Israeli politics and all that is happening in Israel devolves around their populist right wing leader Bibi Netanyahu. The central issue in the recent election and the previous three was whether or not Benjamin Netanyahu, head of the right wing Likud Party and the longest serving Prime Minister in Israel’ s seventy odd year history, should remain as Prime Minister. Netanyahu’s situation bears uncanny resemblances to his long time friend Donald Trump who recently was ousted. While Trump has lost his electoral battle to escape legal jeopardy the Israeli Prime Minister is fighting for his life to cobble together a coalition following an election that for the fourth time failed to give him a clear cut win. Meanwhile his trial on corruption has already begun.
THE CURRENT POLITICS FOLLOWING THE MARCH 2021 ELECTION
The Israelis have just completed their fourth election in two years which like the other three has resulted in deadlock. No less than thirteen parties gained seats in the 2021 election. At present the only topics close to consensus is that Netanyahu must go or he must stay. The coalition that could oust him would have to include right wing factions that ran in the latest election on the platform that Netanyahu must go. Netanyahu to stay in office would have to include Arab representatives of the Knesset as well as a right wing fringe that has its roots in a rare phenomenon in modern Israel, home grown Jewish terrorism.
Following the election President Rivlin reluctantly called on Netanyahu to form a Government, claiming that under Bibi’s legal circumstances that it was a morally difficult decision. It seems highly unlikely that the current Prime Minister will garner sixty - one votes in the one hundred and twenty member Knesset with his trial on corruption trial having just started. Netanyahu however is a survivor. He also like his mentor, Trump, will stop at nothing to retain power. His future literally hangs in the balance. As the unsavory evidence of his corruption is ringing through Israel he has twenty - eight days to form a Government. For Bibi it is duck or no dinner. He hopes to be reelected and persuade the Knesset to give him immunity. That is a long long shot. Otherwise he faces a prison term.
For the first time in fifty years the Arab parties have shown interest in forming part of a government. As matters stand it is almost impossible for a government to be formed without them. The fact that some of their Knesset members have committed themselves to the mission of the State of Israel represents a seismic shift in the dynamic of Israeli politics.
It is also the first time in history that unashamed racists have coalesced, at Bibi Netanyahu’s behest to form a unified party, the Religious Zionists. Bezalel Smotrich leader of this extreme right wing group, who has stated that he would not want his wife to deliver a baby next to an Arab, threatened an Arab member of the Knesset that he would throw him out of the country if he didn’t accept that all the land belonged to the Jews. Smotrich’s six man party are crucial to Netanyahu being reelected as Premier.
THE THREE MAIN CONTENDERS FOR PREMIERSHIP - NETANYAHU, LAPID, AND BENNETT
Netanyahu, highly articulate and educated in America is a populist and like Trump has that invincible look about him. The only difference with regard to the law is Bibi is under indictment already and his trial has already started. Another variable is that Bibi is bright. Netanyahu is as desperate as Trump was to remain as Head even though the Israeli legal system does not afford him nearly as much protection as the Presidency did Trump.
If Netanyahu called it quits his Right wing Likud Party would have less of a problem in forming a Government as that would pave the way to amalgamate the other right wing parties headed by Naftali Bennett and New Hope’s Gideon Sa’ar who despise Netanyahu. (Ditching Bibi by Likud is as unlikely as the Republican Party abandoning Trump). However, in spite of his electoral stance, Bennett is still in conversation with Netanyahu. Even if the old master pulls a Bennett rabbit out of the hat he would still not have the sixty - one seats needed to govern. There is no way Sa’ar will join a BiBi government as he is the reason that he defected from Likud and took five other members with him. Bibi will have to have the support of one of the Arab coalitions. His problem in that regard is that the Religious Zionist Party would refuse to be a part of the Government and that again may leave Netanyahu short. Interestingly the most religious of the thirteen Knesset parties, United Torah Judaism’s spiritual leader, ninety three year old Rabbi Kanievsky, stated he would rather form a coalition with religious Arabs than left wing secular parties.
If Bibi’s rival, Yair Lapid, head of the Yesh Atid party ultimately reaches the coveted sixty - one seats the change to Israeli politics could be as transformative as Biden’s election in the USA. Yesh Atid is a center right party. Lapid’s background is in television and he also exudes charisma. He has some credibility as he has never been seduced into a Netanyahu coalition as so many in the opposition parties have.
The uncommitted variables at the moment are Bennett, who vowed never to back Bibi again and the two Arab parties. As matters stand at the moment a few of the latter’s ten members are poised but far from committed for the first time in history to become part of an Israeli Government. Netanyahu has been courting them vigorously for his 2021 coalition having thrown dog whistles of racism in the last election, less than a year ago, with the allegation that that his opposition were herding them to the polls. Lapid would need Bennett in addition to members of the Arab lists to back him.
Finally there is Bennett who split off from Bibi’s coalition who fancies himself as the next Prime Minister. He is right wing but extremely opposed to the influence that Netanyahu has afforded the religious parties. A Bennett/Lapid led coalition is probably the likeliest outcome if Netanyahu fails to create a Government. The fact that this is a serious option shows a bipartisan desire to axe Netanyahu once and for all. They would probably alternate the Premiership with Bennett going first.
Not surprisingly the most predicted out come of all of this is gridlock and a fifth election.
THE ARAB PARTIES IN ISRAEL
The Arabs in Israel, who represent twenty percent of the population, are as divided in priorities as are their Israeli counterparts. In the last Knesset they were “united” in The Joint List and had fifteen members. This time round they split into two groups which combined left them with only ten representatives, The more left Joint List, (JL), gained six seats where as the conservative religious United Arab List, (UAL), four members. The UAL is lead by a shrewd Islamist Mansour Abbas who rocked the Israeli public, speaking in Hebrew, with his post election announcement:
“I Mansour Abbas, a member of the Islamic Movement, an Arab and a proud Muslim, extends my hand … tolerate an opportunity for a shared life, in the holy and blessed land of the three religions and both peoples. I carry a prayer of hope and the search of hope based on mutual respect and genuine equity. What we have in common is greater than what divides us”.
Abbas could carry one or two of his group to form a government with either Bibi or Lapid. In addition should Bennett decide to join Netanyahu, that would be enough to extend the current Prime Minister’s fourteen year reign. But the Religious Zionists could never live with that option.
The Joint List, (JL), which is far more radical, left wing and secular than the newly formed UAL, have had discussions with Lapid. The JL were represented by the leader Atman Odeh and Ahmed Tibi. They stated that they would be open to join a Lapid Government if he received a commitment from fifty - five Members of the Knesset, However if Lapid joined right winger Bennett, Odeh has indicated he would not be interested. Odeh’s demands included re examining The Jewish State Law, which declares Israel a Jewish State ignoring the non Jewish population, support in eliminating organized community crime, more support for Arab municipalities and the elimination of so called “illegal” Arab construction. Members of the JL created a ruckus when some of them included a desire to end the occupation of the West Bank in the Knesset oath taking ceremony.
Whichever way this is viewed there is an interest by the Arab representatives to get involved. They have to interpret that the the thirty three percent drop of support in the recent election as a growing frustration by their constituents that they are getting nothing done, They stand to lose even more support if there is a fifth election. If enough of them back a Lapid/Bennett coalition it will go a long way in solving Israel’s internal strife.
THE RELIGIOUS PARTIES
The two religious ultra orthodox parties Shas and the United Torah Judaism won sixteen seats between them. Secular Netanyahu much like secular Trump has lined them irrevocably on his side. Much of the antagonism towards the longstanding Premier is that he has paid a high price for the religious backing. He has subsidized their schools and granted them concession after concession. A key grievance is the fact that after seventy years of the State of Israel the ultra orthodox or Haredi are objecting to serve in the army even after a Supreme Court ruling that it was “unconstitutional” to exempt them. Needless to say Bibi has fought for them and backed them to the hilt. Recently the Government admitted that they had inflated the number that had joined. The other major issue that sticks in the craw is that only fifty percent of the Haredi men earn a living. The rest as students of the Torah are subsidized.
According to Dan Ben - David of the Shoresh Institution for Socioeconomic Research in Israel nearly half the Israeli children don’t receive an adequate education, with no compulsory, math, science and computers. The largest group of the latter are the children of the Haredi who are by far the fastest growing population, the average family having seven children. Ben - David claimed that this was an existential issue and that a future government should implement constitutional and other changes to force the Haredi to play by the same rules. This would prevent a future government mortgaging the country for short term political gain, he argues.
The Religious Zionist party, which is way out right wing with direct connections to Meyer Kahn, Israel’s modern day infamous terrorist, needs no coercion to back Netanyahu. However their presence makes it almost impossible for Netanyahu to obtain any Arab support.
MODERN DAY ISRAEL
The internal political strife belies the fact that Israel is in a more powerful position politically and economically than it has ever been. They formed political alliances with the Sunni Arab countries which circumstance was midwifed through their common opposition to Shia Iran. This alliance opens up trade possibilities particularly in technology where Israel is second only to America in start ups. The change in alliance of the oil rich neighbors in addition to Egypt and Jordan have helped to take external pressure off their position on the Palestinian territories. The world in general has grown tired of the impasse now tending to apportion as much blame to the Palestinians as they do to the State of Israel
The health care system is such that they had the infrastructure to lead the world in vaccinations against Covid. Their unique desalination program provides water for the region and is a model for the world. In addition, again notwithstanding some disgraceful prejudice towards the indigenous Arabs, they do represent the only democracy in the Middle East with universal franchise, (and no gerrymandering), and a highly independent judiciary. The country has responded remarkably to the influx of Jewish immigration following persecution or prejudice from every continent in the world. The greatest challenge was to absorb and integrate close on a million Russian jews following glasnost.
THE FUTURE
None of Israel’s successes take away the urgency of sorting out their internal political problems. A country cannot survive unless it has a common mission. Currently according to President Rivlin there are just four power blocks. Like America, Israel’s democratic constitution has been threatened by a powerful cult leader.
While Iran threatens to wipe Israel off the face of the earth that is not going to happen with the current line up against the theocracy. The problem that is screaming to be solved is the relationship between Israel and the Palestinians territories. The need for the Palestinians to get their act together is even more urgent than the Israelis. Both sides have to come to terms that neither is just going to go away. The State of Israel is a legal fact. Jews in the diaspora who disapprove of the government recognize that if they are threatened they have a place to go to. In their conscious and their subconscious is the knowledge of the outcome of the 1938 Evian Conference when twenty - two countries gathered together to face the fact that the Jews were under life or death pressure from Germany. They all concluded that they could not take on any additional immigration.
The Palestinians don’t want to go anywhere else and in any case no one would take them en masse. All those neat resolutions of support and BDS and other counter productive solutions will not give the Palestinians a roof over their heads. The neighboring countries who used them in the past as a battering ram against Israel in countless attacks are not ready to open their borders. The Palestinians are being used again by Iran through Hamas to wipe Israel off the map. Efforts would be best directed at getting both sides to get their acts together and then face reality. Israel would be in a very powerful position if it had a unified government of all its peoples to effect a two party solution.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Unless Israel moves away from the country being all about Benjamin Netanyahu it will not solve its internal problems. Netanyahu has shrewdly aligned religious groups on his side which give him twenty - two Knesset members. With his own Likud Party having thirty that totals fifty - two of the sixty -one he needs to continue. To beat him there has to be a coalition of all the other parties left and right. For the first time in fifty years the ten Arab Knesset members have shown an interest in forming part of the Government.
With Israel’s position having been stabilized in the Middle East once the internal problems are sorted out and possibly with Arab representation in the Government, the two State solution can be faced and translated into reality. Somebody should whisper in the ear of Netanyahu’s party that if they are finding difficulty to assimilate the relatively small indigenous population, who have full rights, that annexing the territories whose peoples will have no rights, is not only immoral but would land the country in the mess apartheid brought upon South Africa.
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