REPUBLICANS CHOSING TOTALITARIAN LOSER TRUMP

OATH  OF ALLEGIANCE SWORN BY MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: “I do solemnly swear, (or affirm), that I support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies foreign and DOMESTIC…..”

There can be very little doubt that the former President Donald J. Trump instigated a violent insurrection, the purpose of which was to keep him in power after he had clearly lost an election which had elevated Joseph Biden to the Presidency. There is similarly no doubt as to the facts or intent as all of his own words and behavior are on tape. Where there is doubt is how much support and influence Trump still holds on the near seventy - five million citizens that voted for him and with the GOP elected officers in the light of his behavior following the election, specifically his role in the insurrection.

 Every elected Republican official, especially those in the Senate, apparently fear for their political lives if they don’t obsequiously toe the Trump line. There is a belief not backed by the facts that citizen Trump is all powerful and that Presidential nominee wannabes must be in the front row of the cult gulping down Kool -Aid. Even if any of that was true, which it is not, they swore an oath. In addition House Minority Leader McCarthy is not only backing off his statement as to the President’s culpability in the insurrection he is failing to censure a Q.Anon supportive Republican who has argued that Nancy Pelosi should be shot in the head and Obama and Clinton should be executed. Senate Minority leader McConnell is similarly edging away from his strong condemnation of Trump. So far the Republican attacks have been reserved for Liz Cheney the third ranking GOP member of the House who has condemned POTUS 45 in no uncertain terms.

REPUBLICANS MORE CONCERNED WITH THEIR POLITICAL FUTURE THAN  THE CONSTITUTION.

The dilemma elected GOP representatives face, particularly in relation to the sequel to Trump's first impeachment, is whether to continue to aid and abet his lies in the belief that politically that is the most expedient decision regardless of it being morally bankrupt. There is the specious argument that it is not constitutionally legal to have an impeachment trial after the President has left office. The latter is the most likely cop out for many of the Republican Senators who are backing the GOP to abandon democracy. Their real motive is political survival. Shame on the party of Lincoln. In addition the failure to impeach Trump will allow him to claim that that proves his innocence. In fact they are backing a sure fire loser.

Besides POTUS 45 being corrupt, cruel, a pathological liar and a malignant narcissist he demands blind loyalty to his good self rather than the Party, Country and Constitution. He does not believe the rule of law applies to him and his behavior is that of a totalitarian. Already elected office bearers are being censured and being threatened Primaries for voting for his impeachment and for not supporting the lie that he won the election. The Republican National Committee elected his nominees as co chairmen and unanimously hailed him as leader of the Party. Is that whom the Republican Party really want as its leader? By backing Trump they are accepting totalitarianism.

The hypocrisy of the Republicans, who are the self same crowd who impeached and tried Bill Clinton for a consensual sexual affair that he lied about using the rationale that the character of the President was crucial, is monumental.

TRUMP IS A BIG TIME LOSER AND HIS POSITION IS WORSENING

There is no doubt that the ex President is still the major force in the Republican Party but his support is not enough to push the Republicans over the top. What is more his influence is receding. His approval rating on January 20, 2021 dropped to just above the mid thirties having crashed ten points following the January 6, insurrection. Even among Republicans his approval rating is down fifteen percent. Only fifty - six percent of Republicans polled believe he should run again - down dramatically from a few months ago. Also the Republican Party has markedly diminished in membership over the past few years so it is fifty - six percent of those still around. 

 In the four years Trump has been in power, the Republicans have taken a massive hit. The House and the Senate have both reverted to the Democrats all be it with small majorities. The Democrats held fifteen Governorships in 2017 and now hold twenty - four. In the 2020 Presidential election they won five states, reclaiming three and triumphing in two red states. They increased their vote count in 2020 to eighty - one million defeating Trump by seven million being four million more than in 2016. In 2018 they flipped three hundred State legislative seats and four Attorney General positions giving them the occupancy of twenty - seven of the fifty - one State head justice officers in the country. In the 2020 elections they had hoped to add to their earlier victories but lost ground in the House. 

What was most reflective as to the mood of the electorate towards Trump, two months after his defeat. The red Georgia run offs for two Senate seats that he was heavily involved in saw two losses which demanded a two hundred thousand vote reversal. His voters didn’t turn out in full and he evoked a bigger response from Democrats. 

The numbers are up on on barring him from holding office again - fifty seven percent are in favor while only forty percent believe he should be allowed to hold office. Those Republicans believing that Trump had done nothing wrong from the first impeachment to the second impeachment has decreased by twenty points - fifty six percent now to thirty - six percent then.The same Monmouth poll showed an increase in Republicans that thought Biden had won fair and square, (sixty - five percent) and more significantly of the thirty - five percent that thought that there was fraud over sixty percent believed it was time to move on.

None of this squares with the Q,Anon supporter newly elected House Republican, Ms. Greene, who proclaimed, “The vast majority of Republican voters, volunteers and donors are no longer loyal to the GOP,,,,,their loyalty now lies with Donald Trump”. One just wonders what the Republicans particularly the Senators are scared of? The Minority Leader of the House has been summoned to Mar -a - Lago to see the Don, who in between playing golf, is going to decide whether to put Kevin McCarthy on his hit list. Jay H. Ell’s guess is that unless McCarthy has the goods that can put El Capo away, whatever McCarthy says, the Don in the long run, won’t forgive him. (See The Godfather Part 2).

ARIZONA - A CASE STUDY IN TRUMP’S GOP LOSING GROUND.

To see the split in live time, Arizona which has just lost a Senate seat to the Democrats and is the Republican state that Biden flipped by a fraction, is a case study in the fracturing of Trump’s GOP with supporters leaving the Party. Not only did Biden narrowly flip the state BOTH its Senate members are now in Democrat hands. 

The leader of the Arizona GOP Committee is Kelli Ward a right wing die hard since way back. She lost to John McCain in the 2016 Primary by fifteen points after receiving hefty support from the Freedom former Tea Party faction. In the 2018 Senate Republican Primary she was backed by anyone who was anybody from the Trump camp including Steve Bannon, Senator Rand Paul and Fox New’s Laura Ingraham and was roundly beaten. In 2020 she may have lowered her ambitions, namely, the Chairmanship of the State GOP, but certainly not her sights on the most powerful sponsor, Donald Trump. In spite of his status she scraped home by three percent. This victory is now subject to audit. She challenged the Biden victory in Arizona in the Federal Courts but like her patron’s sixty challenges her case was thrown out. 

Under her direction a motion censuring Cindy McCain, the widow of John McCain who publicly advocated voting for Biden, Jeff Flake the former Senator who is an outspoken critic, and Doug Ducey, the popular Republican Governor, who refused to reverse the Arizona election result, was passed. All three laughed it off as did the bulk of the Arizona electorate. The Arizona commercial sector acted in sync with Linkedin CEO Giuliano who claimed that, “ They all know the truth…. I can’t remember a time when there was something as serious as this that compelled  commerce to speak so strongly about what was going on in a political party”.

The ultimate proof that something is seriously amiss in Arizona is that ten thousand card carrying members of the Republican Party have taken the trouble to hand them in and resign from the Party, since January 6,

THE CASE FOR TRUMP WANNABES TO ASSUME HIS MANTLE

So they are lining up to take the mantle of loser Trump. If anyone of them were to be successful they are taking on some one who let loose a mob who erected a gallows to hang his most loyal supporter Vice President Mike Pence. Cruz forgets the depths Trump sunk to in the 2016 Republican Primaries to eliminate him accusing his father of being part of the cabal that assassinated Kennedy and calling his wife a bag. Hawley is too wet by the ears to realize that Trump will eat him up alive. With regard to Rand Paul, Trump claimed that, “He shouldn’t even be on this stage”. Marco Rubio prophesied  that the Republican Party would be confined to the wilderness if they elected Trump. (He was right but only four years too early).Other newer wannabe candidates such as Senators Tom Cotton and Mike Lee and Governors Abbott and De Santis will be annihilated as well. 

Donald Trump has made it quite clear that he would like to run in 2024. If he does no wannabe is going to beat him. However he faces several legal challenges and may not be able to take up the mantle.This doesn’t mean that any wannabe has a chance. Trump has narrowed the field to three contenders - Ivanka, Don Jnr. and Eric.  

TRUMP’S SECOND IMPEACHMENT

The writing on the wall is that there are nowhere near the seventeen Republican votes needed to convict Trump in the Senate. The consensus is that the cop out will be procedural - you cannot convict anyone who is no longer in Office which on its face is nonsense. ( A motion by Rand Paul that there should be no trial because of this was supported by forty - five of the fifty Republicans). Trump is getting away with, as he forecast, murder on Fifth Avenue, two weeks after moving to Florida. This collusion really makes these Senators accessories after the fact in this insurrection. They have not only seen the tapes they were witnesses and victims of the crime. 

You have to really be spineless and candidates for profiles in cowardice to back a totalitarian seditious monster so that you won’t be primaried. Trump’s major political involvement at the moment is to seek revenge on those who didn’t vote to overturn the election results or opted for his impeachment. No one can anymore argue that he will change with the Office - he didn’t, he has just become drunk with power and ruthlessness. He rallied the mob to hunt down his most obsequious sycophantic loyal follower, Mike Pence his Vice President. The latter stood by him through thick and thin. Even when Trump childishly walked off the set while being interviewed by Leslie Stahl of Sixty Minutes, Mike Pence attempted there and then to normalize his response. His reward for five years loyalty and giving the Presidency a modicum of respectability was to sic his cult on him in such an unambiguous fashion that they erected a gallows and shouted in the inner sanctum of the First Branch of Government, “Hang Pence, Hang Pence”.

The good news, if there can be in this sordid chapter of Trumpian history, is that public opinion will play a large part in the waverers decision on deciding to convict. Every channel will have a minute by minute showing of the proceedings. It will not be a drawn out complicated affair like the last one. The Democrat House Managers are going to present a video to illustrate their case. If it is put together like the virtual Democratic National Convention and the Inaugural show it will be compelling. The audience will not be much taken in by arcane arguments that Trump is not guilty because he is in his Mar- A - Lago bunker. 

Mitch McConnell should show some leadership for heavens sake. He is the de facto leader of the party. He initially committed himself to condemning Trump’s culpability so after his slimy career he could go out in a blaze of glory cause he knows what is at stake - totalitarianism versus democracy. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The Democrats are in control of all three branches in Government and Biden so far is getting increasing numbers on approval of his Presidency.

The Senate picture does not look good for the GOP in 2022 with Rob Portman’s and Patrick Toomey resignations. Particularly the latter who is from Pennsylvania which Biden triumphed by nearly a million votes.

The FBI are not constrained in getting to the bottom of the insurrection including investigating the President. In the process they will decapitate the illegal militias by consigning their leadership tp jail. Even though Michael Cohen, Trump's former lawyer is convinced Trump signed secret pardons for himself and the family there are enough State cases to put him away for a long time.

The Republic Party’s path to salvation begins by convicting Trump, then dusting off their 2012 report which concluded that they had to appeal to the minorities in this country if they wanted to remain competitive. None of the latter are likely. This past four years they have gone backwards in a manner never dreamed of. They have backed a totalitarian boor who believes, like the Confederacy, that it is ok to illegally and or violently assume power. They are continuing to back him and by so doing will continue to lose support. The only strategy the Republicans are executing to win is introducing methodologies that restrict the minority vote - a policy they have employed since the nineteenth century. 

BIDEN’S AMERICA

In a peaceful transfer of power unthinkable just two weeks ago when democracy was threatened by the invasion of the Capitol by white supremacist domestic terrorists, the future is no longer what it used to be. The whole political scene has been shaken up with Biden appealing for unity, Trump’s position weakening and McConnell emerging as crucial to POTUS 46’s agenda.The central question behind Trump’s rise to power is, - are only those with white skins American? This core belief was accompanied by his desperate attempts to remain in power which resulted in a threat to the constitution.

Biden in his inaugural speech was vintage authentic Biden. He emphasized unity, truth instead of lies, transparency and a message of hope as he faced four domestic crises - the pandemic, the economic crisis, climate change and racial inequity, not to mention reestablishing America’s reputation in the world and reconnecting with their allies. 

THE AFTERMATH AFTER THE INSURRECTION 

The major sequelae following the storming of the Capitol were:  Biden who was not starry eyed about the divisions in the country emphasized that their can be differences without rage; McConnell and Trump are now in open warfare symbolizing the fight for the Republican Party’s soul; Several members of the white supremacist militia groups, particularly Q,Anon and The Proud Boys and to a lesser extent the Oath Keepers, America First and the Three percenters, believe Trump has sold them out; The FBI, who had previously claimed that domestic terrorism was the major threat to the country, have opened three hundred dockets for those who had been involved in the attempted insurrection of the American Government; Trump, facing impeachment and a nightmare of legal problems, vanished from sight for the moment promising to return in one form or another as his “movement” had just begun and finally, January 20, 2021 was a day of firsts for elected government officers which in a way epitomized the political issue facing the nation as to “Who is an American?”.

THE FIRSTS -  WHO IS AMERICAN?

Biden’s cabinet as well as the activity on Inaugural Day illustrated the talented and diverse group who are part and parcel of who constitutes the American population. First and foremost is his Vice President Kamala Harris the first women of color, both characteristics firsts, to be elected to national office. She then went to the Senate to swear in the first Latino Senator from California, whose population is forty percent from that national group. She followed with the pair of Senators from Georgia, Pastor Warnock, the first African American Georgian Senator, who preaches in Martin Luther King’s Church, and Jon Ossoff, the first Jewish Georgian Senator whose work with African American activists and parliamentarians was on record. What was amazing was that these two unashamed liberals won in a red state, where when Democrats win, their credentials are right of center.  

POTUS 46’s cabinet proved what he said it would be, “The most diverse cabinet in history” and would look like America. There were three firsts - sixty percent were women, fifty percent were citizens of color and twenty percent were first generation Americans. Most notable among these selections were the Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the first African American to hold this position, Lavier Becerra, the first Latino to lead the Health and Human Services portfolio, Peter Buttigieg the first openly gay member of an American Cabinet, Jennifer Granholm the first Canadian born member of an American cabinet, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, the first native American, the double first - Alexandro Mayorkas an immigrant and the first Latino to be nominated as Homeland Secretary, Janet Yellen the first woman Secretary of Treasury and the first female Director of national intelligence, Avril Haines.

Trump had over seventy percent of his cabinet in the first hundred days who were white and male and in his revolving door tenure it never improved. 

Not to forget the first American Youth Poet Laureate and the youngest person ever to address an Inauguration, Amanda Gorman a young African woman. Her poem “The Hill We Climb” was nothing of short of genius. To quote from the beginnings and ends of her hopeful and generous poem:

“Somehow we’ve weathered and witnessed

a nation that isn’t broke,

but is simply unfinished

We are the successors of a country and a time

Where asking Black girl

descended from slaves and raised by a single mother

can dream of becoming president

only to find herself reciting for one….

But while democracy can be periodically delayed

It can never be permanently defeated……..

We will rise from the lake-rimmed cities of the midwestern states

we will rise from the sunbaked south

We will rebuild, reconcile and recover

every nook of our nation

every corner called our country

our people diverse and beautiful will emerge,

battered and beautiful

When day comes we step out of the shade…….”

The personnel appointed and associated with the Biden regime versus those of Trump’s is a reflection for who is an American and who is not. What Trump really meant with his slogan Make America Great Again versus those of Biden’s - The Battle for the Soul of America and Unite for a Better America is let us keep America white versus Biden’s melting pot that America is and will become even more in the years to come.

PRESIDENT BIDEN AND AMERICA

Biden has been consistent from the day he announced his candidature which was precipitated by Trump, when he all but backed domestic white supremacist domestic terrorists in Charlottesville Virginia. The Covid disaster that has killed four hundred thousand Americans has been his top priority and the Unity of Americans his goal. In fact that was the theme of his speech. It was code for a celebration of the multicultural multinational and multiethnic nation that America is versus the hearkening back to the days when whites were in total control of politics, economics, the professions and culture. Those were days when America’s immigrants were the poor or oppressed who were the whites of Europe, a situation which prevailed for centuries. But whether they were the Irish, Italians, Germans, Scandinavians or Jews from pogroms and in the late twentieth century the East Europeans and the Russians they all had a rough time of it even though of a different scale than the browns, as illustrated by Trump who defamed the Mexicans immigrants as being “Drug Dealers, criminals and rapists”.

Even Trump recognized that the American success can be largely attributed to immigrants but the Norwegians, (white), that the ex POTUS invited, like the rest of Europe, (white) and large parts of South East Asia no longer have “The Tired, Poor, Huddled Masses, Wretched Refuse and Homeless, Yearning to be free” populations.  It is now the brown races that fall into that category. There are eleven million that are here illegally, most of whom are fully integrated. Without them - Mar - a - Lago and Trump’s properties couldn’t run not to mention the rest of the American economy. 

Biden has a whole package including legislation to deal with these problems including coping with the cruel mess Trump caused at the border 

BIDEN WITH COVID AND THE  ECONOMY

It is a fair characterization to label the POTUS’S approach to Covid and the economic recession in its wake as being managed on a war footing basis. With a chief Covid coordinator reporting to him, the decision to utilize the Defense Production Act, an active committee and a “liberated” Dr. Fauci it is all systems go. Biden has underpromised on producing a hundred million vaccines in his first hundred days. This is his number one priority. Covid management will serve as a metaphor for comparing Trump’s Presidency versus that of Biden.

Biden’s belief is that the economy’s future is totally dependent on the control of the pandemic and has put forward a two billion dollar package in an attempt to save citizens from poverty, resuscitate businesses and stamp out Covid. To effect this is he is going to need the collaboration of McConnell.

MCCONNELL v TRUMP AND THE WHITE SUPREMACISTS

Notwithstanding the fact that McConnell is no longer the majority leader of the Senate he is to a certain extent even more influential to the future of America than he was in the Trump era. There he was appointing conservative judges, lowering taxes for the rich and otherwise holding his nose at Trump’s unpresidential behavior and actions. Now he is reflecting on the destruction that his unholy alliance with Trump has wrought and the future of the GOP. As Jay H. Ell has written these past few weeks he has noted the evolving anger of McConnell’s attitude to Trump.

When the Senate returned from recess following its storming by terrorist insurgents, McConnell opened the proceedings as follows: “The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the President and other prominent people. And they tried to stop  a specific proceeding which they did not like. And they tried to use fear and violence….”.McConnell seems pretty close to voting for Trump’s impeachment. While garnering seventeen Republican votes is a stretch, McConnell is the only Republican who could effect it 

 Lindsey Graham who was Trump’s day to day enabler, probably even letting him win at golf, has warned against impeachment. His argument being that the majority of the Republican voters back Trump. What Graham ignores is that number is receding and when the full extent of Trump “using” these terrorists as his army is revealed it will decrease even more. The latter circumstance added to his legal woes will not increase his popularity. In addition his throwing the rioters, whom he had sent and promised to follow, under the bus is not going to endear him to his followers. He pardoned his cronies and those who could spill the beans on him but not those he incited to do his dirty work. 

The Q,Anon fantasy has been smashed partly by the former POTUS. He is still not President and the FBI didn’t march in and arrest Biden and his followers as their narrative predicted. The white supremacist blog sites indicate their feeling of betrayal and some even coming to the reality that they have been had.The movements will take a long time to recover as their leadership will all be locked up as they were the ones smashing the “People’s House”, wanting to hang Pence and kill Nancy Pelosi. Also as each day passes and Biden does what he promises the Republican Party will lose even more adherents. Trump is already talking of forming a new party, “The Patriot Party”.

The idea floated, particularly on Fox News, that if Biden is serious about unity he should stop the impeachment is disingenuous. The agencies and individuals that were screaming the loudest that Biden “stole” the election are in the forefront of this cry. However history has shown that there must be accountability and justice. 

With respect to Lincoln in his second inaugural speech, “With malice to none and charity to all …….to bind up the nation’s wounds…” followed by his proclamation of forgiveness resulted in no justice to the defeated who had started the Civil War. Mandela turned the world upside down for unity but there was the Truth and Reconciliation Commission that decided if there was not true remorse and or crimes that were too outrageous to grant amnesty, such as murder, assault and crimes against human rights. Those that didn’t deserve amnesty stood trial. The Commission was held under the dictum that “taking orders” was no defense for atrocities.This should apply to Trump downwards and to all who breached the Capitol and those that aided and abetted them. Otherwise healing cannot take place. 

IMPEACHMENT

It is interesting to note McConnell and the new leader of the Senate Chuck Schumer now cooperate as there has never ever been any love lost between the two. The impeachment trial could start anytime as it should begin within twenty - four hours of Pelosi bringing the Article of Impeachment to the Senate. That would suit neither the Republicans or Democrats. Trump in particular would be further up the creek because he has just finally found a legal counsel that will represent him. McConnell asked for a delay till February 18 and Schumer compromised till February 8. This gives Biden an opportunity to get his Cabinet ratified, possibly his Covid package debated and for the House Managers to collect further material to build their case. It has been revealed, for example, who further has been involved. The latest revelation shows that Trump tried to force the acting attorney general to get the Georgia results reversed.

Butch Bowers Trump’s newest attorney has a good reputation in South  Carolina and was found by Lindsey Graham. He has argued on behalf of South Carolina Republicans with similar problems. Whether he can find a table full of colleagues to share the load remains to be seen. Just a word of advice to Trump’s newest best lawyer, get a fat retainer before starting as your client is not very good at paying his bills.

At the end of the day public opinion may well shape where wavering Senate Republicans vote on impeachment.

TO END WITH BIDEN

“…12 years ago, I was waiting at the train station in Wilmington for a black man to pick me up on our way to Washington, where we sworn in as President and Vice President of America. And here we are today, my family and I, about to return to Washington to meet a black woman to be sworn in as President and Vice President of the United States……Don’t tell me things can’t change they can they do….”

“……Today, on this January day, my whole soul is in this: Bringing America together, Uniting out people and uniting our nation. I ask every American to join me in this cause….”

“……..The story that tells, ages yet to come, that we answered the call of history. We met the moment. That democracy and hope, truth and justice, did not die on our watch but thrived. That our America secured liberty at home and stood again as a beacon to the world…”

MCCONNELL'S OR TRUMP’S REPUBLICAN PARTY?

To an audible sigh of relief by the majority of Americans, which sentiment was reinforced across the world, Joe Biden was constitutionally installed as the President elect of America on January 6, 2021.The event was hardly the boring formality of years gone by as it was shattered by a determined attempt to violently thwart the outcome. The mob Trump incited to attack the Capitol was to reinforce his objective for the Republicans acting in concert with Vice President Pence to reverse the results of a legitimate election and install him as President. It was an insane quixotic initiative from the word go as Pence had refused to act illegally and there was no way that the Senate would go along with the coup. 

Trump’s continuing defiance indicated that one way or another he and his family would endeavor to remain a force in American politics for the foreseeable future. He is now in open conflict with the most powerful Republican in Congress, Mitch McConnell. All of this left pundits wondering if the Republican Party would be able to contain the factions led by these two starkly different personalities with their beliefs on constitutional democracy and white supremacy.  

The immediate fallout of these unprecedented interventions was that Trump was forced to acknowledge that Biden was the President elect. In spite of his sudden conversion to reality he showed no sign of contrition or remorse for the havoc he had wreaked still maintaining that the election was rigged and that he was the lawful President. In fact anonymous sources stated that he regretted his concession. 

Events have really moved quickly since the abortive attempt at insurrection both politically and by force just about a week ago when thousands of Trump’s ragbag army stormed the capitol in a futile attempt to seize power and nearly a hundred and fifty Republican parliamentarians voted to reverse the constitutionally conducted 2020 Presidential election. The vote took place after President Trump had incited the insurrection and had done all in his power to alter a vote which had been sustained by the states and the courts. This behavior forced a reluctant Nancy Pelosi to move to remove this rogue President at the expense of denying the newly elected Democratic President Joseph Biden an unopposed stage to introduce his agenda. His Presidency would be adulterated by Trump’s persona looming large over his first hundred days. 

About to be minority leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell welcomed the impeachment of Trump which action would make it easier, it was reported, to remove him from the Republican Party. Jay H. Ell believes it is irrelevant whether Trump is removed from his office by the Senate or not as he and his children will still be a dominant force in American politics and at the moment they are in the leadership of the GOP not McConnell. 

MCCONNELL’S RATIONALE FOR AXING TRUMP

It has become patently obvious that the majority of the electorate which included a small but crucial section of the Republican party had rejected Trump. This was illustrated by the splitting of the tickets in the general election where Trump drew fewer votes than national GOP candidates down ballot. This had allowed Biden to become President. Not only did he lose the electoral college but also the popular vote by seven million. Trump’s intervention in the Georgia Senate run off election had seen two unlikely Democratic candidates triumph with a hundred and fifty thousand vote reversal in two months. McConnell and the Republicans had lost the Senate as a result. With the changing demographics and the prospect of the suburban Republicans permanently seeking a home outside the Party the seasoned Senator reckoned Trump had to go. In addition McConnell is some sort of traditionalist and constitutionalist and it was repugnant to see Trump in the name of his Party trash those values. For all his faults he is not a white supremacist either. 

McConnell could read the tea leaves with regard to the polls. Within a week of the insurrection the percentage of Americans wanting Trump to be removed from office jumped from forty to fifty - three percent and his approval rating from forty - six percent to below forty, (a Quinnipiac had it as low as thirty - three percent). What could follow would result in even more suburban defections from the Party. The Investigations into the riot could even include the President, Don Jnr, and Rudi Giuliani. Over a hundred and fifty invaders of America’s symbol of democracy had already been arrested and some would be charged with sedition. It did not need a legal genius that many of those would argue in mitigation that it was the Republican POTUS had spurred them on to do it. 

In the event that Trump himself could be charged and the Republicans had cleared him McConnell could forget the suburban vote forever. In addition one of the leaders of “Stop the Steal” had named three Republican House members, one of whom spoke at Trump’s incendiary rally that they had colluded with and who had shown the rioters the layout of the Capitol the day before. A Democratic Senator had reported, on January 5, to the Sergeant at Arms that there had been groups that had been taken around the Capitol. The reason for her concern was that tours were illegal because of Covid restrictions. There was further circumstantial evidence that these were reconnaisance tours as a number of Democratic representatives were amazed how the invaders found offices well off the beaten path.  

Dozens of major companies have already signified they were withdrawing donations to those Republicans who had voted against the ratifying of the Electoral College outcome. Earlier a hundred and seventy major companies had written an open letter calling for Congress to accept Biden. Trump himself was hit hard with business contracts being lost the unkindest cut of them all is that one of the four major championships that had been scheduled for one of his golf courses in 2022 has been withdrawn because the Professional Golf Association claimed that “…it was bad for their brand.” McConnell realized that corporation money was the lifeblood of the Republican Party and with key donors such as the co founder of Home Depot diverting his largesse to Biden and the Koch brothers signaling that they were no longer supporting partisan politics the future would be bleak if the Party didn’t get shot off Trump

McConnell, after leaking his support for impeachment itself, in an e mail to his caucus stated that he has not yet decided whether he will vote to throw Trump out of office and would listen to the legal arguments first. He also said that the Senate should focus on the transfer of power and the inauguration rather than impeachment prior to Biden Presidency.  This would also give him a number of days to see how this would all play.

TRUMP’S CLAIM TO THE PARTY

Trump has on the face of it a colossal personal following. He may have lost the election but nearly seventy five million Americans voted for him. Even now only about sixteen percent of Republicans are in favor of his ouster. McConnell could argue that the Republicans couldn’t win with him but they are even less likely to win without him. (Senators Cruz and Hawley would obviously agree with that assessment). Even a large percentage of the Republican caucus in the House voted against impeachment 

Whichever way this House vote is viewed, a hundred and ninety - seven of two hundred and seven House Republicans present voted not to impeach Trump. Whatever their supposed rationale was, they obviously feel that the majority of their electorate still support Trump. The House Congresspeople are closest to the ground as they are elected every two years.

While the controversy was raging in Washington this week the Republic National Committee held its elections and both the Chairperson and CoChairman are a hundred percent in the Trump camp. That means the whole Republican infrastructure on the ground is still pro Trump. That also includes their money which added to the over two hundred million that Trump has in his campaign fund equals to a tremendous amount of leverage. There was very little anti Trump sentiment reported from that meeting where the Chairperson Rhona McDaniel hailed Trump as still being the leader of the Party. Nikki Haley claimed that Trump’s incendiary speech on January 6 was wrong. She had also criticized his post Charlottesville statement. She is considered a lively contender for the 2024 Republican nomination.

Trump has all but officially declared himself a candidate for 2024. However his position is dicey to say the least but what about Ivanka or Don Jnr. or Eric all of whom have political ambitions and could easily inherit his base? It is the base that matters in the Primary. 

For the moment Trump is the leader. He will have to cope with the fact that denied Twitter and social media, with Biden and McConnell using up most of the oxygen in the room he is going to battle for exposure, other than might be provided by his legal and probable financial woes.

NEITHER TRUMP’S OR MCCONNELL’S GOP?

As the above analysis may imply the two factions cannot live together in the same party forever. While four years in politics is a lifetime the Republican party even without this split would be hard put, with the demographics worsening against them each day, to win another Presidency. They have lost the popular vote five of seven of the last Presidential elections. Trump didn’t deliver during his four years what he promised the MidWest and hence Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin went back to the Democrats. In addition the much awaited breakthrough by the Democrats occurred in Arizona and Georgia. The minority vote is being increasingly mobilized under Stacey Adam’s lead. It is not only in Georgia with her Georgia Project but throughout the country with her organization Fair Fight that she has registered and mobilized the African American vote. As this organization progresses more and more of the South will become competitive. This does not harbor well for a white supremacist like Trump.

In 2012 when Romney lost to Obama the then Chairman of the Republican National Committee Reince Priebus saw the writing on the wall in terms of the GOP surviving with the changing demographics. A lengthy “Post Mortem” report was produced the conclusion of which was that the Republicans had to meet the needs of the minorities if they were going to survive. Trump proved them wrong once but a repeat is unlikely with the demographics worsening each day. 

In addition the Lincoln Project and Republicans for Biden are going to continue their onslaught on their old party. It is fair to say that the majority of the thinkers, policy makers and intellectuals of the party have left for these two organizations. They will be focussing particularly on the 2022 Senate elections which again favor the Democrats 

So the GOP may have to split like its predecessor the Whig party did in the mid nineteenth century but even that won’t help unless they can come up with more than populism on the one hand and small government and low taxes on the other. It is ironic that the successor party to the Whigs, The Republican Party, was the party of Lincoln and now of Trump.

BIDEN’S TASK

Biden has to deliver and capitalize on his control of both the Senate and the House. With such a slim majority Biden cannot just pass anything he likes. The immediate agenda is assured - the quick ratification of his cabinet and administration and a Covid relief package which McConnell denied them last time. Also Biden must organize the Covid response effectively as well as get an infrastructure program on its way to provide employment.

AT THE END OF THE DAY

The American situation is tense. There are twenty - thousand National Guards in Washington which looks like the Green Zone in Baghdad. Under Biden the Justice Department and FBI will not be hindered in going after the domestic terrorists.

Whether Trump is convicted in the Senate or not depends on how McConnell reads the fall out from the failed coup and the impact on the Republican brand financially and otherwise as a result of the Trump episode.

Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Schumer must not allow the impeachment proceedings to drown out President Biden’s first hundred days. 

The Republican Party’s future hangs in the balance as the fight for its soul continues. For the moment the Trump family has the upper hand but they are losing support all round rapidly. They also have to navigate their many legal challenges as well as the fall out from the revolting sedition episode. 

At the end of the day perhaps the Trumps will form a Party simply to support authoritarianism and white supremacy. 

Meanwhile Biden is getting  ahead of the game by acting like a real President in attacking the Covid pandemic crisis and addressing the nation. 

TRUMP v MCCONNELL CONTINUED AS INCOMPETENT SHAMBOLIC COUP COLLAPSES

 

America, and to its embarrassment, the world, witnessed a half baked coup engineered by a President who couldn’t organize a meeting in the WhiteHouse without half the participants catching Covid let alone a governmental takeover. His pathetic attempt spanned two months following his ignominious defeat in November. He began by riling up his cult with ever expanding conspiracy stories “proving” that he won the Presidential election. Coupled with that simplistic tactic he futilely pressured states to change their outcomes while initiating an unprecedented number of frivolous legal challenges to the election It was to culminate with the physical assault on “The People’s House” to spur the Congressmen to overthrow Biden's democratic victory.  

THE COUP PLAN 

When all the initial moves failed he banked on settling the issue on January 6, 2021, the day that Congress formally accepted the electoral college votes. He would get legislative supporters to challenge the electors with the help of his undyingly loyal Vice President assisting by declaring the Biden electors invalid. His madcap House of Representative organizers, to whom he granted Freedom Awards so they could join Mandela, King, Mother Theresa, Hank Aron and Frank Sinatra, had lined up more than half the House Republicans to decertify. The Senate not so much, the majority of the caucus following the lead of Majority Leader McConnell who had become the chief political stumbling block to Trump’s objective in becoming the Republican Party. McConnell had thumped Trump on two major legislative initiatives recently - Trump’s move to increase the Covid direct payment to $2000 and by overriding his veto on the defense budget. The Senate majority leader had also made it quite clear that he did not want the Senate involved in challenging the electoral college.

Trump’s coup de grace would be his white supremacists. He had spent weeks on social media urging them to attend a protest which he would address in front of the WhiteHouse on the day of the certification of Biden’s electoral victory. The “very stable genius” would incite violence at the Capitol where he instructed his hooligans to go. In his fevered fantasy he believed this show of strength with his ragbag army would seal the deal with the reluctant Congressmen to acknowledge the new leader. Belatedly he saw an opportunity to get involved in the Senate race in Georgia where he had surprisingly lost by eleven thousand seven hundred and seventy nine votes. The expected positive outcome for the Republicans which by his participation he could claim credit for and strengthen his position as the GOP strongman.

THE POLITICS OF POPULISM

Liberal democracy is facing challenges throughout the Western World. The term “populism" has been loosely used to identify this deviation from the form of government that post war triumphed over fascism and communism. In common is the authoritarian notion that only the leader alone can solve the countries problems, and the normal democratic process can be dispensed with. The leader to project such a grandiose persona had to exude charisma and promise to return to a fantasized past. Without going into too much detail populism differs from country to country where it has prevailed. In America Donald Trump hijacked the Republican Party and attempted to run it like a mob operation. 

In spite of the fact that populists like dictators only needed to win one election to guarantee a life long tenure The Don lost his follow up election both in the popular vote and the electoral college. The latter was the American Founding Fathers compromise to entice the smaller states to become part of the Federation. However the Founding Fathers embraced many other concepts that would make it harder for a President to subvert the will of “We the People” the very basis of what was to evolve into a modern day Liberal Democracy.

TRUMP ATTEMPTS TO JOIN THE POPULIST CLUB AND SETS HIS PLAN INTO MOTION

However like good old totalitarians Trump saw no reason to accept the will of “We the People” and refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 election. He initially mounted a two pronged attack to subvert the outcome. The first was to overwhelm the Judiciary with complaints about the results in the key states that he had lost. He had appointed many of the Judges where his arguments would be presented. It was a tactic that had worked so well when he was just a small time mobster where the entities he bullied faded away at the sheer costs of defending themselves in litigation that would go on forever. In this endeavor there was no such luck and Trump’s non stop sixty attempts to persuade the Judiciary to declare him the winner was a total disaster. To his amazement his appointments to the Bench did not turn out to be a transactional process  - those that had received his backing didn’t deliver. Even the Supreme Court Judges whom he gave White House Covid receptions snubbed him. Recently a Federal Judge reported a few of his lawyers to the Bar Association for using the Courts to make a political point with Trump’s frivolous law suits. 

The other tactic was to lean heavily on the Republican office bearers in the swing states that he had lost also to simply change the result and declare him the winner. He was The Leader and the officials had seen how he had terminated the careers of those that had crossed him just once.

With the failure of these maneuvers which Trump was solely engaged in at the expense of managing a raging epidemic that was closing in killing nearly four hundred thousand Americans Trump launched a final bid to secure the Presidency. Starting on Saturday January 2, 2021 and ending on Wednesday January 6, he would embark on a crusade which if nothing else would smash the Republican Party permanently. All this in the deluded belief that this would gain him the Presidency. 

Georgia suddenly was on Trump’s mind.

His objective in Georgia was belatedly to throw his full weight behind the two Republican Senatorial candidates which would allow him to argue that it was his intervention that retained the Senate for the Republicans. He had neglected this race for months as a result of his feud with the Republican Governor who wouldn’t alter the November outcome in his favor.

Involving himself in the Georgia encounter would be a very smart move as the two Senators had gained nearly a hundred thousand votes more than the Democrats in the November Senate election. He would claim the credit when they won. However, first he would try and pressure, persuade, cajole and ultimately threaten the Republican State Secretary to “recalculate” and find him 11,780 votes. This would declare him the winner which “everyone knew he had won by hundreds of thousands of votes”. Trump’s cajoling and threatening call was witnessed and taped. The Republican Governor, Secretary of State and head of the Electoral Count stood firm against the threats and smears.

Next move was to have a mass rally in Georgia. The need was in North West Georgia which was his territory so as to drive out his base. Once again he devoted his rant to his own victimhood and attacked the local Republican officials. Trump’s interventions proved to be a disaster motivating the African American vote to come out in record numbers and prove Stacey Adams, who he attacked in his rally, correct. The Republicans vote underperformed in spite of his MAGA rally. He had left the local candidates in such a mess caught between supporting his denial that he had lost the election, attacking their local leaders and having them swear loyalty to him. 

The upshot is that a miracle occurred in Georgia within the space of two months with a hundred thousand deficit turned into a forty thousand victory for the Democrats and changing the whole future of the Biden Administration. More significantly in the Republican shambles, McConnell after a fourteen year reign as the anchor of Republican politics was now minority leader.

January 6, 2021 - a day that will go down in infamy in American history

The next day would be Trump’s big day, his most ardent loyalists who had been enjoined, for months to “stand by” and “be wild" would be coming to Washington for the denouement of his coup effort. He and Rudi addressed them at the WhiteHouse all but advocating them to burn the Capitol down. 

Trump must have had some misgivings because he had relied on his obsequious Vice President Mike Pence to assist in the coup declaring certain slates of electors invalid but the earlier indications proved that Pence would just fulfill his ceremonial role as Chairman of the proceedings. Trump in spite of being forewarned in painful detail that this was Pence’s position had hopes that he would repent. (According to WhiteHouse officials Trump spent the rest of the day cursing Pence who had stabbed him in the back. He had resuscitated the nonentity’s career by making him Vice President and he was giving him no loyalty in return). 

Meanwhile back at the Capitol the beginning of a what was looking like a long day and night and maybe another day began. The first of what could turn out to be three hourly chunks in time in the Capitol had begun with both members of the House and a Republican Senator objecting to awarding the electoral votes of Arizona to Biden. With thirteen Senators and up to a hundred and forty House Republicans in line to support the objections to the outcome of a Democratic election it was as much a reflection of an internal battle in the Republican Party whether to continue with liberal democracy or support dictatorial populism as it was a formal confirmation of Joe Biden’s electoral victory.

The first up to speak, in an intervention dripping with emotion, was the outgoing Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell who pleaded for democracy to the packed hushed Senate: 

“Iv’e served thirty - six years in the Senate. This will be the most important vote Iv’e ever cast. The voters, the courts and the states have spoken. If we overrule them, it will damage our Republic forever. If this election was overturned by allegations from the losing side, our democracy would enter a death spiral. It would be unfair and wrong to disenfranchise American voters and overrule the courts, and the states, on this extraordinary thin basis.

Self-government, my colleagues, requires a shared commitment to the truth. And a shared respect for the ground rules of our system. We cannot keep drifting apart into two separate tribes with a separate set of facts and separate realities……. I will vote to respect the people’s decision and defend our system of government as we know it.”

McConnell was leading the charge for the GOP to stick to liberal democracy. Then followed the plea by Senator Cruz, who is considered the most accomplished debater in the Senate, for populism and to override the Democratic process. He spoke in prose as opposed to the poetry of his leader. He like Senator Hawley were positioning themselves for 2024. They reckoned that without the Trump following they had no chance to win the Republican Party nomination.

 

Not much else happened till it all hit the fan. The Capitol had been invaded by the thugs Trump and Giuliani had sent down Pennsylvania Avenue. The American legislators were hustled to safety.

The riot mob crashes the Capitol before the debate continues.

Much of what followed has been seen again and again on screens across the world as the inner sanctum of America’s symbol of democracy was polluted by thugs, some armed, wearing all manner of Trump paraphernalia as they raged through the building smashing, looting and desecrating whatever was in the way. It took several hours to clear the buildings of the riff raff. Trump finally reacted many hours into the fracas telling them to leave, but adding a rationale for their behavior and  the message, “We love you”. 

It was a far more sober set of legislators, especially in the U.S. Senate, that returned to finish the day’s business. The fall off of Trump support was not so marked in the House. McConnell defiantly exclaimed, “We will not be kept out of this chamber by thugs, mobs or threats……We will discharge our duty under the Constitution for our nation”. 

 The original obstructionist agenda of objecting to at least a half dozen state electors was abandoned so everyone could go home at 3. 30 am. However there was time for seven of the Senators in the light of what they had just witnessed to withdraw their support of negating the 2020 election. However Cruz and Hawley both could claim in their Presidential bids that they backed Trump to the hilt.  

THE OUTCOME OF THIS TRAVESTY

What is notable is that not only has McConnell at this late stage not acknowledged his complicity in what ultimately led to this outrageous attack, but neither has Lindsey Graham who had his Damascus moment on the issue of negating the voice of the people nor has the other chief enabler Bill Barr, who attacked Trump for his instigation of violence. In that vein there have been a number of resignations from the Trump Administration including two cabinet ministers one of whom is the wife of Mitch McConnell.

Trump belatedly acknowledged that evening that a new administration will be inaugurated on January 20, 2021. He threw under the bus the rioters who he had incited to go to the Capitol, who he had promised to go with them and tweeted, “You are very special people. We love you”. According to WhiteHouse reports he watched the carnage on TV with what appeared to be excitement making no move till much later tweeting his supporters to go home and that he understood their frustration.

Five people are dead as a result of this farcical attempt to cement a coup. One of them is a Capitol policeman another a woman rioter and three who supposedly died from other causes. 

There have been calls for impeachment, axing Trump via the twenty fifth amendment where the Cabinet declares him unfit for office and for his resignation - the latter notably includes Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal. Pelosi is apparently committed to impeachment if Pence doesn't initiate the twenty fifth amendment. 

The DC Federal Attorney General is investigating the insurrection and will charge any including the President who were responsible for this act of sedition.

THE LAPSE IN SECURITY

It is outrageous that the Capitol should have been left so vulnerable when this event had been publicized for months. The Capitol Police and the Sergeant at Arms of both chambers, who are immediately responsible for security, have resigned as a result. However the Mayor controls the safety of the City so what was she doing? She controls the City Police. Where were they? There are so many stories about why the National Guard wasn’t there. The New York Times claims that the Mayor did call for them. Larry Hogan the Republican Governor Maryland which is as close as a suburb of DC claims he couldn’t get permission to send them for hours. Trump claims he gave permission and reports say it was Pence…. The full story maybe more sinister than it appears at the moment.

POLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE: POPULISM V DEMOCRACY

Trump is still the most influential figure in the Republican Party but is markedly weakened. The question remains will the party embrace the populism that he spawned or will they return to democracy as fought for by McConnell? There were close on a hundred and forty Republicans in the House and seven in the Senate that still voted for a coup. For the moment Liberal Democracy has triumphed and if Biden can deliver it may be reestablished. For whatever reasons he has to convince a sizable number of Americans that electing a strongman, who alone can fix all the woes and dispense with democracy is a pathway to hell.