TRUMP’S COALITION, HIS SUCCESSOR AND THE DEATH OF THE GOP

Donald Trump, in case anyone has forgotten, in 2016, soundly trounced the might of the Republican Party Establishment, from the Bush dynasty, to Ted Cruz with Marco Rubio and John Kasich in the middle. After that he cobbled together his own coalition who have stuck with him with cult like devotion. From the get go he was abandoned by the old Republican Establishment and intellectuals outside of Congress. They are led today by the one legislator who was the leader of the Republican Party eight years prior, Mitt Romney, and have become far more organized in their opposition to Trump. They have not fully committed to Biden as most hanker over resuscitating the GOP of Nixon/Goldwater/Reagan and Bush 41.

This time round those who were the backbone of the GOP principles of small government, balanced budgets, trickle down economics, not too much social welfare, the rule of law, commitment to liberal democracy and America’s leadership of the “free world”, have formed Political Action Committees and have banded together to oppose the POTUS’S re election. However they are in denial that the Trump take over of the Republican Party is complete. Trump has replaced the Party principles by promising a past that never was and the fact that he alone can fix up everything that is wrong. He can Make America Great Again which is code for keeping America white.

The question that remains is that without the Republican ideologues, a large number of the youth and the recent abandonment by suburban white women who made up the 2016 Trump coalition can Trump still tip the 2020 Electoral College scales. 

The cult coalition is made up of the group that he created from his populism, the evangelicals, the Republicans who are Republicans simply because they are not Democrats, the bunch who are still fighting the Civil War, those who are against “socialism”, the right wing groups including the racists, and those who hold their noses and give one or other rationale for voting Trump. The key component to the forty percent that consistently, to date, have been true to the Trump cult, is the disgruntled populace, mainly workers who have lost their well paying jobs as a result of revolutionary circumstances that spawned similar movements throughout the world.

WHY ARE THE WORKERS OF THE WORLD SO RESTLESS AND HAVE SOUGHT REFUGE IN POPULIST LEADERS LIKE TRUMP?

This decade is a nexus point for a host of revolutions in globalization, technology, the internet, cloud and 5G communication, sociology, the economy and climate change for starters. All have had the same impact - disillusionment with government and the elites by the blue collar “workers” who allege they have ignored them. Ironically, it has been the white worker, in America, including those in rural districts, who feel most abandoned. Economics cannot be the only factor or even the central factor as the “workers” have gravitated to right wing authoritarianism rather than left wing socialism. The “immigrant” or the “other” have been vilified as the cause of the problem, Trump has made the immigrant and immigration the central reason for the workers’ plight. In fact his first move into the political arena was to claim Obama wasn’t an American because he was born in Kenya. That was obviously untrue but it made the point that as a black man he shouldn’t be President of White America. He signaled his entry into the 2016 election by a racist attack on Mexicans. He has never let up on racism and hatred of the other being crucial to “Make America Great Again”. 

The blue collar and rural citizens claim to have been “left out” and minority groups have cut in front of them in the line leading to the American dream. Together with globalization, the outsourcing of jobs and the closing of mines, they claim that there has been recognition and favoritism of the militant women, the blacks, the LGBT group, the disabled and even the illegal DACA recipients, while they have been neglected. They argue that Government has become more and more dismissive of their plight. The gap between the College educated urban and suburban elites and the blue collar worker especially in the rust belt and rural areas has grown wider and wider both economically and culturally. The latter feel looked down upon by the rulers and their “experts” who graduate from the expensive Colleges where political correctness is defined. Francis Fukuyama, the political scientist, lays this all out in his latest opus, “The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment”. 

This group forms the basis of the Trump coalition together with the Evangelicals.

THE HYPOCRITICAL EVANGELICALS.

When Bill Clinton was President the position of the Evangelicals was that a moral failing in a President should exclude him from holding office. The spokesperson of that viewpoint was Jerry Falwell Senior. He was a leading voice in the cry for impeachment of Clinton literally appearing on television every night to self righteously plead his argument. His son Jerry Falwell Junior was the cheerleader in chief solidifying the constituency he had inherited from his father behind Trump. Falwell regarded Trump with forgiveness as apparently he was privy to the fact that Trump had asked for forgiveness for his sins. Trump had an over ninety percent backing of the newly forgiving group in 2016 as opposed to the ten percent that backed Clinton who at least publicly admitted that he “was wrong”.

The two key agenda items Trump offered to deliver on were Judges who would carry out Falwell’s social and cultural priorities and backing Israel. They were both equally important. It is a little known fact that Trump’s obsession with unconditional backing of Bibi Netanyahu is not for the votes of the  twenty percent of Jews, who support him, who in total, represent less than two percent of Americas, but rather the cult like following it engenders in the Evangelicals. The latter believe that the return of the Messiah is dependent on the existence of the State of Israel.

THE REST OF TRUMP’S COALITION 

There is a mixture of lifelong Republicans that just vote Republican year in and year out. They are not much concerned with fiscal responsibility, low taxation for the rich, America’s commitment to the rule of law and the like. Many believe that the Democrats are socialists and regard welfare programs as just supporting the lazy.They together with the “Alt Right”, the peculiar crazies as exemplified by the Q’Anon movement that believe in every conspiracy their feverish minds conjure, right wing thugs, racists and bigots make up Team Trump. Rush Limbaugh is no longer the fringe that he and Alex Jones represented. Limbaugh was the guest of honor at a Trump address to the nation where publicly he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Then there are those traditional institutions such as the military that have solidly voted Republican and voted for Trump last time. Many of these are stationed oversea and their support has been predicated on the fact that the Republicans have been traditionally more involved in funding the military and their operations. The Democrats by contrast have been viewed as not supportive of the armed services.

Finally there are the senior white citizens the majority of whom have voted Republican. 

HOW SOLID IS THE TRUMP COA;LITION?

The Trump victorious election team has already been abandoned by the suburban white women, a sizable number of Republican youth and the “intellectuals” which fact contributed to the Republican legislative thrashing in 2018. But then Trump was not on the ballot. The key variable, if it remains intact, the disgruntled worker in the rust belt, Trump believes will still push him over the top. Polls seem to indicate that he has lost enough of those not to retain Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin but he is still going full tilt at holding these Mid Western States and believes he can add Minnesota to that list. 

If polls are anything to go by he is losing his grip on the almost unanimous evangelical backing where his over ninety percent backing is down into the seventies. Likewise the white seniors in Arizona and Florida are not as enthusiastic as they were in 2016 and both States are now “toss ups”. It is hard to imagine that the military after his treatment and disdain of their values and his embarrassing attempt to involve them politically can ensure him the support that he received in 2016. 

All in all it looks pretty bleak for Trump.

WHAT CAN TRUMP AND BIDEN DO BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER?

If this was a normal world the answer to the question to what Trump and Biden could do with about ninety days to the election would be, “Not much”. But as this is far from a stable period in American history coupled with the fact that Trump knows no boundaries, the intervening period to November is going to be more frenetic and chaotic than the first twelve hundred days of Donald’s Presidency, if that is conceivable. Trump will with the assistance of those Republican legislators who have bound themselves to the Trump imprimatur will smear Biden off the face of the earth. The select committees in the Republican controlled Senate are openly accepting help from Russia to implicate Biden in Ukrainian corruption. Barr hasn’t stopped in his bizarre endeavor to prove that the Russian involvement in the 2016 election and Trump’s complicity was really as a result of the corruption of Obama/Biden. Trump is all but arguing at the moment that Biden is demented. 

Then Trump with the aid of Republican State Governors and the assistance of Robert’s Supreme Court are hell bent on voter suppression. Trump has even hobbled the Post Office so they cannot efficiently process mail in ballots. 

Trump is trying everything and anything regardless of the fact that much of what he does backfires on him making matters worse. His latest effort is to declare, illegally, financial solutions to the unemployed in the pandemic. His disingenuous support of Florida to vote by mail while simultaneously suing the State of Nevada who have taken a decision to ballot by mail has been met with embarrassment by the 2020 legislative Republican contenders. He just showers the wall with dirt and hopes against hope that something will stick. 

Trump is preparing the way for legal challenges by screaming like he did in 2016 that the election is rigged. The antidote to this authoritarian grab to hang onto power can be negated if he is thrashed at the polls.

Biden for his part just needs to hang in there and look Presidential. All he has to do is not make mistakes and allow Trump to campaign against himself. Trump’s desire to suppress the vote has an equal and opposite reaction in that it has unified and mobilized the Democrats like never before. As the Wisconsin election for a Judge indicated the Democrats were prepared to wait in line for hours in the one polling both left open to throw out a Republican. 

TRUMP’S SUCCESSOR AND THE GOP

If Trump loses in 2020 it is exceedingly unlikely that Donald Jnr will be the number one choice as his successor. In fact the former Republican establishment want their Party back. While they are paying for ads tp avoid a Trump re election they are still wedded to the principles of the Republican Party of Reagan and Bush 41. To illustrate this Sue Cupp, a former Republican operative, who is a devastating critic of Trump and program after program states what a disaster he is, while not voting for him in 2020 is not committed to voting for Biden. Likewise Mitt Romney who voted for Trump’s impeachment will probably write in his wife’s name on the ballot as he did in 2016. Do these and others seriously believe that that is enough? 

The Trump Republican Party is represented by Spokesperson Ronna McDaniel and WhiteHouse Press Secretary Kelly McEnany.  The latter support Trump’s non challenging of Putin’s bounty on American soldiers, the disintegration of the intelligence establishment, the trashing of the generals, the incompetence of the pandemic response, the waste of building a wall on the Southern border, fiscal waste on an unprecedented scale, the locking of children in cages, the abrogation of the rule of law and America’s tricameral system and the abandonment of allies….. It is not for nothing that both Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell are facing serious challenges in the deep deep red South.

Not one of these Republican “elites” can give you the name of who Trump’s successor should be in 2021. However the Trump crowd can name names, the favorite being Tucker Carlson, the Fox TV anchor and part of the nightly triumvirate  that unconditionally back Trump.Tucker Carlson is a biggot in Trump’s league and like the POTUS has gained prominence through being a TV Star. 

The reality is the Grand Old Party last represented by Romney is dead. The old Republican Party whose representatives, all sixteen, whom Trump trounced should find a new home. They need to realize that there is a new world out there and while Trump has failed to deliver on his promises the reason he came into being is that the GOP were living in the past.  These talented operatives should take stock of the new world and realize that trickle down economics is not the answer to the tens of millions unemployed at the moment and that the new industrial revolution is going to need innovative answers. Biden is going to have to revive an FDR moment and needs all the help and support he can get.

In case the old Republicans still need persuading that their philosophy has been rejected let them be reminded by just three examples in modern history.

* Gorbachev knew that dictatorship by the proletariat had failed so he broke up the USSR and “tore down that wall”.

* Since 1978 China has moved eighty percent of its peoples out of poverty by adopting a predominantly market based economy rather than a centralized system. It now has the world’s second largest economy.

* Finally, McConnell cannot control the majority of Republicans in the Senate and therefore has left it to Trump to negotiate with the Democrats on the economic relief pandemic package. The Old Republican party as demonstrated by its dinosaurs in the Senate is dead. 

AT THE END OF THE DAY

To those who keep wondering what would happen if Trump faced a crisis not of his own making -  look around. 

It is crucial that Biden has a resounding victory in 2020 otherwise Trump will use every possible legal strategy to delay the inevitable. The former Republicans must do more than attack Trump they must vote for Biden!