Recent political events including the victory of the Presidency by Joseph Biden, the subsequent attempts at reversing the electoral decision by legal and extra legal methods, the instigation of an insurrection by the defeated President, Donald Trump, resulting in his subsequent impeachment by the House of Representatives have precipitated an ever increasing division in the Republican Party which threatens to split the Party. The conflict is being played out by proxy by a number of personalities. Trump who demands loyalty to himself rather than the Party or Country is around whom this dispute is centered. Central to the conflict is a freshman Congresswoman Majorie Taylor Greene who is associated with Q,Anon which traffics in conspiracy theories and Liz Cheney number three Republican in the House, a right of center Republican traditionalist. Important bit players include, Mitch McConnell, now Minority Republican leader of the House, Nancy Pelosi Democratic Speaker of the House and Kevin McCarthy, Minority Republican leader of the House of Representatives.
HOW THE FUTURE OF THE GOP IS BEING PLAYED OUT
For the moment the action revolves around the Congresswoman Ms. Greene who has been in the House of Representatives for four weeks. She has been responsible for perpetuating the most outlandish positions including the assassination of Ms.Pelosi and the fact that the California fires were started by lasers directed by Jews. Most importantly she claims that Trump won the election. She has the support of Trump who regards her as a rising star. To amplify her position in that regard she categorically proclaimed recently that the Republican Party better get used to the fact that it is Trump’s Party.
Not surprisingly she has not been censored by the politically ambitious Republican House leader Kevin McCarthy or the Republican caucus. McCarthy did issue a belated statement condemning her views but would not axe her from her committees. What really rankles is that she is on the Education Committee because she claims that the two major school slaughters at Sandy Hook and Parkwood were faked and never happened. McConnell has called for those with lunatic ideas, quoting some of Greene’s positions, to be cut out of the Party as they are a cancer. Nancy Pelosi moved that she be removed from her committee positions.. Greene had tweeted the day before that she would never apologize however she did however tell the House that she regretted what had happened and blamed social media for her exposure to these viewpoints. She held a defiant press conference the main message being that those Republicans who voted for her to be stripped of her committee appointments were traitors. They had acted against Trump who would primary them and their careers would be finished.
Liz Cheney a doyen of the Republican Conservative Party was vigorously attacked by several Republican House legislators for voting for the impeachment of Trump. Unlike Greene, Cheney had to sustain the indignity of a secret ballot in the Republican caucus to maintain her positions. She won this contest by one hundred and forty - five to sixty - one votes. She is supported by McConnell and needless to say she has infuriated Trump. McCarthy hoping to keep the factions the two represent in the party, issued a statement that supported her. He claimed that the Republican Party has a very wide tent.
The impeachment outcome which initially appeared a done deal as there was minimal support for Trump’s conviction takes on a different possible outcome now since McConnell intervened in the proxy fight in the House by advocating expulsion from the party for Greene and strong support for Cheney. If McConnell lets Trump escape conviction without significant Republicans opposing him, Trump would become all powerful within the party. He will be free to stand again and McConnell could be the one not Trump forming the new Party.
It will not be that easy for the Senate Republicans to hide behind a dubious constitutional interpretation to let Trump off the hook. This especially as his response to the carefully, persuasively and meticulously constructed Democratic brief is a pitiful legal document written by the only two lawyers who were prepared to represent him at the last minute. The fact that the Don has refused to testify himself will not exactly help Then there will be video presented which many of the audience out there will be watching for the first time as a connected whole pointing to Trump’s guilt. An audience that Is far more interested in the facts than they are in some arcane legal argument will increase the number calling for Trump’s ouster.
Under these circumstances McConnell must try and whip up support if he would like the Republican Party as he knows it to survive.
Assessing the results of the House votes and support it appears where the ballot is secret the House Delegates are in favor of the Cheney Republican Party versus the Greene party. They fear Trump because of his ability to nobble them in the Primary. However Trump's position has weakened markedly since his electoral loss, the Georgian Senate races and the insurrection. All this adds up to McConnell not giving Trump a pass in the impeachment trial.
HOW IT ALL WORKS. AND HOW TRUMP HIJACKED THE PARTY IN 2016
In a democracy in order to gain power a party has to form coalitions of supporters. Especially in a two party system this can become a challenging task with all the varying constituencies with all their diverse beliefs, economic circumstances, attitudes and prejudices. The fact that the two main parties in the USA were not doing a very good job of creating wide tents has been reflected in the low voter turnouts in elections.
The voter turn out in Presidential elections since 1972 has been round about fifty percent excepting for 2008 where it was fifty - seven percent. (Obama’s first term). However Donald Trump created a revolution and by 2020 the percentage participation was sixty - two percent. This he did by adding to the traditional Republican following by addressing the needs of a group who had been ignored by the politicians of both parties. However additional key constituencies that he appealed to were the white supremacists, militia groups and groups that had been considered on the lunatic fringe - a constituency that had not participated in previous elections. Not only had the internet welded them into sizable bodies Trump consolidated them into one entity with him as their leader, This crowd besides embracing white supremacy and violence as a means to their ends also were added to Trump’s support of those whose needs had been ignored by the Washington elites. In addition the majority of the Republicans, especially the Evangelicals voted for Trump widening the Republican tent enough to win the Electoral College albeit losing the popular vote by three million.
The upshot of Trump’s entry into the Republican fraternity was it revived it from its slow death march by creating new constituencies so that it could continue to survive with the changing demographics. However within four short years it sowed the seeds of its own destruction as their newest best friends, the violent white supremacists gained more and more of a stronghold of the GOP’s base and lead by Trump ignored the basic tenets of democracy. This resulted in a section of the Republican Party abandoning him, his racism mobilized African Americans, Republican suburbanites switched loyalties and his failure to deliver on promises saw Biden winning back Democrats that had voted for Trump in 2016. His coalition had shrunk, However he had brought into the political arena the white supremacists who were now the most vocal component of Trump’s coalition. So while he could never regain a majority in the whole electorate and didn’t even have the support of the majority of the Republican Party as it is now constituted, he was still the most powerful factor in it.
HOW THE COOKIE CRUMBLES FROM NOW ON
The traditional GOP is on its heels. Cheney all be it she survived did not get a free pass like Greene did. In addition ten Senate Republicans are talking to Biden and he is listening. Although POTUS 46 remains fixed on a broad Covid relief bill he is open to suggestions as to modifications on how the money is spent. This keeps his approval rating near sixty percent and the backing for his Covid solution near the seventy percent. All this must be making the suburban Republicans even more comfortable with Biden’s Democratic Party and with Greene and the insurrection ads already hitting the screens that constituency may permanently remain in the Democratic camp. Also the Political Action Committees formed by former Republicans are still at it already working on the 2022 elections. The founder of the Lincoln Project Steve Schmidt, McCain’s former campaign manager, said he has become a one issue man - democracy is his issue and has joined the Democratic party, regardless of his disagreement with them on most other policies.
So can McConnell still stand around “Waiting for Godot”. If he wants the Republican Party to rebuild itself he better “cut out the cancer” by leading a big section of Senators to convict Trump. It is no use trying to keep the Party together. At the moment Trump gets off scot free then all those not loyal to Trump, like Cheney, will be primaried. Does McConnell want the battle there. If he can cut out the cancer now the ‘lunatics” forming a third party will get nowhere. One thing is for certain Greene and company will not hang around if Trump will be axed, The militias may get a bit tense but their leadership are all awaiting trial.
The polling for the Republican dramatis personae involved in the “Stop the Steal” movement suck even though several are not all that well known. In Ms. Greene's case, the cause celebre of the legislative controversy only fifty percent were prepared to offer an opinion as to her acceptability of whom only fifteen percent approve and thirty - seven percent disapprove, whereas twenty - seven percent had a favorable opinion of Liz Cheney and thirty - one percent unfavorable.
AT THE END OF THE DAY - MCCONNELL ACT NOW
So McConnell you got your conservative judges and your lower taxes, cut your losses and axe Trump. It is obvious that the legislative traditionalist Republican Party outnumber the Trumpets as illustrated by the Cheney vote in the House. As for the Senate other than for a few cult members there is not much love lost for POTUS 45.
The question is whether the enabling of Trump will continue by the Republican Senators who supposedly believe that keeping him alive and well, regardless of the facts, is best for their party. It would be too much to ask that they consider the destruction he does to the country as well. McConnell et al sold out in impeachment one, One rarely gets a second chance to be on the right side of history……
The history of white supremacists in America is as old as the country but they have not triumphed yet. From the slave owners, to the Jim Crows, the John Birch Society… their belief has always been that the non whites were not real citizens. After their defeat in the sixties by the Civil Rights Movement gradually they have once again introduced voter suppression laws and finally the remnants of the extremists have been brought together by Donald Trump. Do the Republican Party really want to provide a home, an infrastructure even a legitimacy to the descendants of the Confederacy? A vote to convict their leader will weaken this latest effort.
Great post Jay. H. Ell.
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