America has just experienced its worst violent factional conflict since the Civil War.The January 6, 2021 insurrection to overthrow the legitimate government was led by the defeated and outgoing President. The latter rather than being repudiated by his own party was not convicted of the seditious act even though there was graphic irrefutable video evidence as to his guilt. Fifty - five percent of Americans believe he was guilty as charged and sixty - eight percent agree that he did nothing to stop the violence - either or both the latter should have necessitated a guilty finding. The reasons behind the majority of Republican Senators’ behavior are varied and complex. To a large extent they are a reflection of the battle for control of the GOP between Trump and Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell.
The trial exacerbated the tensions of this traumatic period in the country which is in the throes of a pandemic that has killed close on half a million people and engendered a massive economic crisis. In addition America and the world is experiencing a market revolution which rivals the industrial revolution resulting in a loss of jobs and income of swathes of the population. Added to that uncertainty there is massive dislocation of populations who are risking their lives to find sanctuary in richer and safer countries including America. There is also a widespread loss of trust with traditional government and many Western Countries have seen their democracies challenged by authoritarian populists. America again is no exception. To add to American woes the Southern States particularly,Texas, as a result of freezing weather, has seen an almost total collapse of its infrastructure.
The newly elected President Biden faces many challenges both political and policy wise as he enters his Presidency as democracy teeters on the brink.
THE SHRINKING REPUBLIC PARTY AND TRUMP’S DOMINANCE OVER IT
Consider these two statistics: Seventy - five percent of Republicans want to see former President Trump play a prominent role in politics versus thirty - four percent of all Americans. Nearly two thirds of the population believe he should play no role at all. Sixty percent of the Republicans want a third party which is indicative of the uncertainty as to the direction their party may take.
It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that the Republican Party is shrinking and those remaining are, in the main, supportive of Trump. Nevertheless the majority of the GOP seem unhappy at the direction they perceive the Party is going. There is no doubt that Trump generally speaking is highly unpopular amongst the US citizens and his position has worsened since January 6 and the follow up Senate trial. His approval rate is now in the thirty percent plus range never ever having reached more than forty - five percent.
Although the GOP is shrinking, by gerrymandering voter constituencies, using voter suppression tactics and the fact that the original constitution loaded power in favor of the underpopulated areas which are predominately Republican, they remain competitive in the legislature. Thus the current status where Biden won the election by seven million votes is that he has only slim majorities in the House and Senate making the 2022 mid term elections the most crucial in decades. It will also test the future of the Trump faction in the Republican Party and the direction American politics is taking with Biden at the helm.
BIDEN’S DILEMMA AND HISTORY
With Biden’s approval rate over a record sixty - percent and disapproval rate at thirty five percent should he give a damn about the bipartisan approach he touted? It certainly was one of the factors responsible for gaining the Presidency by persuading swing votes in key states to provide him an electoral college victory in an election process that is hopelessly distorted in favor of the Republican minority.
Central to the bipartisan split is the issue as to who is an American - whites only or all Americans. However as illustrated by the insurrection, the aspiration of the Declaration of Independence that “All men being created equal” has not yet been fulfilled. Should Biden just recognize that he is dealing with a problem that has existed since the inception of the Republic and defies resolution?.
The greatest proponent of a united America, Abe Lincoln, who after a civil war to free those enslaved has set the belief of hope, reconciliation and the fulfillment of equality among all citizens and the control of the government by “We the people”. There is no hint of accountability. It is all kumbaya. Consider his second inaugural after that bitterly fought war,:
“With malice toward none; with charity for all; with firmness in the right, as God give us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in; to bind the nation’s wounds; to care for him, who shall have borne the battle, and for his widow, and his orphan…”
Lincoln just wanted to move on. However the resentment of the segregationists lingered. To a significant extent the arc of history has bent more and more to the Founders’ desire. However each step forward has been encountered by fierce attempts to keep the country under white male control. After each battle there has been the Lincoln approach that now that the fight has been won the other side will accept the outcome. There has never been appropriate accountability or an assessment of those who simply joined the supremacists as a hope it would be an answer to grievances.
Biden must not interfere with any accountability, even of Trump, and only attempt to unite with those who have just joined with Trump out of desperation to have their grievances met. One issue seems certain the wheels of Justice must be allowed to grind on. Gerald Ford did not succeed in “Healing the Nation” by pardoning Nixon. Biden will be under massive pressure to do so especially by the legislative Republicans who will argue that this will unite the country.That is not what history has shown.
BIDEN AFTER THE SENATE TRIAL
Biden ran on three central themes which he juxtaposed with an amoral and incompetent Trump: An aspirational one with slogans such as, “Battle for the soul of the nation”, which he linked to the Charlottesville riots which embraced white supremacy and violence claiming that was the spur that decided him to run. “Our Best days lie ahead, Build Back Better and Unite for a Better America”, were some of the others.
A pragmatic approach with the issues foremost troubling Americans - Covid, the economy, immigration, racial justice, infrastructure, health for all, climate change and job creation being central:
Being a center candidate who understood everyone’s problems and being able to work in a bipartisan manner and unite the country.
From the get go Biden began working on his massive Covid relief package. He called Republicans to discuss it and in the legislature he was prepared to accept amendments but having gone through all the motions he let it be known - come hell or high water - that he would pass it with only Democratic votes if necessary. His Press Secretary made it quite clear that when he claimed to be everyone’s President, even those who didn’t vote for him, this is part of what he meant, These policy decisions were for all Americans. He consulted the Governors and Mayors of both parties and they all wanted it as do the majority of Americans.
The big issue for Biden is that although he can get his Covid relief through without ten Republicans but, in the Senate, other priorities would need them, as otherwise the Democrats could be subject to the filibuster. What will he do on issues such as a Bill to eliminate voter suppression and one on police reform, for example? Dispense with the filibuster? Although the center in 2020 tipped the balance it was built on the solid foundation of a massive African American turn out. He owes it to them to remove the voter suppression that has progressively returned since the introduction of the Civil Rights in the 1960’s. How much longer will it take for the four year Civil War of 1861 to finally be resolved?
Biden for the moment is appealing and conversing with all and sundry maintaining a positive posture with his empathetic approach and obvious mastery of the administration of the country.
THE REPUBLICANS IRRECONCILABLE SPLIT- TRUMP V MCCONNELL
There are now two irreconcilable factions of the GOP, Trump and his family - who Lindsey Graham and Majorie Taylor Greene have declared the saviors and the Mitch McConnell faction. McConnell has called upon the justice system to sort out Trump and stated that those with “lunatic ideas” should be thrown out of the party. However the legislative Republicans who by and large quietly support the McConnell position are not in control of the State and Local party hierarchy because those who aspire to these positions are usually the most rabid part of the base. Already some of those Republicans who voted to impeach or convict have been censored by the local or state bodies.
Trump for his part is focussed on getting revenge on these legislators - that is his agenda for the moment! Lest there be any doubt that the rift between Trump and McConnell is irreconcilable Trump issued a lengthy statement smearing McConnell and his family and labelling the Senate leader a political hack. McConnell countered by stating he will support only the candidates that have a chance of winning in 2022 not any that are endorsed by any “particular individual.” Lindsey Graham has pleaded with the two parties to call it quits and claimed that without Trump the Republican Party is doomed, Likewise he publicly reminded Trump how important McConnell was for the Republicans’ legislative agenda. He is off to Mar A Lago again.
There is going to be a monumental tussle in the Republican primaries in the 2022 mid term elections. There will be McConnell with a ton of money versus Trump who has a fat bounty himself but not nearly enough to fund a whole campaign. McConnell by letting Trump loose has reassured the big donors to open their checkbooks as he can nobble Biden via the Senate. If Trump candidates win in the Primaries, and they have to start out favorites, their chances of succeeding in the 2022 midterms will be low and the Democrats will increase their majority. McConnell’s nightmare will have become a reality.
What will be a fascinating contest is the North Carolina Senate race which the Republicans hold and daughter in law Laura Trump is giving a hard look at. She has been called the future of the Republican Party by Lindsey Graham who is Trump’s number two man. (Up to time of going into print that is).
There is one issue the Republican factions agree upon as their party becomes narrower and narrower - voter suppression and gerrymandering which helps even up the tussle.
REPUBLICAN COALITION AND IMPONDERABLES
The Trump Republican coalition is made up of an ever decreasing number of the true believers in fiscal conservatism and small government, evangelicals, the militia and white supremacist types and a large body of disaffected white male voters who feel ignored by the original Republicans who only looked after the rich and the Democrats who are now the party of the minorities, women, LGBT group and intellectual elites. The disaffected are a sizable group who have been impacted by the economic change and feel victimized. There are also those in rural areas that have become depopulated and whose economies have taken a hit. On top of that they feel that it is the Whites that are victimized by the system. Finally there are the urban and suburbanites some of whom split their votes between Trump and the legislative candidates in 2020 making the Republicans competitive in the Legislature.
Well there is no way that the Republican elites are going to once again take a chance on Trump or any of his candidates. The white women in the suburbs and urban areas will have been finally shaken out of their complacency by January 6. The militia and white supremacist types will start lumping him in with the rest when their compatriots, mainly leaders face trial. They will be reminded that Trump simply used them - selling out big time by calling for their prosecution. Probably the biggest component, the Evangelicals - the only group that got what they wanted, (they weren’t much interested in the wall), three Supreme Court Judges and the full throat backing of Israel, - will want to know what Mike Pence will have to say. Pence is the one who gave credence to Trump’s whole Damascus experience on abortion family values and the rest. Pence is a highly respected Evangelical himself.The story leaked thus far is that he too is furious with Trump who sent out a lynch mob to get him.
The swing group the “victims” and the rural group who already have begun to abandon him as the Biden and Georgia elections indicated are definitely a constituency that Biden can win over especially if he gets these former blue collar workers good paying jobs which could even extend into rural areas in the fields of infrastructure and climate change.
There is no hope for the GOP to make up for this by the youth vote which is now the largest demographic sector. The percentages that are pro Democrat and are anti Trump are increasing by the day.
THE BIDEN CHOICE
For Biden to settle the racial justice system, the job and infrastructure problem and the immigration mess he will have to decide on whether to implement the nuclear option and do away with the filibuster in the Senate that mandates that sixty votes are needed on nearly all legislation. Ironically it only needs fifty - one votes to throw it out. For the country to move forward and get out of its retrogressive rut of the last half century Biden has got to do what he has to do. He then may face a destructive Supreme Court which will just have to gain a non partisan complexion. The GOP may not like him breaking with tradition but it is all legal. If you don’t believe Jay H. Ell ask Mitch McConnell.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The Republican traditionalists lost their chance by not convicting Trump which virtually every constitutional lawyer stated they could and all the facts pointed to a guilty verdict. Now they are the ones that might have to start a new party, not Trump. Trump need not bother to form “The Patriot Party”, the Republican Party is about to change its name.
2022 and 2024 will determine if Biden is just a blip in the Trump revolution or that Trump was the aberration in the American story. Besides all the additional voter suppression activities that certain states are introducing, traditionally midterms favor the Party that has not the WhiteHouse.
Win or lose Trump will be in the public eye for the duration even if it is only as a defendant in an ever growing myriad of litigation, criminal or civil. To illustrate that this equality struggle is one that wasn’t resolved with the Civil War, Trump is being sued under an 1871 Law that was meant to control the KKK from interfering with any person holding office. It didn’t work then and apparently doesn’t work now.
Meanwhile Biden has rejoined the world. The world is obviously wary as to whether the change in America is for real and for at least eight years. Trump’s wrecking ball legacy lives on……
If you want to see who isn’t in at the right wing freak show of the Conservative Action Party Conference just note the list of those not invited to speak - McConnell, McCarthy, Cheney, Romney and Haley while the keynote address will be given by Trump himself and loyal members of his cabinet are all featured. For the record Mike Pence refused an invitation.
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