This was a bad bad week for the POTUS. Even he must be getting that Atlantic City feeling when his casinos were going belly up. The ever sensitive Donald has to be aware that there has been a culture change in the country. A transformation in American culture is taking place that impacts his narrative enormously. He is hopelessly out of step with the majority of the country on who constitutes being an American. As he was venerating the Confederate cause three quarters of the country were removing statues and contemplating name changes.
As his poll numbers shrink he has watched the Supreme Court deal three blows to his agenda. In a desperate bid to resuscitate his election campaign he organized a campaign rally, against his Center for Disease Control's advice, which turned out to be a damp squib. His red rally was blanketed with empty blue seats.
One fact is for sure is that this painful episode in American history with its unempathetic President is heralding social and culture change, the most important of which is that the acceptance that African Americans have been discriminated against. The Black Lives Matter movement has resulted in a national and world wide awakening as to bias conscious and unconscious towards those with black skins.
The Supreme Court, in the light of the dysfunction of the Presidency and the obstinacy of the Republican Senate to reflect the cultural change of attitude in society, have issued two rulings to reflect where society is on these matters. With regard to the immigrant children brought here decades ago the Chief Justice Roberts Court has affirmed the Obama decision that they may remain here, reversing Trump’s order to throw eight hundred thousand young adults out. Then in a historic decision they confirmed the rights of the LBGT community to equal protection under the law.
And these weren’t the only setbacks to the POTUS in the week that was.
A TRIFECTA OF WORRIES IN ONE WEEK
In addition the POTUS has had a trifecta of other problems. He went full steam ahead with his indoor rally in Tulsa Oklahoma with all the racial overtones that that implied in that place at this time. In so doing he has used the event as a rally cry for his cult to congregate thereby openly risking a mixture of coronavirus spread and fighting in the streets. As if anticipating the latter, he added fuel to the flames of the burning country, warning the protestors that they will meet law enforcement with a vengeance. His problem with this effort was that the cult did not pitch up in enough numbers to even fill the arena. In spite of his prognostications nobody lit a fuse to the powder keg in the streets, so he could enact his Law and Order agenda.
Also the meeting was one long big yawn as he explained to the maskless faithful step by step why he went down tiny step by step down the ramp at the West Point Graduation. That’s not apparently what they came to hear. It is all getting so old. Trump doesn’t learn. You have to change the show. The Casino’s went bang. The Apprentice ratings dropped as there was no one left to fire. And now “Rally with Make America Great” - a live show - is not doing so well in its second season.
Then there is his previous National Security Advisor, John Bolton’s no holds barred expose, which lays bare in exquisite detail his corrupt administration. Now that the money is in the bank Bolton will throw off his sensibilities about testifying to anyone who is interested. Some of the content has been leaked with the effect that it is already, before being released, top of the best sellers’ list. The book is five hundred and fifty - eight pages long so it is going to be a doozie that will make every Republican run for cover when asked to comment on Adam Schiff’s warning about what constituted the depths of depravity of the Trump administration. Besides a few new scandals as a teaser there is the devastating assessment by Bolton, who is the former darling of the Conservatives, that Trump’s whole foreign policy was dictated by his own personal needs.
Finally, without warning to his allies, Trump instructed his Attorney General, William Barr, to fire the Federal Prosecutor of New York who is in the process of investigating his current personal attorney having locked up his first, Michael Cohen. What must have shocked Trump to the core was the comment that Lindsey Graham his number one supporter said he could not go forward with Trump’s new nomination for the position unless Democratic Senator Schumer agreed! The New York Attorney General finally agreed to leave office with the concession that his own deputy would take over. The latter will continue the agenda of investigating Trump and his side kick Giuliani that this attempt to abrogate the rule of law was supposed to achieve. One wonders how low Attorney General Barr is prepared to sink to carry Trump’s water?
All this came on the heels of the top military brass disassociating themselves from his illegal use of their imprimateur in dispersing a peaceful protest so he could have a photo op next to a church. It is unbelievable that the Chief of the Military publicly apologized to the nation for being maneuvered into a political event. He did this on the eve of the West Point graduation that Trump childishly insisted on addressing in person. The speech was more in tune with a middle school graduation but the socially distanced masked graduates dutifully applauded their Commander in Chief and watched in amazement as he navigated the wooden ramp off the stage.
BLACK LIVES MATTER - NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENTS
The awareness by Americans of racism towards the descendants of slaves became evident with a month of protests in six hundred and fifty cities and towns. The protests have not let up. Perhaps even more significant is that this spontaneous outpouring triggered protests throughout the world. But in America they ushered a transformation and reflected a major attitudinal shift toward the African Americans centuries old plight.
First and foremost the myth of the lazy crooked African American who was being arrested in droves for “good reason” was shattered as the nation witnessed two discriminatory encounters, both of which ended up in murder. The nation’s sentiment was for the victims and they awoke to the fact that there was racial prejudice. The streets are still full of protestors of all shades and colors proclaiming, “Black Lives Matter”. As a corollary to that change the invincibility of the police took a massive hit. Changes are in progress now to no hold them accountable for what is considered to be murder. Their defense will no longer be the subjective assessment, “I feared fro my life” followed by acquittal.
This empathy for African Americans’ situation and their lack of equal protection under the law and the acceptance that law officers could be held accountable represented a reversal of a societal position that had been tacitly accepted for generations.
The whole issue has sparked a reawakening of reversing the discrimination. Nearly every other CEO has donated moneys to this effect as well as programs to diversify their management. There is near unanimity that June the nineteenth, the anniversary of the freedom of slaves, should be declared a local and national holiday in America.
What amazed Jay H. Ell was the extent of the worldwide involvement in America’s number one issue. As a soccer fan he was thrilled to watch the first televised English Premier League Soccer Matches with their built in sound effects to compensate for the empty stadiums. All the players in the games he viewed didn’t have adverts or names on the back of their shirts. Rather they had the slogan “Black Lives Matter”.
SUPREME COURT OF UNITED STATES (SCOTUS) RULES IN FAVOR OF CULTURAL CHANGE
The Conservative Supreme Court in a relatively short space of time has dealt blows to Trump’s approach to voter suppression and discrimination against all people not white. While this Supreme Court Session is not over Chief Justice Roberts is obviously not going to allow the court to appear to be an appendage of a minority government representing an even smaller minority of the population. In three decisions that have evoked Trump’s ire, as they were contrary to what he promised to deliver, two directly impacted on the status of minorities. The third was directed at preventing voter suppression of a minority.
Trump in order to frighten Hispanics, “legal” or not, to fill in census forms thereby weakening the legislative representation of states that have a large Latino population, insisted that those who fill the forms declare whether they were citizens or not. Roberts plus the liberals denied him permission. Robert’s rationale, almost in so many words, was that while the Executive had the right to do so the reasons the Trump administration offered were an insult to the Court’s intelligence.
The second decision, which is far more reaching, was not to allow Trump to reverse Obama’s executive order allowing children who were brought here as minors and have not gained citizenship, to remain legally in America. Trump’s reversal of Obama’s decision was a betrayal of trust in the Executive Branch that no responsible leader would have dreamed of undertaking. The born outside of America Hispanics brought here by their parents had to register with the government in order to continue working or studying. This guaranteed them protection from deportation. That decision by the beleaguered “children” took trust in what America’s word meant. Trump had no compunction in breaking that trust, All this makes a resounding Democratic victory of the Presidency and both legislative Houses essential so as to begin to reinstate America’s good name and regularize these DACA residents’ statuses.
The other central cultural issue that the Supreme Court ruled on was the rights of the LGBT community. The Trump Government unbelievably argued the rights of employers to dismiss an employee on the basis that they were lesbian, gay, bisexual or transexual. He already had issued a host of discriminatory orders against these groups including in the area of health care. The opinion denying employers’ the right to do so was written by Trump appointee Justice Gorsuch making this a 6 - 3 decision.
These rulings are large reversals to Trump. One of his key constituencies, the Evangelicals, have stomached this sinful heathen because he was going to carry out their cultural agenda. They are not much interested that the Judges are labelled “conservative”. Trump picked them. Trump promised that his judges would deliver and they haven’t.
This SCOTUS session is far from over and decisions on abortion are awaited. At best Trump can hope for is some more latitude for individual states but if the other cultural rulings are anything to go by there is no way, with close on sixty - five percent of the country not wanting the reversal of Roe v Wade, that Roberts will buck that precedent. The question of the release of Trump’s taxes may well go the POTUS’S way but that is not the reason that the Evangelicals voted for him.
WHAT CAN THE PANICKED TRUMP DO?
Trump in the teeth of the pandemic and the pain of the country over police shootings did what he does best - put on a show. By so doing he is employing the best possible tactic under the circumstances, trying at least to hang onto his base. With them and the weird electoral college he cannot be finally counted out. However his thrust directed to the cult has alienated, perhaps for good, the waverers, the switchers, the independents, the old GOP guard, the suburban women, the elderly in Florida and Arizona and the youth everywhere including those of the Republican Party. Most significantly the military leaders, including the current Chief of Staff have been highly critical and they have been traditionally silently Republican. Also the Evangelicals may just stay away because it is obvious he cannot deliver the cultural agenda he ran on.
With all the police shootings followed by generally well behaved protests, the only major arrest thus far being a right wing nut, his change of campaign slogan to Law and Order is incongruous.
Trump knows however that the Republican legislators are stuck with him. They had their chance with impeachment to run on their own merits but now they are hoist on their own petard. Trump can hope that the individual legislators can muster support to win and once the faithful are at the polls they will vote for him.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
It all looks hopeless for the Donald but as Anthony commented last week you can never count him out to try anything. He is constrained by no rules, no sense of decency, no loyalty other than to himself. If Bolton is right he could declare war against Iran to boost his chances at the polls.
Thoughts on best Biden strategy? T. Duckworth for VP?
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