CAN BIDEN SAVE AMERICAN DEMOCRACY?

President Biden announced with all the pomp and circumstance that he could muster, in an effort to reassure the world and himself, that “America Was Back” and that he had retaken the mantle as the world’s leader of democracy. A skillfully designed sequence of meetings was set up where he could sing to the choir, who then could, more in hope than sincerity, chant amen, led up to him admonishing the poster child of totalitarianism Vladimir Putin of Russia. He let the Russian dictator know however that two could play the game of cyber warfare by taking a page out of his predecessor’s playbook, by murmuring under his breath, “Nice little oil pipeline you’ve got there. It would be a pity if it stopped flowing”. 

Having established his international democratic credentials and the fact that he could do what he had to do to protect  democracy on the world stage, he returned to America to attempt to save it there. The task had become more and more difficult as the Republican Party, like so many authoritarian entities before it, was using the democratic framework to destroy it. McConnell outright said he was not around to fulfill the electorate’s decision to allow the President to set an agenda. McConnell is more than aware that Republican support for a key Biden agenda item confers legitimacy as a President for all Americans. Republican State legislatures were out there doing their bit  by not allowing Democrats to vote as the whole tribe swore fealty to their cult leader Donald J. Trump. As more and more was uncovered of his Presidential mob - type operation the more the party clung to his leadership. 

The Republican Party in effect have sanctioned an unlawful insurrection and were now deserting democracy as it is understood in the Western World. They were going to have elections just like Russia and Iran but unlike them they were going to allow any one to stand. Instead they were going to limit who could vote and they would designate to themselves the right to change the election result if the outcome wasn’t what they wished for. They were not even prepared to debate the issue. Not one single Senate Republican voted to allow the For The People Voting Bill to be debated. They did the latter with the full knowledge that they would have been able to vote on an amendment which had accommodated several of their objections to the original act. The amendment had arisen out of an attempt to create bipartisanship.

However Biden had one further major piece of legislation that Republicans could not just blindside - the infrastructure Bill. It would hard to go back to their constituencies and argue that the bridge collapsed because fixing it up supported socialism. Biden was continually negotiating in private on portions of the Infrastructure Bill that Republicans could support. If Biden succeeded in this endeavor he would enhance the Democrats chances in the midterms immensely.

BIDEN’S PROBLEMS WITH THE DEMOCRATS AND REALITY

Biden’s Democratic Party response to GOP anarchy was to play by the rules. At least the rules that had been forsaken by the Republicans a long time ago. The latter just did what they liked. Biden’s problem was that he was working with a majority of one in the Senate where the filibuster could be invoked which meant he needed sixty votes on non financial legislation. Biden was also being pressured by the left. Alexandria Occassio - Cortez claimed that they were losing patience that he wasn’t delivering and they threatened to vote against any compromise that was worked out. 

The answer was to dump the filibuster. The problem was two of Biden’s Senate caucus believed that this would go against the traditions of bipartisanship that characterized American democracy. Neither Joe Manchin or Krysten Sinema could comprehend that they would have no democracy at all if they hung on to this arcane Senate institution which only needed all the Democrats and Kamala Harris to throw it onto the dustbin of history. Why they have stuck to their naive position when Mitch McConnell the Republican leader of the Senate has made it quite clear that bipartisanship is out, is a mystery. There was not one Republican vote to be had on the For The People Voting Bill. 

So Biden who promised bipartisanship will be blamed for not delivering bipartisanship when the Republicans point blank refused to have any. He is also being castigated by the left in his party for not delivering on his promises. He has to be tempted to go back to Geneva and diss Putin and Belarus for their authoritarianism. But he can handle it all especially if he can get his infrastructure Bill through with some bipartisan support. 

WHAT ABOUT THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE? - IT IS THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILL STUPID

Manchin has produced an amended For the People Voting Bill that has got the backing of Stacy Adams, the Georgian marvel, who is the main mover and shaker in mobilizing the African American  vote. She nearly won the Georgian Governorship and masterminded the surprising Senate victories of two Democrats to the Senate. She has backed Manchin’s plan. So has Barack Obama. Manchin has to be persuaded to dump the filibuster so his hard earned effort to accommodate the Republicans, who subsequently deserted him, can bare fruit. Krysten Sinema has to become disabused that hanging on to an antiquated ritual in the Senate is not more important than democracy. However in the meantime life must carry on. The action to gain support for the Voting Bill has to be taken to the community.  This will take time and may not happen so the battle has to continue on other fronts. 

Biden has done his thing and spoken to the two holdouts who at least voted fo bring the issue to the floor. His number one priority is to get the Democrats to hold the legislature in the midterms. He has to decide where he is going to direct his energies. Being practical he has concentrated on the infrastructure bill. That has overwhelming public support and he can get it through the Senate with the 50 Democrats and Kamala Harris through reconciliation, as it involves finance. 

Biden  needs and has finally got bipartisan support for sections of it. The understanding is that Manchin and Sinema will buy into the rest which includes child care and climate change support and the Democrats will pass that by reconciliation. He has been working on this deal since the get go. He has been following the principle that you don’t negotiate in public.

 The Republicans red line is that it cannot be paid for by taxing the wealthy. They prefer a gas tax for the poor. However a formula on the bipartisan component whereby the money can be obtained without taxing the poor billionaires has been agreed upon. McConnell inferred that bipartisanship would only be over his dead body. However if all this hangs together Biden can march over the McConnell corpse. That solution wouldn’t have solved the Republican States’ efforts at joining democracy Iranian and Russian style, but is very helpful to the Biden cause. 

THE CONTINUED THRUST FOR THE PEOPLE VOTING BILL

One of Vice President Harris’s tasks is leading the bully pulpit on the voting legislation. She will be joined by the Senate Democratic members of the rules committee led by Amy Klobuchar. The latter will “be going on the road” to drum up constituency support that is close on eighty percent of the electorate. This illustrates that the Republican Party legislature at all levels are acting more and more in a vacuum. They only have three firm constituencies  - the Trump cult, the Evangelical social conservatives and most important their corporate backers. The sectors that they are losing out on are the urban and suburban women, the youth and the independents. They have also lost a large chunk of the white blue collar workers whose defection back to the Democrats cost Trump the election. (But no one is telling him). So there is very fertile ground for educating the public on the danger to the threat to democracy.

Then there are the usual groups that have been working day in and day out to protect voting rights. There is former Attorney General Eric Holder’s National Democratic Redistributing Center which has been in the forefront of the struggle against gerrymandering the voting constituencies. Other non profit organizations include End Citizens United and Let America Vote which has a thirty million dollar budget to promote the Bill. The New Georgia Project has worked for years to make the vote more inclusive. President Obama, who already has been very vocal on this issue seems set to campaign vigorously. 

The new Attorney General, Merrick Garland, has signaled that the Justice Department will be looking into voting rights issues and has asked for a large sum of money to employ double the  lawyers to effect this objective.  Garland addressed the Civil Rights division of the Justice Department on June 11 on the issue of voting rights. He welcomed Kristen Clark, an African American jurist who became the first woman to head the Department of Civil Rights. In her confirmation she only received one Republican vote. 

Garland cited legislation and Supreme Court precedents for enshrining the right of every citizen to vote. He noted that this work had begun in the 1870’s only to be thwarted by Jim Crow, The Lyndon Johnson voting rights act which sort to deligitimize against any attempt to hinder the African Americans’ right to the franchise. This was once again enshrined by the Reagan Government and by George W. Bush in 2006. The recent havoc was precipitated by a Supreme Court decision whereby they gutted the provision that certain States had to obtain permission to change their voting regulations. However Amendments fifteen, nineteen and twenty -sixth cover the right for all to vote.

To illustrate how far from orthodoxy the current Republic Party are from their original bedrock principles can be illustrated by a statement by Reagan, “The right to vote is the crown jewel of American liberties and we will not see its luster diminished”. Every Republican President from Nixon to Bush 43 have reaffirmed the constitutional and legislative right for all citizens access to the franchise. 

Garland stated that his department’s increase in lawyers will pursue the objective to protect the right to vote. To this effect the Civil Right Division will scrutinize new laws that seek to curb voter access. Where violations are noted there will be no hesitation in acting. Also laws which discriminate against black voters including where, for example, they have to wait in line substantially longer than their white counterparts will be vigorously litigated. Similarly the Justice Department will apply the same willingness to intervene in post - election audits. (Garland informed the meeting that the Department had already written to the Georgia legislature in connection with its current post electoral audit).

Notwithstanding the above and other endless ways Garland would enforce existing legislation and enactments he believed that it was essential for Congress to pass the Legislation on voting rights. Litigation is a slow and tedious process but Jay H. Ell has little doubt with American Democracy on the line this issue will receive the type of priority by the courts that it deserves. 

MEANWHILE HOW WILL THE POLITICAL EQUATION CHANGE IN THE INTERIM

The Justice Department will begin to roll out its prosecutions of approximately five hundred defendants in the January 6 insurrection of the Capitol by a mob inspired by Trump. Key white internal terrorist groups will be exposed in open courts. The Judges hearing these cases have already made it clear that the Republican spin on this insurrection is disgraceful. The question is how much blame will be laid at the foot of Trump. Nancy Pelosi is going to appoint a select committee to investigate January 6 which will send shudders through the Trump and Republican inner circle.

Trump almost simultaneously is planning his comeback with two mega rallies and a visit to his border wall that never happened. Litigation both criminal and civil against him and his company proceeds apace. One way or another Trump will be gulping much of the oxygen in the political atmosphere, none of which is likely to swing the independents, women and doubting evangelicals back to the Republican Party who believe it or not back him and his mob operation to the hilt. 

There is little doubt that the Democratic base are more inclined to back the moderate center as illustrated in recent primary elections. The latter usually favor the more extreme elements in the party and if the examples of the gubernatorial primaries in Virginia and New Jersey are anything to go by the priority is still to get rid of Trump and his party. Even in New York’s mayoral race, which has the most liberal constituency in the country and a population greater than that of thirty - eight states, the initial results point to wide spread support of moderates. It has to be remembered the outgoing mayor of New York was a Democratic Socialist and now a candidate, Maya Wiley, backed by the darling of New York’s left, Alexandria Occasio - Cortez, is struggling in the early voting. Incidentally Wiley is no flaming radical either having been in the Obama administration leaving the impression that Cortez’s backing may have been more of a hindrance than a help.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

American democracy is on the block. The Republicans have abandoned the American aspirational ideal and have in fact no policy. They unashamedly prefer not taxing billionaires in favor of adding a gas tax which would impact the poor disproportionately. They have accepted Trump as their leader and literally left policy making to him. They argue that January 6, was akin to tourists visiting the Capitol and even Pence has got over the fact that the mob had erected a gallows to hang him. They believe Trump when he says that the election was rigged. In fact they have abandoned democracy for power. 

With the above as a background Mitch McConnell claims that For the People Voting Bill is the attack on American Democracy. 

No - one put it better than Steve Schmidt the former Republican strategist who was John McCain’s Presidential campaign manager when he stated he had left the GOP because he had become a one issue voter. The issue was democracy. 

Biden remains the guiding force to keep America on a democratic keel. He will intervene when and where he will have the best political impact. Nobody better than he knows how much easier this all becomes if he is able to persuade Manchin and Sinema to join the team. If the deals on the infrastructure bills hold with the Republicans and within the Democratic caucus, he will have gained crucial credibility with the electorate ahead of the midterms.  

 

A MIRACLE JUST HAPPENED IN ISRAEL

An eight party unity Government has just been sworn into power in Israel. The Government which has the barest of majorities in the Israeli Knesset consists of three right wing parties, two centrist, two left wing and for the first time in Israel’s short history an Arab party. The deal was put together by centrist Yair Lapid, head of the Yesh Atid Party, who cobbled this disparate group, forging separate agreements with each and everyone. The  binding factor in this unprecedented deal, which is an experiment in political cooperation never imagined before, was a desire to remove long term Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, Israel’s autocratic populist leader. Netanyahu gambled all on, victimhood, division and nativism which also sealed the fate of his closest ally, Donald Trump. The bottom line of the coalition is a more secular Israel, support of minority groups such as LGBT, infrastructure and welfare legislation and a resolve to eliminate corruption. 

Reading the list of understandings Lapid made with the participants affords a window into the manifesto of the coalition. The latter reads uncannily similar to Joe Biden’s legislative wish list. In fact the relationship with America features strongly in the work to be done. The list of Cabinet Ministers and their job definitions illustrates the genius of Lapid. It is indeed nothing short of a miracle that he was able to do all this in the allotted twenty - eight day period, especially bearing in mind that in the middle Hamas indiscriminately rained down four thousand rockets on Israel. The terrorist group having been given the excuse by the previous Prime Minister who had evicted Arabs from their East Jerusalem homes. The eight separate accords evokes the specter of confrontation and some cynics believe it will be even a bigger miracle if the Government lasts six months. However Bibi Netanyahu’s presence as leader of the Opposition and current defendant in a corruption trial will be a constant reminder to them as to why they all went to these extraordinary lengths to form a regime. 

One fact is for sure is that there are a lot of unhappy citizens as well - the deeply religious right, the secular Arabs and Bibi’s cult followers. Just like in America the new Government will have to prove itself with about half the population on the other side. The pact represents a paradigm change in the way that government operates with each cabinet portfolio given autonomy and the move to a far more secular society. It is an open secret that Jerusalem and Tel Aviv are the centers of the two Israels. Well, notwithstanding the recent move of the American Embassy to Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, which is as hip as San Francisco, has become the de facto new capitol.

THE DEAL AT THE TOP

Yair Lapid, the centrist, is a charismatic former television anchor who put country before himself. It was he who was entrusted to form a government by President Rivlin after Netanyahu had failed. Crucial to his success, from the start, was to obtain the support of Naftali Bennett, who on the face of it was right of Bibi’s Likud. Bennett, who is an orthodox religious jew, heads the Yamina Party which is in favor of settlements while Lapid a confirmed secularist, still is committed to a two party solution between Israel and Palestine.This and other obvious clashes exist between the participants of the new government.  There are vetos that can be exerted so that the potential for dysfunction is great but for the moment giddy optimism reigns. 

Bennett will be Prime Minister for two years and Lapid would see out the remainder of the four year term. (To canniballize an old Yiddish joke - “the regime should only live so long”). Needless to say they have promised to serve all Israelis regardless whether they voted for them or not. It is fascinating to look at the initial job definitions of Prime Minister 13 and Prime Minister 14. Bennett, 13, is almost wholly concentrated on the domestic scene and Lapid, 14, as Foreign Minister has several departments thrown into the Ministry. He rather than Bennett will conduct international relations especially important being with the United States. A key stated objective in the latter is to llase with the Democratic Party to re establish bipartisan American support  for Israel. Also, bearing in mind that America has over six million jews, the majority of whom are not ultra orthodox, to reconnect with them as they have been alienated by Bibi. 

The Foreign Ministry will also conduct diplomatic relations with Palestine. 

Bennett's domestic agenda is massive with new hospitals, payment for universities for those who cannot afford tuition, a new university, establishment of hospitals and an additional airport, development of broadband, upgrading of Northern Israel, and on and on. Then there is Bennett’s advancement of the West Bank “on steroids” with a new transport system. Even Biden in his wildest dreams from his Delaware basement couldn’t match this wish list.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

There are cabinet posts for all the coalition parties except the Arab Islamists as their leader Abbas demurred. Bennett acknowledged Abbas’s courage especially when he attended a synagogue service in Lod which had been torn by internal strife between Israeli Arabs and Jews. The pledge to the Arab Raam party provides three billion shekels, (just under a billion dollars), to fight crime and other projects. Demolition of non conforming constructions are suspended till 2024 and full recognition of three Bedouin villages are other key components. 

It is noteworthy that key ministries are under the stewardship of former Netanyahu acolytes. Avidor Lieberman, Finance, has resolved to modestly increase the social safety net, He is also addressing the impact of the Covid pandemic especially in the tourism industry. Lieberman stresses the need to timeously produce budgets that meet the needs of society. He has reassured that there will be no tax hikes. Bennie Ganz retains the portfolio of defense and Gideon Sa’ar Justice. There is going to be a separation between the Chief Justice and Chief Prosecutor making it even harder for BiBi to squirm out of his predicament.

In order to keep everyone happy there are twenty - six other cabinet appointments. Lapid’s Yesh Atid’s party has eight. For the first time in well over a decade there are left wing members in the cabinet controlling the portfolios of health, environmental services, public security, Diaspora affairs, (2 members). , regional cooperation and law and constitution, Three additional positions go to the Gantz’s Centrist Blue and White Party. That means that twenty of the thirty - one members are centrist or left wing. This represents a seismic shift in the direction of Israeli politics. Even Lieberman’s secular center right Yisrael Beiteinu Party has radical ideas as to how Israeli society should look.

WHAT ELSE IS IN THE AGREEMENTS?

Besides the trove of welfare improvements, infrastructure, women and LGBT rights, climate change recognition, the most controversial policies are directed at taking away the absolute power of the extreme Orthodox in a host of areas. The allowing of conversion through regional and municipal rabbinical authorities appears innocuous on the surface but it a move that will send shudders through the current establishment. Also the proposal that there be only one Chief Rabbi in Israel will not be met with acceptance by the orthodox sects. This is an area where the coalition has to tread wearily as Bennett’s Yamina Party is religious and retains a veto on any legislation. 

In the agreements that Lapid made with other parties there is an emphasis on secularization such as public travel on the Sabbath, pluralistic prayer at the Western Wall and recognition of all gender partnerships. The further outreach to non orthodox communities in the diaspora to the extent of creating a cabinet position to do so is also considered a priority.

What is off the table for the moment is any settling of the Palestinian issue. That would smash the delicate fabric of the agreement to smithereens. There is however consensus to pour money into the West Bank as well as not to tolerate aggression by Hamas.

IMPACT IN REGION AND WORLD

The attitude towards Iran will not change under this arrangement. As long as the theocracy wants to wipe Israel of the face of the earth the stand off will remain. Generally, the country still remains highly suspicious of any deal made by the international five with the Iranians but the new administration will not repeat Bibi’s blunder by exacerbating the Democratic antipathy with his flagrant attack in the House of Representatives of Obama. The Bennett/Lapid leadership have made it quite clear that they want to consolidate the Abraham Accords. They will address the cooling off of relations with Jordan while attempting to expand regional relations. As long as the Sunni/Shia split endures Israel will grow more and more as the super power of the region. 

Israel has long maintained a supportive role in the world where ever there is a crisis or a tragedy sending medical teams and other support. That too will be maintained and enhanced. 

Where the new government are most anxious to regain acceptance is in the USA and Europe. This they can do by not behaving in an obnoxious and offensive manner. Netanyahu’s call to all the Jews to leave their respective countries evoked anger. They are more than mindful, one assumes, that the UNO will remain antipathetical to their existence, Biden has to be heaving a sigh of relief that he isn’t forced to deal with Netanyahu. His support of Israel to date has been unconditional. He will obviously do all he can with allies help to broker a two state solution.

All in all there has been a positive reaction to the outcome of the deliberations of Lapid and Bennett. While the sigh of relief has not been as audible as when Trump was ousted, the liberal democracies were bucked that another populist had bit the dust. The similarities between the American and Israeli situations were compared by famed New York Times columnist Tom Friedman who opined that the Israeli coalition was akin to Biden triumphing over Trump.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

It will take an heroic effort and restraint by the Israeli coalition to stay alive. It is not a disadvantage that Bennett is deeply seated in the religious community. His message to the country was that they must stand together. He alluded to the two occasions that the Jews were forced out of the country by the Babylonians and then the Romans. He correctly pointed out that it was only because the citizens were so deeply divided that this occurred.  A fact that is acknowledged by the sectors of the population who believe that Israel has a biblical as well as legal right to the land. 

There are those that believe a  two state solution will weaken Israel. The reasons are both biblical and secular. Well seventy five years of wars and terror should be persuasive enough that the status quo isn’t working. It would appear that realistically with Hamas acting as Iran's proxy, the moves should be made to work a solution with the West Bank. What ever Naftali Bennett is thinking his developments of the area are movements in that direction.

Another misconception is that Israel should not be preoccupied in satisfying the West that they are a democracy in the crazy region that is the Middle East. Israel should opt for democracy because not only is it morally correct but because it gives them the best chance for survival.

If the Republican legislators had a fraction of the moral spine exhibited in Israel, American democracy wouldn’t be hanging on by a thread. In the USA, in one way or another they are all terrified of the insane tyrant Trump and have not the gumption to tell him to go to hell. Bibi is far more powerful, intelligent and rational than Trump yet they risked his ire and permanent political oblivion if they fail. As more and more revelations come out on the mob operation that Trump’s presidency represented the more the Republicans feign boredom. 

Politics is not a game where one side plays by the rules and the other doesn’t. Ask McConnell who doesn’t even pretend it is fair not to mention the Republican State legislatures. 

MANCHIN, BIDEN, MCCONNELL AND OF COURSE TRUMP - 6/21

Six months into Biden’s Presidency two other players have cast a shadow over the forty - sixth Presidency -  the conservative Democratic Senator Joe Manchin and as expected the Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell. Traditionally this is the time period that the incoming Presidency can achieve the most. Trump, or at least McConnell, had affected the tax cut in favor of the rich and by this time had appointed over two hundred Federal Judges. Obama introduced Obamacare and managed an economic crisis while Biden, who has the most ambitious agenda of them all, has his Covid Act  and economic recovery.

The empathetic Biden has stuck to the rest of his vision whIch runs the gamut from infrastructure, social services such as child care, immigration to voting rights. However from the woodwork has emerged a little known Democratic Senator, Joe Manchin, from a blood red State who is putting a brake on transformation, while McConnell has vowed that his one objective is not to allow any Biden legislation to pass through the Senate. Last and certainly not least as of June 2021 is Donald J. Trump, who while he is planning his resurrection from the dead, is simultaneously facing the worldly prospect of jail time and transforming the Republican Party into an anarchist shambolic cult. 

To a lesser or greater extent all these dramatis personae are living in lalaland except of course Mitch McConnell who is nonplussed believing he is playing the Biden Presidency like a fiddle.  But even he can get overconfident. He is being unintentionally aided and abetted by the new kid on the block Joe Manchin who by insisting on bipartisanship could thwart any possibility of moving the needle of the Democratic legislative program. He could singularly alter the whole narrative of this era and help set America on a new path by going along with the party. 

Biden, meanwhile, is articulating his great vision both domestically and on the world stage. The forty sixth President needs no reminder that all his lofty ideals need to be translated into legislative reality. Biden’s domestic and global dreams are being stymied by the dysfunction in Washington, which is business as usual. Trump looms large over all this as the world awaits the revival of the Trump circus hitting the road again 

 What can break this logjam? The simple answer is Joe Manchin.

THE OTHER JOE - JOE MANCHIN

Joe Manchin is the man who refuses to go along with the the Biden plan as presented and to toss the filibuster which McConnell is banking on to halt the Biden dream.  Manchin, the Other Joe, is infuriating the Democrats and all their pundits who forget that if he wasn’t there the Dems would not be in the majority. The fact that he is there at all is nothing short of a miracle. Trump carried West Virginia in 2020 by nearly forty points. Joe Manchin is the only State wide elected Democrat in this crimson red state. He has occupied State elected positions  since 2001 including being a wildly popular Governor from 2005 to 2010 which year he was elected to the Senate. He has triumphed in two further elections. So it is fair to say he knows the Republican electorate’s mind.

Manchin’s central guiding principle, not surprisingly, is bipartisanship. He has gained endless experience at the latter since there are not too many Democrats in the West Virginia that he has led and served for two decades. It also stands to reason that he has to be pretty conservative, not supporting abortion being a stalwart of guns for starters. His social conservative credentials are regularly renewed in the Senate where he even voted for Judge Kavanaugh’s elevation to the Supreme Court. He is not in the lead to eliminate fossil fuels as West Virginia is one of the chief producers in America. To add to his bent he is a traditionalist in the truest sense being a great upholder of the Senate’s filibuster.

So Manchin has navigated his electability as a Democrat by being a social conservative and also being highly skilled at creating consensus and compromise. What the Other Joe doesn’t quite get is that there is a wide gulf of the behavior, actions and motives of the Republicans in the Senate versus those elected in a State where everyone is close to the voters and the legislators either deliver or don’t. The West Virginian Senator must have realized the polarization that has taken place in the Senate as compromise has becoming more and more impossible. He has consequently left the slightest wiggle room as he hits a brick wall again and again. Manchin’s current position is that the For The People Voting Bill is the wrong piece of legislation “to unite the country… because it is too partisan”. Likewise the infrastructure bill has had no input from the Republicans.

His motives have been questioned - the kindest criticicsm being that he is just thinking of West Virginia not America. Eugene Robertson of the Washington Post argued that Manchin lived in fantasyland, a Baltimore Sun Columnist said, “Joe Manchin isn’t a statesman he is a fool" and others have argued that he was a “cowardly, power - hungry White dude…”.

So how does the Real Joe fit into this?

THE REAL JOE

Of all the presidential aspirants Joe Biden is the one who understands Joe Manchin the best. After all who ran on bipartisanship? Who claims to be everybody’s President? While the Democratic caucus and the pundits would like to ring the West Virginian Senator’s neck Biden has followed through on attempting to obtain consensus on the infrastructure bill with months of meetings with McConnell nominated Republican Senators. Biden for his exercise in futility has been roundly chastised for wasting precious legislative time. However what is more important than having the votes to pass legislation and Jay H. Ell doesn’t mean Republican votes - just fifty Democratic backers? The Biden effort is in sync with his mantra but more to the point puts him on the same page as Joe Manchin. 

The Other Joe has successfully negotiated with moderate Republicans to gain consensus on the Infrastructure bill. The sum for the moment is three hundred billion more than Biden was offered by McConnell's negotiators. Biden's administration has welcomed working with Manchin's bipartisan group. This is an undertaking that will battle to find sixty votes in the Senate regardless of a successful outcome. If it did it would be over Mitch McConnell’s dead body. Several Democrats are against it as well.  So the Real Joe is letting this all play out.

To take one step back it is reported that Biden spoke to the Other Joe to nail his backing for the Covid Relief Bill which was passed as financial legislation requiring just the Democratic votes. Politico provided a most insightful report on their relationship, quoting Manchin who stated, “The president respects the institution so much because he was here and knows it better than everyone else. He does not get involved. I already know where he is. I know the challenge he has and i know the pressure he’s receiving all the time. We’re just trying to find a balance for it.”

Senator Ben Cardin summed up the general feeling among Democrats, “There is a personal relationship between the President and Senator Manchin. I think he can make a difference. He knows that he will have on an impact on Senator Manchin. It would not be effective at this particular moment. But I think he’s waiting for that opportunity.”  

Biden understands that without Joe Manchin who was able to win red West Virginia he would not be in a position to be a transformative President. Likewise Manchin is mindful of the fact that America may not be able to domestically and internationally return to the values that persuaded him to be a Democrat and not a Republican in West Virginia, without his support.

MITCH MCCONNELL

In the final analysis the future of American democracy wrests between the battle between Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden. (Blog: MCCONNELL VERSUS BIDEN AND THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY). The Republican Senate Minority leader believes he has it all under control. He has two battles one within the Republican Party and the other against the Democrats. McConnell who has controlled American politics for over a decade, via the Senate, has no doubt that he can best Biden by stringing him along that there is a hope for the bipartisanship that Manchin insists upon. Simultaneously McConnell reassures his State “Republicans” that there is no way he will cooperate with the Democrats and give Biden the legislative victories he needs to keep the Legislature in the Democratic column. Particularly the State Republican legislators don’t want to see any cooperation on “For the People Act” which will interfere with their efforts at voter suppression. 

The Republican Senate leader is sure that he can best Trump  on his Senate home ground. In return for his meeting the needs of massive donors he can back his Senate nominees with unlimited money. In the last election his Political Action Committee had a record four hundred and seventy - eight million dollars to assist the McConnell candidates. Trump is backing a candidate against Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. The latter has registered her open disgust of the former President. McConnell is backing her in the knowledge that she is unbeatable in her home state. That outcome of that primary contest will be regarded as a key measure of their respective influence in the rag bag Republican Party.

McConnell’s stated objective of obstructing anything and everything will ultimately force Manchin in rethink his position. The Republican grandmaster is cynically taking forgranted the latter’s commitment to bipartisanship, which he, McConnell, has ensured will never happen. Manchin he reckons is his insurance that the Biden agenda will fail. McConnell has to rate Manchin as a complete and utter imbecile, which he is not.  

TRUMP THE PRESIDENT IN WAITING

The Republicans cannot come to terms that they can’t win with Trump and that they can’t win without him. He is slowly but surely becoming less relevant but relevant enough to destroy many Republicans in their Primary elections. In the insane world that the past president lives in thirty percent of the Republicans believe he is the rightful President at the moment. His significance is still felt with the true base and Trumpism per se has not died amongst the strange coalition from neo Nazis to Evangelicals, to those rural and industrial citizens whose needs had been neglected by Washington. However he is almost irrelevant to McConnell as the latter seeks to keep America in the eighteenth century by stymling progress with the filibuster and with a Fundamentalist Judicial Branch. The only sector Mitch answers to is his donor class who don’t want to pay taxes and don’t care if their grandchildren get sun burned. 

Ironically both Biden and McConnell are ad idem at not wanting to provide oxygen for the loudmouth ex President. Their motives are different - the Republican postulating that he will hurt State wide Senate candidates in purple states while the Real Joe wants to run on his own agenda. Last time out it was politic to allow Trump to run against himself while he bunkered down in the basement but now he wants to run on positivity hope and progress. Not that anyone has any choice. Trump will be Trump and he is still the most popular Republican. If he escapes the law he is favorite for the Republican nomination in 2024 and then as everyone knows anything can happen and has. 

WHAT NOW?

The Democrats and their pundits should take one long hard breath and face reality. Joe Manchin is what he is and without him they cannot proceed in the Senate. He so far has a hundred percent voting record on Biden’s agenda. 

Manchin represents the mindset of all the Southern States that the Democrats want to win. It is interesting to note that the two Democratic legislators that have been most empathetic to his position are African Americans from the South, - Reverend Warnock who magically won a Senate seat in Georgia and Jim Clyburn the number three Democrat in the House. As has been written again and again in this blog Clyburn was the one who singly turned the Democratic nomination race to Biden. He correctly advises that the leadership should sit down with Manchin and negotiate with him. Obviously everyone should allow the bipartisan pow wows to run their course in the knowledge that McConnell wants none of it. 

Manchin supports the John Lewis voting legislation which basically restores the 1960’s Voting Rights Act gutted by the Supreme Court. That is a great start. The  For The People voting legislation is a shambles any how. How would Manchin combine the two pieces of legislation? The West Virginian Senator is extremely interested in energy. Biden’s all encompassing Infrastructure legislation includes creating a ton of jobs for the establishment of green energy - just what West Virginia needs as coal becomes more and more obsolete. 

Sooner or later the Real Joe needs to sit down with him……. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

Joe Manchin by playing out the bipartisan spiel will result in  public support and on infrastructure there has been some movement. Joe Biden went through exactly the same exercise on the Infrastructure Bill. McConnell cannot allow any of more of Biden's agenda to happen. Every bit of legislation that passes chalks up a win for Biden.

Nobody can stop Trump stomping through the 2022 election process. It will benefit Biden in spite of his wish for the midterms to be purely about his transformative agenda.

The ultimate objective is to get the Other Joe to dump the filibuster. The crucial voting rights bill is dependent on that. This he may possibly do once it is abundantly clear that it is being abused to thwart the will of the people. The Democrats did after all win the elections and elections have consequences.  “We The People” don’t give two hoots about the arcane conventions of the Senate. The only entity that couldn’t care less than the electorate is Mitch McConnell the Minority leader of the Senate. 

 

MC CONNELL VERSUS BIDEN AND THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN DEMOCRACY

 

The unflappable manipulative Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, is central to returning what purports to be the Republican Party back into power. He is part of the amalgam of the GOP operation who are marching lock step to authoritarianism. While the State Republican legislators are more than doing their bit by passing legislation to suppress the vote, conducting circuses to keep alive the lie that Trump won the 2020 election and Trump hangs onto his diminishing base, McConnell knows the central deciding factor in retaining power devolves around President Biden. He needs to deny Biden’s agenda and render him impotent. This is a tactic he used with great success against Obama. 

This time round McConnell has Biden as an opponent who knows how the Senate works like the back of his hand. Biden needs to pass more of his agenda to ensure control of the legislatures in 2022 but as matters stand the filibuster in the Senate, which entails him obtaining ten Republicans for non financial legislation, is an obstruction. He could bypass the filibuster if he had the full support of his whole Democratic Senate caucus but two members are holding out. A fact that he publicly alluded to for the first time in his speech in Tulsa.

McConnell who functions according to Machiavelli’s playbook has only one guiding principle - power. He has no morality whatsoever. As McConnell is not remotely interested in advancing any agenda with the filibuster he can control or obstruct legislation through the Senate. (In fairness he has a dilettante interest in electing right wing judges). 

 The leader of the GOP in the Senate is the only Republican that uses Trump and not vice versa. He condemned him when it was politic and now he ignores him while relying on him to deliver the base. McConnell has a symbiotic relationship with big money for it is with money he buys loyalty from his caucus. He has wads of cash to support his candidates. It was with that loyalty that the Senate Minority Leader was able to avert what he believed would have made the midterms and even the 2024 elections about Trump rather than about Biden. He averted a bipartisan vote to form a bipartisan commission into investigating the January 6 insurrection in the Capitol.  

The January 6 Commission had looked like an odds on favorite to pass. Thirty - five Republicans had voted for the Commission in the House. In the Senate the Democrats needed ten GOP members to join to avoid the filibuster. Seven votes seemed assured as that number had voted to impeach Trump for instigating the coup. The behind scenes discussion looked as if three more votes could easily materialize. McConnell let it be known that he was against the Commission. That was not enough. So he asked his caucus to vote against the Commission as a “personal favor” to him. That appeal to loyalty worked as the motion only garnered six Republicans and nine were AWOL for the vote. McConnell had started a cult of his own.

BIDEN AND THE DEMOCRATIC STRATEGY Vs TRUMP AND GOP STRATEGY

While the Democrats kicked up all hell at the GOP perfidy they couldn’t have cared too much. Nancy Pelosi can set up a bipartisan commission via a special committee, Trump’s legal woes and his own stupidity will keep him in the news and ironically Biden doesn’t really want Trump front and center either. He wants the elections to be about his agenda and he reckons he can outmaneuver McConnell in the Senate. He already has with the wildly popular Covid Relief Bill which passed with not one Republican vote. 

With regard to the proposed Infrastructure Bill Biden meets with Republican Senators night and day to find common ground. This is what the public want him to do but even more important his two Conservative Democrats in the Senate Joe Manchin and Kyrtsen Sinema need him to be seen to make every effort if they are ever going to ignore the filibuster rule that would allow legislation in the Senate to pass by a  simple majority rather than with sixty votes. Manchin and Sinema took an unprecedented step in relation to the legislation relating to the creating of a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6 insurrection. They put out a statement where they “implored” their Republican colleagues to “find a way forward… to examine “the horrendous events of January 6…”. Their Republican colleagues didn’t oblige but Manchin has indicated that this wasn’t enough to make him change the Senate filibuster rules. But the fact that he and Ms. Sinema issued that plea is being interpreted as serving notice to the Republicans and their own constituents that unless their GOP “colleagues” make a good faith effort to cooperate they will back the removal of the filibuster. Manchin specifically is going to meet an African American delegation including Reverend Sharpton to stress the importance to pass transformative legislation and not to stand by as America loses its democracy.

McConnell did a remarkable job curtailing Obama and has vowed that he has one objective and that is to see to it that Biden get’s nothing done. Biden is ignoring him for the most part and puts out that McConnell is his great friend and they can cut deals. Biden makes it quite clear on every possible occasion that he is everyone’s President. He is an empathetic uniter not a divider. 

Meanwhile the rest of the GOP outside the Senate is out of control. The House is split having axed high powered Liz Cheney who believes the party cannot survive as a totalitarian entity controlled by Trump. Then there are the two revolutionaries Matt Gaetz and Majorie Taylor Greene who are running around the country talking sedition. The former, who is under investigation for sex with underage women and various other crimes appeals to crowds to realize that the Second Amendment was designed for the populace to rid itself of illegal governments while the latter spouts anti semitic mantra. Both claim that Trump is still President. They are just not going to shut up. They are being aided and abetted by convicted and pardoned felon Michael Flynn who addressed a meeting in Dallas where he responded to a questioner that a Mynamar type coup would be in order reinstating Trump as President.

Biden, Pelosi and Schumer are doing a much better job at containing the wings of their party. Biden is executing what he said he was going to do on the election trail. He can’t be smeared. He is a man of the people. The left wing of the Democratic Party are generally very happy with him. The only issue where he ran into criticism was his unconditional support for Israel where he stuck to his guns that they had a right to defend themselves against enemies who deny them the right to exist. His work will be made much more simple now that Bibi Netanyahu will be exiting the scene.

So where do we go from here?

THE CURRENT SITUATION

McConnell is cheered up by four factors. The Midterms traditionally are favorable for the non White House Party. He does not care about the overall picture just the Senate and then just a few constituencies. He will have a big fat war chest to back his candidates. He is unmoved that he might be running against Trump candidates in Primaries. He knows that his candidates will have a much better chance in a General Election. If push come to shove he will pour money into whoever the Republican nominee is. Finally he takes courage from the fact that Joe Manchin, in particular, is favoring filibuster Senate Convention over American Democracy.

Biden’s approval ratings in most polls are now in the high fifties and even sixty percent. He has under promised and over delivered - Covid is under control and the economy is beginning to roll. There is another nightmarish statistic facing the whole Republican Establishment. The generic poll on Democrats versus Republican gives the former a nine point lead. That would translate into a landslide victory in the Senate and the House in 2022. However Biden and company know that this is as a result of his successful Covid operation and could be reversed. Thus Biden too remains focussed on the Senate. He like McConnell knows that nobody cares what the internal workings of the Senate are, they are just interested in results. Biden has to deliver more. He can’t live on the post Covid glow forever. If he can’t get Republican support he has to bypass the filibuster. To do the latter he has to convince Manchin and Sinema that he had no alternative and he has done everything possible to get bipartisan support. He can also point to the fact that he has bipartisan electoral backing.

BIDEN’S LEGISLATION INITIATIVES AND STRATEGY

They are two types of bills Biden wants to pass before November 2022. One lot involves finance the other policy Issues. The former, The Infrastructure Bill and Budget Bill, can probably be passed by reconciliation which only requires fifty - one votes while the latter, The George Floyd Police Reform Act and For The People Act need sixty. The For The People Act really matters as it would negate all the State Voter Suppression Laws that the Republicans have enacted to date. 

Currently the Democrats are making a determined effort at bipartisanship on two pieces of legislation - The Infrastructure Bill where Biden’s initial request was for nearly two and a half trillion dollars while the Republicans countered with about seven hundred billion and The George Floyd Police Reform Bill where bipartisan negotiations are taking place between legislators. The bona fides of both Biden and Republicans are really going to tell in the outcome of the indaba on the Infrastructure Bill. Here Biden is making a real effort to find common ground meeting with Republican Senators. The reason he wants this vast sum of money is to include a host of programs not normally associated with infrastructure, such as child care. So far the Republicans have upped their offer to a trillion and Biden has come down to one trillion seven hundred billion!. Biden could ram this through as a budget bill under reconciliation but is making the effort. If he compromises he will show that bipartisanship can work. If he doesn’t he can argue he tried. 

Jay H. Ell feels Biden is going to a do a deal to make a point. If he cuts a deal it might also establish his bona fides with his two hold outs especially if the Republicans won’t come together on The Police Reform Act. Where he needs Manchin and Sinema desperately to axe the filibuster will be on the Voting Rights Bill as the Republican State efforts threaten America’s very democracy, not to mention the Democratic Senate and House majorities. Biden incidentally is proposing an over six trillion budget where, he is sure to include some of the projects that could be axed in the infrastructure deal. This bill will probably be passed by reconciliation and only need fifty - one votes.

Whichever way this is viewed every one of these pieces of legislation have overwhelming public support including The For The People voting rights bill. Biden has worked the Senate for decades. He can read a caucus and knows what every member needs to justify changing his or her mind. Neither Manchin or Sinema have a desire to thwart the President. They just have to have a rationale to present to their conservative electorates for their decisions. They can be reassured that the electorate as a whole don’t give two hoots about the arcane rules and conventions of the Senate. McConnell has illustrated this again and again. It didn’t move the electorate one point when he defied convention by refusing to allow Obama’s Supreme Court nominee a hearing over a year before an election then rushed through Trump’s choice two months before the 2020 election. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Republican Party have abandoned democracy in favor of attaining power. Different constituencies are using different authoritarian strategies to effect this. The State Legislators are instituting voter suppression and enshrining the right to change an election result certified by the electoral officials. The Federal legislators are involved in a cover up of Trump’s insurrection. Trump’s base half of whom still believe he is President will go to the ends of the earth or at least to the Capitol to reinstate him in the WhiteHouse. There are a group that are even prepared to float a coup and are skating on very thin ice. 

Ground zero of the fight for democracy is the Senate where Biden is pitted against his old nemesis Mitch McConnell. Both the President’s proposed legislation and the 2022 midterms are crucial in deciding which way the American cookie will crumble. Central to the Senate fortunes are two Democrats who were elected from States that Trump has won in the past. They have to balance how they proceed without their destroying Democrats ability to retain and win Senate seats in their State. Jay H. Ell would tell them to put democracy first and worry about future elections later. The situation is very serious. If they don’t act they won’t have an election to fight. An op-ed piece in the New York Times pointed to the monumental compromises that were made in Israel to dump Bibi Netanyahu for the sake of the country. It surely isn’t too much for two party Democrats to ignore a fossilized law which in fact thwarts the will of the electorate to save America from Trump. 

On Memorial Day President Biden warned that American democracy is in the balance. He wasn’t kidding. But just like Mary Todd Lincoln told Abe that if he wanted slavery to be abolished he needed to speak to the waverers himself, Jill Biden needs to whisper in Joe's ear, "Talk to them yourself".