At this point in time there is little doubt Trump’s control of the Republican Party is turning it into one that opposes democracy. Internal opposition folds as more and more of the Party join him in his relentless undemocratic crusade to overturn a democratic election. Trump is irreversibly committed never to concede that he is a loser hence he is manipulating the GOP to reverse his personal electoral loss by frank totalitarianism. His fight is on two broad fronts; politically and legally. With regard to the Republican citizenry seventy - two percent believe that the 2020 results are “inaccurate” thereby giving him clout to morph the Party’s principle agenda to retaining him as the President, while ignoring the more urgent issues such as the Georgia Senate elections and Covid management which he was never much interested in. The question is how long can Trump's dominance last?
THE LEGAL FIGHT - TRUMP’S “BIG ONE”
On the legal front Trump’s efforts are maniacal. There was a rainstorm of litigation, mostly bordering on the frivolous, challenging the results of the election that Trump had warned his red capped faithful that were going to be “rigged”. (The POTUS ignored the “rigged’ elections in the States that he actually won). The judicial outcomes of the sixty lawsuits before the “Big One” in the Supreme Court were consistent - they were ridiculed and met with judicial amazement and anger. In sixty appearances before the bench there was only minor one that didn’t end there and then.
Then followed the “Big One”. a Supreme Court submission from the Texas Attorney General to nullify the votes of Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump persuaded seventeen other Republican State Attorney Generals to join in as well as canvassing every GOP Congressperson to sign on. The pressure resulted in a one hundred and twenty - six Republican members of the House to sign onto Trump’s and the Texas AG’s submission. (The legislators' complicity in spite of the fact that they won in the same “rigged” elections that Trump lost in).
There was not one constitutional lawyer of any standing that found an ounce of merit in Trump’s appeal to the Supreme Court which in effect asked them to overturn an election discarding tens of millions of votes with no legal or factual basis offered - just conspiracy theories and illogical suppositions.
What is outside Trump’s comprehension is the inability of others to see all dealings in life as transactional. He appointed three Judges and they owe him. What he doesn’t understands is that for the most part judges take their roles seriously. Their world views may be distorted but that is the framework they base their decisions on. As strict Constitutionalists there was no way they could interpret that a State can dictate to another how to run its internal affairs. Nor was there any legal basis of the “standing” of the complainants. Nor did they outline or prove any illegality which violates the Constitution. So it was never a question whether Trump’s “Big One” would be turfed out it was when and what would be the ruling if any other than dismissal.
So not surprisingly within a few days the unanimous ruling of the Court was that the complainant had “no standing” to even have the case listed. Two judges stated that they would have listed the case but they would have ruled against every submission. Trump states there are still legal challenges to follow!. Needless to say he did not hide his anger towards the Supreme Court Justices. Just like space is infinity so is Trump’s tweeting.
TRUMP’S DEFIANCE OF POLITICAL AND CONSTITUTIONAL REALITY
While the legal fight fruitlessly carries on Trump is determined to hang onto power and defy every Constitutional norm in the process. He obviously feels he is in a dominant enough position to call the shots in the GOP. The question is how long can the Republican leadership allow this to carry on for. He dictates the agenda demanding loyalty to him before party and country. The story is all about him not Georgia where he has sown confusion amongst the Republicans already. Sooner or later and it better be sooner as it is already getting too late McConnell and McCarthy will have to step in or the Trump take over will be complete.
On December 8 which is known as ‘Safe Harbor” day when the electoral results are locked in by State Legislatures, Trump was asked why he hadn’t invited Biden’s transitional Covid team, to his discussions on the vaccine distribution and administration. He replied that, “The next administration has not yet been determined!” More sinister are the growing threats of violence law makers and election officials are being subjected to. The latter not being condemned by the Republican establishment let alone Trump himself. On the contrary, he has been accused of provoking them. All this is becoming more and more closely meeting the definition of an attempted coup d’etat.
GOP HAVE TO ACT - THEIR CONSTITUENCIES ARE AT LOGGERHEADS IN THE MIDST OF GEORGIA’S MAKE OR BREAK ELECTION
The question remains how long can the GOP establishment allow this erratic state of affairs to continue where Trump and a few of his likeminded cronies lead the party and country on a merry dance. In this state of confusion they may well lose Georgia and the Senate.
As the late and lamented Grand Old Party splinters further apart into factions there are really only two constituencies that dominate for the moment - the base and Trump and his sycophantic inner circle. The others: the elected State Officials, State Legislatures, the Legislators on a national level and the Republican National Committee are important bit players as the drama unfolds on the national scene. But for practical purposes they are as impotent as the Party was while Joseph McCarthy and the Trumps’ former lawyer Roy Cohn on their own smashed the rule of law and due process ruining countless careers in the process.
Congressional Republicans
To begin with the Republicans in Congress would not even support a motion indirectly acknowledging Joseph Biden as the President elect. This on December 8 when all but Hawaii had registered their electors according to the popular vote. On December 14 the electoral College formerly tote up the score which will give Joe Biden 306 and Donald Trump 232. This decision is acknowledged on January 4, 2021 in Congress. Republicans are already making plans to challenge the electoral college decision, i. e. the results of the 2020 election.
The Congressional Republicans feel most vulnerable to Trump getting behind an opponent in a Primary so with notable exceptions they just keep quiet, A survey conducted by The Washington Post indicted that about ten percent of the GOP in the House of Representatives were prepared to admit, without their names being published, that they regarded Joe Biden as President Elect. Trump’s response was predictable. He couldn’t believe that there were that many RINOS, (Republicans in name only). in Congress. He wanted a list of their names. Thus far the Senate Republicans have not publicly agreed to go along with challenging of the election on January 4. However whichever you look at it, the behavior of the Republicans at the National level have not enhanced American democracy giving the green light for the base to become more and more angry.
Elected State Officials and State Legislatures.
The elected State Officials are the ones that have really stuck to their guns and Constitutional oaths. They have been the subject of abuse and pressure which have been on public display especially in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania - whether they were Republican or Democrat they have been the targets of threats of violence to them and their families. Some publicly swear their loyalty to Trump but that is irrelevant. However if Trump or totalitarianism are still around next Primary Time they need to seek different employment. The State Legislatures themselves are ambivalent but when push came to shove they ratified the electoral results in spite of sustained pressure from The Leader himself to declare him the winner.
The Base
This leaves the base which is made up of the evangelicals, the disgruntled blue collar workers and miners, the White Supremacists and militia types and the traditional Republicans who just could not bear to vote for a Democrat. They are either mesmerized, deluded or purely cynical. This is the mob that believed that Obama was born in Kenya and every other bit of fantasy that has been part of Trump’s free flowing consciousness, They have forgotten, that the coal mines haven’t reopened, the factories haven’t returned, the wall hasn’t been built, (presumably because Mexico hasn’t paid for it), that the “drained” swamp is overflowing with Trump allies, and that they supposedly would be “winning” so much that they would beg “Mr. President” to stop “winning”. Instead in Georgia he told them they and he were all “victims” and they swallowed it whole.
Trump told them to vote by mail in Georgia which was one of the arguments for telling the Supreme Court to chuck the whole election result out. Well at least the Evangelicals got their three judges who if he had his way he would chuck out as well a they have also stabbed him in the back. The very fact that after all that has happened the cult are still obsessed with him means unless you put antipsychotic drugs in their water they are not going to change anytime soon.
So can the GOP dump Trump even if they wanted to?
CAN TRUMP BE DUMPED AND WHY HE IS UNLIKELY TO WIN IN 2024
Donald is the de facto leader of the GOP. However secretly most of the Republican legislators will tell you, off the record, that they hate his guts. The Republican National Committee gently invited a number of prospective candidates to discuss the 2024 Presidential election and left him out. All they had to tell him, Jay H. Ell supposes, is that he cannot run for a third term.
The question is what can stop the Republican Party from becoming a totalitarian Party? It would be much easier if they were able to dump Trump but those policy makers, movers and shakers who opposed his take over bid are long gone and have joined the Lincoln Project, Republicans against Trump, Republicans for Biden or have become commentators on the networks. However, to prove how ambivalent the Republican legislators really are both Houses just passed the Defense Bill with veto proof majorities. Trump said he was dead against it and has vetoed it. The veto should now be overriden which will be the first time. This is war!
The good news for those still left in the Republican Party and want to save it is that Trump is clueless about how he would manage the Party in the four years running up to 2024. Trump acts best when he is responding to pressure - he is a better “victim” than he is a “winner”. So how he maps out a four year strategy while not in the presidency is not evident. The racists and militia groups will stick with him as they have no other home. His cult are not going to just let him fade away unless there is leadership challenging the Trump mumbo jumbo.. Much of his current position has been because the legislative representatives have either gone along with him or for the most part shut up.
Unless the Republican leadership make some move soon the Republican agenda between now and the inauguration will be speculation on Trump. - “Will he hold a massive inauguration of his own on January 20?, Will he scream at NATO? Will he cooperate with Biden on distribution on the vaccine? Will he pardon himself and who else? Or, “He told us Hunter Biden was a crook he just got the country wrong…….”. Georgia will just have to play second fiddle.
After Georgia, if Trump survives legal challenges and decides to run in 2024 it is likely that he will easily win the Republican nomination. All the Trump wannabes have no chance as he is the real deal and no one in the center has the following to take him on. Equally probably he won’t win the Presidency. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by three million votes and by seven million in 2020. Are his psychotic behaviors, lack of care in the Covid pandemic going to increase his popularity? Are the suburbanites likely to flock back to him in Phoenix, Denver, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Milwaukee because he is acting insanely now?
The Republicans better wake up to the fact that Trump is their problem and they better start screaming that the “Emperor has no clothes”.
TRUMP’S ALTERNATE REALITIES
Trump’s main delusion at the moment is that he won the election. He can carry on with that fantasy and prepare for the rigged election in 2024 or whatever grabs his attention whether it is his own TV Station or commandeering a new one now that FOX occasionally tells its viewers what is really going on. But remember the audience tired of him in his greatest role “The Apprentice”. Whatever happens he just won’t call it quits. He will find something new to grab their attention - maybe that Biden wasn’t born in Scranton and smoked pot with Clinton which Hunter imported illegally from China and Rudi can prove it!
There is one reality he cannot dodge forever - the growing death toll and morbidity from Covid. Nor can he escape the social and economic havoc that the pandemic has wreaked in its wake. As the virus spreads across the vast red inner America sparsely populated and hopelessly under doctored, some of the faithful that become victims will no longer be able to deny that it exists. As Biden becomes center stage with his efforts to mitigate, ameliorate and vaccinate some of Trump’s cult have to become disbelievers. There is going to be a long dark winter and the devastation will run into Spring. None of this will boost the Trump legacy.
BIDEN
Biden has an opportunity to right many of the wrongs and create stability and normality. He has the skills, knowledge, diplomacy, coolness under pressure and empathy to convince the country that he is the President of all the states of America. If he wins the Senate and a few Republicans who are anxious not to have the Trump legacy figuring in their obituaries voting with him he can move mountains. The GOP can get back to their traditional policies attacking the “tax and spend” Democrats and we can all live happily ever after.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Much will depend on the Georgian Senate election. As Lindsey Graham put it in an interview on one of the conspiracy radio talk shows, “If we don’t win we are screwed”. What should have been a pushover for the Republican incumbents has become a nail biter as the base are torn between their own local leaders and their cult leader.
Do you think the POTUS congratulated the Biden/Harris duo on being elected Time Person of the Year? At least he didn’t lose to Anthony Fauci?
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