TRUMP’S POPULISM ENSHRINED AS GOP POLICY AT CONFERENCE

 

America’s party fight is no longer within the framework of democracy. The Republican Party is the party of Trump which embraces populism aka Trumpism. The latter is totalitarianism acting ostensibly within a democratic framework, placing inordinate power in the President. The Conservative Political Action Committee’s, (CPAC), which claims to have the largest Conservative membership in the world and whose annual conference looks to create future GOP policy has embraced Trumpism with all its lumps and warts. The conference also sanctioned Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party.

The Conference’s direction was reflected in its agenda and speakers. They even wheeled around a bigger than life golden statue of Trump which was a centerpiece of the arena. In the crammed three day conference, which examined the world according to Trump did not even include one ten minute segment on the two big crises the country is facing, The Covid crisis which has seen the death of over five hundred thousand Americans and devastated the economy and the frontal attack on democracy itself on the Capitol, for which McConnell, the de facto head of what was the Republican Party placed the blame on Trump. The attitude to the Covid epidemic was reflected in the prolonged boos the injunction to wear masks received.

CPAC devoted a whole chunk of its annual get together accepting the mantra that Trump won the election. They effected this through a series entitled, “Protect the Elections”. All the stars of the Trump cult from SenatorTed Cruz to Congressman Jim Jordan featured. The congress addressed issues from a “Trumpist” or “populist” perspective as the choice of speakers indicated. The closing address of The Congress will be given by “The Leader,”, Donald Trump, which will be on the future of the Republican Party as well as attacking Joe Biden - particularly his amnesty and border policies. Needless to say there are no speakers of the “old” GOP at the CPAP annual conference. Never has a President who has just lost an election been invited to point the direction the Party should go in the future. But with Trump there is never a never.

TRUMPISM = POPULISM = THE REPUBLICAN PARTY

The fight between the Romney and Trump factions for control of the GOP is over. They represent two different worlds. Trump’s growth of influence is in no small measure due to the GOP’s five year project of conferring respectability to Trump’s embrace of totalitarianism. 

Trump is the Republican Party and in the words of Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post columnist and a Republican Party survivor, anyone who is sane should get out. Trump has taken control of the party apparatus and his most rabid following controls the State GOP committees. For those who believe that Trump’s party supports democracy they should heed the words of Steve Schmidt, former Republican Party strategist and campaign manager for the late John McCain. Schmidt has become a single issue voter. He is joining the Democratic Party because he favors democracy over “populism”. 

While Trump is nationally discredited, “populism” aka “Trumpism” is alive and well. Besides the legal trouble he is in he is a “loser”. The danger is whoever might takeover from him needn’t have the same baggage. A Tucker Carlson or a clean cut Josh Hawley may not inject the same revulsion that Trump has and America could finally join Brazil, Hungry, Russia, North Korea and China in its form of Government.

POPULISM - WHAT IS IT?

Populism is the modern day adoption of fascist philosophy to democracies. Central to the movement is that its policies are not based on reason but rather what The Leader perceives are the desires and prejudices of the chosen. The leader is central to the whole movement. He/she embodies the soul of the people. Over half the Evangelicals believe Trump was sent by God. He is not to be challenged. It is his way or the highway. 

 In this doctrine truth is not objective but subjective. As Kelly Anne Conway, when faced with an obvious distortion of reality, verbalized early on the Trump reign, “We have a different truth”. Also projection is used in the demagoguery hence you attack your opponents to “Stop the Steal”when you are the one doing the stealing. There are superior and inferior beings - Mexicans are rapists, Muslims are terrorists, caravans are coming to invade, immigrants would be fine from Norway…. . The inferior beings always turn out to have pigmented skin or are “left wing socialists”.

The inferior beings are belittled. However the inferior beings are capable of conquering the superior group and therefore need to be curtailed. Trump has a belief that all African Americans live in inner cities where they are no jobs and when you walk in the street you get shot. Then there is blaming the other side for his group’s atrocities, for example Charlottesville and the siege on the Capitol. The latter he told the Republican House Leader Kevin McCarthy was being perpetrated by ANTIFA. Then there is an attack on independent institutions such as the judiciary while the press are the enemies. Anything that The Leader disagrees with is “Fake News”. 

Also important to populism as it was with fascism is that the superior group or race are the ones being discriminated against, Trump and his following are victims and they are all share the manufactured reality. Added to that is the paranoia that this evokes with the result being the militarizing of conspiracy groups such as Q,Anon and the Proud Boys to protect The Leader, his party and to Make America Great Again. The followers buy into the whole kit and caboodle and The Leader becomes an omnipotent infallible God. If he says that he will be President forever then that will happen. 

THE CPAC AGENDA - DOMINANT IS VALIDATION OF “THE BIG LIE”.

While it is difficult to rate Trump’s over thirty thousand untruths the one that stands out is “The Big Lie”, that he won the election. That mistruth is in a photo finish with the claim that Covid  is like flu and “like a miracle” will just go away. 

With all this in mind the agenda of the CPAC meeting is instructive. The dominant theme of the three days is the validation of “The Big Lie: Under the heading of Protection of Elections there are seven sessions: 1. Voting is democracy. Why we must protect elections; 2. Other culprits. Why judges and media refused to look at the evidence; 3.The left pulled the strings, covered it up and even admits it; 4 Failed states, GA, AR and NV; 5.They told ya so, The signs were always there; 6. Successful States and 7. Pandora’s ballot box - what’s next?;

A glance at a few of the other topics make it even more clear where CPAP are coming from and the Republican Party are going: Senator Mike Lee - Why the Left Hates the Bill of Rights and We Love it; Several symposia including: Tolerance reimagined - Violence in our Streets; The Left’s Assault on Free People; How Government, Big Tech and Media are colluding to deprive us of our Liberty; Sell Outs - The Devaluing of American Citizenship and The Voter Files - The Truth is out there ask your election Lawyers

So the ethos of populism runs through the whole conference: The reality is Trump won the election; The Republicans are still victims; Citizenship is being devalued and big government, big tech and the media are conspiring against them. It is the Left, (the inferior) that are assaulting the people and the violence is in the street protests not in Charlottesville and the capitol. The Proud Boys and Q,Anon are not a problem like Covid isn’t either. With regard to the former the official line is that POTUS 45 had absolutely nothing to do with the insurrection. As for anything Covid it is associated with the taking away of “freedoms”.

GOP DINOSAURS - WHERE ARE THEY NOW AND WHERE ARE THEY GOING?

This is the current populist world that the Republicans are living in - Biden’s approval rating is about sixty percent, Trump’s is in the lower thirties and  the GOP legislator leaders like McConnell and McCartney are even less. In this milieu Trump still controls the base of the Republican Party and the State legislators and State GOP committees are doing his bidding. The National Republican legislators are not really supportive of Trump. Even in the House, Lynne Cheney the GOP number three who voted for Trump’s impeachment received a vote of confidence - a hundred and forty five to sixty one in a secret ballot. Mitch McConnell served up the most vicious attack on Trump blaming him for the insurrection and calling on the Judiciary to investigate and there was not even a murmur that he should be replaced as Republican leader of the Senate. Yet the overwhelming majority of the GOP legislators publicly support “The Big Lie” not even accepting of Trump’s role in the “populist” insurrection of the Capitol.

In the present circumstances Trump is still the de facto head of the Republican Party where all he does is play golf, plot primaries against anyone who hasn’t shown a hundred percent obsequious loyalty to him and give audiences to Republicans who want his blessing and come to kiss his ring. He is forming a “Super” Political Action Committee which will him allow him to receive huge donations. He the outgoing “loser” President who doesn’t ascribe to democratic principles nor Republican policy yet is invited to the key Republican policy show piece to give the keynote address on “The Future of the Republican Party”. Trump attacking his presidential successor at this stage is against the unwritten rule but he writes his own rules. In addition the rest of the CPAC program and all the speakers slavishly are in sync with his mantra. Normally, according to Michael Steele, a former republican National Committee Chairman, this show piece would feature all the prospective candidates for 2024 but there is no Larry Hogan, Nikki Haley, John Kasich….

In this mess how do the national Republican legislators respond. Publicly they respond as if nothing is going on - McConnell sees no change. He has even said if Trump is the nominee in 2024 he will support him; McCarthy claims it is ok that Trump is still calling the shots while Cheney reaffirms that Trump has no place in the GOP. In practice their only policies thus far is to make life as difficult for the Biden agenda and hang onto power. It also hasn’t past unnoticed that Biden’s nominees of color are the ones challenged. While seventy - six percent of the electorate are in favor of the Covid relief Bill so far there is not one Republican legislative vote for it. Most important they are ignoring the fact the paradigm has changed in American politics and it is now a fight between democracy and totalitarianism. 

Mitch McConnell has made it clear that he wants to win back the Senate. He never has had any policy objectives other than appointing Judges, seeing to it that no Obama legislation ever gets passed and of course being leader of the Senate. To regain the Senate means he has to take on Trump and his base in the Primaries. Even with all the financial backing he will get, there is no chance. Any rate the moneyed business culture is heavily into redressing economic equality and racial injustice. A one hundred and fifty of the largest companies in America have backed Biden’s Covid Bill.Then there are the small set of legislators who have spoken out against Trump. But generally they still have not recognized that the main battle on the agenda is not how much is devoted to Covid relief or whether a Biden nominee has tweeted nasty things about Republicans but rather to ensure democracy. They too should be fighting the fact that the States are introducing over two hundred voter suppression measures. They need to signify that they will support the Democrats Federal voting rights Bill.

While it is acknowledged that by far the majority of Republican legislators are against Trump they still keep their mouths shut. They will just shut up like Stalin’s politburo did and muddle on and pray for a miracle.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN

Trump and Trumpism will keep the Republican Party.Trump himself will be too heavily embroiled in litigation to really run in the election so Don J. Jnr. is your man. Don Jnr. was also a featured speaker. He is already careering around the country campaigning for this Governor or that. Maybe a couple of Republican troglodytes will survive but Trump nominees as matters stand cannot get elected in meaningful enough numbers to take over anything especially if Biden gets through his Covid Bill and then one on infrastructure. 

To illustrate the bankruptcy of the Republican Party Trump will be elected as the nominee for the 2024 election in the poll of CPAC attendees.

Trump won’t build a Presidential library because he only has two books.

WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN

The Republican legislators should as Billy Kristol, another recovering Republican, has argued just help Biden where ever they can. This will ensure that democracy triumphs. They then can regroup and reformulate an alternative policy. For the moment the GOP have deserted whatever they stood for. Even worse they have allowed a tyrant to hijack their Party and throw a giddy celebration of the fact.

NOTE: This blog was written at the beginning of the CPAC Conference so it could not cover in detail the rapture of POTUS 45’s address and the idolatrous adulation that would follow.

BIDEN, MCCONNELL, TRUMP AND GOP POST JANUARY 20

America has just experienced its worst violent factional conflict since the Civil War.The January 6, 2021 insurrection to overthrow the legitimate government was led by the defeated and outgoing President. The latter rather than being repudiated by his own party was not convicted of the seditious act even though there was graphic irrefutable video evidence as to his guilt. Fifty - five percent of Americans believe he was guilty as charged and sixty - eight percent agree that he did nothing to stop the violence - either or both the latter should have necessitated a guilty finding. The reasons behind the majority of Republican Senators’ behavior are varied and complex. To a large extent they are a reflection of the battle for control of the GOP between Trump and Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell.

The trial exacerbated the tensions of this traumatic period in the country which is in the throes of a pandemic that has killed close on half a million people and engendered a massive economic crisis. In addition America and the world is experiencing a market revolution which rivals the industrial revolution resulting in a loss of jobs and income of swathes of the population. Added to that uncertainty there is massive dislocation of populations who are risking their lives to find sanctuary in richer and safer countries including America. There is also a widespread loss of trust with traditional government and many Western Countries have seen their democracies challenged by authoritarian populists. America again is no exception. To add to American woes the Southern States particularly,Texas, as a result of freezing weather, has seen an almost total collapse of its infrastructure. 

The newly elected President Biden faces many challenges both political and policy wise as he enters his Presidency as democracy teeters on the brink. 

THE SHRINKING REPUBLIC PARTY AND TRUMP’S DOMINANCE OVER IT

Consider these two statistics: Seventy - five percent of Republicans want to see former President Trump play a prominent role in politics versus thirty - four percent of all Americans. Nearly two thirds of the population believe he should play no role at all. Sixty percent of the Republicans want a third party which is indicative of the uncertainty as to the direction their party may take.

 It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that the Republican Party is shrinking and those remaining are, in the main, supportive of Trump. Nevertheless the majority of the GOP seem unhappy at the direction they perceive the Party is going. There is no doubt that Trump generally speaking is highly unpopular amongst the US citizens and his position has worsened since January 6 and the follow up Senate trial. His approval rate is now in the thirty percent plus range never ever having reached more than forty - five percent. 

Although the GOP is shrinking, by gerrymandering voter constituencies, using voter suppression tactics and the fact that the original constitution loaded power in favor of the underpopulated areas which are predominately Republican, they remain competitive in the legislature. Thus the current status where Biden won the election by seven million votes is that he has only slim majorities in the House and Senate making the 2022 mid term elections the most crucial in decades. It will also test the future of the Trump faction in the Republican Party and the direction American politics is taking with Biden at the helm.

BIDEN’S DILEMMA AND HISTORY

With Biden’s approval rate over a record sixty - percent and disapproval rate at thirty five percent should he give a damn about the bipartisan approach he touted? It certainly was one of the factors responsible for gaining the Presidency by persuading swing votes in key states to provide him an electoral college victory in an election process that is hopelessly distorted in favor of the Republican minority.

Central to the bipartisan split is the issue as to who is an American - whites only or all Americans. However as illustrated  by the insurrection, the aspiration of the  Declaration of Independence that “All men being created equal” has not yet been fulfilled. Should Biden just recognize that he is dealing with a problem that has existed since the inception of the Republic and defies resolution?.

The greatest proponent of a united America, Abe Lincoln, who after a civil war to free those enslaved has set the belief of hope, reconciliation and the fulfillment of equality among all citizens and the control of the government by “We the people”. There is no hint of accountability. It is all kumbaya. Consider his second inaugural after that bitterly fought war,: 

“With malice toward none; with charity for all; with firmness in the right, as God give us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in; to bind the nation’s wounds; to care for him, who shall have borne the battle, and for his widow, and his orphan…” 

Lincoln just wanted to move on. However the resentment of the segregationists lingered. To a significant extent the arc of history has bent more and more to the Founders’ desire. However each step forward has been encountered by fierce attempts to keep the country under white male control. After each battle there has been the Lincoln approach that now that the fight has been won the other side will accept the outcome.  There has never been appropriate accountability or an assessment of those who simply joined the supremacists as a hope it would be an answer to grievances.

Biden must not interfere with any accountability, even of Trump, and only attempt to unite with those who have just joined with Trump out of desperation to have their grievances met. One issue seems certain the wheels of Justice must be allowed to grind on. Gerald Ford did not succeed in “Healing the Nation” by pardoning Nixon. Biden will be under massive pressure to do so especially by the legislative Republicans who will argue that this will unite the country.That is not what history has shown.

BIDEN AFTER THE SENATE TRIAL

Biden ran on three central themes which he juxtaposed with an amoral and incompetent Trump:                                    An aspirational one with slogans such as, “Battle for the soul of the nation”, which he linked to the Charlottesville riots which embraced white supremacy and violence claiming that was the spur that decided him to run. “Our Best days lie ahead, Build Back Better and Unite for a Better America”, were some of the others.

    A pragmatic approach with the issues foremost troubling Americans - Covid, the economy, immigration, racial justice, infrastructure, health for all, climate change  and job creation being central:

      Being a center candidate who understood everyone’s problems and being able to work in a bipartisan manner and unite the country.

From the get go Biden began working on his massive Covid relief package. He called Republicans to discuss it and in the legislature he was prepared to accept amendments but having gone through all the motions he let it be known - come hell or high water - that he would pass it with only Democratic votes if necessary.  His Press Secretary made it quite clear that when he claimed to be everyone’s President, even those who didn’t vote for him, this is part of what he meant, These policy decisions were for all Americans. He consulted the Governors and Mayors of both parties and they all wanted it as do the majority of Americans.

The big issue for Biden is that although he can get his Covid relief through without ten Republicans but, in the Senate, other priorities would need them, as otherwise the Democrats  could be subject to the filibuster. What will he do on issues such as a Bill to eliminate voter suppression and one on police reform, for example? Dispense with the filibuster? Although the center in 2020 tipped the balance it was built on the solid foundation of a massive African American turn out. He owes it to them to remove the voter suppression that has progressively returned since the introduction of the Civil Rights in the 1960’s. How much longer will it take for the four year Civil War of 1861 to finally be resolved?

Biden for the moment is appealing and conversing with all and sundry maintaining a positive posture with his empathetic approach and obvious mastery of the administration of the country. 

THE REPUBLICANS IRRECONCILABLE SPLIT- TRUMP V MCCONNELL

There are now two irreconcilable factions of the GOP, Trump and his family  - who Lindsey Graham and Majorie Taylor Greene have declared the saviors and the Mitch McConnell faction. McConnell has called upon the justice system to sort out Trump and stated that those with “lunatic ideas” should be thrown out of the party. However the legislative Republicans who by and large quietly support the McConnell position are not in control of the State and Local party hierarchy because those who aspire to these positions are usually the most rabid part of the base. Already some of those Republicans who voted to impeach or convict have been censored by the local or state bodies. 

Trump for his part is focussed on getting revenge on these legislators - that is his agenda for the moment! Lest there be any doubt that the rift between Trump and McConnell is irreconcilable Trump issued a lengthy statement smearing McConnell and his family and labelling the Senate leader a political hack. McConnell countered by stating he will support only the candidates that have a chance of winning in 2022 not any that are endorsed by any “particular individual.” Lindsey Graham has pleaded with the two parties to call it quits and claimed that without Trump the Republican Party is doomed, Likewise he publicly reminded Trump how important McConnell was for the Republicans’ legislative agenda. He is off to Mar A Lago again.

There is going to be a monumental tussle in the Republican primaries in the 2022 mid term elections. There will be McConnell with a ton of money versus Trump who has a fat bounty himself but not nearly enough to fund a whole campaign. McConnell by letting Trump loose has reassured the big donors to open their checkbooks as he can nobble Biden via the Senate. If Trump candidates win in the Primaries, and they have to start out favorites, their chances of succeeding in the 2022 midterms will be low and the Democrats will increase their majority. McConnell’s nightmare will have become a reality. 

What will be a fascinating contest is the North Carolina Senate race which the Republicans hold and daughter in law Laura Trump is giving a hard look at. She has been called the future of the Republican Party by Lindsey Graham who is Trump’s number two man. (Up to time of going into print that is).

There is one issue the Republican factions agree upon as their party becomes narrower and narrower - voter suppression and gerrymandering which helps even up the tussle. 

REPUBLICAN COALITION AND IMPONDERABLES

The Trump Republican coalition is made up of an ever decreasing number of the true believers in fiscal conservatism and small government, evangelicals, the militia and white supremacist types and a large body of disaffected white male voters who feel ignored by the original Republicans who only looked after the rich and the Democrats who are now the party of the minorities, women, LGBT group and intellectual elites. The disaffected are a sizable group who have been impacted by the economic change and feel victimized. There are also those in rural areas that have become depopulated and whose economies have taken a hit. On top of that they feel that it is the Whites that are victimized by the system.  Finally there are the urban and suburbanites some of whom split their votes between Trump and the legislative candidates in 2020 making the Republicans competitive in the Legislature.

Well there is no way that the Republican elites are going to once again take a chance on Trump or any of his candidates. The white women in the suburbs and urban areas will have been finally shaken out of their complacency by January 6. The militia and white supremacist types will start lumping him in with the rest when their compatriots, mainly leaders face trial. They will be  reminded that Trump simply used them - selling out big time by calling for their prosecution. Probably the biggest component, the Evangelicals - the only group that got what they wanted, (they weren’t much interested in the wall), three Supreme Court Judges and the full throat backing of Israel, - will want to know what Mike Pence will have to say. Pence is the one who gave credence to Trump’s whole Damascus experience on abortion family values and the rest. Pence is a highly respected Evangelical himself.The story leaked thus far is that he too is furious with Trump who sent out a lynch mob to get him.

The swing group the “victims” and the rural group who already have begun to abandon him as the Biden and Georgia elections indicated are definitely a constituency that Biden can win over especially if he gets these former blue collar workers good paying jobs which could even extend into rural areas in the fields of infrastructure and climate change. 

There is no hope for the GOP to make up for this by the youth vote which is now the largest demographic sector. The percentages that are pro Democrat and are anti Trump are increasing by the day.

THE BIDEN CHOICE

For Biden to settle the racial justice system, the job and infrastructure problem and the immigration mess he will have to decide on whether to implement the nuclear option and do away with the filibuster in the Senate that mandates that sixty votes are needed on nearly all legislation. Ironically it only needs fifty - one votes to throw it out. For the country to move forward and get out of its retrogressive rut of the last half century Biden has got to do what he has to do. He then may face a destructive Supreme Court which will just have to gain a non partisan complexion. The GOP may not like him breaking with tradition but it is all legal. If you don’t believe Jay H. Ell ask Mitch McConnell.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Republican traditionalists lost their chance by not convicting Trump which virtually every constitutional lawyer stated they could and all the facts pointed to a guilty verdict. Now they are the ones that might have to start a new party, not Trump. Trump need not bother to form “The Patriot Party”, the Republican Party is about to change its name.

2022 and 2024 will determine if Biden is just a blip in the Trump revolution or that Trump was the aberration in the American story. Besides all the additional voter suppression activities that certain states are introducing, traditionally midterms favor the Party that has not the WhiteHouse. 

Win or lose Trump will be in the public eye for the duration even if it is only as a defendant in an ever growing myriad of litigation, criminal or civil. To illustrate that this equality struggle is one that wasn’t resolved with the Civil War, Trump is being sued under an 1871 Law that was meant to control the KKK from interfering with any person holding office. It didn’t work then and apparently doesn’t work now. 

Meanwhile Biden has rejoined the world. The world is obviously wary as to whether the change in America is for real and for at least eight years. Trump’s wrecking ball legacy lives on…… 

If you want to see who isn’t in at the right wing freak show of the Conservative Action Party Conference just note the list of those not invited to speak - McConnell, McCarthy, Cheney, Romney and Haley while the keynote address will be given by Trump himself and loyal members of his cabinet are all featured. For the record Mike Pence refused an invitation.

HYPOCRITICAL MCCONNELL AND GOP FIND LOSER TRUMP NOT GUILTY

 

February 13, 2021 will go down in infamy as the Republican Senate failed to convict Donald Trump. It will be coupled with January 6, 2021 which will be mourned as the second major terrorist attack on America in the twenty - first century. First there was 9/11 an external terrorist attack and 1/6 the internal terrorist attack which was an attack on American democracy by Americans. Trump is the acknowledged “mastermind” and perpetrator of 1/6. Even the majority of forty - three Senate Republicans who voted against conviction used constitutional or procedural excuses to do so. Not to be dramatic but he will be associated with 1/6 in the same way Osama Bin Laden is associated with 9/11. If you don’t believe Jay H. Ell listen to what McConnell implIed even after he voted not to convict him - his actions required judicial investigation.

 The outcome will throw the GOP into chaos with Trump still not conceding he lost the Presidential election and still the most powerful member of the Party.

TRUMP THE LOSER

As a background to Trump’s Senate trial it was painfully obvious that Trump while still the strongest force amongst the Republican Party base had been witnessing the erosion of his power both nationally, in the Presidential election, and on a State level in the Georgian senate contests. Nearly sixty percent of the electorate were in favor of Trump being impeached following the January the Sixth insurrection. The number of Republican leaders who have condemned him for his attempt of overthrow of democracy are legion, including Mitch McConnell, Republican Leader in the Senate and his counterpart in the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy. Nikki Haley a strong contender for the Republican Presidential election had argued that there was no room for Trump in the GOP. Liz Cheney the number three Republican in the House had clearly defined the guilt of the President in a statement supporting his impeachment. Cheney’s declaration covered the extent of the perfidy of Trump:

“The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing. None of this what have happened without the President. The President could have immediately and forcefully intervened to stop the violence. He did not. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States and his oath to the Constitution.”

The Democratic House managers in the Senate, eruditely and eloquently lead by Jamie Raskin, during Trump’s prosecution filled in every detail in astonishing clarity of Cheney’s assertion in attempting to convict Trump of inciting an insurrection. The facts were never in doubt only their interpretation and their constitutionality. The debate as to whether they should have called witnesses is an exercise in futility and would not have impacted the outcome and should not detract from their dramatic and persuasive performance.

However the question is where does the Republican Party stand at the moment?

 THE REPUBLICAN PARTY TODAY

Whichever way the situation is viewed Trump is still the most powerful figure in the Republican Party. It was with this in mind that only ten of the two hundred and seven GOP members in the House voted for his impeachment and forty - three out of fifty Republican Senators voted not to convict him on instigating the insurrection. However Trump’s actions on January 6 has seen tens of thousands of Republicans resign from the Party. Recently near a hundred and fifty influential Republicans were on a call to discuss the concept of forming a new Party. Translating this into electoral terms means the GOP are in a worse position in 2012 when they came to the conclusion that they could never win another Presidential election again unless they were more inclusive of minorities. Trump produced a black swan moment and was elected on the basis of white supremacy. Now he could never win another election again - the demographics have worsened, white Republican women suburbanites and men in lesser numbers have deserted them forever. In addition they stand to lose the support of the Evangelicals who hold Mike Pence in the highest regard.

What also supports Trump’s position in the Republican party is the fact that it has shrunk by an estimated twenty percent and those that remain are loyal to him. His nominees control the Republican National Committee. Put another way although he has cost the GOP a loss of membership the remainder support him by even a greater percentage of the party. Senator Lindsey Graham announced that he was going to have discussions with Trump next week to discuss the Party’s future! Kevin McCarthy in spite of his fury at Trump’s role in the January insurrection went off to see Trump and worship at the throne and kiss and make up. So whichever way you look at it the Republican Party is split into two factions - the anti Trump faction and the far more powerful Trump faction.

MITCH MCCONNELL 

Mitch McConnell now the Republican Minority leader of the Senate was more than mindful of the politics of the Republican Party when he voted not to convict Trump. McConnell who has the morals of an alley cat has added another notch to his notoriety. What can one expect from someone who flagrantly went back on his word when it came to electing Supreme Court Judges. His duplicitous behavior deserves a special place in history. He licked Trump’s boots for four years, backed him in the Mueller investigation not to mention supporting him to the hilt through out his term and manipulating the Senate in the First Impeachment trial not to give the effort a chance. Even in this latest episode it took him five weeks to acknowledge Biden’s victory. 

The minority Senate Republican leader maintained that Trump up until December 16, 2020 was entitled to do whatever he liked to challenge the election results. Ostensibly he was alluding to Trump’s sixty frivolous court challenges. At the same time Trump was spreading the “lies” which McConnell so strongly condemned on January 6, 2021 and then again on February 13 after voting not to convict him. He closed down the Senate till January 18 and then used this as his argument that Trump could not be found guilty as he was now a private citizen. If his object was to show America and the world that democracy had returned he would have rated the importance of the process important enough to call the Senate back and proceed while Trump was still President. Instead he invited the one constitutional expert in America who interpreted the Constitution the way he did to address the Republican caucus. 

Had he decided for any reason to maintain why Republicans should vote to convict he would easily brought another ten with him. He could have argued let’s not throw Mike Pence under the bus for example. If there would have been any constitutional objection he could have quoted any one of the most conservative jurists who poured out of everywhere to state that the trial was constitutionally sound. 

McConnell’s motives were transparent. He could stay in with the base by voting not to convict Trump and satisfy the Republican donors who won’t give the party a penny while Trump is still around. Well there is news for McConnell thanks to him he is still around. The irony is McConnell misread that Trump’s influence was on the way out anyway. He was part of a phenomenon that has hit this country at least three times in the past hundred years - the rise and then waning of power of a destructive populist totalitarian demagogue.

AMERICA’S EXPERIENCE WITHIN A CENTURY OF TOTALITARIAN SOCIOPATHIC DEMAGOGUES

America, besides having never fully resolved the issues that precipitated the Civil war, has seen demagogues, aka populists, dominate and stultify society with monotonous regularity. In less than a century three immediately come to mind, Charles Lindberg, Joseph McCarthy and Donald Trump. All three were involved, in the creation of devastating divisions in American politics, However it was Trump who faced the racial superiority issue head on by opting for directly and obliquely that the definition of an American was his or her white skin. Lindberg who was a national icon by virtue of his exploits as a pioneer of aviation had a spell binding impact on a large section of the American population with his anti war and pro Nazi leanings. He believed in the superiority of the White Race and coined the term “America First”. He earned the ire of FDR and as his political influence started to wane it was finally terminated by Pearl Harbour.

Joe McCarthy and Donald Trump have often been compared as their sociopathic personalities and charisma are their central defining characteristics. Ironically they were connected by the same unscrupulous lawyer Roy Cohn who welded their approaches into creating false realities  and forever going on the attack. They both were skillful manipulators of mobs, at attaining publicity, mobilizing the discontents and claiming a monopoly on patriotism. Joe McCarthy sought, in the fragile post war cold war period, to create a specter of Communism having infiltrated the portals of power and entertainment. Trump similarly claimed that there was a deep state, the swamp, controlling the lives of Americans. McCarthy ruined many a life by smear and innuendo. In many ways he was more influential than Trump reaching an approval rating of over fifty - four percent while Trump languished in the very low forties. Truman and then Eisenhower were powerless to counter him. Republicans were more reliant on him than they are on Trump not to be primaried. However it all came crashing down after about four years when he took on the armed forces implying that they too had been infiltrated. 

Donald Trump received a major shock to his invincibility when he lost the Presidential election in 2020. This sent him into a spiral of weaving a new reality that he had won in a landslide and that there had been wide scale fraud in the electoral process and its counting. He went through every possible avenue to support his contention. His repetition was so pervasive and his back up stories so many and varied that he spun a web of lies that were easily refutable and some of which have resulted in litigation for vast sums of money. There was at least one where he attempted to bully local elected state officials to alter the election count to make him the winner and several where he outright demanded that he just be declared the winner by fiat. 

The ultimate salvo was an attempt at insurrection where he assembled and incited an armed mob to tackle the Capitol so as to prevent the certification of the election results.(Incidentally the District of Columbia are investigating whether to prosecute Trump on the crime of incitement). His desperate effort resulted in his impeachment and the Senate trial. His current approval rating was thirty - four percent prior to the outcome in the trial in the Senate.

Trump like Lindberg and McCarthy had run out their time and influence. McConnell et al have given him a boost by making him seem omnipotent much like head of the Gambino family in New York, John Gotti, was viewed when in trial after trial he was found not guilty. He. like Trump will, ran out of luck and died in prison.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

As a result of the non conviction of Trump the Republican Party is in even a bigger mess than they would have been then had they convicted him. There are two clearcut components in the Republican Party which devolve around Trump - you are either for him or against him. There is no chance in this environment to build a set of policies for the twenty - first century. Most importantly they have angered the three most important components of their party - the urban and suburban women, the movers and shakers and intellectuals that were still left and by throwing the Evangelical hero, Mike Pence, under the bus - the Evangelicals. Trump still will have to face the music for sacrificing his troops to the wolves arguing that they need the full weight of the law to punish them. 

Biden can now without the Trump distraction carry on with his policies. However he should be warned about Mitch McConnell who like Trump has as his priority power.

FOR GOP TO SURVIVE MCCONNELL MUST CONVICT TRUMP

Recent political events including the victory of the Presidency by Joseph Biden, the subsequent attempts at reversing the electoral decision by legal and extra legal methods, the instigation of an insurrection by the defeated President, Donald Trump, resulting in his subsequent impeachment by the House of Representatives have precipitated an ever increasing division in the Republican Party which threatens to split the Party. The conflict is being played out by proxy by a number of personalities.  Trump who demands loyalty to himself rather than the Party or Country is around whom this dispute is centered. Central to the conflict is a freshman Congresswoman Majorie Taylor Greene who is associated with Q,Anon which traffics in conspiracy theories and Liz Cheney number three Republican in the House, a right of center Republican traditionalist. Important bit players include, Mitch McConnell, now Minority Republican leader of the House, Nancy Pelosi Democratic Speaker of the House and Kevin McCarthy, Minority Republican leader of the House of Representatives.

HOW THE FUTURE OF THE GOP IS BEING PLAYED OUT

For the moment the action revolves around the Congresswoman Ms. Greene who has been in the House of Representatives for four weeks. She has been responsible for perpetuating the most outlandish positions including the assassination of Ms.Pelosi and the fact that the California fires were started by lasers directed by Jews. Most importantly she claims that Trump won the election. She has the support of Trump who regards her as a rising star. To amplify her position in that regard she categorically proclaimed recently that the Republican Party better get used to the fact that it is Trump’s Party. 

Not surprisingly she has not been censored by the politically ambitious Republican House leader Kevin McCarthy or the Republican caucus. McCarthy did issue a belated statement condemning her views but would not axe her from her committees. What really rankles is that she is on the Education Committee because she claims that the two major school slaughters at Sandy Hook and Parkwood were faked and never happened.  McConnell has called for those with lunatic ideas, quoting some of Greene’s positions, to be cut out of the Party as they are a cancer. Nancy Pelosi moved that she be removed from her committee positions.. Greene had tweeted the day before that she would never apologize however she did however tell the House that she regretted what had happened and blamed social media for her exposure to these viewpoints. She held a defiant press conference the main message being that those Republicans who voted for her to be stripped of her committee appointments were traitors. They had acted against Trump who would primary them and their careers would be finished. 

Liz Cheney a doyen of the Republican Conservative Party was vigorously attacked by several Republican House legislators for voting for the impeachment of Trump. Unlike Greene, Cheney had to sustain the indignity of a secret ballot in the Republican caucus to maintain her positions. She won this contest by one hundred and forty - five to sixty - one votes. She is supported by McConnell and needless to say she has infuriated Trump. McCarthy hoping to keep the factions the two represent in the party, issued a statement that supported her. He claimed that the Republican Party has a very wide tent.

The impeachment outcome which initially appeared a done deal as there was minimal support for Trump’s conviction takes on a different possible outcome now since McConnell intervened in the proxy fight in the House by advocating expulsion from the party for Greene and strong support for Cheney. If McConnell lets Trump escape conviction without significant Republicans opposing him, Trump would become all powerful within the party. He will be free to stand again and McConnell could be the one not Trump forming the new Party. 

It will not be that easy for the Senate Republicans to hide behind a dubious constitutional interpretation to let Trump off the hook. This especially as his response to the carefully, persuasively and meticulously constructed Democratic brief is a pitiful legal document written by the only two lawyers who were prepared to represent him at the last minute. The fact that the Don has refused to testify himself will not exactly help  Then there will be video presented which many of the audience out there will be watching for the first time as a connected whole pointing to Trump’s guilt. An audience that Is far more interested in the facts than they are in some arcane legal argument will increase the number calling for Trump’s ouster.

Under these circumstances McConnell must try and whip up support if he would like the Republican Party as he knows it to survive.

Assessing the results of the House votes and support it appears where the ballot is secret the House Delegates are in favor of the Cheney Republican Party versus the Greene party. They fear Trump because of his ability to nobble them in the Primary. However Trump's position has weakened markedly since his electoral loss, the Georgian Senate races and the insurrection. All this adds up to McConnell not giving Trump a pass in the impeachment trial.

HOW IT ALL WORKS. AND HOW TRUMP HIJACKED THE PARTY IN 2016

In a democracy in order to gain power a party has to form coalitions of supporters. Especially in a two party system this can become a challenging task with all the varying constituencies with all their diverse beliefs, economic circumstances,  attitudes and prejudices. The fact that the two main parties in the USA were not doing a very good job of creating wide tents has been reflected in the low voter turnouts in elections. 

The voter turn out in Presidential elections since 1972 has been round about fifty percent excepting for 2008 where it was fifty - seven percent. (Obama’s first term). However Donald Trump created a revolution and by 2020 the percentage participation was sixty - two percent. This he did by adding to the traditional Republican following by addressing the needs of a group who had been ignored by the politicians of both parties. However additional key constituencies that he appealed to were the white supremacists, militia groups and groups that had been considered on the lunatic fringe - a constituency that had not participated in previous elections. Not only had the internet welded them into sizable bodies Trump consolidated them into one entity with him as their leader, This crowd besides embracing white supremacy and violence as a means to their ends also were added to Trump’s support of those whose needs had been ignored by the Washington elites. In addition the majority of the Republicans, especially the Evangelicals voted for Trump widening the Republican tent enough to win the Electoral College albeit losing the popular vote by three million.

The upshot of Trump’s entry into the Republican fraternity was it revived it from its slow death march by creating new constituencies so that it could continue to survive with the changing demographics. However within four short years it sowed the seeds of its own destruction as their newest best friends, the violent white supremacists gained more and more of a stronghold of the GOP’s base and lead by Trump ignored the basic tenets of democracy. This resulted in a section of the Republican Party abandoning him, his racism mobilized African Americans, Republican suburbanites switched loyalties and his failure to deliver on promises saw Biden winning back Democrats that had voted for Trump in 2016. His coalition had shrunk, However he had brought into the political arena the white supremacists who were now the most vocal component of Trump’s coalition. So while he could never regain a majority in the whole electorate and didn’t even have the support of the majority of the Republican Party as it is now constituted, he was still the most powerful factor in it.

HOW THE COOKIE CRUMBLES FROM NOW ON

The traditional GOP is on its heels. Cheney all be it she survived did not get a free pass like Greene did. In addition ten Senate Republicans are talking to Biden and he is listening. Although POTUS 46 remains fixed on a broad Covid relief bill he is open to suggestions as to modifications on how the money is spent. This keeps his approval rating near sixty percent and the backing for his Covid solution near the seventy percent. All this must be making the suburban Republicans even more comfortable with Biden’s Democratic Party and with Greene and the insurrection ads already hitting the screens that constituency may permanently remain in the Democratic camp. Also the Political Action Committees formed by former Republicans are still at it already working on the 2022 elections. The founder of the Lincoln Project Steve Schmidt, McCain’s former campaign manager, said he has become a one issue man - democracy is his issue and has joined the Democratic party, regardless of his disagreement with them on most other policies.

So can McConnell still stand around “Waiting for Godot”. If he wants the Republican Party to rebuild itself he better “cut out the cancer” by leading a big section of Senators to convict Trump. It is no use trying to keep the Party together. At the moment Trump gets off scot free then all those not loyal to Trump, like Cheney, will be primaried. Does McConnell want the battle there. If he can cut out the cancer now the ‘lunatics” forming a third party will get nowhere. One thing is for certain Greene and company will not hang around if Trump will be axed, The militias may get a bit tense but their leadership are all awaiting trial. 

The polling for the Republican dramatis personae involved in the “Stop the Steal” movement suck even though several are not all that well known. In Ms. Greene's case, the cause celebre of the legislative controversy only fifty percent were prepared to offer an opinion as to her acceptability of whom only fifteen percent approve and thirty - seven percent disapprove, whereas twenty - seven percent had a favorable opinion of Liz Cheney and thirty - one percent unfavorable. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY - MCCONNELL ACT NOW

So McConnell you got your conservative judges and your lower taxes, cut your losses and axe Trump. It is obvious that the legislative traditionalist Republican Party outnumber the Trumpets as illustrated by the Cheney vote in the House. As for the Senate other than for a few cult members there is not much love lost for POTUS 45.

The question is whether the enabling of Trump will continue by the Republican Senators who supposedly believe that keeping him alive and well, regardless of the facts, is best for their party. It would be too much to ask that they consider the destruction he does to the country as well. McConnell et al sold out in impeachment one, One rarely gets a second chance to be on the right side of history……

The history of white supremacists in America is as old as the country but they have not triumphed yet. From the slave owners, to the Jim Crows, the John Birch Society… their belief has always been that the non whites were not real citizens. After their defeat in the sixties by the Civil Rights Movement gradually they have once again introduced voter suppression laws and finally the remnants of the extremists have been brought together by Donald Trump. Do the Republican Party really want to provide a home, an infrastructure even a legitimacy to the descendants of the Confederacy? A vote to convict their leader will weaken this latest effort.