Donald Trump is once again putting together a coalition, a blend of dark money and constituencies to enable him, with a minority of the US electorate, to win the 2024 Presidency or at least remain the central figure in American politics for the foreseeable future. Using his cult like base, showmanship, snake oil salesmanship, bluff and lies he has taken over the Republican Party. Together they are all living in an alternate reality, their Brave New World, in order to make America an authoritarian state.
Deprived of a social media platform, Trump has commandeered the GOP elected representatives as his standard bearers to ensure his total domination. The latter have joined in on a national level on The Big Lie that he won the election and that the January 6 insurrection was a minor event at worst or a peace loving protest at best. On the State and local arenas the Republicans have introduced legislation to nobble the minority vote and give the legislators the right to overturn an election. The Supreme Court has already allowed voter suppression legislation to stand so reprieve is unlikely from that quarter.. Justice Clarence Thomas in the Bush v Gore dispute was supportive of State bodies overthrowing election results. He should have no difficulty in finding four other Conservatives to back him should push come to shove.
The obstacles to achieving Trump’s goal are many. They include his legal woes, the institutions guarding democracy, the fact that the characteristic drop of the electorate’s support of the Party in the WhiteHouse has not materialized, the media and the lower courts. In addition there is the Democratic fund raising, the Democratic legislation supporting the traditional working class, his and his party’s gay oblivion of the ongoing pandemic and the significant drop in GOP membership.
Jay H Ell believes that Trump’s power is over rated and that the GOP hierarchy is not only making a shameful moral mistake but a political one as well. This sadly doesn’t take away from the destructiveness of Trump’s actions and the threat to democracy.
THE CULT - THE BASIS OF TRUMP’S POWER.
Central to Trump’s power is his cult following. Perhaps the scariest article to emerge of late is an interview with the Democratic House of Representative member, Jackie Speier who was part of a delegation led by Congressmen Ryan who visited the cult of Jim Jones in Guyana, decades ago. Their purpose was to check up on the well being of a number of Ryan’s constituents. The delegation had a first hand encounter with the unsavory operation. However there were some followers who wanted out and another plane was sent for. As they were all embarking Jones's people started firing at them killing Ryan and four others while leaving Speier for dead, having been shot five times.
Congresswoman Speier now makes a direct comparison of Trump with Jim Jones of the Peoples Temple who she claims “forced” his flock to do illegal acts and finally mesmerized nine hundred to kill themselves. They were both “charismatic merchants of deceit” who prayed on the dissolutioned, dissafected and those "looking for something". It took Ms. Speier twenty - nine years to come to this conclusion - a conclusion she had fought shy of. She reasons that Trump’s larger following is due to social media so that all these “lost souls can find themselves in a way they couldn’t before”. The similarity between Jones and Trump extends to the extent they get people not to look at the truth and their ability to get them to do illegal acts.
Ms Speier states that the biggest tragedy is that her colleagues in the legislature, whether they like it or not, have become members of the cult. They know that Biden won the election fairly and the havoc reached on January 6…..
The madness of the Trump cult extends to their denial of the Covid pandemic with over six hundred and twenty thousand dead. Initially the devastation was in the blues states so who cared ? Now the delta variant is ravaging the red states, chief among them being Florida and Texas which account for one third of the new cases. In spite of this the madcap Governors De Sanctis and Abbot, both of whom have presidential ambitions, have not only not legislated to decrease the surge but rather made it illegal for local authorities to make mask mandates for children and college students returning mandatory. The impact of all these efforts has resulted in thirty one percent of the Republicans vowing never to be vaccinated!
The strength of Trump at the moment lies with his recruitment of the Republican Establishment from the Central Committee to the legislators in every segment of governance all drinking the Kool Aid.
THE INVESTIGATIVE ACTIVITIES INVOLVING TRUMP AND THE IMPACT ON THE CULT
Trump has always lived on the edge, now he is on the precipice. In general he will use all allegations, charges, revelations, indictments and even convictions to rally more support from the cult. He is always the victim preyed upon, mocked at by the establishment and elites. First they steal the election from him and now they persecute him. As matters stand he is banking on the more they persecute him the stronger his people will react. Jay H. Ell believes he fantasizes that January 6 was a minor dress rehearsal.
Ironically Trump’s biggest threat is where he is not the accused in the dock or when he is not the subject of investigation. The trials of the January 6 insurrectionists are his biggest weakness for a number of reasons. Firstly, the central theme of all their defenses are either “The President Sent Me” or “I did it for the President” - the equivalent of the insanity plea! This defense has been mercilessly attacked by the presiding Judges thus far. More significantly is that the leadership infrastructure of the "Trump army" will be smashed.
The Three Percenters, The Proud Boys, Boogaloo, Rise Above The Nation, The Oath Keepers and Q’Anon were some of the about a dozen right wing “terrorist” groups who participated. These groups are not unknown to the FBI whose Director Christopher Wray has testified to Congress again and again emphasizing the threat white domestic terrorists are to the country.Those that Trump has blessed as peace loving protestors, “who care about the election results” are thus labelled domestic terrorists by the FBI and are being tried as such.There are five hundred cases pending and as yet none of the conspiracies behind the insurrection have been the subject of litigation. The leaders of these groups are going to be behind bars. The problem for the the GOP is that they have gone along with the Trump narrative.
In addition to the court cases is Pelosi’s committee, which has subpoena powers, investigating January 6. Already the Capitol Police’s public fury at the lack of Republican support for those who risked their lives for them has spilled into into public arena. Minority Republican leader Kevin McCarthy made two mistakes relating to the House Committee’s investigation, by initially nominating two alleged co conspirators and then pulling out his delegation entirely when Pelosi refused to accept them. Pelosi outmaneuvered him by putting two Republicans on the Committee who are anxious to “get at the truth”.
Trump himself faces both civil litigation and criminal litigation for January 6. The latter is hardly likely to be initiated by the Biden Administration. The most recent memo to be released by the Biden Justice Department, written immediately after Trump tried to persuade Barr’s successors to reverse their findings that no electoral corruption had taken place. “Just say it was corrupt’ and he “would do the rest”, was his command. Interestingly enough he stated that he would be helped by the Republican legislature and specifically named Jim Jordan, one of McCarthy’s picks for the January 6 investigation committee.
Besides the civil litigation the biggest legal threat that Trump faces is from local State and Federal agencies. There is a racketeering act that was brought in to take on the mob where several instances of malfeasance can be brought together to make a case. As Michael Cohen his former lawyer testified you never got a direct instruction, nothing was ever written down and there were no e mails. Rather a conversation might go like this, Jay H. Ell imagines, “ Stormy Daniels is a liar. The situation needs to be rectified as it could unfairly impact my campaign. See to it that the lies stop and truth prevails. All your expenses will be paid. Contact the editor of the National Enquirer who is a patriot I am sure he will help you.”.
While there is fatigue on January 6 generally the impact of these investigations, the court cases and Trump litigation cannot be positive for Trump and his Republican Party. It certainly will not win over any undecided voters.
THE MONEY
There are literally billions being sploshed around. Trump himself has a hundred million in his kitty. Incidentally his “Save America” and other PACS have probably committed fraud. The money was collected ostensibly to challenge the fraudulent election and he has not spent a penny on that imagined objective. The sums that the money collected from the cult thus far have been allocated to his good self and tiny bits to support nominees in local races. (It also must be realized that money sent to Trump is money not sent to the Republican National Committee to be strategically used). The vast sums spent on recounts and litigation in courts that the election was rigged have come from elsewhere and not paid for by Trump.
The New Yorker ran an extensive piece on August 2 on the unlimited moneys being spent on, “Donald Trump’s attacks on democracy that are being promoted by rich and powerful groups determined to win at all costs”. These are the entities promoting conspiracy theories that feed into the cult’s mantra. Even the donors of boodle that Mitch McConnell can flood the Senate floor with, although he is backing candidates that can win rather than Trumpists, are careful not to whisper anything nasty about Trump.
The Democrats have their own sources in this obscene carnage of resources that is directed at American elections. One of the Democratic PACS, which collects small donations netted a record three hundred million dollars this last quarter - an unbelievable sum eighteen months off a midterm election. The Democrats too have their big donors. Interestingly increasingly large amounts are being raised by Republicans attempting to block Trump as reported in The Guardian of August 4. Candidates such as Liz Cheney are trawling large hauls for local races as well as is the PAC “Keeping Country First”.
So the money will probably not make the difference. If anything Trump stuffing his personal coffers will not go to support the cause. So far he has offered no legal support to the hundreds charged with following his exhortations to go to the Capitol.
THE BIDEN EFFECT
The numbers show that the forty - sixth President’s approval scores have not budged. The Republicans, try as they may, have been unable to make him the focus of the midterm elections. It is still their shaman Donald. This is a set back because the midterms gains of the non WhiteHouse party have been traditionally on the basis that the President has inevitably not delivered on all his promises. Well first of all even if he hadn’t it is still all about the loser Trump. In fact Biden has come through. Covid vaccinations have come a long way and who knows what an impact the Republicans will suffer as a result of their Covid denial. Then Biden looks as if he is about to have the best of both worlds a bipartisan infrastructure bill and another Democratic welfare infrastructure bill. All this has the impact of pouring money into the poor and middle class.
Biden with the help of Clyburn, Pelosi and Schumer are keeping the party centrist enough to counter the allegations that the four member "Squad" are pulling it into the Communist camp. Even Bernie Saunders recognizes the enormity of the threat and has become part of the Establishment.
So in the GOP retaking of the legislature the incumbent President is so far not a factor.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
America faces an existential threat to its democracy. If Trump’s Republican Party with its belief that only the whites are real citizens is realized through local and State voter suppression and gerrymandering there will be a Civil War type atmosphere. Trump's Republican Party’s underlying mantra is that Trump won the white vote by eight percent and only the whites and a few honorary non whites count. It is a campaign that has been waged by Trump for over a decade when he grabbed the headlines, daily, screaming that he had incontrovertible proof that Barack Obama wasn’t an American.
This whole drama should not be lost on those Senate Democrats who believe an archaic rule in the Senate is more important than American democracy. The filibuster must go and in one stroke all that State retrogressive voter suppression will be nullified.
One fact is for sure Trump’s dream of a popular uprising in his support has evaporated. All the right wing leaders are standing trial for his inspired insurrection.
Trump should be charged by the Garland Justice Department. The fact that they don’t strengthens the argument that America is veering towards a banana republic, not weakens it.
Finally, it has to be accepted that the GOP no longer supports democracy. In yet another book about to be released by Mary Trump, the leader's niece, she labels it fascist.
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