CAN TRUMPISM IMPLODE WHILE BIDEN SLEEPS?

The Trump Old Party, (TOP)  has at its core worship of Donald J. Trump. You cannot join unless you swear a blind oath to The Leader. Trump demands complete and utter loyalty tolerating not the slightest deviation. In addition there is a belief that omnipotent Trump is marching to victory in 2024. Trump has been running in two elections since November 2020 - the one that he lost and the one in 2024.  Even if he isn’t the popular favorite the pundits have resolved that gerrymandering, voter suppression and result manipulation will send him back into the WhiteHouse. Added to that is the current low approval rate of President Biden coupled with the fact that the Party who controls the WhiteHouse loses heavily in the Midterms coming up in 2022. This will give Trump a springboard for 2024. In addition there is a refrain that Biden is half asleep at the wheel and allowing all the oxygen to be taken up by Trump. 

There are some leftovers from the old Grand Old Party that Trump transformed into the TOP. who don’t fully subscribe to the leader’s dictates. They are confident that they can repeat the successful performances of the GOP, (?), candidates in the recent Governorship races. The latter succeeded beyond expectation without Trump holding his Nuremberg style rallies in their support. However both candidates were endorsed by Trump who is claiming credit for their success because his base came out. The aspirants made it clear that they supported the Supreme Leader. Whether Trump pitches up and rains on your parade is up to him not the candidate.There is no way that he is going to be laid back. He will bless and eliminate candidates according to his will, the criterion being their blind worship of him. 

It is useful to peruse the constitution of the TOP which is based on the deifying the Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Trump,

THE RULES FOR THE FOOLS

* Central to acceptance in the inner circle, as much as it is central to Islam to visit Mecca, is a pilgrimage to the Temple of Mar- O- Lago to kiss the ring, {The Leader’s express term). This pertains whether for endorsement, to explain yourself if you have deviated from the gospel and/or when The Leader shall so decree.

* Acknowledgement that he is still President while at the same time affirming that Biden has stolen it from him. In so doing any and every Biden law or act, including pandemic control must be vigorously opposed. Even if the latter will benefit the country or a TOP candidate’s electoral chances. 

* The January 6 insurrection was a peaceful protest and those being incarcerated are political prisoners. 

* The Leader has no responsibility to reciprocate loyalty to the followers particularly in relation to legal fees that they may accrue in actions that supported him. If they are sentenced to prison terms and are still incarcerated at the time of his election for a third term there is a distinct possibility for pardon if it is in the interest of The Leader.

* There needs to be an ongoing effort to create a white vigilante militia to enforce Trumpism. They may well be named the Trump - Rittenhouse Storm Troopers.

With regard to policy, there are just a few issues - anti abortion, anti covid control and the promotion of guns and more guns. In addition any teachings that relate to slavery to lynchings to Jim Crow cannot be in any educational curricula. The “woke” crowd cannot be allowed to make white third graders feel like oppressors. There has to be ongoing creation of state laws that help TOP candidates being elected and if in the event these somehow fail, provisions need to be promulgated to reverse the obviously "fraudulent" election.

All the assets, employees, offices and particularly the money of the defunct GOP will be under the umbrella of the TOP. Employees who accept this dictum may remain on.

Trump will be succeeded by Donald J Trump Jnr. This is a dynasty. This needs reaffirming as there are number of TOP presidential wannabes. 

WHO ARE THE TOP POTENTIAL “GOP” PRESIDENTIAL WANNABES OTHER THAN TRUMP?

Remember it is three years to go before the 2024 Presidential elections. So far Trump is the only declared but not yet declared candidate. His most dangerous challenger for the position is Florida Governor de Santis who believes masks and vaccinations are for sissies. The latter platform is in line with The Leader's beliefs. De Santis garnered 43% support at a straw poll of a Conservative Convention, ahead of a slew of other TOP presidential wannabes. Respectfully Trump’s name was omitted in this exercise. Trump, who has an uncanny nose for danger, has identified the Florida anti vaxer as his number one threat. He flat out boasted that he would make mincemeat of de Santis if he ran. “But he won’t”, bragged Trump, because de Santis supports The Leader as the Leader “made” him. 

Then there is Vice President Pence who had on his TOP membership card, the number 1. But all good things must come to an end. Trump blames his former right hand man and leader of the choir in the echo chamber for not “Stopping The Steal.”. “He deserved to be hung”, Donald is quoted as saying. Trump, in typical whiney victim like fashion, claims that he dragged the nonentity Pence from obscurity only to witness the ingrate turn on him. For Pence’s part Trump was a great leader but he and Trump can never agree about January 6 - really! Pence is kinda doing the circuit that prospective presidential candidates do maintaining that his decision to run will not be based on anyone else in the field. Already he has the backing of heavyweights such as Newt Gingrich and Larry Kudlow.

There is also the rank opportunist from New Jersey, Chris Christie, who like card carrying member 1 states that his decision to run or not will not be based on whether Trump is in the field or not. He also has no misgivings for his support and key enabler role he played in Trump’s win, then only to be axed by son in law Jared Kushner for prosecuting Kushner’s corrupt father and sending him down the river. His slight deviation from the mantra is that Trump must move on from 2020. A cardinal sin if ever there was one.

Others at this very early stage whose toes are firmly on the TOP line are Texas Governor Gregg Abbot, Former Secretary of State Pompeo and Senators John Hawley, Ted Cruz and Mark Rubio. They are operating on the basis that Trump will not run and could anoint one of them. Abbot of anti abortion fame faces challenges for Governorship in Texas. Jay H. Ell believes that those who ran against Trump in 2016 such as Cruz and Rubio will not get the nod, even though, with Senator Hawley they were in the forefront of “Stop The Steal”. You get no second chances with The Leader. The same would apply for female candidates Ambassador Nikki Halley and Governor Kristi Noem who have mumbled minor disagreements. Kristi must have collected brownie points for presenting him with a Mount Rushmore sculpture with him added. 

There are non politicians such as Tucker Carlson, who is insanely ambitious as well as being insane. Carlson has a massive MAGA following and at the moment is FOX NEWS. One prospect being mooted all over the show is Candace Owens an African American Women who ticks of many of the boxes the old white men who are the backbone of TOP can’t. However John Jnr has to be daddy’s favorite above everyone else. 

The fact that there is so much discussion in this arena, many who are not purists, has to be feeding into Trump’s paranoia. It also is indicative of the fact that if he runs there will be challengers.  However Trump’s internal polling, for what that is worth, shows him way ahead of the TOP field as well as Biden. He has well over a hundred million in his political campaign coffers and is holding a massive fundraiser at the Temple of Mar- O- Largo in early December.

Thus there is much brewing in many pots that will stand in the way of giving him a clear run-in 2024. 

WHO AND WHAT IS TIP TOEING AGAINST THE LEADER’S MANTRA

So there is open defiance on the cornerstone of the TOP - that Trump is still President - with two strong "Republicans" in Congress and at least two presidential candidates, pooh-poohing the bizarre claim. Even more ominous is the fact that the owner of the Fox News empire, Rupert Murdoch has told him 2020 is over. While Tucker Carlson marches to his own fascist drummer two Fox correspondents have resigned and consternation is brewing in the ranks at the latter’s lunacy. How Rupert yearns for a nice good old fashioned right wing conservative like Mike Pence.

Then if one looks at the TOP agenda - abortion, guns and the education, be careful for what you wish for. One way or another abortion is going to be limited. Roe v Wade is on the chopping block while gun laws will be reduced in this period of carnage with seventeen year olds shooting with AK 47’s in the street to the applause of Trump and Carlson. All of this is not going to win over the women voters and the independents. They won’t forget and if they do they will be reminded that it is the Supreme Court that Trump picked, on the basis he said, that were pro guns and anti abortion. He will get the credit for their decision from the base. With regard to education the TOP can run on the fact that they will ban curricula that haven’t been introduced in any school system. At the same time they have to answer why they did not support pre kindergarten free education as well child care for the mothers who want to work. Also as parents receive $3000 per year per child they will know they haven't got Trump to thank.

Three quarters of American women support the women’s right to choose and well over sixty percent don’t support the right for seventeen year olds to career around with automatic rifles looking for trouble and gun fights. The fact that this notorious behavior of this unremorseful teenager has become the poster picture of the TOP is hardly a winning text for the Presidency. Incidentally the majority of Americans don’t support the Covid nihilism that is associated with Trump and his followers. So what the hell is he going to run on!

To a certain extent Trump’s power will gravitate on whether his nominees will win their primaries in 2022 and if they do will they be enough in the mainstream to win election. A key race will be in Alaska where he is dead against Senator Lisa Murkowski who voted for his impeachment. He is backing another candidate while McConnell is backing  Murkowski as is the majority of the Republican Senate caucus. Incidentally, the former President is openly taking McConnell on. The latter has big financial keys to all the Senate races. The current Minority Leader in the Senate, unlike Trump who supports only sycophants, McConnell backs those whom he believes have the best chance of winning the actual election. Trump punted a candidate for the Pennsylvania Senate Primary whom a Judge has ruled against in a child custody case as he found him not credible and guilty of wife abuse. Trump will have problems with his Ohio and Georgia picks as well. In fact he will with his madcap narcissistic decision making open the field for Democrats to win State legislative positions in Georgia with his attacks on the current elected representatives because they would not overturn the 

Georgian election. 

Trump is directly responsible for the Senate being in Democrat hands as he almost single handedly lost both Georgia Senate seats by his intervention in that state’s senate elections. The burden of his message being the stolen election and the fact that the Republican establishment wouldn’t find him votes to reverse it. Trump is more likely to be a spoiler in key races than engineering a victory for his Party. The fact that he is making the crazies in the Senate and the House his personal poster children of the TOP is going to make it much easier to run against in every seat in contention.

Ongoing at the moment are the trials of seven hundred who were involved in the January 6 insurrection and whom Trump has characterized as being peaceful protestors. Several of the accused have been blaming Trump for their criminal acts. Some even offering to give evidence to the January 6 House Committee investigation. The latter has gained much intelligence on the conspiracy involved in that attempted coup. Again the circus like antics of Trump supporters like Bannon may mobilize the base but that is all. It will not gain him any votes from the independents. Another point worth noting is that the lower court judges are taking a tough line on the attorneys who carried Trump’s water that the election was fraudulent. Some have been censored, others referred to their professional bodies and a pair were instructed to pay nearly two hundred thousand dollars legal fees for bringing patently untrue claims. 

Litigation, brought by the victims of Trump induced thuggery, against the far right conspiracy mongers will result in the bankrupting of the organizations and their leaders. The Charlottesville Neo Nazis, racists and anti semites, whom Trump claimed "some were good people", are those targeted. Alex Jones, too, for his hateful depiction of the Sandy Hook massacre of children as being a fake will be bankrupted from the damages that will be awarded against him and his sick organization. 

Incidentally Trump declared the new poster child for TOP’s support of vigilantism remorseless Karl Rittenhouse, “A really good young guy”. All these guys, their organizations and their followers were and are Trump’s storm troopers. They are needed to get the base out. One thing is for sure,Trump is not going to bail them out with his pile of cash. He even gets the “Republican” Party treasury to pay his own legal bills raked up for his actions in his personal capacity.

The criminal and civil investigations against Trump himself proceeds apace in spite of the fact that Biden’s Department of Justice appear to be steering clear of investigating Trump’s sedition. However the attorney generals of New York and Georgia have no such inhibitions. 

So discussing Trump’s election chances in 2024 is really a media exercise. The latter being in denial as to the consequences as to what is going on around Trump. To put it at its kindest, "Loser" Trump is very unlikely to be a candidate for President in 2024.

In addition every one is counting out “Low Key Joe”, who won the election in 2020 being just that.

WHAT IS GOING ON WITH BIDEN? IS HE JUST BIDIN HIS TIME?

Biden is sticking to Plan A - that is to talk and act “moderate” and enact “transformative” legislation. Biden has been around the block. No one knows the game better than him. He takes a longer view than the next news cycle. He has already declared himself a candidate for 2024. Talking about bipartisanship appears naive but that is just what the independents want to hear. In fact his infrastructure bill garnered seventeen “Republican” votes in the Senate and thirteen in the House. He is being pictured with workers in the swing states explaining what he has done for them,(Covid relief deluxe),what he is in process already, (infrastructure colossal), and what is to come, (social safety net profound). Whatever his social Build Back Better plan delivers the sum total of this all is humongous. It is Eisenhower and FDR rolled into one and then multiplied. He is acting on inflation and opening up the gas reserves to bring down the price.

In the meantime Biden, will diversify to kingdom come, leaving little doubt that this country is a rainbow nation. Watch the Federal Reserve which has been to date like an elderly white man’s country club. He has reappointed Republican Chair Jerome Powell, (one up for bipartisanship), Vice Chairman is Democratic Woman, Lael Brainard and stick around and see who the next Governors are. Associate Justice Breyer has to resign soon and he has promised the first African American female Supreme Court Judge. 

He got the hell out of Afghanistan - a war no one wanted, is taking a tough line on China while talking to them for hours on end. America is back in the NATO, the world and taking a lead on climate change. So Biden is on the right page. He knows he can’t dig into Trump’s base but he doesn’t need to. Trump can’t win with just his base. 

What with the TOP Governors screaming at Biden for his Covid failures while ensuring them, Biden is plodding on with what amounts to a vaccine mandate. This has become more imperative as a new threatening variant crashes the scene.  With the Federal workforce on target with ninety - five percent vaccination it seems mandates work. Even though there are the “Republican” court challenges they are politically motivated and not from the companies that are by and large carrying them out. 

By the way his approval numbers are beginning to creep up as the unemployment numbers are at a fifty two year record low and twenty million are back at work. Inflation is a problem which if permanent would be reflected in interest and bond rates which they are not.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Supreme Court cannot be saved from itself. Currently they are about to do what Trump said he directed them to do. Their approval rate is at an all time low having dropped precipitously within a year from fifty - six percent to forty percent. In many ways it is an indirect parameter of the opposition of the policies the Trump’s base support.

Declaring Biden and the Democratic Party dead is premature. It is Trump and his TOP that are more likely to implode. 

THE USA AND SOUTH AFRICA - RACE AND DEMOCRACY

There is little doubt that the world is going through a critical nexus in history even more consequential than the Reformation. While, the existence of the planet itself is front and center with the ravages of climate change; the internet and artificial intelligence have upset our worldly order, the devastating pandemic has almost brought travel to a standstill and on the political front threats to democracy abound, as populism establishes itself in countries that once claimed to be democratic. The factor behind the latter scary phenomenon is race, class or caste. Identity has become front and center as the white race feel threatened through out the world. 

SOUTH AFRICA, THE USA, THE BRITISH, THE INDIGENOUS NATIVES AND RACE

While the past century witnessed the most powerful manifestation of racial hatred in Nazi Germany, Jay H. Ell would like to focus on the USA and South Africa, which has just witnessed the passing of their last great white leader, later reformist, Nobel Laureate FW de Klerk. The USA, on the other hand, is once again witnessing the dark cloud of racism overhanging its beleaguered constitution. The latter is considered the basis of modern democracy. It is a fascinating fact that the acclaimed American jurist, the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg, rated only one constitution more encompassing of liberal Western values - the South African post apartheid constitution, which in turn is facing its challenges. 

Both South Africa the United States had similar beginnings in the seventeenth century being colonized by whites who considered themselves the superior race. In America the indigenous natives were largely exterminated while in South Africa the wars never resulted in nearly the same genocide. This resulted in the indigenous peoples of South Africa outnumbering the whites by a ratio of five to one. A ratio that still exists.

America imported slaves from Western Africa whose descendants represent a sizable minority today. Added to the mix are a large number of South American immigrants, who are the largest minority and finally those of Asian descent who are the fastest growing minority. The outcome of all of this is that it is projected by the year 2042 the whites would be no longer be in the majority. 

Both countries had their hassles with the British colonial power. America dumped the British early on their history. The long drawn out war was proceeded by Jefferson’s Declaration of Independence upon which the Constitution was based and the great American idea was predicated. South Africa to this day has links with Britain via the British Commonwealth.  South Africa had its war with Britain which pitted, in effect, the two white groups against one another. The indigenous natives were never part of that struggle in either country.

Both nations' white groups fought segregation and fostered it. In America that battle has been ongoing with the Civil War, Reconstruction, Jim Crow, Civil Rights and now Trumpism all playing a role in the ding dong battle of equality versus domination. In South Africa with no discernible body of slave descendants, the history of segregation was different.

A VERY VERY SHORT SOUTH AFRICAN HISTORY

Arising out of the ashes of the turn of the twentieth century war between the South African Afrikaners and the British were two groups the Afrikaner nationalists and the English who had made South Africa their home. The latter were more liberal.  The Afrikaner Nationalists argued that the English "liberals" wanted the blacks as their allies to drown the Afrikaner aspirations. Ironically in the Jim Crow era of the twentieth century the South African culture although segregationist was indeed more liberal than the violent murderous Jim Crow adherents. South Arica had some sort of token franchise for those who were not white. This token stood out versus the little help the American constitutional fifteenth amendment, was to the Southern Black Americans. Nor, in South Africa, was there the organized violence that Southern American negroes were subject to.

In 1948, In South Africa the white Afrikaner Nationalist segregationist party gained power with a minority of the white votes. A number of their luminaries had supported Germany in WWII, a few having been interned. From the get - go it was an undoing of those few laws that gave any rights to those of color as well as enshrining segregationist laws akin to those that were on the books in the Southern States of America. All  legislation was designed to keep the whites as ubermensch and pure. The laws promulgated were the ban on mixed marriages and sex across the color line, the group areas act defining where one could live resulting in forced relocations of populations, the Separate Education Act and on and on. All this was accompanied by repressive legislation to maintain order

In the early 1960’s naked racism in South Africa had to have a justification and as America was about to see the beginning of the lifting of Jim Crow, South Africa adopted as its rationale - “Separate But Equal”. The latter had been enshrined into law by the American Supreme Court in 1896 and provided the legal basis for the segregationists in the South. The docket was entitled “Plessy v Ferguson”. 

PLESSY V FERGUSON

In 1892 a former slave Homer Plessy boarded a a train and sat in a “Whites Only”  coach having purchased a first class ticket. He was challenging the Louisiana Separate Car Act. The latter act provided for “Separate but equal” facilities. Plessy fought his subsequent conviction through the Louisiana court systems and finally to the Supreme Court. The defendant named was John Ferguson the original judge who tried the case in Louisiana.  The basis of Plessy’s appeal was the Fourteenth Amendment which stated, “No State shall enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of laws” Plessy’s counsel argued that the Louisiana law “implied the inferiority of the black man”.

The Supreme Court in a seven to one decision ruled inter alia “… laws requiring racial separation were within the State’s power,,,, the Fourteenth Amendment was undoubtedly to enforce equality of the two races before the law, but in the nature of things, it could not have intended to abolish distinctions based on color or to enforce social, as distinguished from political equality….”. Thus the infamous “Separate but Equal” rationalization was enshrined and for six decades legitimized racial discrimination in the South. Only Justice Harlan dissented. The dissenting Judge proclaimed that, “…. The law implied that the black person was inferior……Everyone knows the statute in question had its origin in the purpose, not so much to exclude white people from railroad cars occupied by blacks, as to exclude colored people from coaches occupied or assigned by white persons…..”. . 

 Little did the seven supporting justices know that their names would go down in infamy. Not only would their law justify racial discrimination it gave license to mobs to enact violence of a gruesome nature, be the basis of discussions of the Nuremberg Laws and South African apartheid or Separate Development which apartheid was euphemistically labelled. 

THE 1950’S TO THE 1960’S

The 1950’s saw the reversal of these segregationist trends in several instances in the USA and the justification of them in South Africa. President Harry Truman kicked it off in 1948 by ending segregation in the military. In 1954 the Supreme Court in a landmark case in the up and down battle for the right for “All Men to be created equal and endowed with inalienable rights….” slammed segregation in schools. In the case Brown v The Board of Education they ruled “separate but equal” was “inherently unequal… even if they had equal facilities”. The unanimous court decisions authored by Chief Justice Warren, maintained further that, “To Separate black children from others of similar age and qualifications solely because of their race generates a feeling of inferiority as to their hearts and minds in a way unlikely to ever be undone”. In 1957 President Eisenhower sent troops to Little Rock Arkansas to enforce the rights of the Negro to attend a white School and passed the first Civil Rights law in 1957. This was the forerunner of the all encompassing civil rights legislation of the 1960’s. 

However it should not amaze anyone that in this period Jim Crow was still very much alive and kicking in the Southern States of America. The two countries differ in that the violence in South Africa was mainly from the Government where in the States it was by both law enforcement and the white mob. 

In South Africa over the same time period with the rise to power of the Nationalist Party Government there was an indecent hurry  to add to the discrimination that already existed. In a systematic fashion they proceeded through every life event and segregated it. Starting in 1949 with the Mixed Marriages act and a year later the defining Population Registration Act that went to Reich like methods to define which race someone belonged to. There were laws on Separate Amenities which included public transport, education, domicile, work, controlling each of the non white races from mulatos, known as Coloreds, to Asians to the black Africans. Political parties weren’t able to be integrated either. 

In order to eliminate what limited representation the non white races had in parliament required a two thirds majority which they never had. To overcome the latter they increased the members of the nominated Senate Chamber so the combined legislative bodies had the necessary majority to overcome that hurdle. The Extension of Universities Act saw to it that they would be no doubt as to the control of every sphere in South Africa by the white man.  Needless to say this evoked massive opposition and to control this was a succession of laws including “The Suppression of Communism Act” where the government defined Communism! The notorious Treason Trial  which rounded up leaders of all opposition groups and included Nelson Mandela as well lasted from 1956 till 1961. All were found Not Guilty by the standard then, which was the common law

THE 1960’S TO THE 1970’S 

America went gang busters. This was the era of Martin Luther King and LBJ. The Civil Rights Movement which had its genesis in 1954, when Rosa Parks refused to sit at the back of a bus, only saw real results in the sixties. The Freedom Riders tested a Supreme Court decision that ruled segregated transport terminals unconstitutional and were beaten up for their efforts. This then involved the then Attorney General Bobby Kennedy in the struggle. Following JFK’S assassination LBJ rammed through comprehensive Civil Rights Legislation that touched on voting, employment and Federal facilities. Lest there be any doubt as to the right to vote, the comprehensive Voting Rights Act was passed in 1965 and the Supreme Court subsequently upheld the violations to this law. To cap it all the Fair Housing Act was passed in 1968. This whole period was met by police violence especially in Selma Alabama on the march to Washington. There were three assassinations, the two key Black Leaders Malcolm X and Martin Luther King as well as Bobby Kennedy which were indicative of the violent efforts to retain the status quo.

South Africa, with a vengeance, turned in the opposite direction  overseen by an ideologue Hendrik Verwoerd who claimed that apartheid was really Separate Development - a grotesque interpretation of Plessy. Verwoerd had been in the forefront of a march to prevent Jewish immigrants fleeing Germany gaining entry. During the WWII he had peddled Nazi propaganda as an editor of an Afrikaner newspaper, “Die Vaderland”.

Verwoerd maintained that the Blacks belonged to different tribes and they all had separate homelands within South African borders that he would ultimately give nationhood too. They were foreign laborers in White South Africa. They all had to have work permits that were enforced via stringent Pass Laws. This lead to three million black South Africans being incarcerated and then shipped to territories most of whom had never seen in their lives. Opposition was suppressed even more as legislation became more and more disregarding of the rule of law. The detention without trial legislation allowed opposition leaders to be rounded up and placed in solitary confinement with no habeas corpus first for ninety days then a hundred and eighty days. In 1976 the first “independent nation” the Transkei was born to be followed by two others. They were all run by puppets and were totally dependent on “White” South Africa.

Nelson Mandela formed the militant wing of the African National Congress in 1961 as every effort to obtain rights peacefully was rebuffed by the Government. Peaceful protest then civil disobedience such as marches and burning of their passes landed leaders in jail. Mandela became the figurehead of the resistance till he and his co freedom fighters were eventually rounded up. It was touch and go whether Mandela would be sentenced to death for treason instead he was sentenced to life imprisonment on Robben Island. He served twenty seven years and exerted incredible influence from jail growing in stature by the day.

In 1972 FW de Klerk entered parliament continuing a long line of familial involvement in Afrikaner nationalist politics. His grandfather was charged with treason by the British, his father was a high ranking cabinet mnister and his uncle one of the early Nationalist Prime Ministers. On the American Continent an ambitious young man, Donald Trump, took over his father’s property business and in 1971 he started his Trump Organization.

THE 1990’S ONWARD

In the USA the growth and power of the African American proceeded apace, While discrimination exists to this day, the fact that in 2008 an African American was elected to be President for two consecutive terms and a woman of color is the current Vice President bears witness to the progress. The response to this was naked racism with a vengeance led by Donald Trump and the Republican Party which he subsequently took over. 

As matters now stand at the moment the political issue is whether America is going to remain a democracy or become an autocracy where the whites are the chosen race.  It has to be sticking in Trump’s craw that an African American is leading a committee that is ripping through his cover up of his attempted coup. However Trump’s influence remains as America armed to the teeth is hovering on the brink of losing its democracy.

The influence of the Supreme Court would once again be in evidence. Chief Justice Robert’s has to have insight that his legacy is going to rival that of Chief Justice Melville Fuller of Plessy notoriety. Surreptitiously he has paved the way for voter suppression which is directed at minorities. In a five to four decision Robert’s Court ruled that political gerrymandering of voter districts was beyond the jurisdiction of the court. By a similar majority his court ruled that election campaigns could have unlimited donations as money was equivalent to free speech. In the latter infamous case it was also declared that corporations were people. Once again with a five to four majority in the most egregious docket of them all - Shelby v Holder, the Robert’s Court gutted the 1965 Civil Rights Voting Act. The latter required that certain named states and locales  needed Federal preclearance before changing their voting laws. The three constitutional interpretations have paved the way for the Republican Party, which had by now morphed into the Trump Old Party, potential take over starting in 2022 through voter suppression of the minorities.

In the same period South Africa broke out of its racist rut. Out of the blue FW de Klerk who had been elected from the right wing of the Nationalist Party announced the release of Mandela, the repeal of the racist legislation and unbanning of black opposition parties. Anyone living in South Africa at the time this decision was astounded while appreciating the sheer guts and leadership of the move. He then persuaded whites, in a referendum, to sanction a non racial South Africa. In the years that followed a new constitution was hammered out which like the American counterpart has faced its challenges. South Africa had nine years of corrupt leadership following Mandela and his successor, Mbeki’s, departure. 

The South African Constitutional Court has by and large carried out the framers’ intent, recently having jailed the venal former President for contempt of court. The vision formulated in the nineties has had more than a hiccough, however a framer of the Constitution, Cyril Ramaphosa has taken over the reigns. South Africa too faces its challenges but at least it hasn’t had hoards of white militia storming parliament.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Both the USA and SA face challenges. Democracies are brittle and history has shown they can be taken over by minorities. Constitutions are only pieces of paper and they require the goodwill and leadership to be fulfilled. As Mandela’s autobiography’s title indicates it is “A Long Walk To Freedom”

FW de Klerk, in a video released posthumously, finally unequivocally apologized for his support of apartheid or “Separate Development as I preferred to call it”. He begged South Africans to live according to their new constitution.

The descendants of the White Ferguson and African American Plessy families joined together to have Homer Plessy posthumously pardoned for his 1892 “crime”. The Governor of Louisiana duly obliged. Meanwhile Michael Flynn, Trump’s pardoned national security advisor, has called for one nation, (guess which one), with one religion!

The committee investigating the January 6 coup attempting to turn America into a white racist autocracy is on a fast track to expose Trump and his treasonous cabal as American democracy once again hangs in the balance. 

BIDEN AND THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY AFTER VIRGINIA

 

Whichever way the American scene is viewed it is a battle between democracy and autocracy. Democrats are in a frenzy about the Virginian and New Jersey election results and a section are blaming it on Biden. The old style Republicans believe that they can dump Trump after the showing of two old fashioned old style Republicans in the ten month elections after Biden’s installation. The wings of the Democratic Party are busy blaming each other and there is an air of doom and gloom from all and sundry. The only three that don’t seem much fussed themselves about Virginia et al are Biden himself, Schumer and Pelosi.

Whatever the old Republicans believe they are aiding and abetting Trump’s move to autocracy. Trump’s argument is that they won because his base came out is unlikely to be proved wrong. As Jay H. Ell blogged last week the GOP is the TOP, (Trump Old Party). Whatever the differences are in the Democratic Party there is consensus that democracy is the only choice for what America is supposed to be about. 

Everyone needs to take a deep breath and look at this scene dispassionately and not from the view of most of the hysterical media and reassess the situation. 

WHO IS TO BLAME FOR VIRGINIA ET AL

The idea that Biden is to blame for the outcome of the quarter term mini elections is ludicrous. The argument being because of his low poll numbers. Well he has low poll numbers because his Democratic caucus hadn’t delivered his agenda. In fact he empathizes with the electorate that rejected the Democrats, “People are upset and uncertain about a lot of things from Covid to school, to jobs to a whole range of things. If I’m able to pass and sign into law my “Build Back Better initiative, I’m in a position where you are going to see a lot of those things ameliorated quickly and swiftly”. 

Well the Democratic caucus is one part of the problem. There seems to be a difficulty among the legislators that politics is all about compromise. No politician is going to go to heaven as she has to modify her position so as to present a unified front. A political party is a big tent accommodating a coalition of various constituencies. In America there is a two party system so the consensus building takes place within a party. In Israel and Germany with a host of parties it takes place between parties. Another misunderstanding among the Democratic caucus which reinforces that latter point is the difference between activists and politicians. The activist doesn’t have to compromise. She is advocating a position not collecting votes and does not have to modify her cause one jot to put it across. Activists can land up in heaven. So the Democratic caucus has to take a fair share of the blame for Virginia et al.

Then there are the technicals.Nothing bemuses the dilettante investor more when economists discuss the fifty day moving average and the like as when to buy or sell a stock. Surely that parameter has nothing to do with the value of the company. But the share price apparently obeys this irrational rule. So the technicals in Virginia and New Jersey foretold some of what was to happen. Only once in fifty years had the  same party as the WhiteHouse occupant not lost the Governorships of New Jersey and Virginia. (The facts behind this technical are easy to follow. As American referendums are usually on whether the siting President has delivered or not on his promises it is rare that has happened within ten months). Another technical is no Democratic Governor has ever gained a second term in the last fifty years. So there you have it!

Then as  Lawrence O’ Donnell pointed out there were the candidates. Both in Virginia and Georgia the Republicans ran on their Democratic opponents gaffes. The basis of Youngkin’s campaign in Virginia was built on Terry McCauliffe’s assertion that parents should not be telling schools what to teach. In New Jersey which has the highest tax rate the incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy maintained that if a citizen was moaning about that she was in the wrong state. Needless to say that became the focus of the Republican adds. Anyway Murphy scraped home so sucks to technicals even though he lost fourteen percent of the Democrats vote.

The Democrats are fortunate to have had this wake up call so they can adjust to the midterms. They are even more fortunate to have Joe Biden at the helm who at least understands how politics works and, who the Pope has reassured us, will go to heaven.

THE NAIVE BELIEF THAT THE GOP IS STILL THE GOP NOT THE TOP

There is a naive belief by some Republican Legislators that the quarter term results indicate that the GOP is still the GOP. They forget that no one gets past the Primary process unless The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Trump allows them to. Both Youngkin, (Virginia), and Ciatterelli, (New Jersey) were endorsed by Trump. Originally McConnell was dead against Trump’s milksop pick of Herschel Walker for the crucial Georgia Senate race in 2022 and now he has caved. (McConnell is daily humiliated by the former President but the power savvy Republican knows his fate is largely in Trump’s hands). The overwhelming majority of Republican have bought into the Big Lie and are not challenging Trump’s move to smear Republican Secretaries of State that found the 2020 elections fair and free. They have stood by as Trump endorsed Secretary of State candidates in the 2022 Primary elections that claim he was robbed in 2020. He is still having dummy recounts in the States claiming that there was fraud and corruption in the counting. 

Trump is behind the legislation in the States that would allow the overturn of an election to be placed in the hands of politicians. In short the GOP is no longer a party of democracy. The former Republicans are all members of the TOP. The now TOP legislators refuse to support a voter protection bill authored by no less than the most conservative of the Democrats Joe Manchin. 

Lead by Minority leaders McConnell and McCarthy they are members of the authoritarian TOP. If they don’t kiss the ring they will be primaried. Their only objective now is to cling to power. The few legislators such as Liz Cheney, Adam Kritizinger and Lisa Murkowski who have bucked the transformation from democracy to autocracy are targeted for abuse and victimization. When Congressman Kritzinger, who voted to impeach Trump, elected not to run for Congress in 2022 Trump triumphantly preened “two down and eight to go” signaling that anyone against him will be history one way or another. However these holdouts serve to remind the constitutional sell outs that they have abandoned the principles their party stood for a few short months ago and this debasement is not an inevitability.

WHY ARE JOE MANCHIN  AND KYSTEN SINEMA  DEMOCRATS?

Adding to Biden's delicate dance are two Senators who have fought his social agenda to the extent that many wonder why they are in the Democratic Party. Joe Manchin comes from a family of Democrats and he if nothing else, is a man of tradition. The current Democratic Party differs from the TOP in two distinct areas. First and foremost the Party supports democracy and secondly it is a party throughout history that has  been instrumental in providing a social safety net. Manchin supports democracy over autocracy. If he didn’t Majority Leader Schumer would not have entrusted him with writing the Bill that basically is the pillar of democracy, voting access and voting integrity. 

Manchin with regard to providing a social safety net - not so much. Manchin as everyone is reminded was elected in a State that Trump won by forty points. His background is coal, coal and more coal which is the backbone of West Virginian economy. He believes everyone should pull themselves up by their bootstraps that "handouts" should only be given to those that work, He is against, by conviction, increasing the social safety net. He is a fiscal conservative in the manner of the old GOP - small government, trickle down economics and so on. He is extremely loyal to Joe Biden and that fact alone has him agreeing to any of the social “Build Back Better” social plan. All this  is a trifle hypocritical as he is as rich as Croesus from coal and his wealth is not first generation. He offered to leave the Democratic Party if they thought he was too much of an embarrassment and caucus with them as an Independent. Needless to say his offer was rejected.

Senator Kyrsten Sinema from Alaska is an enigma in one way and easy to read in another. She is the second elected Democratic Senator from what is now considered a purple State. Her opposition to the social Build Back Better Bill has been unfathomable to observers as she has a history of being an advocate for green energy and was considered far more left than the other Democratic Senator from Alaska Mark Kelly who has gone along with whatever the caucus has decided. Her hang up seemed to be the control of the price of prescription drugs the cost of which is outrageous. Cynics pointed to the massive support she has carried form big Pharma as the reason. Any rate the compromise seems to be that Medicare will take on the burden rather than controlling the drug companies themselves. 

At the time of going of writing it had not yet been finalized as to what the pair would agree too on the Social infrastructure Bill but Biden is confident that they will come round to something or other and that what is really what matters. The fact that the infrastructure bill had been passed by Manchin and Sinema in the Senate had to mean that Biden was nearly half way there..

BIDEN POST VIRGINIA

Biden has been blamed for the quarter term election results not that he cares as indicated above. That outcome has changed the dynamic amongst the House Democratic legislators. Both the Progressives and the Moderates  claiming, respectively, that Biden's Build Back Better is too limited or too ambitious. The Progressives originally held back their vote on the infrastructure bill, unless the social safety net bill was passed first. The two sides have been attacked from external pundits. James Carville the renowned Democratic strategist claiming that the “woke” crowd with their “defund the police lunacy and take Abraham Lincoln’s name of the school” are putting the whole country off, while left wing commentators are screaming that there is not enough money in the Build Back Better Bill. 

James Clyburn, the Chief Whip summed it up when he said “We have got to get out of our comfort zones, The moderates don’t trust the progressives and the progressives don’t want to trust the moderates”. 

The Moderates are also claiming that Biden was elected as a moderate and not an FDR and he must get back to boring politics. Biden however did run on a grand vision. In TV commercials and campaign speeches his core themes were taxing the rich and corporations to fund his great infrastructure bill as well as his “Build Back Better” social bill.  Anyone who listened to him had visions of FDR and LBJ. 

The remarkable outcome is he has delivered. A massive trillion dollar Covid Relief Act as well as the trillion dollar infrastructure bill which covers water to roads has been passed with the slimmest of Democratic majorities. FDR and LBJ had overwhelming majorities in the House and The Senate. Biden has not a vote to spare in the latter and less than five in the former. He has been on the phones, made trips to the Hill, spent hours and hours holding meetings individually, in groups and with leaders. Nothing leaked from these. There was no public pressure or smears even at Manchin and Sinema at their worst. No public demands to pass the Bills till the last day when it happened. There is no doubt all this with the aid of the most masterful Speaker in history, Nancy Pelosi, notching first Obamacare and now getting the Infrastructure Bill through with a guarantee that the caucus will support a compromise Safety Net Bill. The Moderates and the Progressives trusted one another after they signed an agreement!

Biden hit back hard on the fact that the same Republicans who were thwarting mitigating  Covid policies and punishing those entities who were mandating vaccination were simultaneously arguing that he was not controlling the pandemic. He  came out with an executive order virtually instructing companies with more than a hundred workers to vaccinate or weekly test. As might be expected there are already over a score of court challenges. 

Just to prove that a week in politics is a lifetime the new job numbers hit a half a million and Pfizer came out with a pill for Covid treatment that was ninety - one percent effective. Finally Trump’s number one parameter as to the health of the economy, the stock market, an institution that Biden hasn’t the vaguest interest in, is hitting new highs daily. Inflation is a problem but the Federal Reserve belief is that it is temporary and they show the low bond and interest rates to bolster their argument.

While Biden, Pelosi and Schumer will sweat blood to eventually get the  social “Bring Back Better” Bill over the line it will happen one way or another.

AT THE END OF THE DAY A WHIOLE NEW BALL GAME

Biden is back in the game and on a tour to tout what is in the infrastructure Act. The TOP, who still think they are the GOP because of the quarter term election results, have forgotten how Trump got where he is and each day he has a stronger and stronger hold of the Party. The best hope the hopefuls like Christie and McConnell have of removing the Democrats from the WhiteHouse is that Trump is locked up. 

 

VIRGINIA, THE TOP (THE TRUMP OLD PARTY) AND DEMOCRACY'S FUTURE

The Virginia election where a Trumpist in drag disguised as a “moderate” marked the successful metamorphosis of the GOP into the TOP (Trump Old Party). Race has become the central defining factor of the TOP which is in line with other cult characteristics. A phony charge that Democrat McAuliffe wanted to introduce race in education became the centerpiece of Trumpist Youngkin’s campaign. In spite of the designation of the Virginian race as a marker for the midterms it is not. That argument ignores history as the Virginia’s Governor race less than a year after a Presidential election has only once been won by the same Party as the WhiteHouse incumbent in over fifty years. Moreover Biden's agenda has not been passed because of the squabbling Democrats so that reverberated all round.

 The outcome of this race will in retrospect be more a marker of the total domination of Trump over what was the Grand Old Party, (GOP), than the defeat of Democrat Terry McAuliffe. The creation of the TOP necessitates that the constitution of the former GOP being changed so as to reflect the transition from a democratic to an autocratic party. 

THE TRUMPIST CANDIDATE PROFILE FOR BLUE AND PURPLE STATES

In some ways the Trumpian candidate in Virginia with his dog whistles, innuendoes and codes is even more odious and sickening than the real Trump deals who do not shy from being out and out racist. Youngkin has defended the parents’ rights against school boards to control what the set work books should be. The sickening argument is that two books that chronicle American racism cannot be in the curriculum as they are by definition racist towards the whites. The fact that the volumes mentioned aren’t in the Virginian school curriculum Is irrelevant. Then the candidate, who had been endorsed ten times by Trump, didn’t talk about a “stolen election” rather election integrity and on and on. 

The candidacy of Youngkin, with no political record and arguing that he is just one of the people, who accepts the big time support from The Leader Trump while not sycophantly praising him seems to be the model for TOP contenders for future marginal seats. Herschel Walker a football star is Trump’s nominee in the forthcoming crucial election in Georgia. In addition the fights are to be undergirded on emotional cultural issues of race. The Virginians preferred a guarantee that two books would never be taught in the schools rather than what Biden was offering, namely free Child Care, child tax credits and pre kindergarten education. (Perhaps nobody believed that the legislative Dems would deliver)

THE BACKGROUND TO THE VIRGINIAN ELECTION

The background to this election was ignored. It was taking place with the trial of the UniteThe Right protestors for the cold blooded murder of a counter protestor in Charleston, North Carolina. In the latter scenario Trump claimed that there were good people among those who sported Nazi symbols and chanted ,”The Jews Wont Replace Us” and the counter protestors. Then there is a trial in Kenosha Wisconsin where a seventeen year old opened fire and killed two protestors following a shooting at the hands of the police where the prosecution has been instructed that the murdered cannot be referred to as victims but rather rioters and looters. Tucker Carlson the leader of the Fox Right wing echo chamber has agued that the accused was maintaining law and order which the police should have been doing. Carlson is further conducting a documentary series countering that January 6, was neither “a peaceful protest” or “tourists visiting the capitol” but rather a false flag operation engineered by the Government to smear the supporters of the former President. Then Trump is attempting to cover up his logs and diaries relating to January 6 claiming executive privilege as he presumably argues that he is still President. (Sixty percent of the old GOP maintain that the election was stolen from him). 

Just in case there is any pretense that outside of Virginia anyone is pretending that the TOP is “moderate”, Senator Ted Cruz screamed at the Attorney General, (who happens to be Jewish), that the Nazi salute was legal under the First Amendment of the Constitution.  At a right wing gathering captured on tape an activist demanded to know when they were going take up guns to remedy the stolen election. All the while Trump who addressed the Virginian electorate by teleconference without Youngkin is upping the ante about the coup against him and that the protestors on January 6 were peaceful. 

Meanwhile Biden was reassuring the world that “America was back again”. A beleaguered world was only too happy to believe him in the hope that he could turn the tide of nativism that was sweeping the world. Biden more than anyone else is aware of the lead America plays and where the battle lines are being drawn between democracy and totalitarianism. 

Any rate to get down to more serious matters let’s return to the constitution of the newly formed Trump Old Party before looking at whether Democracy is lost or not,

THE CONSTITUTION OF THE TOP (TRUMP OLD PARTY)

Henceforth wherever the word GOP and or the Republican Party is mentioned substitute the name TOP (Trump Old Party). 

The objective of said Party is to revert to the original intent of the Founders of the Republic to only enfranchise white men. They foresaw the possibility of women, particularly in the suburbs, abandoning the cause and voting against the desire to Keep America Great. Moving with the times the franchise could be afforded to those who were obviously not white but who agreed with the White Man’s objectives and even to women who “know their place” as will be defined below.

The values of the TOP are enshrined in Christian Nationalism, Especially the Evangelicals who forgive sinners and believe that one, namely Donald J. Trump has repented and therefore has been ordained to Make America Great Again.

A cardinal self evident tenet of the TOP is that Donald J. Trump is the absolute sole arbiter of the policy of the Party and what it will take to restore the country to what the Founders, (see above), defined it should be, namely that only white men should participate in elections. All States controlled by the TOP shall see to it that the intent of The Founders’ is carried out in that only white moneyed men are allowed to participate in elections. (Exceptions may be made for non suburban white women and conservative non whites).

 In consequence of these facts all members shall embrace the fact that Trump is still President of the United States of America and that the pretender Joesph E Biden Jnr. “Stole the Presidency” from him at the insurrection of November 3 2020. That members further agree that the peaceful protest of January 6 has been distorted as being an insurrection and those that took part that are being incarcerated are political prisoners. 

All members shall contribute a chunk of their income to our leader’s Save America fund so that he is able to defend in the courts his constitutional right to be President and that his documents relating to the January 6 peaceful protest should be protected for the security of the America, the Founders, intended, (see above).

It stands to reason that for all public offices the TOP candidates are campaigning for shall swear allegiance and support the tenets of The Leader, in one way or another.

For those who still maintain office under the cloak of the old GOP and sacrilegiously defy the authenticity of the leader’s claims there shall be excommunication and expulsion. 

For those who think the above is funny it is not. It is deadly serious.

For those who take American democracy for granted think again. It is hanging by a thread and came within a whisker of crashing down.

IS DEMOCRACY DOOMED?

The American electorate, the decisive section of it at least that swing elections one way or another don’t make their decisions by comparing the two alternatives. Rather the election is seen as a referendum on who is in power at the moment. The belief is that all the woes of the time are the responsibility of the current administration. This state of affairs is responsible for Biden’s low poll numbers. The fact that he hasn’t passed his transformative social and infrastructure bills yet is considered a failure and a reason to vote for someone who doesn’t give a hoot about these priorities. The inevitable outcome of some inflation when money is pumped into the economy to help society cope is regarded as a negative. No one stops and thinks that they couldn’t buy any gas at all if they hadn’t received the relief moneys. They rather blame the administration for the higher price. The latter attitude and the milksop TOP candidate in Virginia are the reasons why Virginia and New Jersey became battleground States. The plan is the same for the crucial Georgian Senate election where a non politician football hero is the TOP nominee who presumably will be the honorary white in the TOP line up.

The swing group that decide elections in America are the blue collar predominantly white male worker who had been left behind in the deindustrialization of America, the rural population that has been denuded financially with the migration to the cities and the white women suburban voters. Elections also depend on turn out particularly the African Americans, that the TOP believe shouldn’t be voting at all. The youth turn out is also an important variable. 

How might these be influenced in the three years to come?

The future includes the fact that each and every day Trump’s involvement in the January 6 insurrection becomes more and more detailed. There is every possibility that the law will finally catch up with him putting him on the defensive. This may stir up his base but ii is going to make the independents less likely to vote TOP. 

The two key stimulatory Bills may not have been passed early enough to influence the one year elections but one way or another they are going to get through. Whether the social  support bill is 1.7 trillion or 2.0 trillion is irrelevant. It is a ton of money to fill the gaps particularly for women voters who desperately need help in child care in the social bill and the blue collared workers in the industrial bill. The latter will impact rural areas as well as the infrastructure problems are spread across the country. 

Currently the blue collar industrial worker is on strike. For the first time in generations the governing administration are supporting them. Both Biden and the Secretary of Labor have visited the picket lines.

The abortion laws are about to be modified to a lesser or greater extent by the Supreme Court by members appointed by the Supreme leader who promised that they would do just that. Again that will secure the Evangelical vote but this move is not supported by the majority of women in America, most of whom live in the suburbs. 

Finally when Biden talks about “Who we are” as his cultural and climate message the youth and minority groups get the message. They are further away from the old divisive lines that have dominated American politics since time immemorial. 

Biden is backed by the African American caucus that is why he became the Democratic nominee in the first place and their large turn out won him the Presidency. They need to have their agenda translated in practical terms.

WHAT TOP IS RELYING ON

TOP is Trump as he controls the base. Those who hope that these elections indicate otherwise have not been taking note of who wins the TOP primaries. Without him who are the faithful going to rally around? Jay H. Ell has already outlined that Trump’s legal challenges are real and there is a good chance that he may not be available for 2024. Assuming that GOP hangovers like Nikki Haley or Marc Rubio are chance-less, the front runners of the TOP are Senator Ted Cruz, (The Nazi salute is a first amendment right), Governor De Santis of Texas who has made a royal mess of Covid management, and Governor Abbott of Texas of removal of abortion rights fame. None of the latter are going to win marginal states. The only serious replacement of Donald J Trump is Donald J. Trump Jnr who has been in the wings of late.

So TOP is relying on Trump to come through and be around. Supposing that he is, he has to be relying on voter suppression and controlling the electoral system as the days go by the demographics alone are against him. Alternatively Biden has to bomb big time. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Democrats have to stop wailing about what was left out of the infrastructure bills and start tooting their horns about what is in. Their Bill to support voting rights which has been authored by Manchin must become a priority, There has to be a carve out in the filibuster for a Manchin Voters’ Rights Bill!. If the caucus hasn't come to terms with the reality of Manchin and Sinema now is the time. They must also do what Biden did in the Presidential election stick to their agenda and let Trump run against himself. 

If Trump is charged there will be violence. The law agencies will have to coordinate their intelligence far better than they did for January 6 and act proactively. Also the Justice Department should step up its game in the prosecution of the leaders of the militias that invaded the capitol on January 6. The Judiciary are right to be pulling their hair out at the low level of crimes the insurrectionists are being charged with.