Donald Trump declared US Civil War II last week by exhorting his cult to "liberate" three key swing States which have Blue Governors. By so doing he called his people to “take up arms” as “The cure was worse than the disease”. The large signboard at his briefings featured the central thrust of his policy which was “ReOpen America”. Trump’s objective was clear - restore the economy at the expense of life - to enhance his re - election to the Presidency. Ignoring for the moment that the President is becoming more and more unhinged by the day, there is a need to examine whether or not his strategy has any hope of success.
The President’s electoral strategy is based on a number of false assumptions. It was transparent that he, like Senate leader McConnell, believed that the only “losers” would be in the Blue states if the country is re opened. To this day they are still sticking to the fairy tale that the virus is a Blue virus and will not spread to the Red or Purple states. What was verbalized as well as being manifested by the demographic that was dying was that the “losers” in the Blue States would be predominantly the elderly.
Choosing the economy over “life” has been Trump’s preference from the get go. None of the faithful have contradicted the many expressions of this utilitarian mantra to effect what is rationalized to be the greatest good for the most. The clearest expression of this philosophy was articulated by the seventy year old Lieutenant Governor of the great state of Texas. He indicated a willingness as he said, many others were as well, “To sacrifice our lives for the good of the country”. He then implied that the geriatrics shouldn’t really have a choice, “Texas should not shut down because a few people are dying”.
Another rationale behind the lifting of mitigation strategies is that the sparsely populated rural areas and less densely inhabited inner country States, both decidedly Red, have to date not the same prevalences of the plague.
Finally, as there were only a few right wing outfits and a few Red Governors that were gung ho to follow his “ReOpen America” Trump needed a spontaneous uprising from the masses to bolster his coalition. They would be his troops in Civil War II.
THE COALITION SUPPORTING TRUMP
Besides the initial eight Red Governors who were holding the line on instituting mitigation, three additional Red Governors immediately signed up - Georgia, South Carolina and Florida. The former obliged by announcing he would open the whole of his State, which Trump initially, privately and publicly endorsed and then publicly condemned, thereby throwing the Georgian Governor under the bus Both Georgia and Florida were opening up beaches where the cheerful dippers congregate on top of one another.
Iowa and South Dakota had previously obliged the Trump mantra by ignoring the peril that hundreds of positive meat workers might have on the manifestation of the disease in their Red states. For the most part the majority of the Red Governors exhibited no suicidal displays rather they issued careful statements about decreasing the mitigation instructions as circumstances allowed. Some Republican State Legislators were prominent in support of the protests. However there was no outpouring of support from Congressional Republican Legislators who were hiding in their basements unavailable for comment.
With regard to the anticipated angry populace there has been no spontaneous storming of the State Legislatures. Tiny protests of between a hundred and a thousand are evident. Their guns, confederate flags and red MAGA caps make it clear that they belong to the usual fringe groups who come out on these occasions.
Behind the “spontaneous uprisings” is big money some of which is being utilized to flood the social media. According to the Washington Post an initiative called the “Convention of States” which is funded by right wing Republican mega donors such as the Mercer Family is synchronising the "uprisings". The well greased Koch brothers' “Citizens for Self Governance”, is the key organization behind the “Convention of States”. The Koch statement on the debate reiterated the common misperception that this was a Blue problem - “To shut down the rural counties because of what is going on in New York or even Milwaukee is draconian”. The Tea Party and Freedom Works groups have joined the struggle as well.
There is little doubt that these groups will muster further demonstrations but staring them in the face in every poll is an overwhelming support for stay at home policies with up to seventy percent in favor.
Of course the key element in the Trump cabal is the feedback loop between Fox News and the POTUS which undoubtedly is the strongest link in his coalition. John Oliver, in an HBO expose, showed how heavily Donald relied on the policy suggestions emanating from his echo chamber which often were tweeted out by him within minutes of being broadcast.
All in all not a formidable coalition to rally to the President’s call to arms.
THE “EXPENDABLE” GERIATRICS ARE NOT ONLY BLUE
It is acknowledged that the most vicious manifestations of the disease are reserved for those with preconditions and who are over sixty - five years of age. Even with the death total at over fifty thousand the irrational perception is that the impact on the Trump supporters will be minimal because the Red geriatrics are supposedly hidden away in unaffected Red States and rural areas. Anyway as Bill O’Reilly, a Trump groupie, has opined the dying are “those who are already on the way out”.
Without social distancing the death toll was modeled at between one hundred and two hundred and fifty thousand. Thus far up to eight out of ten deaths in the USA have been in patients over sixty - five years of age while they only represent sixteen percent of the population.
Now one wonders why the ever practical Trump does not realize that the older demographic is the only one which favored him in 2016. In fact they tipped the balance in the key states. He can ill afford to lose these voters both from the virus itself and because of the cavalier way they are being cast aside. There are also some crucial workers in or around that demographic - twenty percent of farmers are nearing sixty, while one third of physicians are over that age and a large chunk of nurses are nearing retirement. Is he not worried too about the American Association of Retired Persons, (AARP), the most powerful entity in the country weighing in, big time?
THE RED STATES AND THE BLUE STATES, COUNTIES, RURAL AREAS, NURSING HOMES AND THE ELDERLY
The central misperception, to labor the point, is that the geriatrics are mainly in the Blue states. One quarter of those in the Social Security age group are in California, Florida and Texas, (two out of three in Red, with Florida having the highest number by far) and another quarter are in Georgia, New York, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, North Carolina (Four of seven Red).
There is no misperception about the rural areas they are blood Red.
According to the Kaiser Health Foundation more than half the counties in the USA have no Intensive Care Beds, (ICU). In those counties, nearly all rural, there are close on twenty million over the age of sixty. Even counties in the top ten percent of available health care facilities there is only one ICU bed per four hundred and fifty. Hilton Head in South Carolina, a popular retirement destination, has one ICU bed for every three thousand nine hundred vulnerable patents.
Nearly all of the Counties that have no ICU beds are in rural areas where ninety - five hospitals have closed in the past decade. If, or rather when, the virus penetrates any of these areas whether it be via a long care term facility or meat packing plants or even by personal contact there will be an even higher mortality of this age group than in the cities and towns, like "New York and Milwaukee” where the hospitals are concentrated and can provide care.
Also the petrie dishes of nursing homes are evenly spread all over the show as are concentrations of elderly retirement homes.These are also understandably situated where property is far cheaper and supportive facilities particularly health care are far and few between. Nursing homes are manned by personnel that live in the surrounding areas. The staff become infected and will increase the prevalence of the disease as they return to their communities after their shifts. There are nearly sixteen hundred nursing homes with a capacity for one million seven hundred thousand elderly in the country. When they are hit by the virus it spreads through the institution like wild fire. Major hotspots have been the latter and Kirkland Nursing Home in Washington State was the first to shock the nation. Well over a quarter of New York's nearly twelve thousand deaths were nursing home residents.
So much for the cynical belief that this a Blue disease.
SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY AND “REOPEN AMERICA”
It is fair comment to maintain that if human life must be preserved as far as possible science is not assisting the Trump position to “Reopen America”. The POTUS, while recognizing that it would be untenable to proceed without at least having some medical scientists hanging around, has nevertheless been arguing against them from day one.
The first scientific victim of the Commander in Chief’s wrath was Dr. Nancy Messonier, the Center for Disease Control’s, (CDC), Director for Immunization and Respiratory Disease. Dr. Messonier on February 25, 2020 in a WhiteHouse Press briefing, warned that the Coronavirus infection’s everyday disruption might be severe. Trump heard the warning en route back from India where he and Premier Modi were holding a mutual admiration jamboree. Trump blew a fuse. That was her last WhiteHouse appearance. However at a CDC briefing in early March she spelt out the danger to those at high risk advising them to stock up with groceries, medications and to shelter in place for the foreseeable future. She predicted that the problem would persist till 2021. Her prescient warnings were ignored. There are reports that the POTUS threatened to fire her. She is no longer a visible member of Team Coronavirus.
Dr. Andrew Fauci the country’s foremost authority on infectious diseases and Dr. Deborah Birx, Trump’s appointee to head the Task Force, dance around like cats on a hot tin roof as they struggle to correct his patent nonsense while resisting his desire for them to retract their statements. Trump, one is sure, would certainly like to axe Fauci but he has the highest trustworthy approval on the virus while his own, like on every other issue, is well South of fifty percent.
Dr. Robert Redfield, head of the CDC, made a rare appearance this cycle where he insisted that there were big problems ahead in the fall when both influenza and Covid virus would rear their fatal heads simultaneously. The subsequent WhiteHouse briefing was characterized by Trump trying to bully Redfield and the rest of his scientific team to agree with him that Covid 19 may not come back in the fall. (He didn’t add that was around about Presidential election time).
The whole issue came to the boil this week when a Director of Biomedical Research, Dr. Rick Bright, who is in the forefront of vaccine research, went public with the accusation that he was fired from his position and demoted because he refused to buy into the Trump hype that hydroxychloroquine was a “game changer”. For whatever reason Trump has been punting that age old antimalarial as the miracle drug that would reverse the tide.
Almost simultaneously to the Bright bohaai the FDA announced that that drug, due to fatal arrhythmic side effects, should only be administered in the hospital for Covid 19. This followed a publication of preliminary results of a randomized study in the Journal of American Medical Association. The initial report showed no difference in outcome between Trump’s drug and a placebo. It did warn that a number of patients on chlorine sustained heart arryhythmias. Bright according to his lawyers is considering a WhistleBlower action.
All this adds up to an uphill battle for the “ReOpen America” campaign.
AT THE END OF THE DAY.
The number of deaths per day from the pandemic is consistently around two thousand. New York’s is decreasing as the virus slowly penetrates the Red interior of America.
Governor Cuomo is establishing himself as the voice of reason and a brilliant debater as Trump found out and Mitch McConnell has just learned. McConnell stated that no way will he vote for a State bail out, they are all Blue States anyway. Cuomo countered that New York pays more into the Federal Government than it receives while Kentucky, McConnell’s Red State is subsidized annually by the Federal Government, “His State receives a bail out every year”. Again this is not a Red or Blue State matter among the Governors. All fifty Governors voted for a five hundred billion dollar bail out to proportionately cover costs and economic losses sustained during the nationally declared emergency.
Cuomo went on about McConnell’s unbelievable insensitivity at those who died in New York and his never ending partisanship. He then challenged the Republican Senate leader to introduce legislation allowing States to go bankrupt and see how that would impact American Financial markets which would come crashing down. Legislators in McConnell’s own state of Kentucky criticized him. Like with Trump that is sure to end Moscow Mitch messing with Cuomo. The New York Governor is becoming more and more the country’s figurehead and leader against the fight against the coronavirus.
Trump has seemingly abandoned his Civil War II leaving his troops and the Governor of Georgia at the tender mercies of their critics. He is now investigating extending the mitigation advisory rather than immediately Reopening America. His Coalition needn’t be too despondent because he can reverse his position tomorrow.
The POTUS maintains that he was being sarcastic when he suggested administering bleach or intravenous sunlight to treat the virus. His following took him seriously however and every State’s poison center is receiving calls while the manufacturers of the sanitizers are issuing warning statements.
Politico added a few more States that the Democrats might flip in addition to winning back, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The report rated Florida the most vulnerable followed by North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.
What news is even worse for Trump is the Fox Poll of elderly voters in swing states where he won in 2016 because of the senior citizens. In Florida, which he won narrowly he had a seventeen percent plurality in the over sixty - five category. He is now ahead by one percent in the senior population, which will result in a trouncing in 2020. In Michigan and Pennsylvania where he likewise relied on the senior citizens the Fox Poll showed him behind by eighteen and seven points respectively in the senior citizen demographic.
It seems that the utilitarian position of sacrificing the elderly for political expediency would not be such a good plan after all. Trump trooped off the WhiteHouse podium on Friday after twenty minutes, just a hundred minutes short of his usual show time. The white flag was evident but not visible.
Everyone is aware that sooner or later the economy has to get going but the curve at least has to be trending downwards. Post coronavirus it will be a new world even after a vaccine. Everyone is also aware that Trump will never give up.
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