President Obama, in what seems like a thousand years ago, inspired the nation with his cry - “There are no blues states, there are no red states - only the United States”. Donald Trump doesn’t believe in that mantra - even in a pandemic that threatens the lives of Americans. He has misled his red state cult to the extent that up till March the majority of Republicans polled stated that the Covid 19 emergency was being exaggerated. Slogans such as the scare was a “Democratic Hoax” were the order of the day while he bragged the number of cases would soon be down to zero. Even when he declared a National Emergency on March 13, he did not do so with great conviction. Then, the number of confirmed cases was at sixteen thousand and deaths forty - one, now, two weeks later they are exponentially increasing the tally being one hundred and twenty - four thousand with those succumbing at two thousand three hundred. With no sign of the curve flattening the POTUS would like to re open the economy.
The cynics have noted that the POTUS doesn’t even need to read a one page briefing of double spaced sentences to note where the largest concentration of cases are. He needs just to glance at the map and note where the consolidation of victims are. Although they are depicted with red balls they are in deep blue states. Trump as he has exhibited is far more inclined to listen to red Governor De Sanctis of red Florida than blue Governor Cuomo of blue New York.
The crisp point is that the POTUS wants to get the economy buzzing while the consensus is that the priority is eliminating the virus first. In his quest he is enlisting the support of the Red States that are mainly in the center of America which have not yet been proportionally hit. In his bizarre endeavor, besides the usual sycophants he is being aided and abetted by the Fox Nightly News Team. A poll from Survey 160 and Gradient Metrics indicated that Republicans or Near Republicans that watch Fox hold the POTUS’S view in greater numbers than those that don’t. Trump’s position at the moment to put it kindly is ambivalent but he has made it quite clear that the economy is in free fall and that the current cure for the pandemic is worse than the disease. Or as Rush Limbaugh, has so succinctly put it, “We didn’t elect a President to listen to a bunch of health experts that we don’t know”.
If it wasn’t for the Governors and Mayors and the civil servants in fact next to nothing would have been achieved. At the end of the day Trump will have wished he would have led from the front because the coronavirus pandemic will become a tidal wave enveloping the country, whether it is red or blue. Like Obama said they are not just Blue States and Red States but…….
TRUMP’S CURRENT POSITION - GET REELECTED
Trump principle reelection strategy has relied on a healthy economy. It is thus fair to interpret his mumbo jumbo as being in favor of resuming economic activity as soon as possible. He mooted April 10 as the date when he would reassess his position on “social distancing” and stay at home policy. The POTUS absurdly prophesied that the Church Pews would be full on April 10 again ignoring the fact that most of the religious leaders have already cancelled services. The orthodox rabbis in Chicago, for example, maintained that it would be a sin to hold any service of even ten notwithstanding the Passover Holiday.
In desperation Trump has backed legislation allotting over three trillion dollars in bail out money most of which is going to lower and middle income groups, which ethos reflects the Pelosi Democratic “worker’ philosophy rather than the McConnell Republican “business trickle down” approach. The Federal Reserve to Trump’s delight has acted promptly and potentially will make four trillion dollars available in one way or another. He like everyone else hopes that these actions will stave off a depression. Everyone other than him has acknowledged that a recession is inevitable.
In his urgency to get the economy moving, he is backed by some Republicans including Governors of some of the Red States. Of course his echo chamber, the loudest of which is the evening Fox News, is backing his argument that this country was not made to shut down. The right wing media support was exemplified by Glenn Beck who broadcast that he was prepared to go out there into the economy and die for the sake of his children!
The President has recognized that the crisis has prime time television high ratings so he has taken over as being the front of the response while leaving the action to the Corporations, States, Counties, Cities and Towns. While leading from behind he also has to tolerate his health professionals correcting his lay medical beliefs, hunches, guesses and misinformation. He is impervious to the daily fact checking which adds to his thousands of recorded lies and misstatements.
All this posturing when the areas that Trump does have control of, namely a national integrative plan and the tools to counter the pandemic such as tests, Personal Protective Equipment and ventilators are not being addressed comprehensively. Most irresponsibly he wasted two months of lead time by ignoring his professionals by arguing as late as three weeks ago that soon the fifteen American case score would be nil. He has only now enforced the Defense Protection Act which allows him to order production by manufactures of items that are essential to the country’s survival.
With the US case numbers and deaths having doubled every two or three days, Trump’s position changes almost with the same rapidity. Within the last twelve hours he backed off his bizarre decision to quarantine the States of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.
FLORIDA A CASE STUDY IN MADNESS
Florida is a disaster waiting to happen. They have the highest concentration of elderly in the country. Several counties have populations that have median ages over sixty - six. Governor deSanctis who with Trump’s help was one of the few that bucked the 2018 Democratic trend keeping the Governorship red. He has refused lockdown. Furthermore he welcomed the annual flood of thousands of students crowding his beaches, bars and restaurants to celebrate spring break.
Trump has lauded deSanctis’s laid back approach and his administration has cooperated with him big time. According to a Washington Post expose deSanctis received the two shipments of supplies that he asked for. This is in stark contrast to his attitude towards Governors whose criticism has angered him. He publicly instructed Vice President Pence not even to speak to the Governors of Michigan and California to the shock of anyone sane.
Now the Florida Governor believes that the problem Florida faces is that New Yorkers will flee to his state. He was the one who suggested to the POTUS the quarantine of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut which Trump promptly announced - this injunction without consultation with anybody. Not only was it impractical to say the least it was not constitutional. Ten hours later Trump withdrew his “order”. In its place he instructed the Center of Disease Control to issue a strong travel advisory in an attempt to meet Governor deSanctis needs. The Governor in the meantime has road patrols on the main highway into Florida from the North checking on passengers who may be from New York and informing them that if they come there they have to go into self quarantine. A remedy he does not apply to his own citizens even after what happened in Louisiana after their mass gathering.
The Florida Governor would be more advised to get his whole state to isolate not just the odd New Yorker that he happens to pick up on the roads. The wealth of his State depends on tourism and the literally millions, mainly New Yorkers, that retire there. The current figures for Florida are about four thousand positives with fifty - six deaths. Pretty low by current American standards. However if the Louisiana figures are anything to go by the surge will be about two weeks after the mass gathering from other parts of the country and world. No doubt he and Trump will blame New York.
CRACKS IN THE WALL .
As the days go by cracks are emerging in the brick wall of support. According to a report from National Public Radio Increasing numbers of Republicans are recognizing the seriousness of the coronavirus threat. A poll was conducted by the Public Religion Research Group who noted no statistical differences between religious or political groups. A review of polls by FiveThirtyEight, the most recognized political forecasting website, which indicated that since the beginning of March the gap between Republicans and Democrats on how serious the threat was, has been decreasing.
The Congress Legislators have been at one on the unprecedented trillion dollar relief packages which recognize the severity directly and indirectly. Directly by sending dollops of aid to first responders and their needs and secondly by trying to remedy the financial impact this will have. The Republicans have been persuaded, albeit reluctantly, that the aid should go directly to those that need it.
Trump’s attempts to open the economy have been met with horror by some of his closest allies. Lindsey Graham, sycophant in chief, warned him, “If you open the economy too early against the advice of public - health experts you will own the deaths from coronavirus that will follow”. Graham followed up his not so subtle advice to the President by underlining the danger politically both to him and the Republicans of choosing the economy and the stock market over the health of the American people. According to a Washington Post report Trump listened but did not answer Graham’s plea.
TRUMP’S POLL BOOST
Trump has bragged that his approval rating is up - higher than it has been for years. It hovers above the forty - five percent mark even in one poll reaching forty - seven. However the Governors are scoring far higher for their handling of the pandemic. The public are also ambivalent towards the POTUS as in the same poll sixty percent stated he acted too slowly. With regard to opening his economy priority the polls are not in favor, the overwhelming majority backing drastic actions to stem the tide.
Presidents’ ratings always increase in a crisis. Clinton's after the Kansas mass shooting rose to eighty percent as did George W’s after 9/11 while George HW was at ninety percent following Dessert Storm. So a three to five percent rise to under fifty percent is not a figure to plaster on campaign adverts.
AT THE END OF THE DAY
Trump will probably back down on his attempts to re open the economy, most of which the companies and the Governors closed anyway. He will continue to muddle on misleading as opposed to leading even as he belatedly applies the Defense Protection Act.
To state the obvious once again it will be the local elected representatives that will get the job done. They together with the paid civil servants will be in the forefront. It was most heartening to hear the head of the Army Engineer Corp who has finally been called on to help. He outlined how was able to build and or modify buildings to create different types of hospitals across the country, within weeks. Last but not least the front line health care personnel, the law enforcement, the grocery shelve packers and society as a whole who are displaying a grit and determination and community spirit, a great big thanks.
Trump’s first first is that he is leader of the largest outbreak of coronavirus in the Western world.
Trump will sadly learn a costly lesson that there are no blue and red viruses. He is right on with one observation - that his handling of the crisis is as perfect as his conversation was with President Zelensky of Ukraine.
Stay safe and healthy as everyone does their bit to flatten the curve.
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