Pundits had speculated what would happen if Donald Trump would face a crisis not of his making. They need no longer ruminate for his behavior has been on display for all to see in the coronavirus crisis. In short his response has been a disaster, which has dramatically decreased his chances in the 2020 Presidential election. But this needn’t have been.
Every other American President in living memory has risen to the occasion. More significantly, with Covid 19, other struggling world leaders, up against the same challenge, have resuscitated their shaky political situations.
One outcome of this dramatic life threat to countries across the globe is the importance of leadership to societies and the value citizens place on honesty, responsibility, empathy and firm yet even unpalatable solutions when the necessity of them is made evident. Trump’s leadership is contrasted with that of Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel and Bibi Netanyahu.
IN THE BEGINNING
When Trump was faced with a dozen or so Intelligence briefings some report as early as November but definitely in January and February, he had every opportunity to prepare for the upcoming pandemic. He had to have seen the threat to his already wobbly electoral re election chances. He was faced with the midterm results, defeats in every swing and red states and polls that showed Democratic challengers ahead. But he was after all the incumbent, he controlled the narrative as President, there were his rallies and tweets which were slavishly covered by all the media and there was the economy. He was laser like focussed on the latter. It was all very well for a dictatorship like China to close down the shop, Xi was there for life, but he needed to be re elected.
So like with everything else he decided to bluff it out. How he believed he could do it G-D knows how but someone with his pathology does not learn from mistakes. The silver tongued genius would some how hold the line and talk the virus and its virulence away.
IT PROGRESSED FROM BAD TO WORST
When lightening struck with a few coronavirus cases in California and Washington he had yet another chance to ‘“come clean” and hunker down but the garbage flowed on as he claimed that the corona scare was a Democratic hoax. The diversions continued as did the blame for America’s shocking morbidity and death rate. Today it is China and the World Health Organization that are at fault. What happened in February, March and April is common knowledge and even the Senate Republicans have been instructed to not try and defend his statements on the coronavirus other than talk about China’s culpability in the saga.
Not only has he failed as a leader he has bizarrely claimed in his daily two hour coronavirus briefings that this is not his responsibility. It is the burden of the individual Sates. Presumably the rationale is the hope that the virus will selectively hit only Democrats. The result is that in every State the respective Governors poll almost doubly as well as he does in the management of the coronavirus pandemic.
The upshot is that the Senate which appeared to be a long shot for the Democrats is leaning towards them. The polling for his Presidency chances similarly suck. Even in Utah and Texas, which are the reddest of red States, which he won by double figures in 2016, his lead is only five percent. Joe Biden in national polling is ahead by ten percent which is a lead beyond the margin of error. Just two months ago the oddsmakers made Trump a three to one on favorite to win re election - a wager that meant to win one dollar you had to bet three. In some betting salons now Joe Biden is the favorite or at least the betting shops give them both the same chance of winning.
Yet Trump soldiers on with his central mantra being the cure is worse than the disease and that the country wants to “re open”. He backs and incites thugs with guns, “who are good people” to revolt. They pitch up in dozens not tens of thousands at the State capitols. He also ignores the statistics that indicate that eighty percent of the population support the stay at home policies.
Without belaboring the Trump lies, mismanagement, lack of empathy and leadership in every aspect of this tragedy how else could he have responded? Jay H. Ell will give three examples of international leaders who were in dire straights who emerged empowered by their displays of honesty, empathy and management of the self same predicament that Trump found himself in. Two of these, Boris Johnson and Bibi Netanyahu are populists as well while one is his nemeses in the Free World, Angela Merkel.
TRUMP’S SOUL MATE BORIS JOHNSON
Boris Johnson, an unashamed populist, who more than anyone was Trump’s European soul mate became British Prime Minister almost by default. The British Conservative Party who were all over the show on BREXIT and all over the show period were saddled with implementing the European exit that was as a surprising a voter outcome as the Trump election. No - one’s heart was really in it except good old Boris and a few others so after two resignations Boris was catapulted into leadership. He called a snap election and the Conservatives romped home because however in a disarray they were Labour, with a doddering idiot as head, were worse. So there he was, as the country’s commander in chief, Nationalist, anti - immigrant deluxe and with no reservation ready to get out of Europe. His approval rate even as new Premier was woeful.
Along came the virus and like his soul mate across the pond he didn’t think much of it. He flaunted his disdain saying he would shake hands till kingdom come. Kingdom never came but the coronavirus did and hit him hard. He ended up in the Intensive Care Unit and hung between life and death. Obviously he was elegantly managed being kept off a ventilator. Merging from his experience he sung the praises of two nurses who ministered to him, making a point of letting the world know that they were immigrants. His son was born shortly after and he named him after the two doctors. Johnson had nothing but praise for the British National Health Service which to say the least was a Government service he had never given the highest rating. What struck a chord was Johnson’s apologetic demeanor following his harrowing experience.
Well when Boris was elected only ten percent of Brits approved of his Government’s performance. By the end of March over fifty percent approved of their performance with twenty - two percent of Labor joining in. Only twenty - six disapproved. Whatever may follow, even though it was a sad fate that propelled Johnson’s, up till then, hidden empathy and humility, he was now enjoying unimaginable support as a result of his behavior in the age of Covid 19.
ANGELA MERKEL A TRUMP NEMESIS.
Angela Merkel the veteran German Chancellor spent six months following the September 2019 election struggling to put together a governing coalition. The far right German anti immigrant party had eaten into her Conservative Democratic Party making her desperately in need of Social Democratic Party support. European stalwarts heaved a sigh of relief when Merkel finally succeeded. She with France’s Macron were seen as the only possibility to keep the European Union afloat but also as leaders of the Western World's liberal democratic order now that Trump had abandoned America’s seventy year role and Johnson was exitting Europe.
In the self same month of March that Merkel had cobbled together a coalition the Coronavirus plague hit Germany. Merkel acted honestly, firmly and decisively putting together a tough package of social distancing, stay at home policies, invasive public tracking and closure of non essential business. Bearing in mind the protracted labor of the birth of her new government it took leadership and guts to dish up this stern dose of medicine. Some commentators predicted a hastened exit for Chancellor Merkel. Yet in one month her approval rating shot up to eighty percent. Every one of Germany’s parties except the far right approved of the handling of the pandemic. Polls conducted as to which party Germans would vote for if an election were to be held now showed that the Merkel’s Party would gain seven percent largely at the expense of the right wing.
The importance of trusted leadership was again shown to be very instrumental in the outcome of the disease process and the citizen’s appreciation of her efforts.
BIBI NETANYAHU TRUMP’S MAJOR ALLY
If anyone’s fortunes were in the dumps prior to the outbreak it was Israel’s premier Bibi Netanyahu. He had in three elections failed to gain a majority coalition, having in the latest lost ground to the center. If a fourth one was to follow he had every reason to believe that in spite of his populist leadership, pandering to the worst possible prejudices, he would be in an even weaker position. He was also in deep criminal legal trouble with indictments against him. He was pinning his freedom on one last hope that the Israeli Knesset would give a Prime Minister immunity from prosecution. Following the third election he lost that vote by fifty - eight to sixty - two. The majority of Israeli citizenry were opposed to such an amnesty.
Netanyahu’s ally, the Speaker of the Knesset who has in the Israeli political scene immense prestige being the deputy to the President, refused to step down. The Israeli Supreme Court forced him to. He was then replaced by Bibi’s current rival for the Premiership Bennie Ganz leader of the Israeli Center coalition. As neither Netanyahu or Ganz could form a Government Israel was heading into a fourth election. The odds were that Ganz would increase his slender advantage and then came the pandemic.
Netanyahu acted decisively and clearly in the face of the virus’s onslaught, locking down Israel with almost draconian directives. As he enacted what would appear to be, on their face, unpopular moves, his approval ratings climbed. Netanyahu reached out to Ganz who had made an electoral promise that he would never form a coalition with him. Ganz resisted but as the country increasingly supported Netanyahu’s steadfast leadership Ganz realized that should this go to a fourth election Netanyahu would gain the edge, so he agreed to Netanyahu’s offer. The latter had survived to live another day and he had his response to the virus epidemic to thank for it. Netanyahu still has to stand trial but with the prestige of being Israel’s Premier somewhat insulating him.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Leadership matters. Leaders who presents the facts as they are and are seen to act in the country’s best interest regardless of the sacrifice that their directives entail enhance their credibility and support. Conversely leaders who appear to be just securing their own interests lose their credibility and the backing of the electorate. This maxim seems to apply regardless of the political bent of the leader. Francis Fukuyama, the famed political scientist, makes a related point in an article in The Atlantic where he points out that the key factor in the leader's success in this crisis is whether or not he can engender trust not whether the country is demoractic or a dictatorship.
There was no chance that Trump would resist being Trump and the country is paying a price for his megalomania. The Republican Legislature representatives are at grave risk as a result of tying their futures to Trump’s mast.
Jay H. Ell often wonders who is worse Trump or the Republican Legislators who swore to uphold the Constitution. The POTUS seems inherently bad while most of the Republican Legislators know right from wrong and have failed at every opportunity to put country before self. The best they can now hope for is to duck the reporters, pray with the POTUS that the virus will just go away and hope the voters will forget their perfidy. Meanwhile the Republican Senate leader, McConnell has summoned the Senate back, at risk to them, their staff and the Senate employees to install Trump’s judges.
As Jay H. Ell reminds again and again, Trump has survived for seventy odd years so never count him out till the referee has counted till ten. He will stoop to what ever depths it takes not to be a “loser". Certainly not to "expletive Joe Biden".
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