To an audible sigh of relief by the majority of Americans, which sentiment was reinforced across the world, Joe Biden was constitutionally installed as the President elect of America on January 6, 2021.The event was hardly the boring formality of years gone by as it was shattered by a determined attempt to violently thwart the outcome. The mob Trump incited to attack the Capitol was to reinforce his objective for the Republicans acting in concert with Vice President Pence to reverse the results of a legitimate election and install him as President. It was an insane quixotic initiative from the word go as Pence had refused to act illegally and there was no way that the Senate would go along with the coup.
Trump’s continuing defiance indicated that one way or another he and his family would endeavor to remain a force in American politics for the foreseeable future. He is now in open conflict with the most powerful Republican in Congress, Mitch McConnell. All of this left pundits wondering if the Republican Party would be able to contain the factions led by these two starkly different personalities with their beliefs on constitutional democracy and white supremacy.
The immediate fallout of these unprecedented interventions was that Trump was forced to acknowledge that Biden was the President elect. In spite of his sudden conversion to reality he showed no sign of contrition or remorse for the havoc he had wreaked still maintaining that the election was rigged and that he was the lawful President. In fact anonymous sources stated that he regretted his concession.
Events have really moved quickly since the abortive attempt at insurrection both politically and by force just about a week ago when thousands of Trump’s ragbag army stormed the capitol in a futile attempt to seize power and nearly a hundred and fifty Republican parliamentarians voted to reverse the constitutionally conducted 2020 Presidential election. The vote took place after President Trump had incited the insurrection and had done all in his power to alter a vote which had been sustained by the states and the courts. This behavior forced a reluctant Nancy Pelosi to move to remove this rogue President at the expense of denying the newly elected Democratic President Joseph Biden an unopposed stage to introduce his agenda. His Presidency would be adulterated by Trump’s persona looming large over his first hundred days.
About to be minority leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell welcomed the impeachment of Trump which action would make it easier, it was reported, to remove him from the Republican Party. Jay H. Ell believes it is irrelevant whether Trump is removed from his office by the Senate or not as he and his children will still be a dominant force in American politics and at the moment they are in the leadership of the GOP not McConnell.
MCCONNELL’S RATIONALE FOR AXING TRUMP
It has become patently obvious that the majority of the electorate which included a small but crucial section of the Republican party had rejected Trump. This was illustrated by the splitting of the tickets in the general election where Trump drew fewer votes than national GOP candidates down ballot. This had allowed Biden to become President. Not only did he lose the electoral college but also the popular vote by seven million. Trump’s intervention in the Georgia Senate run off election had seen two unlikely Democratic candidates triumph with a hundred and fifty thousand vote reversal in two months. McConnell and the Republicans had lost the Senate as a result. With the changing demographics and the prospect of the suburban Republicans permanently seeking a home outside the Party the seasoned Senator reckoned Trump had to go. In addition McConnell is some sort of traditionalist and constitutionalist and it was repugnant to see Trump in the name of his Party trash those values. For all his faults he is not a white supremacist either.
McConnell could read the tea leaves with regard to the polls. Within a week of the insurrection the percentage of Americans wanting Trump to be removed from office jumped from forty to fifty - three percent and his approval rating from forty - six percent to below forty, (a Quinnipiac had it as low as thirty - three percent). What could follow would result in even more suburban defections from the Party. The Investigations into the riot could even include the President, Don Jnr, and Rudi Giuliani. Over a hundred and fifty invaders of America’s symbol of democracy had already been arrested and some would be charged with sedition. It did not need a legal genius that many of those would argue in mitigation that it was the Republican POTUS had spurred them on to do it.
In the event that Trump himself could be charged and the Republicans had cleared him McConnell could forget the suburban vote forever. In addition one of the leaders of “Stop the Steal” had named three Republican House members, one of whom spoke at Trump’s incendiary rally that they had colluded with and who had shown the rioters the layout of the Capitol the day before. A Democratic Senator had reported, on January 5, to the Sergeant at Arms that there had been groups that had been taken around the Capitol. The reason for her concern was that tours were illegal because of Covid restrictions. There was further circumstantial evidence that these were reconnaisance tours as a number of Democratic representatives were amazed how the invaders found offices well off the beaten path.
Dozens of major companies have already signified they were withdrawing donations to those Republicans who had voted against the ratifying of the Electoral College outcome. Earlier a hundred and seventy major companies had written an open letter calling for Congress to accept Biden. Trump himself was hit hard with business contracts being lost the unkindest cut of them all is that one of the four major championships that had been scheduled for one of his golf courses in 2022 has been withdrawn because the Professional Golf Association claimed that “…it was bad for their brand.” McConnell realized that corporation money was the lifeblood of the Republican Party and with key donors such as the co founder of Home Depot diverting his largesse to Biden and the Koch brothers signaling that they were no longer supporting partisan politics the future would be bleak if the Party didn’t get shot off Trump
McConnell, after leaking his support for impeachment itself, in an e mail to his caucus stated that he has not yet decided whether he will vote to throw Trump out of office and would listen to the legal arguments first. He also said that the Senate should focus on the transfer of power and the inauguration rather than impeachment prior to Biden Presidency. This would also give him a number of days to see how this would all play.
TRUMP’S CLAIM TO THE PARTY
Trump has on the face of it a colossal personal following. He may have lost the election but nearly seventy five million Americans voted for him. Even now only about sixteen percent of Republicans are in favor of his ouster. McConnell could argue that the Republicans couldn’t win with him but they are even less likely to win without him. (Senators Cruz and Hawley would obviously agree with that assessment). Even a large percentage of the Republican caucus in the House voted against impeachment
Whichever way this House vote is viewed, a hundred and ninety - seven of two hundred and seven House Republicans present voted not to impeach Trump. Whatever their supposed rationale was, they obviously feel that the majority of their electorate still support Trump. The House Congresspeople are closest to the ground as they are elected every two years.
While the controversy was raging in Washington this week the Republic National Committee held its elections and both the Chairperson and CoChairman are a hundred percent in the Trump camp. That means the whole Republican infrastructure on the ground is still pro Trump. That also includes their money which added to the over two hundred million that Trump has in his campaign fund equals to a tremendous amount of leverage. There was very little anti Trump sentiment reported from that meeting where the Chairperson Rhona McDaniel hailed Trump as still being the leader of the Party. Nikki Haley claimed that Trump’s incendiary speech on January 6 was wrong. She had also criticized his post Charlottesville statement. She is considered a lively contender for the 2024 Republican nomination.
Trump has all but officially declared himself a candidate for 2024. However his position is dicey to say the least but what about Ivanka or Don Jnr. or Eric all of whom have political ambitions and could easily inherit his base? It is the base that matters in the Primary.
For the moment Trump is the leader. He will have to cope with the fact that denied Twitter and social media, with Biden and McConnell using up most of the oxygen in the room he is going to battle for exposure, other than might be provided by his legal and probable financial woes.
NEITHER TRUMP’S OR MCCONNELL’S GOP?
As the above analysis may imply the two factions cannot live together in the same party forever. While four years in politics is a lifetime the Republican party even without this split would be hard put, with the demographics worsening against them each day, to win another Presidency. They have lost the popular vote five of seven of the last Presidential elections. Trump didn’t deliver during his four years what he promised the MidWest and hence Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin went back to the Democrats. In addition the much awaited breakthrough by the Democrats occurred in Arizona and Georgia. The minority vote is being increasingly mobilized under Stacey Adam’s lead. It is not only in Georgia with her Georgia Project but throughout the country with her organization Fair Fight that she has registered and mobilized the African American vote. As this organization progresses more and more of the South will become competitive. This does not harbor well for a white supremacist like Trump.
In 2012 when Romney lost to Obama the then Chairman of the Republican National Committee Reince Priebus saw the writing on the wall in terms of the GOP surviving with the changing demographics. A lengthy “Post Mortem” report was produced the conclusion of which was that the Republicans had to meet the needs of the minorities if they were going to survive. Trump proved them wrong once but a repeat is unlikely with the demographics worsening each day.
In addition the Lincoln Project and Republicans for Biden are going to continue their onslaught on their old party. It is fair to say that the majority of the thinkers, policy makers and intellectuals of the party have left for these two organizations. They will be focussing particularly on the 2022 Senate elections which again favor the Democrats
So the GOP may have to split like its predecessor the Whig party did in the mid nineteenth century but even that won’t help unless they can come up with more than populism on the one hand and small government and low taxes on the other. It is ironic that the successor party to the Whigs, The Republican Party, was the party of Lincoln and now of Trump.
BIDEN’S TASK
Biden has to deliver and capitalize on his control of both the Senate and the House. With such a slim majority Biden cannot just pass anything he likes. The immediate agenda is assured - the quick ratification of his cabinet and administration and a Covid relief package which McConnell denied them last time. Also Biden must organize the Covid response effectively as well as get an infrastructure program on its way to provide employment.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
The American situation is tense. There are twenty - thousand National Guards in Washington which looks like the Green Zone in Baghdad. Under Biden the Justice Department and FBI will not be hindered in going after the domestic terrorists.
Whether Trump is convicted in the Senate or not depends on how McConnell reads the fall out from the failed coup and the impact on the Republican brand financially and otherwise as a result of the Trump episode.
Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Schumer must not allow the impeachment proceedings to drown out President Biden’s first hundred days.
The Republican Party’s future hangs in the balance as the fight for its soul continues. For the moment the Trump family has the upper hand but they are losing support all round rapidly. They also have to navigate their many legal challenges as well as the fall out from the revolting sedition episode.
At the end of the day perhaps the Trumps will form a Party simply to support authoritarianism and white supremacy.
Meanwhile Biden is getting ahead of the game by acting like a real President in attacking the Covid pandemic crisis and addressing the nation.
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