triumphantly preened “two down and eight to go” signaling that anyone against him will be history one way or another. However these holdouts serve to remind the constitutional sell outs that they have abandoned the principles their party stood for a few short months ago and this debasement is not an inevitability.
WHY ARE JOE MANCHIN AND KYSTEN SINEMA DEMOCRATS?
Adding to Biden's delicate dance are two Senators who have fought his social agenda to the extent that many wonder why they are in the Democratic Party. Joe Manchin comes from a family of Democrats and he if nothing else, is a man of tradition. The current Democratic Party differs from the TOP in two distinct areas. First and foremost the Party supports democracy and secondly it is a party throughout history that has been instrumental in providing a social safety net. Manchin supports democracy over autocracy. If he didn’t Majority Leader Schumer would not have entrusted him with writing the Bill that basically is the pillar of democracy, voting access and voting integrity.
Manchin with regard to providing a social safety net - not so much. Manchin as everyone is reminded was elected in a State that Trump won by forty points. His background is coal, coal and more coal which is the backbone of West Virginian economy. He believes everyone should pull themselves up by their bootstraps that "handouts" should only be given to those that work, He is against, by conviction, increasing the social safety net. He is a fiscal conservative in the manner of the old GOP - small government, trickle down economics and so on. He is extremely loyal to Joe Biden and that fact alone has him agreeing to any of the social “Build Back Better” social plan. All this is a trifle hypocritical as he is as rich as Croesus from coal and his wealth is not first generation. He offered to leave the Democratic Party if they thought he was too much of an embarrassment and caucus with them as an Independent. Needless to say his offer was rejected.
Senator Kyrsten Sinema from Alaska is an enigma in one way and easy to read in another. She is the second elected Democratic Senator from what is now considered a purple State. Her opposition to the social Build Back Better Bill has been unfathomable to observers as she has a history of being an advocate for green energy and was considered far more left than the other Democratic Senator from Alaska Mark Kelly who has gone along with whatever the caucus has decided. Her hang up seemed to be the control of the price of prescription drugs the cost of which is outrageous. Cynics pointed to the massive support she has carried form big Pharma as the reason. Any rate the compromise seems to be that Medicare will take on the burden rather than controlling the drug companies themselves.
At the time of going of writing it had not yet been finalized as to what the pair would agree too on the Social infrastructure Bill but Biden is confident that they will come round to something or other and that what is really what matters. The fact that the infrastructure bill had been passed by Manchin and Sinema in the Senate had to mean that Biden was nearly half way there..
BIDEN POST VIRGINIA
Biden has been blamed for the quarter term election results not that he cares as indicated above. That outcome has changed the dynamic amongst the House Democratic legislators. Both the Progressives and the Moderates claiming, respectively, that Biden's Build Back Better is too limited or too ambitious. The Progressives originally held back their vote on the infrastructure bill, unless the social safety net bill was passed first. The two sides have been attacked from external pundits. James Carville the renowned Democratic strategist claiming that the “woke” crowd with their “defund the police lunacy and take Abraham Lincoln’s name of the school” are putting the whole country off, while left wing commentators are screaming that there is not enough money in the Build Back Better Bill.
James Clyburn, the Chief Whip summed it up when he said “We have got to get out of our comfort zones, The moderates don’t trust the progressives and the progressives don’t want to trust the moderates”.
The Moderates are also claiming that Biden was elected as a moderate and not an FDR and he must get back to boring politics. Biden however did run on a grand vision. In TV commercials and campaign speeches his core themes were taxing the rich and corporations to fund his great infrastructure bill as well as his “Build Back Better” social bill. Anyone who listened to him had visions of FDR and LBJ.
The remarkable outcome is he has delivered. A massive trillion dollar Covid Relief Act as well as the trillion dollar infrastructure bill which covers water to roads has been passed with the slimmest of Democratic majorities. FDR and LBJ had overwhelming majorities in the House and The Senate. Biden has not a vote to spare in the latter and less than five in the former. He has been on the phones, made trips to the Hill, spent hours and hours holding meetings individually, in groups and with leaders. Nothing leaked from these. There was no public pressure or smears even at Manchin and Sinema at their worst. No public demands to pass the Bills till the last day when it happened. There is no doubt all this with the aid of the most masterful Speaker in history, Nancy Pelosi, notching first Obamacare and now getting the Infrastructure Bill through with a guarantee that the caucus will support a compromise Safety Net Bill. The Moderates and the Progressives trusted one another after they signed an agreement!
Biden hit back hard on the fact that the same Republicans who were thwarting mitigating Covid policies and punishing those entities who were mandating vaccination were simultaneously arguing that he was not controlling the pandemic. He came out with an executive order virtually instructing companies with more than a hundred workers to vaccinate or weekly test. As might be expected there are already over a score of court challenges.
Just to prove that a week in politics is a lifetime the new job numbers hit a half a million and Pfizer came out with a pill for Covid treatment that was ninety - one percent effective. Finally Trump’s number one parameter as to the health of the economy, the stock market, an institution that Biden hasn’t the vaguest interest in, is hitting new highs daily. Inflation is a problem but the Federal Reserve belief is that it is temporary and they show the low bond and interest rates to bolster their argument.
While Biden, Pelosi and Schumer will sweat blood to eventually get the social “Bring Back Better” Bill over the line it will happen one way or another.
AT THE END OF THE DAY A WHIOLE NEW BALL GAME
Biden is back in the game and on a tour to tout what is in the infrastructure Act. The TOP, who still think they are the GOP because of the quarter term election results, have forgotten how Trump got where he is and each day he has a stronger and stronger hold of the Party. The best hope the hopefuls like Christie and McConnell have of removing the Democrats from the WhiteHouse is that Trump is locked up.
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