AFGHANISTAN - A STAIN ON BIDEN’S PRESIDENTCY? - GARBAGE!

Before even beginning on the human disaster unfolding in Afghanistan the context has to be taken into account. In early 2020 Trump unilaterally signed a "treaty" with the Taliban to pull American troops out of Afghanistan. He simultaneously was responsible for the release of five thousand terrorists several of whom were members of the ISIS K. A month later the processing of Special Visas for Afghani allies was stopped. He unilaterally withdrew American forces to a nominal two thousand five hundred. With this go ahead signal the unchallenged Taliban took over the provinces. When Biden announced the final withdrawal of a war he had wanted to stop ten years ago Trump claimed he had forced him into it and vehemently, with the support of the Fox echo chamber, opposed the settlement of any Afghani allies that America had promised shelter. According to the cult all the aforementioned and subsequent upheaval is owing to Biden's incompetence.

With everyone numbed by a daily digest of horror, largely as a result of climate change causing and exacerbating natural disasters, yet another human tragedy vies for the attention of the weary frustrated concerned.  The difference between the Afghanistan tragedy and all the other catastrophes is the belief that there is a simplistic solution to the Afghanistan “problem”. All that had to happen was that the American President had to hang in a bit longer than the twenty years to prop up the corrupt Afghani Government whose forces had folded quicker than a tent, fight off the Taliban and the newly energized ISIS K for yet another month or so and then find a way for half of the Afghan citizenry to orderly march to the airport and this would never have happened.  

For those that have forgotten, USA’s Bush and UK’s Blair removed the Taliban from their six year reign and replaced them with a succession of corrupt regimes. It just hasn’t worked out after two decades. 

 It is painfully obvious that the Afghanis are unable or incapable of sustaining  democracy. This inescapable fact and the withdrawal of American and NATO troops has led to the heart wrenching scenes with desperate men clinging onto planes as they take off and women locking themselves indoors only to emerge covered from head to toe in burkas. Inevitably some are going to be left behind. In anguish the world points a finger at Biden. At least in this calamity there is a scapegoat. The blame too for the fact that the Taliban can’t control their sworn internal enemies ISIS -K, has to be squarely placed on Biden.   

The fact is that this has been in an an astonishing logistical and diplomatic feat, under dangerous circumstances as over a hundred thousand souls, most of them Afghans, have been airlifted out of Afghanistan by August 25. That this is a scenario not of Biden’s design is totally ignored. Also largely unreported is that for months the State Department has been advising American citizens to leave. Sadly the predictable terrorist attacks have begun as witnessed at the airport which of course Biden will be blamed for. 

BIDEN’S CHALLENGE IN THE USA

As the world reacts in anger at the fact that Joe Biden the American President is not doing enough to stop Afghanistan from slipping back into the Middle Ages they have no insight into the fact that he is fighting on the home front to maintain power and influence against the forces of darkness in his own country. The latter led by Donald Trump don’t give a hoot about the Taliban in fact they are directly responsible for the current mess and as far as they are concerned the Afghanis, all of them, can rot in hell. If Biden doesn’t come out on top in the USA,  Western values will totter. Populism will have triumphed in the world’d most powerful and rich country.

In addition the nay sayers are totally underestimating the political and practical balancing act that Biden is effecting at the moment between his domestic and international challenges. Afghanistan ranks fourth in Democratic priorities at the moment in their political struggle. Firstly there is the massive voter suppression efforts by Trump’s GOP cult. Secondly is the rampage of Covid which the cult are in fact flaming and then blaming Biden for not ending. Thirdly, is their humungous financial packages which will go a long way in closing the gap between the have and have nots. 

Joseph Biden, who has been President of the United States for less than nine months, as a result of the chaotic scenes to rescue Americans, foreign nationals and Afghani allies, has had his Presidency written off as a disaster. The fact that the tragedy unfolding in Kabul is even remotely being regarded as a pivotal point in his fifty year long political career is reflective of the superficiality of analysis of reality and the instantaneous media world that currently exists. It is the equivalent of taking one frame out of a movie reel and claiming that defines the story. The frame itself is blurred and needs a timeous process to evaluate and analyze the true picture represented in that fragment. That will be done by at least five Congressional investigations. Incidentally as the picture begins to appear slowly into focus victims are being airlifted out of Kabul in unprecedented numbers and the CIA Director has already been in one on one talks with the Taliban. All this while a mind boggling logistical feat is being effected under the most dangerous circumstances as the Taliban’s enemy ISIS- K has just shown with its suicide bombings. 

RUSH TO JUDGEMENT ON BIDEN

In America there is also been a rush to judgment by some liberal pundits to show how truly unbiased they really are by hammering Biden.The world wide reaction illustrates further that political pundits wherever they regard what is happening in America as more important than their own homegrown politics. The tragedy playing out in Afghanistan is a small piece of a large dysfunctional puzzle and focussing on it as if it is the be all and end all of whether Biden is a bumbling idiot or the man of the twenty second century and potentially the most transformative American president of a life time is disingenuous and destructive. 

Take a deep breath everyone before sounding off. Biden on the American and world stage has reversed a trend in the West of populism that has spread as rapidly as the Covid virus. He is navigating a return to almost normalcy in a world that is undergoing an economic, industrial. political, ideological and social revolution, in addition to coping with the greatest pandemic in a century. This he has done in an America that is witnessing an attempt to overthrow its democracy by one of the two political parties, one of which now operates as a white supremacy cult. He is battling to unite the country over their heads and has already forced the representatives of the Republican party into a significant bipartisan piece of legislation. He has attempted to rejoin the world and is in word and deed committed to combatting climate change. In America he is trying to effect historic transformative programs to combat the deficiencies the free market has created.

BIDEN AFGHANISTAN  POLICY EVACUATION AND COOPERATION

Jay H.Ell blogged last week on the Afghanistan crisis and outlined that the fix was in for the chaos that has ensued. (Blog: BIDEN’S AND THE GOP CULT’S CHOICES ON AFGHANISTAN AND COVID). There really was very little Biden could  have done to prevent what has transpired. The moment he actually started withdrawing his troops inevitably half of Afghanistan would want to get out. The Afghani government was corrupt, the army were not prepared to fight and the President fled so what was Biden supposed to do? 

Biden has for over a decade believed, stated and campaigned that the American philosophy of Neo colonialism, albeit it for altruistic nation building. was counter productive, paternalistic and wrong. This is now being interpreted as abandoning the world. Biden in the teeth of criticism has owned his decision to evacuate by August 31. His explanation as to how he derived at that outcome is interpreted in some quarters as placing the blame on his intelligence and military. The fact that he is not defensive about his actions and his repeated assertion that the buck stops with him gives the lie that he is trying to duck responsibility.

The Biden administration has put out comprehensive documentation as to the fact that they were in constant contact with American allies, NATO, the UN Security Council and the G7. In one of his several public appearances, Biden clarified, “….everyone of them knew and agreed with the decision I made to jointly end involvement in Afghanistan…” 

Biden, on August 24, had yet another publicized meeting with the G7, the outcome of which he announced in yet another effort at transparency. He stated that the troops would be withdrawn on August 31, (to keep the Taliban happy) but has asked the Pentagon to make contingency plans, (to answer the concerns of the G7 and everyone else).  Secretary of State Blinken clarified what Biden meant in no uncertain terms  -  the rescue of those eligible will continue past August 31 should it be necessary. In an obvious diplomatic sop he withdrew some of his troops as of August 24, by which time he had airlifted a staggering hundred thousand out of Kabul. He mobilized commercial as well as military aircraft in the effort. In addition the CIA were flying helicopters all over the country to bring refugees to the airport.

 

Anthony Blinken Secretary of State in an interview with Fox News outlined some of the further contacts that the Biden Administration has had with nations and the work behind the scenes prior to the evacuation.”… we have a hundred and thirteen countries, thanks to our diplomacy, put on a clear understanding as to the Taliban’s requirements,…..(there has been) deep appreciation from our allies and partners for what we have done to bring our allies and partners out of harm’s way……”

Ned Price of the administration listed the countries that had offered to create transitory refuge and or accept the refugees. These included Bahrain, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Kazakstan, Kuwait, Qatar, Tajikistan, Turkey, UAE, United Kingdom, Uzbekistan, Albania, Columbia, Canada, Costa Rica, Chile. Kosovo, Mexico, Macedonia, Rwanda, Poland, Uganda and Ukraine. 

The continued presence in Afghanistan was as result of George Bush’s nation building effort, Obama never had the political heft to reverse it and Trump’s solution was to sabotage it and then kick the can down the road. Then he stopped the Special Visa application process to produce the crisis it did. Biden had the courage of his and every one else’s convictions and is now blamed for the mess.

IN AMERICA THE PROXY POLITICAL WAR IS OVER COVID

Joe Biden functions in a split America and as the de facto leader of a rudderless world. However to be able to do anything anywhere he has to maintain power. His own political party represents a spectrum in itself. At present it is narrowly in control of the legislature which does not function on a parliamentary system along strict party lines. He has to cope with powerful factions on the left and right that can upset his majority in the blink of an eye. This in addition to battling a cynical opposition that is quite prepared to abandon reality in an attempt to retain power and keep America a white autocracy. They are even prepared to pretend that Covid 19 does not represent a threat as literally tens of thousands are dying like flies around them. It is in this milieu that the evacuation of Afghanistan is taking place.

The rest of the world cannot understand why the Kabul calamity has not been front and center in American politics. It has been on the front pages of other international  media. The consensus of the American population is that America needed to get out for a host of reasons. The news, in the teeth of Kabul, is on Covid and its resurgence and the fact that it has become politicized. It is now the proxy for the battle between the cult and Biden. The former believe that if Biden cannot contain the pandemic, as it is the central focus of his agenda, they will win the mid terms and takeover the legislature. So when he offers a booster dose before the world has received two it has a political overtone as well as a medical significance. Those that are screaming at at him for doing so and claim that it is further evidence of him abandoning the world again have not the vaguest understanding of the American political situation. Currently Biden is donating more vaccine doses than the rest of the world put together, If the Secretary General of UNO wants that to stop then the way to do it would be to let Biden lose the legislature. 

How Biden has conducted the proxy war with the Republicans has in itself been an object lesson in restraint, organization and political genius. In America’s byzantine system of government he has been in no position to issue mandates. In any case that would have been just the battleground his adversaries would have enjoyed. Instead he has fought a public health battle. Furthermore he hasn’t belittled those who have for political reasons refused the vaccine or claimed that it is their selfish right to decide. The President hasn’t not made political capitol out of the fact that some of his most vociferous antagonists have come down with the virus. It is only now when the desperate Republican Governors have introduced legislation to prevent school boards for mandating mitigating strategies has he enjoined them just to get out of the way if they don’t want to help

For the moment Biden’s approval numbers have dropped a few percent. This is not for his handling of Afghanistan but, perversely, because he has not controlled the pandemic in the Republican areas that have wrested control of the management. 

BIDEN AND AMERICA 

America is far far far from being perfect, - just go through Jay H. Ell’s archive of blogs. In relation to the world it is like a rich paternalistic well meaning uncle who, more often than not, when doling out his largesse lets you know it is it’s way or the highway. So an ambivalent world accepts the handouts while it is resentful at some of the impositions and its dependence of American leadership. 

The US is a strange mixture of ingenuity generosity graft inequality and aspirational commitment to reach a perfect Union. It has see sawed throughout its history between the poles of white supremacy and being a leader in inclusiveness as reflected by the election of two succeeding Presidents  -  Barack Obama and Donald Trump. 

For better or for worse the trait that exists in America for entrepreneurship and inventiveness has resulted in it being the richest and most powerful country in the world. For the moment the outcome of power between America’s two factions hangs in the balance. Jay H Ell is of the belief that having Joe Biden at the helm allows it the best possible hope to bend the ark of history in the right direction. He is poised to join the Roosevelts, Reagan and Johnson as being one of the transformative Presidents of the past century and a half. 

It is almost insane to begin to write Biden off for a disaster he didn’t create. In fact he was trying to undo America’s hubris in thinking it can enforce its value system by a concoction of its own perceived interests and enforcing Western democracy through the barrel of a gun.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

In an unsettled world where the Western democracies are fighting for survival, Islamic fundamentallsm is growing stronger in certain Shia and even Sunni sectors, America sees its greatest threats from China and Russia. All this taking place at the time of a media and digital revolution while climate change threatens the planet. 

There is no doubt that Biden’s America will take a hit over his Afghani stance. It will take another defeat of the Trump cult to convince the world that “America is Back”.

The Taliban will find running Afghanistan a different kettle of fish than twenty years ago with a far more sophisticated, educated, politically aware citizenry and women who no longer know their place. Not to mention ISIS - K who have been challenging them since 2014.

It has to be the toughest for those who lost love ones in this twenty - year war. Like all those left behind on the side that lost a war there has to be wondering whether their sacrifice was worth it. Certainly the pain of the family of the thirteen soldiers who have just succumbed to a terrorist attack. If it is any consolation their President has vowed to make them pay. They can rest assured that he will. 

BIDEN’S AND THE GOP CULT'S CHOICES ON AFGHANISTAN AND COVID

All hell broke loose and descended on the person of Joseph Biden President of the United States of America as the Taliban took over Afghanistan in the process of the United States withdrawal of two thousand five hundred troops. The, in retrospect, predictable chaos followed when literally thousands of Afghans some who qualified for special visas, Americans and other foreign passport holders rushed the Kabul airport in a desperate effort to flee from the barbaric Taliban. 

Most of the opprobrium emanated from the self same people who have stood by while six hundred and twenty thousand Americans have died as a result of their unwillingness to assist the mitigation and prevention of the outcome of a viral pandemic. Even worse they legislated, supported and  promoted non compliance of safety precautions and vaccine administration. 

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Both these responses were political to further the Republican Party cult. The aforementioned tragic shambles was a direct result of their cult leader’s sell out to the Taliban in his last year in office and the latter a cynical sacrifice of Americans in a last gasp attempt to assure minority white rule in America. The Republicans have lost their minds. Insanity has to be catchy. 

The Republican hypocrisy becomes even more in focus when the immediate genesis of this ignominious withdrawal is as a result of an agreement, in February 2020,  with the Taliban by the self same Trump and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to unilaterally withdraw from Afghanistan. Then the cult offered no criticism. Those that shouted the loudest at Biden were the quietest when Trump did his deal in the " Peace Agreement"  in Douha, Qatar in February 2020. 

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Meanwhile the Republican Governors, particularly in Texas and Florida, have enacted laws to prevent entities from protecting  their customers or schoolchildren. It seemed like a scene from Mad Magazine to see the hypocritical thrice vaccinated, presumably immunocompromised,  Covid infected, Texas Governor Abbot in a wheel chair careering around among a jam packed maskless gathering of six hundred of the moneyed Republican cult. Nobody told him that he could be carrier and infect others with the Delta variant that could then mutate. In the words of former Bush operative Nicole Wallace “I keep wondering whether there is any lower the Republicans can go”.

As an aside all the ICU beds in Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansa and Texas were said to be full. Nearly all the patients were suffering from Covid. The USA cases are now exceeding over a hundred thousand a day. The State Governments stuck to their guns that there were to be no school mandates for Covid mitigation as the number of pediatric cases rose exponentially. Two ICU’s were opened in parking garages in Mississippi. 

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TRUMP’S DEFENSE MINISTER ATTACKS TRUMP’S ORIGINAL SELL OUT TO TALIBAN

Former Defense Minister Mike Esper, claimed that Trump undermined his own misguided unilateral deal with the Taliban by attempting to get all the US Troops out before Christmas 2020, presumably Jay H. Ell guesses to help his re election campaign. Esper states he formally objected to Trump’s moves in a letter. The latter was based on recommendations of Esper’s military chain of command that they not reduce the American presence below four and a half thousand troops unless the conditions of the 2020 Douha agreement were met by the Taliban. “Otherwise”, Esper informed Christiane Amanpour, “we would see a number of things play out, which are unfolding right now in many ways”. Unsurprisingly Trump fired Esper in November 2020 just prior to the election.

The agreement that the former Defense Minister referred to was signed by the Trump government and the Taliban in Douha Qatar in February 2020.

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As another aside the Governor of Texas threatened school authorities that should they persist with their mask mandates State funds would be withdrawn. Biden promised to make good the withheld salaries. Simultaneously the Federal Government were sending temporary container morgues to Florida as well as ventilators. The Florida State Government also asked the School Board if they could use an empty school as a temporary hospital for Covid cases. Both in Florida and Texas school boards defied their governors.

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TRUMP’S RESPONSE TO THE AGREEMENT WITH THE TALIBAN IN FEBRUARY 2020

What should go down in infamy was supported by the Republican cult - Trump meeting with the Taliban in February 2020 without the  Afghan Government to pull the US troops out of Afghanistan. It’s all on tape. Trump declaring that his initiative would bring peace to the region, including that and the usual Trump tripe, “We have been killing terrorists by the thousands in Afghanistan. It is time someone else did the work. It would be the Taliban and it could be surrounding countries”. Yes Trump really said all that and more. How quickly his drivel is forgotten, But wait, as the commercials go, there is more. “I really believe the Taliban”, he opined with his usual authority. Not surprising really as he really believed Putin, Rocketman and other right wing fundamentalist leaders and countries on the planet.  As the forty fifth president concluded, “It has been a long and hard journey. It’s finally over after all these years to bring our people home”. 

So the die was set on one of the few issues that Trump and Biden agreed upon. However as Espen also stated the Taliban did not fulfill its obligations so Trump’s troop withdrawal to the bare bones should not have happened. By the time Biden was about to fulfill the agreement the Taliban had done its work on the ground ready to take over the country the moment the Americans packed their bags. Trump had given him them the go ahead.

Mike Pompeo, one of the few Trump lieutenants who lasted more than two years, was in Douha in person. His comment was that he “really hopes” that the Taliban cut ties with Al Qaeda. 

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The daily case rates of Covid are reaching new highs nearing a hundred and fifty thousand. Biden announced the necessity for a third shot of the vaccine when eighty million eligible Americans, predominantly of the cult, have refused even one.

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TRUMP’S “AGREEMENT” WITH THE TALIBAN

Within a hundred and thirty - five days Trump would decrease troops to eight thousand six hundred. According to the BBC the latter was to allow Trump to tout this as an achievement before the 2020 election.The full withdrawal would be in fourteen months - kicking it down the road - nor did he make any arrangements to get the State Department to issue the Special Visas. (Little did Trump know he would not be President). There was a prisoner swap  - five thousand Taliban terrorists for one thousand Afghan Security forces. Trump would lift the sanctions against the the Taliban there and then and get the UN to abandon its sanctions. There had to be an undertaking, by the Taliban, to have talks with the Afghan Government which they didn't and no firing on US forces which they stuck to. However they carried on their war with the Afghans and prepared for the takeover. Nothing about women’s rights in “The Agreement”

Following the “Douha Peace Agreement”, the Taliban initiated nearly five thousand attacks on the Afghans and killed nearly a thousand citizens. They refused to negotiate with the Afghan Government and quietly and methodically took control, bought off and bullied a large number of the leaders of the provinces. Needless to say the Afghan President was not happy about the deal, claiming that it was not up to the Trump Government to release prisoners among other criticisms. One of those released prisoners is about to become President or whatever of Afghanistan and President Rhani is no longer there. 

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A number of Southern States announced that they have run out of pediatric ICU beds. In Mobile, Alabama they have a permanent shortage of ambulances to transport patients as the health care system is close to collapse - yet another red state that requires Biden’s Federal Government assistance. Masks in schools are not mandatory there.

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WHAT BIDEN COULD AND COULD NOT DO

 As withdrawal had been a campaign promise Biden had no desire to go back on what Trump had set into motion. However he could not turn back the clock on how Trump stood by as the Taliban broke the agreement for his last year in office. Biden’s intelligence must have told him that the Taliban had made advances in the provinces and that it would be just be a question of time before they eventually took over. However he had been reassured again and again that the well equipped Afghan forces could hold off the insurgents.  General Milley subsequently admitted that they estimated it would take the Taliban at worst a number of weeks and at best a few years. Biden consulted with President Ghani and counseled him to form alliances with opposition parties. Needless to say he didn’t. Ghani did however reassure them that they would fight to the bitter end. Biden moved Trump’s deadline to August 31 presumably to get the evacuation ducks in a row.

Well it certainly didn’t end as Biden had hoped and his retrospective disclaimer that there had to be chaos rung a bit hollow. More to the point is his acceptance of responsibility, “the buck stops here”, and “there is never a good time to leave” being nearer the mark. The internal dressing down of the military and intelligence were left to private confrontation but his  public anger against President Ghani was for all to see. The folding of the Afghan forces and their President’s funk lent credibility to his claim as to why no more American or NATO lives should be lost defending Afghanistan when the Afghanis weren’t prepared to fight for their own country.

Whichever way this is looked at Biden did not come out of this well internationally. He does appear to have committed to evacuate the Afghans who assisted the Americans over twenty years, who are otherwise certain to be massacred by the Taliban. The doubts that Trump raised as to what type of an ally America would be in the twenty first century will linger on. 

But on the home front the assessment would be far different. He came through as “telling as it is", sticking to his story and at least once doing what he promised - get the Americans out of an unwinable war. He unlike those before him, including Trump, did not kick the can down the road. He told all and sundry he expected criticism and he could not have been disappointed. The veterans who knew on the ground how useless and corrupt the Afghan army and government were had one issue in the main - the rescue of their Afghan support. 

The pressure will be on Biden to do more for the Afghanis and families that have been left behind. He has some levers, Afghanistan's money has been frozen. The Taliban are going to need support and international recognition so there has to be a period where he can pressure them to deliver. He won’t send troops in for them as he might for the Americans he claims he has been begging to leave for months.  So far he has over sixty percent of the American population’s support as the majority of the cult mercilessly attack him. 

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Florida Republican Governor De Sanctis lied, akin to criminal negligence, that there was no science behind masks for children. He has opened clinics where Regeneron, the monoclonal antibody can be administered. Full disclosure, de Santis’s main backer stands to make a fortune as a result of the purchase thereof at fifteen hundred dollars a shot. 

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AT THE END OF THE DAY

It is hard to imagine that Taliban Two are going to be a much better model than Taliban One. The Afghani women are under no illusions and are nowhere to be seen. When they do emerge they do so in their newly acquired Burkhas. The fundamentalists are going to run the country on religious Shariah Law not democracy they have declared. Shariah Law encompasses everything from burkhas to murder. While it varies in different situations the Taliban holds extremist views that maintain, the rights, for example, of women, should be in the hands of Islamic men clerics.

There is some fluidity in the situation as Biden keeps his cards very close to his chest with negotiations and decisions of this nature with foreign leaders. There are ongoing negotiations going on with the Taliban leadership. Whichever way this is viewed the photo optics are heartbreaking. It is going to get uglier and uglier. In fact it is hard to see how American troops are not going to get involved. The Republicans will pile it on Biden forgetting the warning of the Defense Secretary who Trump fired a few weeks before the electorate in relation to Trump’s “Peace Agreement" with  the Taliban, that he, Trump, had set into motion what is happening today.

It is not hard to imagine that there is no fluidity in the Republican cult’s positions.They believe that with voter suppression they are poised to retake the House. At kindest they have all gone mad and at worse they have become a minority racist science denying cult that are using every possible stratagem to cling on to power including returning to the days of the Civil War combined with Jim Crow and disregarding the lives of American citizenry to a preventable disease.

WILL TRUMP AND HIS GOP CULT’S ASSAULT ON DEMOCRACY SUCCEED?

 

Donald Trump is once again putting together a coalition, a blend of dark money and constituencies to enable him, with a minority of the US electorate, to win the 2024 Presidency or at least remain the central figure in American politics for the foreseeable future.  Using his cult like base, showmanship, snake oil salesmanship, bluff and lies he has taken over the Republican Party. Together they are all living in an alternate reality, their Brave New World, in order to make America an authoritarian state.

Deprived of a social media platform, Trump has commandeered the GOP elected representatives as his standard bearers to ensure his total domination. The latter have joined in on a national level on The Big Lie that he won the election and that the January 6 insurrection was a minor event at worst or a peace loving protest at best. On the State and local arenas the Republicans have introduced legislation to nobble the minority vote and give the legislators the right to overturn an election. The Supreme Court has already allowed voter suppression legislation to stand so reprieve is unlikely from that quarter.. Justice Clarence Thomas in the Bush v Gore dispute was supportive of State bodies overthrowing election results. He should have no difficulty in finding four other Conservatives to back him should push come to shove. 

The obstacles to achieving Trump’s goal are many. They include his legal woes, the institutions guarding democracy, the fact that the characteristic drop of the electorate’s support of the Party in the WhiteHouse has not materialized, the media and the lower courts. In addition there is the Democratic fund raising, the Democratic legislation supporting the traditional working class, his and his party’s gay oblivion of the ongoing pandemic and the significant drop in GOP membership. 

Jay H Ell believes that Trump’s power is over rated and that the GOP hierarchy is not only making a shameful moral mistake but a political one as well. This sadly doesn’t take away from the destructiveness of Trump’s actions and the threat to democracy.

THE CULT - THE BASIS OF TRUMP’S POWER.

Central to Trump’s power is his cult following. Perhaps the scariest article to emerge of late is an interview with the Democratic House of Representative member, Jackie Speier who was part of a delegation led by Congressmen Ryan who visited the cult of Jim Jones in Guyana, decades ago.  Their purpose was to check up on the well being of a number of Ryan’s constituents. The delegation had a first hand encounter with the unsavory operation. However there were some followers who wanted out and another plane was sent for. As they were all embarking Jones's people started firing at them killing Ryan and four others while leaving Speier for dead, having been shot five times. 

Congresswoman Speier now makes a direct comparison of Trump with Jim Jones of the Peoples Temple who she claims “forced” his flock to do illegal acts and finally mesmerized nine hundred to kill themselves. They were both “charismatic merchants of deceit” who prayed on the dissolutioned, dissafected and those "looking for something". It took Ms. Speier twenty - nine years to come to this conclusion - a conclusion she had fought shy of. She reasons that Trump’s larger following is due to social media so that all these “lost souls can find themselves in a way they couldn’t before”. The similarity between Jones and Trump extends to the extent they get people not to look at the truth and their ability to get them to do illegal acts. 

Ms Speier states that the biggest tragedy is that her colleagues in the legislature, whether they like it or not, have become members of the cult. They know that Biden won the election fairly and the havoc reached on January 6…..

The madness of the Trump cult extends to their denial of the Covid pandemic with over six hundred and twenty thousand dead. Initially the devastation was in the blues states so who cared ? Now the delta variant is ravaging the red states, chief among them being Florida and Texas which account for one third of the new cases. In spite of this the madcap Governors De Sanctis and Abbot, both of whom have presidential ambitions, have not only not legislated to decrease the surge but rather made it illegal for local authorities to make mask mandates for children and college students returning mandatory. The impact of all these efforts has resulted in thirty one percent of the Republicans vowing never to be vaccinated!

The strength of Trump at the moment lies with his recruitment of the Republican Establishment from the Central Committee to the legislators in every segment of governance all drinking the Kool Aid.

THE INVESTIGATIVE ACTIVITIES INVOLVING TRUMP AND THE IMPACT ON THE CULT

Trump has always lived on the edge, now he is on the precipice. In general he will use all allegations, charges, revelations, indictments and even convictions to rally more support from the cult. He is always the victim preyed upon, mocked at by the establishment and elites. First they steal the election from him and now they persecute him. As matters stand he is banking on the more they persecute him the stronger his people will react. Jay H. Ell believes he fantasizes that January 6 was a minor dress rehearsal. 

Ironically Trump’s biggest threat is where he is not the accused in the dock or when he is not the subject of investigation. The trials of the January 6 insurrectionists are his biggest weakness for a number of reasons. Firstly, the central theme of all their defenses are either “The President Sent Me” or “I did it for the President” - the equivalent of the insanity plea! This defense has been mercilessly attacked by the presiding Judges thus far. More significantly is that the leadership infrastructure of the "Trump army" will be smashed.

The Three Percenters, The Proud Boys, Boogaloo, Rise Above The Nation, The Oath Keepers and Q’Anon were some of the about a dozen right wing “terrorist” groups who participated. These groups are not unknown to the FBI whose Director Christopher Wray has testified to Congress again and again emphasizing the threat white domestic terrorists are to the country.Those that Trump has blessed as peace loving protestors, “who care about the election results” are thus labelled domestic terrorists by the FBI and are being tried as such.There are five hundred cases pending and as yet none of the conspiracies behind the insurrection have been the subject of litigation. The leaders of these groups are going to be behind bars. The problem for the  the GOP is that they have gone along with the Trump narrative. 

In addition to the court cases is Pelosi’s committee, which has subpoena powers, investigating January 6. Already the Capitol Police’s public fury at the lack of Republican support for those who risked their lives for them has spilled into into public arena. Minority Republican leader Kevin McCarthy made two mistakes relating to the House Committee’s investigation, by initially nominating two alleged co conspirators and then pulling out his delegation entirely when Pelosi refused to accept them. Pelosi outmaneuvered him by putting two Republicans on the Committee who are anxious to “get at the truth”.

Trump himself faces both civil litigation and criminal litigation for January 6. The latter is hardly likely to be initiated by the Biden Administration. The most recent memo to be released by the Biden Justice Department, written immediately after Trump tried to persuade Barr’s successors to reverse their findings that no electoral corruption had taken place. “Just say it was corrupt’ and he “would do the rest”, was his command.  Interestingly enough he stated that he would be helped by the Republican legislature and specifically named Jim Jordan, one of McCarthy’s picks for the January 6 investigation committee. 

Besides the civil litigation the biggest legal threat that Trump faces is from local State and Federal agencies. There is a racketeering act that was brought in to take on the mob where several instances of malfeasance can be brought together to make a case. As Michael Cohen his former lawyer testified you never got a direct instruction, nothing was ever written down and there were no e mails. Rather a conversation might go like this, Jay H. Ell imagines, “ Stormy Daniels is a liar. The situation needs to be rectified as it could unfairly impact my campaign. See to it that the lies stop and truth prevails. All your expenses will be paid. Contact the editor of the National Enquirer who is a patriot I am sure he will help you.”. 

While there is fatigue on January 6 generally the impact of these investigations, the court cases and Trump litigation cannot be positive for Trump and his Republican Party. It certainly will not win over any undecided voters.

THE MONEY

There are literally billions being sploshed around. Trump himself has a hundred million in his kitty. Incidentally his “Save America” and other PACS have probably committed fraud. The money was collected ostensibly to challenge the fraudulent election and he has not spent a penny on that imagined objective. The sums that the money collected from the cult thus far have been allocated to his good self and tiny bits to support nominees in local races. (It also must be realized that money sent to Trump is money not sent to the Republican National Committee to be strategically used). The vast sums spent on recounts and litigation in courts that the election was rigged have come from elsewhere and not paid for by Trump.

The New Yorker ran an extensive piece on August 2 on the unlimited moneys being spent on, “Donald Trump’s attacks on democracy that are being promoted by rich and powerful groups determined to win at all costs”. These are the entities promoting  conspiracy theories that feed into the cult’s mantra. Even the donors of boodle that Mitch McConnell can flood the Senate floor with, although he is backing candidates that can win rather than Trumpists, are careful not to whisper anything nasty about Trump. 

The Democrats have their own sources in this obscene carnage of resources that is directed at American elections. One of the Democratic PACS, which collects small donations netted a record three hundred million dollars this last quarter - an unbelievable sum eighteen months off a midterm election. The Democrats too have their big donors. Interestingly increasingly large amounts are being raised by Republicans attempting to block Trump as reported in The Guardian of August 4. Candidates such as Liz Cheney are trawling large hauls for local races as well as is the PAC “Keeping Country First”.

So the money will probably not make the difference. If anything Trump stuffing his personal coffers will not go to support the cause. So far he has offered no legal support to the hundreds charged with following his exhortations to go to the Capitol.

THE BIDEN EFFECT

The numbers show that the forty - sixth President’s approval scores have not budged. The Republicans, try as they may, have been unable to make him the focus of the midterm elections. It is still their shaman Donald. This is a set back because the midterms gains of the non WhiteHouse party have been traditionally on the basis that the President has inevitably not delivered on all his promises. Well first of all even if he hadn’t it is still all about the loser Trump. In fact Biden has come through. Covid vaccinations have come a long way and who knows what an impact the Republicans will suffer as a result of their Covid denial. Then Biden looks as if he is about to have the best of both worlds a bipartisan infrastructure bill and another Democratic welfare infrastructure bill. All this has the impact of pouring money into the poor and middle class. 

Biden with the help of Clyburn, Pelosi and Schumer are keeping the party centrist enough to counter the allegations that the four member "Squad" are pulling it into the Communist camp. Even Bernie Saunders recognizes the enormity of the threat and has become part of the Establishment. 

So in the GOP retaking of the legislature the incumbent President is so far not a factor.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

America faces an existential threat to its democracy. If Trump’s Republican Party with its belief that only the whites are real citizens is realized through local and State voter suppression and gerrymandering there will be a Civil War type atmosphere. Trump's  Republican Party’s underlying mantra is that Trump won the white vote by eight percent and only the whites and a few honorary non whites count. It is a campaign that has been waged by Trump for over a decade when he grabbed the headlines, daily, screaming that he had incontrovertible proof that Barack Obama wasn’t an American.

This whole drama should not be lost on those Senate Democrats who believe an archaic rule in the Senate is more important than American democracy. The filibuster must go and in one stroke all that State retrogressive voter suppression will be nullified. 

One fact is for sure Trump’s dream of a popular uprising in his support has evaporated. All the right wing leaders are standing trial for his inspired insurrection.

 Trump should be charged by the Garland Justice Department. The fact that they don’t strengthens the argument that America is veering towards a banana republic, not weakens it. 

Finally, it has to be accepted that the GOP no longer supports democracy. In yet another book about to be released by Mary Trump, the leader's niece, she labels it fascist.